1. 10-24-13 02:52 PM #1
    MD
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    Cole Miller -170

    Miller is likely going to absolutely run through Ogle, and probably KO him in the first two rounds. Ogle has some of the worst footwork in the UFC, and he can't cut the cage off well enough to consistently push Miller against it, where he has historically had the most issues on the feet. His takedowns are awful, and he only tends to shoot out of desperation once he's been tagged and things aren't going his way on the feet. For all his reputation of being a tough guy with a lot of heart, Ogle seriously can't take a punch. His chin is suspect, and he turtles up and panics whenever he gets hit. Miller is better in every single area, and Ogle's only clear route to victory is if he can somehow get Miller down and grind him out consistently enough to take the decision, but with Ogle's habit of jumping into triangles, even that isn't a safe tactic. This is a gimme fight for Miller, and Ogle is going to need to show some serious improvement to win.

    I recommend an 8u play here (assuming a 100u bankroll). Massive value.
    Points Awarded:

    Sacrelicious gave MD 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  2. 10-24-13 03:15 PM #2
    bjpenn85
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    But the hedge sucks balls...he fought a even fight with akira which isnt a bad fighter + beat grispi easily. Cole miller has a lot of loopsided fights with similar opposition. Youre selling cole miller as he is much better than andy ogle, im not sure if im bying into that. He fakkin lost to steven siler and nam fakking phan. Horrible fight iq as well. Massive value, maybe you see something i dont see. But it sure isnt massive.
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  3. 10-24-13 03:22 PM #3
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    But the hedge sucks balls...he fought a even fight with akira which isnt a bad fighter + beat grispi easily. Cole miller has a lot of loopsided fights with similar opposition. Youre selling cole miller as he is much better than andy ogle, im not sure if im bying into that. He fakkin lost to steven siler and nam fakking phan. Horrible fight iq as well. Massive value, maybe you see something i dont see. But it sure isnt massive.
    Steven Siler is a really good fighter, and Ogle doesn't have the tools that Nam Phan did. Grispi is a terrible fighter who can pretty much only win by sub in R1, which he almost did, and he only fought an "even fight" with Akira because he took him down. He rocked Akira once in R1, and other than that, was pretty much dominated on the feet. How often can he take Miller down? Manny Gamburyan had a lot of trouble with Miller's grappling, and Ogle will have much more.
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  4. 10-24-13 03:34 PM #4
    reigle9
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    8% of your br on one fight? Damn you must really like him. I'll throw him in with a cfb ml large favorite.
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  5. 10-24-13 03:49 PM #5
    bjpenn85
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    Sure, miller should win, he should outstrike ogle, but it could easily be a very close fight. But i would reconsider my harshness and breaking down some footage.
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  6. 10-24-13 03:54 PM #6
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by reigle9 View Post
    8% of your br on one fight? Damn you must really like him. I'll throw him in with a cfb ml large favorite.
    Kelly brah, Kelly.

    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Sure, miller should win, he should outstrike ogle, but it could easily be a very close fight. But i would reconsider my harshness and breaking down some footage.
    Watch Ogle's fight with Corassani and Miller's fight with Gamburyan, and that's 75% of the information you need. Miller is a better kicker than Corassani, a better puncher than Corassani, he's bigger, stronger, and maybe even faster than Corassani, and he has a ground game and doesn't gas horribly, unlike Corassani. Miller is a terrible matchup for Ogle.
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  7. 10-24-13 04:18 PM #7
    bjpenn85
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    i watched 1 round, thats all i need. Even i have better footwork than ogle. That was brutal. But miller is such an idiot..and he has ****** me before.
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  8. 10-24-13 06:16 PM #8
    Thor4140
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    Ogle is the king of the cans. If he wasn't brit he would have been gone a long time ago. If Cole loses this he should just pack his bags and find something else to do. Oh and much easier to see everyone's thoughts when the fight thread is set up like this. Fight reminds me of when he fought that stiff Junie Browning
    Last edited by Thor4140; 10-24-13 at 06:20 PM.
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  9. 10-24-13 07:03 PM #9
    Wanna Bet On It?
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    Never will I ever trust Cole Miller with a -xxx next to his name. Guy is such a low IQ fighter. Murdered me with the Siler fight when WannaDouche was just getting off the ground. Ogle does nothing to impress me but I can't fade him with the expectation that Miller beats him (or anyone at 145) >65% of the time.

    BOL MD & Cole backers. Hope he doesn't give you a penetrating ulcer that takes months to recover from...
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  10. 10-24-13 07:10 PM #10
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wanna Bet On It? View Post
    Never will I ever trust Cole Miller with a -xxx next to his name. Guy is such a low IQ fighter. Murdered me with the Siler fight when WannaDouche was just getting off the ground. Ogle does nothing to impress me but I can't fade him with the expectation that Miller beats him (or anyone at 145) >65% of the time.

    BOL MD & Cole backers. Hope he doesn't give you a penetrating ulcer that takes months to recover from...
    I loved Siler there, thought he should be a favourite. Siler's much better and bigger than Ogle, though. I think everyone's been burned once or twice betting on Miller as a favourite, and now no one wants to bet on him. Maybe I'll be in the same boat soon.
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  11. 10-24-13 07:30 PM #11
    Sykes
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    Parlay it with Arsenal for a + odds bet.
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  12. 10-24-13 07:43 PM #12
    Sacrelicious
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Miller is likely going to absolutely run through Ogle, and probably KO him in the first two rounds. Ogle has some of the worst footwork in the UFC, and he can't cut the cage off well enough to consistently push Miller against it, where he has historically had the most issues on the feet. His takedowns are awful, and he only tends to shoot out of desperation once he's been tagged and things aren't going his way on the feet. For all his reputation of being a tough guy with a lot of heart, Ogle seriously can't take a punch. His chin is suspect, and he turtles up and panics whenever he gets hit. Miller is better in every single area, and Ogle's only clear route to victory is if he can somehow get Miller down and grind him out consistently enough to take the decision, but with Ogle's habit of jumping into triangles, even that isn't a safe tactic. This is a gimme fight for Miller, and Ogle is going to need to show some serious improvement to win.

    I recommend an 8u play here (assuming a 100u bankroll). Massive value.
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  13. 10-25-13 02:53 AM #13
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    Ogle is the king of the cans. If he wasn't brit he would have been gone a long time ago. If Cole loses this he should just pack his bags and find something else to do. Oh and much easier to see everyone's thoughts when the fight thread is set up like this. Fight reminds me of when he fought that stiff Junie Browning
    THis is the most sensible thing you've ever said
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  14. 10-25-13 03:00 AM #14
    Vaughany
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    Moderate semi-hard-on on Cole @ -181

    Was going to go small semi floppy on Cole then go big shlong on Cole by Sub but I wouldnt rule out Cole dropping him with a knee in the clinch or elbow or something
    Last edited by Vaughany; 10-25-13 at 03:14 AM.
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  15. 10-25-13 08:25 AM #15
    mirinquads
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    The line is weird, do the books expect him to get a hometown decision or something? Miller brutalizes him on the feet, when Ogle tries to do his push against the fench / Takedown /please dont hit me anymore routine, he's getting chocked. The Reach / limp length advantage is staggering and Miller is leagues ahead BJJ wise.

    Miller is still really dumb though, hard to trust him with mah staxxx.
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  16. 10-25-13 08:57 AM #16
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirinquads View Post
    The line is weird, do the books expect him to get a hometown decision or something? Miller brutalizes him on the feet, when Ogle tries to do his push against the fench / Takedown /please dont hit me anymore routine, he's getting chocked. The Reach / limp length advantage is staggering and Miller is leagues ahead BJJ wise.

    Miller is still really dumb though, hard to trust him with mah staxxx.
    I guess it's just because of perceived home advantage, and over-rating a win against Josh Grispi who was once no1 contender?! The problem with Grispi is he is defeated before he even steps in the cage, especially agaisnt Ogle as wife was in hospital at the time with pregnancy complications. At least with Cole you know he can scrap and take a beating and fight back even if his IQ isnt great. Going in and choking out Palaszewki in 1st round is not easy!
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  17. 10-25-13 10:12 AM #17
    Sykes
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    Made weight but does not look the healthiest.
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  18. 10-25-13 10:45 AM #18
    goodfellas433
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirinquads View Post
    The line is weird, do the books expect him to get a hometown decision or something? Miller brutalizes him on the feet, when Ogle tries to do his push against the fench / Takedown /please dont hit me anymore routine, he's getting chocked. The Reach / limp length advantage is staggering and Miller is leagues ahead BJJ wise.

    Miller is still really dumb though, hard to trust him with mah staxxx.
    Yes, a lot of people see ogle grinding out the hometown decision here. I agree with you guys though I would be all over the Cole props here. But then again I am the ass who dropped the aldo/magalhaes parlay for a grand and then went all in on machida.
    Looking for a play to start building a bankroll...just not sure if its by ko or sub here.
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  19. 10-25-13 12:11 PM #19
    goodfellas433
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    Bad cut
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  20. 10-25-13 12:24 PM #20
    PaperTrail07
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    Little Axe is pretty much a chump...Miller is the play here agree 100%
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  21. 10-25-13 12:26 PM #21
    PaperTrail07
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    Phan is also a good natural talent...but hardly a fighter...Cole losing to him is somewhat scary
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  22. 10-25-13 12:53 PM #22
    DFW
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    I'm not a fan of either, but you guys are underrating Ogle, and overrating Cole.
    Stand up will be pretty close. Ogle has okay boxing, so does Cole./

    Wrestling goes to Ogle, and conditioning and pace as well.?

    Cole has the BJJ advantage, but Ogle's shown decent BJJ himself since training in the house.

    Will have to rewatch some fights first, but I'll be on Ogle or nobody.
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  23. 10-25-13 01:06 PM #23
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by DFW View Post
    I'm not a fan of either, but you guys are underrating Ogle, and overrating Cole.
    Stand up will be pretty close. Ogle has okay boxing, so does Cole./

    Wrestling goes to Ogle, and conditioning and pace as well.?

    Cole has the BJJ advantage, but Ogle's shown decent BJJ himself since training in the house.

    Will have to rewatch some fights first, but I'll be on Ogle or nobody.
    Ok, thanks for stopping by.
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  24. 10-25-13 04:12 PM #24
    Grabaka
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    Dont penetrating trust that puto!
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  25. 10-25-13 05:00 PM #25
    mirinquads
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    Miller straiiight outta Schindlers list, dude looks sickly
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  26. 10-26-13 02:00 AM #26
    DSSCA
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    Miller will put him on the end of his jab all night and out grapple him. In a scramble Miller is longer and more experienced on the ground. @ -170 Miller is a gift. Should be closer to -280. Hometown means nothing in this situation. All it does is get you amped before the fight. Then you eat a few jabs and it doesn't matter where the fight is, you don't hear anything in there anyways.
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  27. 10-26-13 03:50 AM #27
    Vaughany
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    Admits it was a tough cut but seems like he feels fine now

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  28. 10-26-13 04:00 AM #28
    DSSCA
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    Where did you find this?
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  29. 10-26-13 04:01 AM #29
    DSSCA
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    And wtf did you search? Haha
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  30. 10-26-13 04:10 AM #30
    Vaughany
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    all about the details bud!

    or he just posted it on his twitter!
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  31. 10-26-13 04:11 AM #31
    Vaughany
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    Also if you just type in "Cole Miller" on youtube and sort by upload date! simple tricks of the trade fellaz
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  32. 10-26-13 04:38 AM #32
    Das Jax
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Admits it was a tough cut but seems like he feels fine now
    I'll look past the crotch dribble. He seems like a good dude.
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  33. 10-26-13 04:43 AM #33
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Das Jax View Post
    I'll look past the crotch dribble. He seems like a good dude.
    he was just really happy to of made weight!

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  34. 10-26-13 04:59 AM #34
    DFW
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    What's your Sherdog name MD?
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  35. 10-26-13 06:02 AM #35
    Das Jax
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    ...
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