[THE_LOCKSMITH]

MAIN CARD (FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET)
Mauricio Rua vs. Chael Sonnen
Travis Browne vs. Alistair Overeem
Yuri Alcantara vs. Urijah Faber
Matt Brown vs. Mike Pyle
Uriah Hall vs. John Howard
Michael Johnson vs. Joe Lauzon

PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, 6 p.m. ET)
Michael McDonald vs. Brad Pickett
Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor
Mike Brown vs. Steven Siler
Diego Brandao vs. Daniel Pineda

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Manny Gamburyan vs. Cole Miller
Cody Donovan vs. Ovince St. Preux
Ramsey Nijem vs. James Vick

[Beelzebubzy]

On Faber thus far

[DSSCA]

Anyone care to discuss Holloway vs. McGregor? I still need to watch more footage on McGregor, but Holloway has been improving much of late and his striking was very diversified against Bermudez. I feel that Holloway was completely robbed in that fight and should have taken home the W, because of that we are seeing him greatly undervalued. I could be wrong, I'm aware but right now that is what I am seeing. I'm sure there are a few guys on here that know McGregor well. How is his grappling? Is he a better wrestler than Bermudez? Like I said, I still need to look more into it before I play anything. Just thought I would open up discussion on it.

[Grabaka]

I would say (without tape watching) that value is still on Connor but im not playing it probably. Connor has a better ground game and more explosive striking. Holloway isnt this one punch KO guy really IMO and that would mean for me that Connor will be able to mix it up or starch him.

[Vaughany]

Anyone care to discuss Holloway vs. McGregor? I still need to watch more footage on McGregor, but Holloway has been improving much of late and his striking was very diversified against Bermudez. I feel that Holloway was completely robbed in that fight and should have taken home the W, because of that we are seeing him greatly undervalued. I could be wrong, I'm aware but right now that is what I am seeing. I'm sure there are a few guys on here that know McGregor well. How is his grappling? Is he a better wrestler than Bermudez? Like I said, I still need to look more into it before I play anything. Just thought I would open up discussion on it.

Only way Holloway wins this is by out-pointing McGregor IMO. Especially seeing as it's in Boston and McGregor is going to be pumped up by Pro-Irish crowd, I find it hard to imagine him losing, let alone getting finished. Holloway is no joke tho and looks better everytime he fights, and is a much tougher fight IMO than Ogle who pussied out because he split up with his GF or some shiit!

I think McGregor might want to show off his ground game in this one tho, we shouldnt forget that he comes from a camp in SBG that is more geared towards grappling with a head-coach like John Kavanagh who is a pure BJJ guy. Plus he trains with more elite grapplers or at least more grappling orientated guys then he does strikers, with fighters like Pendred, Gunnar Nelson, Patrick Holohan, Owen Roddy, etc...
Obviously with him coming off a big KO and fighting in front of rowdy drunken Irish fans he may get swept up in wanting to get another KOTN bonus!

[gabe]

I would disagree that Holloway looks better every time he fights. I mean, Leonard Garcia kicked his ass...

[Vaughany]

I would disagree that Holloway looks better every time he fights. I mean, Leonard Garcia kicked his ass...

Considering he took the fight on 10 days notice I think he did ok against a much more experienced opponent who'd had a full training camp. In terms of his grappling he's definitely showed improvement in every fight, the Holloway that fought Poirier would of probably been subbed by Garcia! He had no idea how to defend a submission at that point. Then against Bermudez after a proper camp he looked a lot better than previously

[Beelzebubzy]

Devils advocate
he should show improvements. He is like 21 years old. His body and muscles are still forming.

This is short notice here as well. But I don't think conor will b able to take him down as easily as poorer did. Plus, I think conor would want to have a fire fight. As twitter Shows, he is the new Dana company man, I don't think joe silva would hurt one of his boys without givin him a favorable matchup during the buildup phase. Plus ufc always needs European marketing.

I have play on conor parlayed with jones and Benavidez at evens. And one other parlay I can't recall.

[bjpenn85]

How many times do people who the ufc "pushes" loose? It doesnt happen often. If we were to make a rule, and categorise this bet under UFC PUSH, only based on being in that category, you shoudl blindly make a bet.

[omalley21]

I hope they stand and bang. Thats the fight I most want to see on the card.

[mirinquads]

Holloway is not going to enjoy the reach advantage he usually does, fighting a southpaw and Conors striking is just beautiful to watch, cuts angles really well, and sharp footwork. He did get hit a bit in his previous fight, but i'm not too worried there, chin is solid and Holloway isn't a power puncher by any stretch. This is some fairly favourable matchmaking for uncle Danas new favorite. There is not much value in the line though, might throw him in a long retard parlay.

Might even post it when it hits and piss off all the mathematicians in here.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

next up on the docket

[Luca Fury]

Looks like a great card for viewing and betting. Looking forward to it.

[The iron sheik]

Perhaps Overeem will be the guy for me that I continuously overvalue and bury money on, but I really see tremendous value in him even after the Silva fiasco.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Holloway won't last against Mcgregor

[On2TheNext1]

Yeah, heavy on McGregor between -200 thru -280, in a bunch of parlays as well.

As others have said I think he'll outclass Holloway with his footwork, ability to cut angles, striking accuracy, and he has heavier hands. I wish his defense was a lil better, but he's got a good chin and stays calm in the pocket, never gets wild/desperate. If ITD and T/KO props should open +$ I'll bet/parlay them pretty heavily too.

I'm leaning towards Reem currently as well.

Im curious what you guys think about Alcantara/Faber? I think the o2.5rds is safer and feel like Alcantara is a live dog.

Not confident on anything with Sonnen/Rua.

[more_betterness]

Put two units on Sonnen when he hit +110, and am considering more if it gets down near evens again. Rua's TDD is absolute garbage. Hes always a threat early but I don't think his spotty cardio stands up to Sonnen's pace. His defensive footwork and headmovement have pretty much become nonexistent as well, covering up and backing straight up when under pressure plays right into Sonnen's game. Shogun's ground game is what is keeping me away from betting this fight heavier, as his half guard sweeps and transitions to leg locks are still fantastic.

[JustinOpinion]

Yeah, heavy on McGregor between -200 thru -280, in a bunch of parlays as well.

As others have said I think he'll outclass Holloway with his footwork, ability to cut angles, striking accuracy, and he has heavier hands. I wish his defense was a lil better, but he's got a good chin and stays calm in the pocket, never gets wild/desperate. If ITD and T/KO props should open +$ I'll bet/parlay them pretty heavily too.

In UK -

ITD - 4/7 (-175)
KO - 8/11 (-137.50)

Ladbrokes.

[mmaed]

Anyone know anything about Reem's training camp? I am a little worried about betting on him after his last fight post fight drug test. He tested low for testosterone. It might be worthwhile to wait until weigh ins to see what he looks like.

[Beelzebubzy]

Blackzilians? They lose except Ryan jimmo and rumble

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Yeah, heavy on McGregor between -200 thru -280, in a bunch of parlays as well.

As others have said I think he'll outclass Holloway with his footwork, ability to cut angles, striking accuracy, and he has heavier hands. I wish his defense was a lil better, but he's got a good chin and stays calm in the pocket, never gets wild/desperate. If ITD and T/KO props should open +$ I'll bet/parlay them pretty heavily too.

I'm leaning towards Reem currently as well.

Im curious what you guys think about Alcantara/Faber? I think the o2.5rds is safer and feel like Alcantara is a live dog.

Not confident on anything with Sonnen/Rua.

Connor @ -200 was the time to load up. Hopefully the dental problems he's been having won't lead to any infections or interfere with his training camp. As far as Ubereem. If he has not been able to get his T levels back up to at least normal levels then he might be in for a long night. Pre fight photos would be extremely helpful. I believe Faber should be around -200. -280 is a bit pricey as Alcantara is a very live dog. I am staying away from the Sonnen/Rua match. Good luck with the McGregor play.

[ShogunRua]

I will destroy Chael Sonnen.

That is all.

[On2TheNext1]

Still, Reem was kicking Silva's ass for 2+rds with those low T levels. I'm not worried so much with is he the old action figure looking Reem, but rather if he'll fight smarter, less arrogant, more careful, and put away the mf'er when he has the chance.

[hobbesITD]

Overeem's at Mike's Gym.

Pretty sure they don't let you get in the ring there without roiding up.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Still, Reem was kicking Silva's ass for 2+rds with those low T levels. I'm not worried so much with is he the old action figure looking Reem, but rather if he'll fight smarter, less arrogant, more careful, and put away the mf'er when he has the chance.

Well those are factors as well, no doubt. However, I can tell you first hand that having elevated T levels can make a world of difference physically, intellectually, & psychologically. I would feel much better placing my hard earned $ on an elevated Ubereem instead of the man who fought Big Foot.

[sideloaded]

Shogod hanging with Hayley, #teamprettywhitegirls WHAT A BOSS




Hayley is a HUGE shogod fan! I thought she was cute before, but now I love her, I too have a crush on shogun

Ok... So I didn't dream it. Shogun tweeted me last night. *dead* @shogunrua

-Hayley

[mmaed]

Well those are factors as well, no doubt. However, I can tell you first hand that having elevated T levels can make a world of difference physically, intellectually, & psychologically. I would feel much better placing my hard earned $ on an elevated Ubereem instead of the man who fought Big Foot.

Both are a serious concern. I think the previous knockout will probably erase the cockiness from him but his T levels can still be a joke. My understanding of Testoserone is that if you supplement it for a long time and go off your levels become very low. It sounds like this is what Overeem did. They can come back though, it just takes a long time. He also had over a year layoff in that last fight. He should look much better in this one. Travis Browne packs a big punch though. I think Reem is worth a bet but I don't want to put the farm it.

[mmaed]

I really like Michael Mcdonald to beat Brad Pickett. His standup is better than Pickett and his takedown defense is solid. MTB can probably take Siler down fairly easily. Siler has a good guard though. I am tempted to bet Mcgregor but Holloway is turning out to be a really solid fighter. He is one dimensional though and I feel like Mcgregor is can mix it up if he wants. Not to mention he is probably the much better striker. Uriah Hall should dominate John Howard. Faber should be able to take down Yuri, Hacran was able to do it easily. My main problem now is most of my bankroll is frickin gone.

[mirinquads]

I want to know if Reem is going to be on TRT for this fight. Anyway to find out?

[sideloaded]

I want to know if Reem is going to be on TRT for this fight. Anyway to find out?

drink his piss

[PunisherIND]

drink his piss

[Beelzebubzy]

@Fightnomics: I'm already cranking #UFConFS1 fight night stats. Just learned Shogun Rua only has 34% takedown defense. Yikes. Might be important @sonnench

[mmaed]

Amyone remember mark coleman taking him down at will?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Amyone remember mark coleman taking him down at will?

I remember like it happened yesterday.

[sideloaded]

All this talk about shoguns tdd being horrid. I agree. But shogun also has the best sweeps in mma. Sonenn is no Jon Jones on the ground. Easy fight for shogun. Even trained his cardio this time.