1. #1
    El Nino
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    Parlay Winner for the Boys UFC 162

    Parlay Cub Swanson (-230) with Gabe Gonzaga (-235) 1u wins 1.04u

    Lines are BookMaker, you can prob find better at DSI. 5Dimes reduced wouldn't allow a parlay right now.

    I also like the prop Gonzaga by Sub (+160) 5Dimes. Herman showed poor sub defense in his last fight and continues to taunt Brazilians that Jiu Jitsu is ineffective (in an ironic joking stoner way). Herman always seems to be more interested in weed than fighting. I expect this to be his last fight in the UFC. He will come out swinging for the first 3 minutes or so and fade. Gonzaga will look to shoot for the take down from the starts. I expect he scores enough take downs and spends enough time on the mat that he will win by sub.

    Cub Swanson is on a tear and looking for his title shot. He's won four straight fights and has finished 3 of those four fights with impressive KO's/TKO's. Siver is a tough opponent but he hasn't done anything really special since his spinning body kick KO's. He started as a welterweight and has now cut down two divisions to featherweight. He's 2-0 since he dropped down. He's lost a little of his power and picked up some cardio. I can see this fight going the distance with Cub picking Siver apart and landing the occasional power shot. I can also see Cub taking the fight to the ground and possibly getting a sub. Cub has the kind of style that is aggressive and pressing, if it does go to the cards, I see him getting the nod.

    Enjoy the fights!

    Points Awarded:

    muldoon gave El Nino 100 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    MD
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    Wut? Herman showed poor sub defence in his last fight? What fight were you watching?

    Just because someone gets subbed doesn't mean they have poor sub defence.

  3. #3
    Vaughany
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    Go big on Lisicki fellaz! Ca$$$hmonayyyyyyyyyyyyy!

  4. #4
    Sykes
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    I thought he should of been sacked after his last fight, it was god awful if I remember correctly, Gonzaga did seem to have the fire back leading up to his last one, im leaning for Gonzaga too. FWIW though I think im going to parlay most of my bets with Edgar/Barboza.

  5. #5
    Vaughany
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    Gonzaga has been saying he wants to show off his striking and again tho as that is what the fans want to see

  6. #6
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Gonzaga has been saying he wants to show off his striking and again tho as that is what the fans want to see
    Well, they are drawing and quartering soccer refs and putting their fukkin' heads on pikes...Maybe Gabe gets inspired and goes head hunting.


  7. #7
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Go big on Lisicki fellaz! Ca$$$hmonayyyyyyyyyyyyy!
    Scratch tht, bartoli live big!

  8. #8
    goodfellas433
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    Set or game bro

  9. #9
    Vaughany
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    Match!

  10. #10
    Vaughany
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    312098838-1
    2 6:41am 6-Jul-13 6:10am 6-Jul-13 Tennis
    Match Odds S. Lisicki vs M. Bartoli for Match. -201 500.00 248.76 Pending

    Saved my ass there, had 200 on Lisicki as last leg of parlay with murray, and djokovic from yesterday. Complete bottle job by lisicki tho

  11. #11
    John Bugara
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    I'm against you on this one. I threw about a unit and a half on herman against gabe straight up. I think gabe's far past his best days and while herman could easily penetrate this up I think his wrestling and natural athleticism should be enough to keep the fight standing. From their he will hit gabe and gabe will wilt.

    Swanson's legit though i have 2.5 units parlayed on him, frankie, and andy. pays 1.5-1.

  12. #12
    Crassus
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    I actually love Herman at + odds. Gonzaga looked like garbage against a somehow more garbage looking Ben Rothwell. Herman might be my second biggest bet of the night in all honesty.

  13. #13
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    I actually love Herman at + odds. Gonzaga looked like garbage against a somehow more garbage looking Ben Rothwell. Herman might be my second biggest bet of the night in all honesty.
    Hope your biggest isn't Gracie.

    I actually like Herman at around +200 here, too. Horribly undervalued. Gabriel Gonzaga couldn't beat some of those players talk retards 67% of the time.

  14. #14
    baconbets
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    herman ML or ITD or TKO has good value here. pretty much anyone that has touched gonzaga in the face has wobbled and then beaten him. herman has a gunslinger style, so he wont look perfect doing it, but he will want to get to gonzaga and can do it. gonzaga'a grappling will just make herman want to use his wrestling even less than he already does.

  15. #15
    Vaughany
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    yeah two flaky guys, obviously Gonzaga has the grappling edge but I'd probably play Herman if I had to

  16. #16
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Hope your biggest isn't Gracie.

    I actually like Herman at around +200 here, too. Horribly undervalued. Gabriel Gonzaga couldn't beat some of those players talk retards 67% of the time.
    Haha it's not, Gracies less than a 1.2U bet. My biggest bet on the card is probably Siver, he's like a 3U bet for me.

    Liking a lot of the dogs on this card...reminds me of UFC on Fox: Shogun vs Gus maybe I'll rethink these.

  17. #17
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    Haha it's not, Gracies less than a 1.2U bet. My biggest bet on the card is probably Siver, he's like a 3U bet for me.

    Liking a lot of the dogs on this card...reminds me of UFC on Fox: Shogun vs Gus maybe I'll rethink these.
    Jesus! Why the confidence in Siver? I don't give him any advantages.

    We end up in positions like this a lot, where I see a clear bet with great value, and you see the same thing on the other side. I can't understand why you like Gracie here at all, but I'm sure you feel the same about Kennedy. Perspective is a funny thing I find.

  18. #18
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Jesus! Why the confidence in Siver? I don't give him any advantages.

    We end up in positions like this a lot, where I see a clear bet with great value, and you see the same thing on the other side. I can't understand why you like Gracie here at all, but I'm sure you feel the same about Kennedy. Perspective is a funny thing I find.
    Yeah, it's interesting. I do understand why you like Kennedy, I completely understand I just don't put as much value into certain aspects as you do, like Kennedy's wrestling or Rogers strength. Honestly though I like it, sometimes I get caught up on a match-up and when smart people are on the other side I either don't bet or limit the amount. I think of it as a "here's what you think your edge is, 1/8th kelly that and if the guys on SBR disagree or make some valid points, 1/12th that SOB"

    I think Siver is hugely undervalued, he doesn't have the power of Cub but he's an interesting striker with good power and he's looked great at 145. He's enormous, and I don't think Cub can take him down so it'll be a standing fight. Arguably, Cub is a big favorite because in addition to having a comparable stand-up game even better but is a much better ground fighter. Going off my assumption that Cub can't take Siver down it's gonna be a kickboxing match. With that said, I don't think Cub is a 2:1 favorite in a kickboxing match.

  19. #19
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    Yeah, it's interesting. I do understand why you like Kennedy, I completely understand I just don't put as much value into certain aspects as you do, like Kennedy's wrestling or Rogers strength. Honestly though I like it, sometimes I get caught up on a match-up and when smart people are on the other side I either don't bet or limit the amount. I think of it as a "here's what you think your edge is, 1/8th kelly that and if the guys on SBR disagree or make some valid points, 1/12th that SOB"

    I think Siver is hugely undervalued, he doesn't have the power of Cub but he's an interesting striker with good power and he's looked great at 145. He's enormous, and I don't think Cub can take him down so it'll be a standing fight. Arguably, Cub is a big favorite because in addition to having a comparable stand-up game even better but is a much better ground fighter. Going off my assumption that Cub can't take Siver down it's gonna be a kickboxing match. With that said, I don't think Cub is a 2:1 favorite in a kickboxing match.
    The biggest factors in the Kennedy fight for me are Kennedy's fight IQ and his cardio. I think that a guy with athleticism, strength, speed, cardio and a game plan is the worst fight for Gracie. Gracie is a boss, and I think people don't realize exactly how much potential to be great he has. He's got a lot of learning potential, and a lot of room to grow, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top ten if he continues to improve and dedicate himself to MMA (and I do like his attitude as far as MMA is concerned).

    At this point, though, he has so many holes and he's fighting a guy who can exploit those holes better than almost anyone. There are guys at 185 better than Tim Kennedy, but how many are smarter than Tim Kennedy? How many train with a better camp than Greg Jackson's? I don't even think this fight is particularly close. I don't believe that Gracie can take down Kennedy and hold him down, especially not long enough to get a sub, and the cardio edge is huge. Kennedy should be -300 I think.

    As far as Siver goes, I think Cub's natural athleticism, speed and cardio justify his price.
    Points Awarded:

    Crassus gave MD 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  20. #20
    Ron_Paul_2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sykes View Post
    I thought he should of been sacked after his last fight, it was god awful if I remember correctly, Gonzaga did seem to have the fire back leading up to his last one, im leaning for Gonzaga too. FWIW though I think im going to parlay most of my bets with Edgar/Barboza.
    No Pierce?

  21. #21
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    The biggest factors in the Kennedy fight for me are Kennedy's fight IQ and his cardio. I think that a guy with athleticism, strength, speed, cardio and a game plan is the worst fight for Gracie. Gracie is a boss, and I think people don't realize exactly how much potential to be great he has. He's got a lot of learning potential, and a lot of room to grow, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top ten if he continues to improve and dedicate himself to MMA (and I do like his attitude as far as MMA is concerned).

    At this point, though, he has so many holes and he's fighting a guy who can exploit those holes better than almost anyone. There are guys at 185 better than Tim Kennedy, but how many are smarter than Tim Kennedy? How many train with a better camp than Greg Jackson's? I don't even think this fight is particularly close. I don't believe that Gracie can take down Kennedy and hold him down, especially not long enough to get a sub, and the cardio edge is huge. Kennedy should be -300 I think.

    As far as Siver goes, I think Cub's natural athleticism, speed and cardio justify his price.
    All definite reasons I'm not as confident on Roger as I was before we started debating it. I still believe he's improved more than you're thinking in this training camp and we'll see an excellent Roger and a sub, but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't haha. We'll see come fight night!

  22. #22
    BIGDAY
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    GL!

  23. #23
    chabooky386
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    both guys lines dropped... locked in the bets already. BOL EL NINO

  24. #24
    El Nino
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    Herman Coming to an AZ Casino near you!

  25. #25
    El Nino
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  26. #26
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Herman Coming to an AZ Casino near you!
    lol dude is a clown, lets hope we never see him again in UFC!

    Good shiit with the parlay cuz

  27. #27
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    lol dude is a clown, lets hope we never see him again in UFC!

    Good shiit with the parlay cuz
    #Winnerzevenonabadnumber

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