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Velasquez -190
The return of the thread play.
I suppose I understand the rationale of why the line is so close. As some of you will remember, I was big on Velasquez in their second fight. I hadn't started posting actively here at the time of their first fight, but I was pretty big on him then, also. I 'capped him at around -240 in their first fight, -330 in their second fight, and I'm settling around -320 in this fight. Breakdown isn't really necessary, as it's a pretty simple fight to 'cap, but I dislike "bet dis, guiz" threads, so I'll do a short one.
The biggest factor in this fight, as most of you are aware, is that Dos Santos has shown to fight poorly off of the back foot; it's become very clear in his recent fights that he gets more and more effective and, especially, diverse as he becomes more comfortable. In the Hunt fight, he had trouble with Hunt's pressure often; there were multiple occasions where Hunt was able to rush Dos Santos into the fence and, once there, his defence was lacking. Once Hunt began to slow down, he increased his accuracy and effectiveness tremendously; as much heart as he has, he really is a frontrunner, as he needs to be winning pretty handily to fight at his best. His best attributes show themselves when the fight is at a pace that he is comfortable with.
As good a striker as he is, he has an awful habit of backing straight up, and his head movement isn't enough to make up for this deficit. He gets credit as a fighter who makes good use of angles, but it's become more obvious with time that he only utilizes angles well while going forward.
I will say that I believe Junior when he talks about the medical issues he had during the last fight, and I will also say that I think Junior's cardio is underrated and some of the best in the division. The fact of the matter is, though, that he simply hasn't had enough time to make up for the obvious deficits in his game which cost him his title. He's obviously a better striker than Velasquez, but it doesn't really matter at this point. Were it not for the unknowns of how Junior will perform, I'd be far more confident in Velasquez, but I'm taking the conservative route.; AKA isn't a camp that makes adjustments well, either, and I don't expect to see Velasquez with many new tools, especially on the feet.
One worrying issue that I saw in the Hunt fight which I had not seen before is that when Hunt cut angles on Dos Santos when he had him near the cage, Dos Santos turned his hips towards Hunt before adjusting and rotating to face him. This is a terrible mistake, as it leaves you in a position where defending a takedown is very difficult, throwing a powerful punch is barely possible, and you have to reposition to take an offensive stance. Velasquez isn't great at cutting angles in his striking, but he does it frequently in his wrestling, and puts himself into similar positions often when his takedowns are stuffed. I'll also say that I think Dos Santos had a lot of issues fighting without a big speed advantage. He was getting tagged with jabs constantly in round one of their second fight because he was expecting to be off centre by the time it landed.
I think that one of the few new tools he may show is an increased willingness to go for submissions. He sort of gave up trying to stop Junior with strikes in their second fight, likely to preserve energy; if he finishes him with strikes, it'll probably be in the first two rounds I think. I really like the submission prop here. I think there's still some value at +534, but not much; I expected it to open around +600, and I 'capped it at around +300.
Anyway, I was going to do a more detailed breakdown, as there are some more small things I noticed that could have a big impact on the fight, but I have some stuff I need to get done. Velasquez -190 is the play.
rocky16 gave MD 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
