1. #1
    SBR Lou
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    Predicting Mayweather by KO against Canelo Alvarez

    I'm coming out of retirement for this play ... at the SBR book of course. As an aside, I read an excellent article on SBR.com on the Mayweather vs Alvarez match, and couldn't have written it better myself.

    But here's what leads me to believe Floyd by stoppage is the play:

    • Floyd Mayweather wins the most convincingly when the odds are close and when people expect he's met his match. He also kicks the shit out of fellow undefeated boxers.


    • He is already at 152 lbs and does not need to dehydrate himself to make weight. His conditioning is superior in every way.


    • Alvarez weighed in 5.5 lbs over the limit seven days out from the fight. He will be noticeably slower against Mayweather and the excess pounds he packs on will not help him in any way. He is expected to come in over 170 lbs.


    • Alvarez turned Pro at 15 in Mexico and 33 of his 42 victories came in Mexico. Throw out his W against an old Shane Mosley (on Floyd's undercard no less) and the only win of note was against Austin Trout. He was gifted a wide UD when the bout was fairly close. The kid is being built up and has never fought a true proven champion.


    • Alvarez was gassed halfway through his last fight. He took rounds off. As soon as he tires against Mayweather he is going to get hurt badly and cut. Alvarez is also somewhat flat-footed.


    • Mayweather has the best trainer in boxing in his corner in his father. His father, while a defensive wizard, is more offensive minded than he's given credit for, look no further than his pushing Mickey Bey to attempt a stoppage despite being up on the cards in his last bout.


    • Floyd Mayweather destroys Mexican boxers. He hurt his hand against Guerrero, but he owns Mexicans, period.


    • Mayweather is savvy enough to know that he can't fight a cautious fight - he must dominate and let his hands go. Alvarez is De la Hoya/Golden Boy's superstar of the future, and Floyd's only split decision win of his career came against former Golden Boy himself, De la Hoya. He absolutely wants to close the show in emphatic fashion and take this out of the judges hands.

    As for those of you betting the moneyline, don't waste your money on Alvarez. The only fighter who can truly give Floyd trouble is one that fights and moves like himself. A guy that can for a period of 12 rounds move, get off first by beating him to the punch, control the middle of the ring, work off the ropes if he needs to ... essentially, someone built like himself with impeccable defense. He's absolutely not going to taste defeat to the likes of some big muscular, stationary, flat-footed 23 year old. This is the easiest fight he has had in years, do not believe the hype.

    That's all I'll go into. Study the tapes, the answer is right in front of you.

    Mayweather by KO: 5/1 at Bet365

    (Note: pinnacle hung 6.4/1 and then dropped to 4/1, but limit is low currently.)
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  2. #2
    eidolon
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    I don't see mayweather knocking a guy out that weighs 25lbs more than him.
    It will be a good fight the first 5 or 6 rounds, then cinnamon head will be tired and look like a statue.
    175 pts

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  3. #3
    crustyme
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    lol

    canelo wins.

  4. #4
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by eidolon View Post
    I don't see mayweather knocking a guy out that weighs 25lbs more than him.
    It will be a good fight the first 5 or 6 rounds, then cinnamon head will be tired and look like a statue.
    All that weight does is make him an even slower target to be put on his ass and cut like a WWE wrestler. Remember that the 23-year-old has never been punched in the face repeatedly by someone of Mayweather's class.

    By KO/TKO/DQ is the play. It's not going the distance.

  5. #5
    The Kraken
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    Gutsy call Lou

    He barely KO'ed a smaller Ortiz, with a free hook. Guy has never been a power puncher. He's the most technical boxer ever and out points guys, but not powerful.

    You know this. You follow boxing as much as anyone here.

  6. #6
    King Mayan
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    Unrealz

  7. #7
    The Kraken
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    We need more Lou

  8. #8
    King Mayan
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    Lou es buena gente

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  9. #9
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    He barely KO'ed a smaller Ortiz, with a free hook. Guy has never been a power puncher. He's the most technical boxer ever and out points guys, but not powerful.

    You know this. You follow boxing as much as anyone here.
    And in boxing you have to pick your spots. By decision has historically been a money play on Floyd, but this is as good a spot as any and pays much more than it would against someone he'd be expected to KO like Amir Khan. It's about getting the best of it. This kid can't go the distance with Floyd. He's never, ever, ever faced a challenge like this. He practically had enough in the tank to dismiss Austin Trout, for penetrate's sake!
    Quote Originally Posted by King Mayan View Post
    Unrealz
    Sorry bro but he knocks the piss out of Mexican boxers. Hell it runs in the family, Roger Mayweather ("The Mexican Assassin") did too before being vanquished by Julio Cesar Chavez.

  10. #10
    crustyme
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    stick to running scam books and leave the capping to the professionals.


  11. #11
    The Kraken
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    What scam book did Lou run?

  12. #12
    hougigo
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    Did I miss something with Lou?
    Anyway, bar whatever did happen, dude called the Garcia KOing Khan and Marquez koing Pac.

    Me personally I think Mayweather KO 10, but I'm rocking with the safer option in Mayweather spread

  13. #13
    CoachJB
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    Quote Originally Posted by eidolon View Post
    I don't see mayweather knocking a guy out that weighs 25lbs more than him.
    It will be a good fight the first 5 or 6 rounds, then cinnamon head will be tired and look like a statue.
    Quote Originally Posted by crustyme View Post
    stick to running scam books and leave the capping to the professionals.


  14. #14
    Deuce
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    Here you go Lou. Take a peek. This guy has a clue. Almost 100% of his points are legit.


  15. #15
    raydog
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    lou worried about limits at pinnacle unreal ... it doesnt really matter where you throw this money away anyways...floyd hasnt had a legit tko/ko since he mangled that cokehead ginger, hatton...

  16. #16
    GunShard
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    You were right about Pac Man being KO'ed.

  17. #17
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Here you go Lou. Take a peek. This guy has a clue. Almost 100% of his points are legit.

    Fukkin' jerk off whose wearing his dad's glasses, talking into a ceiling nanny cam?

    He made one point...Mayweather hand picks his opponents. He hand picked Alvarez for a reason. Kid is not in his prime...not even close. Vegas sharps 6 months ago saying Canelo was not at Floyd's level and they needed to bring him along slowly. 2 years at least before he fought the elite. Mayweather picking the kid off early. Mayweather by the cards.

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  18. #18
    SBR_John
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    Unless Canelo has a glass jaw there will be no ko. Mayweather has proven all he wants to do is throw a couple of punches each round, get the decision and get some action down on football. He doesn't care about proving anything, he doesn't want to take any chances. Expect another typical boring fight where he easily out points Canelo and everyone is reminded 'why do I buy these boring-ass Mayweather fights?!'.

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  19. #19
    broadway6
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR_John View Post
    Unless Canelo has a glass jaw there will be no ko. Mayweather has proven all he wants to do is throw a couple of punches each round, get the decision and get some action down on football. He doesn't care about proving anything, he doesn't want to take any chances. Expect another typical boring fight where he easily out points Canelo and everyone is reminded 'why do I buy these boring-ass Mayweather fights?!'.
    Ding ding, we have a winner. I quit buying mayweather fights a long time ago because of this. I will pass.

  20. #20
    Hilljacademics
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    Quote Originally Posted by crustyme View Post
    lol

    canelo wins.
    What he said. A cinnamon decision.

  21. #21
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by raydog View Post
    lou worried about limits at pinnacle unreal ...
    I think you misunderstood, they were taking $300 (yes, $300) max on that particular market at the time. So the great price had somewhat of an asterisk next to it.

  22. #22
    RubberKettle
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    Lou is smart about boxing. This play or nothing for me

  23. #23
    zooom
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    lou you dont know shit about boxing, i hope you lose your bet.

  24. #24
    King Mayan
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR_John View Post
    Unless Canelo has a glass jaw there will be no ko. Mayweather has proven all he wants to do is throw a couple of punches each round, get the decision and get some action down on football. He doesn't care about proving anything, he doesn't want to take any chances. Expect another typical boring fight where he easily out points Canelo and everyone is reminded 'why do I buy these boring-ass Mayweather fights?!'.

  25. #25
    zooom
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    mayweather is the biggest pussy out there, never takes chances, doesnt have the heart of a warrior. just another rich....
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  26. #26
    Rubber Guard
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    Lou, would you suck on Mayweather's balls for VIP passes to a 50 cent concert?

  27. #27
    BennyBigNuts
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    No chance Floyd risks getting knocked out by opening up and going for a knockout himself.
    He dances his way to a win here by decision.
    He doesn't risk his legacy anymore by going all out.
    Now, if they offered him a 20 million bonus to knock him out tacked onto his 41 million he's already getting, it would be totally different.
    5/1 is horrible value.

  28. #28
    TheRifleman
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  29. #29
    mirinquads
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    Mayweather aint opening up against his kinda power, unless Canelo is so gassed he cant stand up, and even then its doubtful.

    Though he certainly could Ko him.

  30. #30
    BIGDAY
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    Lou, don't fuk me man... I've got kids to feed.

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  31. #31
    ChalkyDog
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    Falling in love with Canelo right now.

    I don't follow boxing, even moderately. However, I have been on the right side more often than not on some classic shenanigan matches.

    This one screams the front end of a HUGE money grab.

    Money is getting up there, we'll see if he values his legacy over hundreds of millions of dollars.

  32. #32
    Jaug
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    Putting a unit on it +411.

  33. #33
    Deuce
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    $75 for ppv.

    Pass, Mexican Blake Griffin in a decision.

  34. #34
    rocky16
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    Lou is trolling.

  35. #35
    rocky16
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    Adding 1.5 units Canelo.

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