[gabe]

Edson Barboza -450 MAX BET

Tim Kennedy -150 BIG

Dave Herman +220 Value bet, this fight is a coin-flip in my eyes.

Parlay Barboza with Kennedy big, with Herman small, and with Frankie Edgar big.

Main plays: Barboza and Kennedy

Others: Herman and Edgar


Notes on other fights:

I lean Andrew Craig over Leben but wouldn't bet it. I see value in Mitchell +280 over Pierce, but wouldn't bet that, either. Mitchell should be +180 to +200, not +280. Good value there, but not enough for me to recommend a bet. Herman, on the other hand, I cap -115 to +115, nowhere near +220 so that's worth recommending.

Good luck!!

[MD]

With you for the most part, but value on Mitchell? No way he beats Pierce 35% of the time in my opinion. Pierce is perpetually underrated but it's easy to see how ridiculously overmatched most welterweights are against him.

[Beelzebubzy]

I just don get the logic in not playin +280 If you think it should be +180

ik on pierce

[gabe]

I just don get the logic in not playin +280 If you think it should be +180

ik on pierce

Mitchell is +280 but I think he loses more often than not.

Herman is +220 but I think he wins half the time.

If you can't see why I think one is worth a risk and the other is not, then I am sorry.

If I was in a gambling mood, I'd bet Mitchell, but trying to bet smart.

[gabe]

With you for the most part, but value on Mitchell? No way he beats Pierce 35% of the time in my opinion. Pierce is perpetually underrated but it's easy to see how ridiculously overmatched most welterweights are against him.

Pierce shouldn't be that big of a favorite against anyone. He beat Paul Bradley by split decision. Aaron Simpson was kicking his ass until a lucky KO. Seth Baczynski could have beat him if he actually tried to fight instead of treating it like a sparring session. Pierce should win most of the time, but no way he should be that big a favorite, especially against a guy like Mitchell who you can't count out.

[Grabaka]

Best of luck Gabes....I dont see the value on Mitchell either but w/e. Good call not playing it. I just think the strength is gonna play too much for Pierce and Mitchell will get ragdolled even if he has some skills.

[Grabaka]

Im a huge Pierce backer and fan tho.

[MD]

Pierce shouldn't be that big of a favorite against anyone. He beat Paul Bradley by split decision. Aaron Simpson was kicking his ass until a lucky KO. Seth Baczynski could have beat him if he actually tried to fight instead of treating it like a sparring session. Pierce should win most of the time, but no way he should be that big a favorite, especially against a guy like Mitchell who you can't count out.

He also lost to Hendricks and Koscheck by split decision, and I had him winning both fights. He gassed in the Baczynski fight for some reason but Mitchell doesn't have the cardio Baczynski does, or even the cardio that Pierce does. I just don't see how he wins. He probably can't keep it standing and on the ground, he'll just end up eating punches all night.

[Beelzebubzy]

Mitchell is +280 but I think he loses more often than not.

Herman is +220 but I think he wins half the time.

If you can't see why I think one is worth a risk and the other is not, then I am sorry.

If I was in a gambling mood, I'd bet Mitchell, but trying to bet smart.

i would take the 7% edge but understandable that its not worth the risk.
Bes of luck gaberz

[gabe]

He also lost to Hendricks and Koscheck by split decision, and I had him winning both fights. He gassed in the Baczynski fight for some reason but Mitchell doesn't have the cardio Baczynski does, or even the cardio that Pierce does. I just don't see how he wins. He probably can't keep it standing and on the ground, he'll just end up eating punches all night.

Koscheck beat him handily, the fight being a split decision was a joke. Boring fight in which Koscheck got the better end of the stand up and incorporated takedowns to secure rounds. Easy win for Kos, he didn't have have to try.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

havent seen the lines yet but barboza and pierce seem like "locks" to me...i think pierce is underrated and could prob. beat most WWs outside the top 10 including a guy like mitchell who is no way near that...i think pierce more or less wrecks mitchell rather easily...koscheck did not beat Pierce handily either...thats exaggerated...both fights w/ hendricks and kos were close...as for herman, idk, i just cant back that guy...hes shown me absolutely nothing...im expecting gonzaga to sub him

[gabe]

I'm not saying Kos dominated Pierce, but he beat him rather easily. Meaning, HE WASN'T EVEN TRYING and he still did more than enough to secure 2 out of 3 rounds.

[gabe]

You could tell Kos looked disinterested and like it was an easy match-up for him. He had said so before and after the fight, and you could clearly see it in his performance.

[raag]

Huge on Edgar by KO or Points @ -250
Large on Edgar outright
Small on Herman
Fliers on Silva by dec., Weidman by dec.

[Crassus]

Why all the Tim Kennedy love? I mean Roger's not a world beater yet but he could be, and he's definitely ready to fight a guy like Kennedy.

[MD]

Why all the Tim Kennedy love? I mean Roger's not a world beater yet but he could be, and he's definitely ready to fight a guy like Kennedy.

I can't name ten guys at 185 right now who I'd favour over Kennedy. He can beat almost anyone and I think you're sorely overestimating Roger. Did you see Kennedy's last fight? How is Roger going to hold him down, or even get him down for that matter? The only way Roger should conceivably win is through a sloppy striking battle and a close decision.

[Beelzebubzy]

Where is the weidman play?

[Tommy Blingshyne]

im not super confident on kennedy but he did go 5 w/ jacare and didnt get subbed and i rate jacare higher then roger as a complete fighter so if i do put $ down, it will be on tim...

[Crassus]

I can't name ten guys at 185 right now who I'd favour over Kennedy. He can beat almost anyone and I think you're sorely overestimating Roger. Did you see Kennedy's last fight? How is Roger going to hold him down, or even get him down for that matter? The only way Roger should conceivably win is through a sloppy striking battle and a close decision.

I was unimpressed with Kennedy's TDD. He got up quickly but I don't see that happening with Roger. Granted I haven't watched as much tape as I plan to but overall I see an ugly striking match between the two of them for a while but eventually Roger gets it down and subs Kennedy. He's good, but Roger is bigger, probably stronger and is an machine on the ground. Kennedy is a tough SOB and I could definitely see him winning it but I don't see Kennedy at - odds and Roger under -150 is a gift to me.

[MD]

I was unimpressed with Kennedy's TDD. He got up quickly but I don't see that happening with Roger. Granted I haven't watched as much tape as I plan to but overall I see an ugly striking match between the two of them for a while but eventually Roger gets it down and subs Kennedy. He's good, but Roger is bigger, probably stronger and is an machine on the ground. Kennedy is a tough SOB and I could definitely see him winning it but I don't see Kennedy at - odds and Roger under -150 is a gift to me.

Kennedy was getting taken down by a much better wrestler than Roger, a much stronger guy than either Kennedy or Roger, and a much faster guy than Roger. He neutralized the wrestling for the most part against someone who is far more of a threat than Roger. Roger's cardio is also very questionable, and he's slow. On the feet Kennedy should have a pretty big edge. I felt the same about the Kennedy line, in regards to it being a gift. Anything under Kennedy -300 has value.

Kennedy stuffed pretty much all of Jacare's takedowns, and also slammed him, and took him down and controlled him on the ground. He did decently in the stand-up, too, and Jacare is obviously better in almost every area than Roger is. By comparison, Roger was losing decisively to Smith until Smith injured his eye (you were on Roger in that fight too, if I remember correctly). I just don't see any value on Roger, I really think he's outmatched. He shouldn't be able to get the takedown, he's at a cardio disadvantage, a striking disadvantage, and even if he somehow takes down a guy with Kennedy's TDD, he is ridiculously hard to finish.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

just for shits im trying to think of 10 MWs that would beat Kennedy IMO, Anderson, Weidman, Okami, Jacare, Belfort, Shields (currently at WW), Bisping?, Hendo (currently at LHW), Rockhold, Franklin

[MD]

just for shits im trying to think of 10 MWs that would beat Kennedy IMO, Anderson, Weidman, Okami, Jacare, Belfort, Shields (currently at WW), Bisping?, Hendo (currently at LHW), Rockhold, Franklin

I think I'd favour Anderson, Weidman, Rockhold, Jacare, Vitor, and possibly Okami, of those you named. Okami may be too strong for Kennedy.

[gabe]

Kennedy has superior striking and cardio with pretty good TDD. Roger has poor stand up and even worse cardio. Throw in Octagon jitters, and I think he gasses early and Tim wins by TKO.

[Crassus]

Kennedy was getting taken down by a much better wrestler than Roger, a much stronger guy than either Kennedy or Roger, and a much faster guy than Roger. He neutralized the wrestling for the most part against someone who is far more of a threat than Roger. Roger's cardio is also very questionable, and he's slow. On the feet Kennedy should have a pretty big edge. I felt the same about the Kennedy line, in regards to it being a gift. Anything under Kennedy -300 has value.

Kennedy stuffed pretty much all of Jacare's takedowns, and also slammed him, and took him down and controlled him on the ground. He did decently in the stand-up, too, and Jacare is obviously better in almost every area than Roger is. By comparison, Roger was losing decisively to Smith until Smith injured his eye (you were on Roger in that fight too, if I remember correctly). I just don't see any value on Roger, I really think he's outmatched. He shouldn't be able to get the takedown, he's at a cardio disadvantage, a striking disadvantage, and even if he somehow takes down a guy with Kennedy's TDD, he is ridiculously hard to finish.

I gotta disagree that Smith was stronger than Roger. Roger is a big dude and while he doesn't look super jacked, he's got that grappling strength that comes with the sport for so long (look at Braulio Estima, dude is a strong guy but he doesn't look enormous).

Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of variables I don't like in this fight, the Kennedy-Jacare fight, Roger's Cardio, and his meh (up till the second round) performance against Smith, that's why it's not a huge bet for me. But I still like Roger at + odds. Again, I see Roger getting the takedown, I just wasn't impressed with Kennedy's TDD (other than the Jacare fight), and Roger is like super-glue on the top. Kennedy is not going to be able to get him off easily, not to mention Kennedy is a very TD big fighter, he always goes for it, even against top level guys like Jacare. Unlike Jacare, Roger has the long legs and body to pull off a ton of sweeps and subs from the bottom.

Roger has been training the stand-up constantly and I think we'll see a much improved Gracie on Saturday night, and I think we'll see a sub. It's not going to be a big bet for me, maybe 2% of BR.

[mmaed]

Dont forget rogers huge reach advantage. Kennedy is the better all around fighter but he is in a unique position. He probably doesnt want to take roger down which means he has to oustrike him. Im not saying he cant do it, he probably can. I just think that it could be close. I think the reach difference will be pretty massive.

to md, yes anthony smith was beating him however his reach was comparable to rogers. Im not saying that was the only factor but it is a big difference.

[JustinOpinion]

'Trying to bet smart by not betting something at +280 that should be +180'

[MD]

I gotta disagree that Smith was stronger than Roger. Roger is a big dude and while he doesn't look super jacked, he's got that grappling strength that comes with the sport for so long (look at Braulio Estima, dude is a strong guy but he doesn't look enormous).

Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of variables I don't like in this fight, the Kennedy-Jacare fight, Roger's Cardio, and his meh (up till the second round) performance against Smith, that's why it's not a huge bet for me. But I still like Roger at + odds. Again, I see Roger getting the takedown, I just wasn't impressed with Kennedy's TDD (other than the Jacare fight), and Roger is like super-glue on the top. Kennedy is not going to be able to get him off easily, not to mention Kennedy is a very TD big fighter, he always goes for it, even against top level guys like Jacare. Unlike Jacare, Roger has the long legs and body to pull off a ton of sweeps and subs from the bottom.

Roger has been training the stand-up constantly and I think we'll see a much improved Gracie on Saturday night, and I think we'll see a sub. It's not going to be a big bet for me, maybe 2% of BR.

lolwut? Roger isn't athletic or even physically strong at all. Smith is a much stronger guy in my opinion, as is Kennedy, I don't even think it's close.

Roger isn't likely to sweep Kennedy from the bottom, although he could; if Jacare couldn't, Roger probably can't. There's a reason Roger stuffs takedowns when people attempt them; he's a top position player that dislikes being on bottom, and he knows that in MMA, good jiu jitsu off of your back isn't always enough to stop wrestlers.

Has he been training stand-up constantly? He's said before that he trains 20% standup and 80% grappling. Has that changed? I don't see how you can have any confidence in his standup, to be honest. Kennedy is lacking in a lot of areas but he's very accurate and he hits hard. He's also got incredible cardio and his wrestling is some of the best at middleweight, so he's not afraid to throw kicks and risk getting taken down. I really just think Roger is too slow and unathletic for Kennedy.

[Crassus]

I think I'd favour Anderson, Weidman, Rockhold, Jacare, Vitor, and possibly Okami, of those you named. Okami may be too strong for Kennedy.

Lombard at 185 would have been interesting, so would Shlemenko.

[Crassus]

lolwut? Roger isn't athletic or even physically strong at all. Smith is a much stronger guy in my opinion, as is Kennedy, I don't even think it's close.

Roger isn't likely to sweep Kennedy from the bottom, although he could; if Jacare couldn't, Roger probably can't. There's a reason Roger stuffs takedowns when people attempt them; he's a top position player that dislikes being on bottom, and he knows that in MMA, good jiu jitsu off of your back isn't always enough to stop wrestlers.

Has he been training stand-up constantly? He's said before that he trains 20% standup and 80% grappling. Has that changed? I don't see how you can have any confidence in his standup, to be honest. Kennedy is lacking in a lot of areas but he's very accurate and he hits hard. He's also got incredible cardio and his wrestling is some of the best at middleweight, so he's not afraid to throw kicks and risk getting taken down. I really just think Roger is too slow and unathletic for Kennedy.

In an interview he mentioned something about finally leaving his London school for actual training at LDG.

A guy who has won 12 gold medals at BJJ world championships and ADCC at 99kg and absolute isn't athletic or strong? The guy has controlled enormous, powerful grapplers, he's strong as hell. He's also a better grappler than Jacare, I don't buy the argument of "if Jacare couldn't Roger probably can't either." Is he better at being on top? Yes. He still can do his work from the bottom, he's bigger than Souza and bigger than Kennedy, I can easily see Roger getting a sweep.

Again this is why the match-up isn't ideal. There's a lot of issues with it, Kennedy is much shorter so who knows, Roger could use his jab to keep Kennedy at distance. Roger was doing that decently against King Mo until King Mo landed that big shot and a mini-petruzelli hit which got the KO in the end.

Again I don't see this great wrestling, you're that impressed with his ability to take Melvin Mahoef and Robbie Lawler down? Yes he looked impressive against Jacare and got the takedown against Rockhold but after that he was always stuffed. COULD Kennedy have excellent wrestling? Sure. He's looked the part and done all the right things, no shame in being ineffective against Rockhold and very impressive to have taken Jacare down so many times, it does not make it one of the best wrestling in the division.

I mean I wouldn't be shocked if Kennedy came out far faster and athletic than Roger and wins. I just don't think it will happen, this is a crazy close match-up in my opinion, one that Roger wins 60% of the time and Kennedy wins 40%. Probably a little less in truth given that I'm maybe a little biased towards Roger but still, + odds means I'll bet.

[MD]

In an interview he mentioned something about finally leaving his London school for actual training at LDG.

A guy who has won 12 gold medals at BJJ world championships and ADCC at 99kg and absolute isn't athletic or strong? The guy has controlled enormous, powerful grapplers, he's strong as hell. He's also a better grappler than Jacare, I don't buy the argument of "if Jacare couldn't Roger probably can't either." Is he better at being on top? Yes. He still can do his work from the bottom, he's bigger than Souza and bigger than Kennedy, I can easily see Roger getting a sweep.

Again this is why the match-up isn't ideal. There's a lot of issues with it, Kennedy is much shorter so who knows, Roger could use his jab to keep Kennedy at distance. Roger was doing that decently against King Mo until King Mo landed that big shot and a mini-petruzelli hit which got the KO in the end.

Again I don't see this great wrestling, you're that impressed with his ability to take Melvin Mahoef and Robbie Lawler down? Yes he looked impressive against Jacare and got the takedown against Rockhold but after that he was always stuffed. COULD Kennedy have excellent wrestling? Sure. He's looked the part and done all the right things, no shame in being ineffective against Rockhold and very impressive to have taken Jacare down so many times, it does not make it one of the best wrestling in the division.

I mean I wouldn't be shocked if Kennedy came out far faster and athletic than Roger and wins. I just don't think it will happen, this is a crazy close match-up in my opinion, one that Roger wins 60% of the time and Kennedy wins 40%. Probably a little less in truth given that I'm maybe a little biased towards Roger but still, + odds means I'll bet.

BJJ is the antithesis of athletics. A lot of the best guys are wonderfully athletic, but BJJ as an art seems to train the athleticism out of people. It's not a martial art that encourages power or speed, to use his record as a justification for his athleticism is a stretch. "He's a better grappler than Jacare" is also a gross oversimplification. When Jacare competed against Roger in the Mundials, Jacare had his arm broken, tucked it into his gi, and went on to beat Roger one-armed. That was a long time ago, but generalizations like that are difficult to justify. The difference in athleticism between Jacare and Roger is like night and day. The technical differences aren't nearly as pronounced.

Roger got wrecked by King Mo. In no world was the standup even remotely competitive in my view, and I watched that fight yesterday. Roger looked like a child boxing with Floyd Mayweather, and part of that was because that was the best Mo has ever looked. He's changed his stance and his style since then and hasn't looked even remotely as impressive. I actually thought Roger got unlucky in that fight though; I thought he got rocked by a headbutt, rather than a punch.

[Crassus]

BJJ is the antithesis of athletics. A lot of the best guys are wonderfully athletic, but BJJ as an art seems to train the athleticism out of people. It's not a martial art that encourages power or speed, to use his record as a justification for his athleticism is a stretch. "He's a better grappler than Jacare" is also a gross oversimplification. When Jacare competed against Roger in the Mundials, Jacare had his arm broken, tucked it into his gi, and went on to beat Roger one-armed. That was a long time ago, but generalizations like that are difficult to justify. The difference in athleticism between Jacare and Roger is like night and day. The technical differences aren't nearly as pronounced.

Roger got wrecked by King Mo. In no world was the standup even remotely competitive in my view, and I watched that fight yesterday. Roger looked like a child boxing with Floyd Mayweather, and part of that was because that was the best Mo has ever looked. He's changed his stance and his style since then and hasn't looked even remotely as impressive. I actually thought Roger got unlucky in that fight though; I thought he got rocked by a headbutt, rather than a punch.

I profoundly disagree with you on the BJJ is the antithesis of athletics. Nor that it doesn't encourage power or speed, granted it's in bursts, but it definitely does. The Jacare loss was a long long time ago, and Roger just doesn't win, he subs. Something pretty rare especially at his level of competition. I think it's silly to think Roger isn't athletic or strong.



Mo was winning, he had the aggression and some good punches but Roger got some knees in, landed some decent punches. I'm not seeing Mayweather vs Child...Roger seemed to be doing pretty well keeping Mo at distance.

[MD]

I profoundly disagree with you on the BJJ is the antithesis of athletics. Nor that it doesn't encourage power or speed, granted it's in bursts, but it definitely does. The Jacare loss was a long long time ago, again Roger just doesn't win, he subs. Something pretty rare especially at his level of competition.



Was Mo winning, sure but Roger got some knees in, landed some decent punches. I'm not seeing Mayweather vs Child...

So what's your basis for saying Roger is a better grappler than Jacare, then? Hype? Roger's lost more than a step in jiu jitsu, too. He got absolutely dominated at Metamoris, far worse than he's ever been, by Buchecha, I don't even know how many people would have him in the top five BJJ practitioners in the world right now. Probably very few. It's not like he's improving.

Mo wasn't just "winning", he was clearly dominating. You act as if because Roger landed some of his incredibly non-damaging punches, that makes it competitive. Maia hit Anderson Silva, and that was nothing short of a clinic. Hell, Leben hit Anderson Silva.

[Crassus]

So what's your basis for saying Roger is a better grappler than Jacare, then? Hype? Roger's lost more than a step in jiu jitsu, too. He got absolutely dominated at Metamoris, far worse than he's ever been, by Buchecha, I don't even know how many people would have him in the top five BJJ practitioners in the world right now. Probably very few. It's not like he's improving.

Mo wasn't just "winning", he was clearly dominating. You act as if because Roger landed some of his incredibly non-damaging punches, that makes it competitive. Maia hit Anderson Silva, and that was nothing short of a clinic. Hell, Leben hit Anderson Silva.

Hype? I'd say he's a better grappler given his winning record against Souza (who he has subbed before) him subbing Fabricio Werdum, him beating Jon Olav Enimo, he subbed marcelo garcia!

Is he top 5 in BJJ now? Probably not. Neither is Souza, Souza looked remarkably out of depth in his super-match against Braulio Estima . It's basically impossible to be a top guy in MMA and BJJ, you can't win at BJJ if you're not dedicating your life to it.

I don't understand how you can watch that round and say it was domination by Mo. It just doesn't make any sense to me.

[MD]

Hype? I'd say he's a better grappler given his winning record against Souza (who he has subbed before) him subbing Fabricio Werdum, him beating Jon Olav Enimo, he subbed marcelo garcia!

Is he top 5 in BJJ now? Probably not. Neither is Souza, Souza looked remarkably out of depth in his super-match against Braulio Estima . It's basically impossible to be a top guy in MMA and BJJ, you can't win at BJJ if you're not dedicating your life to it.

I don't understand how you can watch that round and say it was domination by Mo. It just doesn't make any sense to me.

You realize that Einemo has beaten Roger too, right? And "winning record" is a bit deceptive. Souza has beaten him more than once, and their matches have always been competitive. Dennis Hallman has a winning record against Matt Hughes, I doubt that anyone is going to claim that Hallman is a better fighter. As for subbing Marcelo, do you realize the kind of size edge Roger has over Marcelo?

The point I was making in regards to his stature in BJJ is that he's not as good as he used to be; the Jardine fight is enough proof of that. Both Souza and Gracie have moved to MMA, and obviously their grappling games will have altered and suffered as a result. Perhaps also in some ways changing for the better. A blanket statement like "Roger is a better grappler than Jacare" holds no weight.

I call it domination because Mo completely controlled the action, hit Gracie pretty much whenever he wanted, was never in any danger, and when he turned it up and tried to finish, he did. There was never a moment in that fight when Roger didn't look like a fish out of water.

[Vaughany]

To quote Dana White!...

"Then be a penetrating garbage man. There’s the answer to that question. No disrespect, but who gives a shit about Tim Kennedy. Is he selling out venues? Are they buying penetrating tickets for Tim Kennedy?"