[SBRPicks]

Nick Kalikas, professional MMA oddsmaker and MMA betting consultant for multiple sportsbooks, and Luca Fury, from MMAOddsBreaker.com, joined Peter Loshak in the SBR Videos studios to preview the Main Card of UFC 161.


Part 1: Dan Henderson vs Rashad Evans


Part 2: Roy Nelson vs Stipe Miocic

Part 3: Alexis Davis vs Rosi Sexton


Part 4: Pat Barry vs Shawn Jordan


Part 5: Igor Pokrajac vs Ryan Jimmo

[Sacrelicious]

Struve has better cardio then Roy Nelson???

[Luca Fury]

Struve has better cardio then Roy Nelson???

Yup, now do you believe it? Easy win for us on Stipe, who closed +250.

[MD]

Struve actually has very good cardio, he's only really gassed in the Hunt fight.

I'd say Stipe showed tonight that his cardio is elite.

How'd you do tonight by the way, Luca? Seems like the whole board had a good night.

[Luca Fury]

Struve actually has very good cardio, he's only really gassed in the Hunt fight.

I'd say Stipe showed tonight that his cardio is elite.

How'd you do tonight by the way, Luca? Seems like the whole board had a good night.

Agreed.

As for results, Stout getting tapped 13 seconds before the fight made it the distance hurt. Woodley getting jobbed hurt too (had him parlayed with Davis at -113 so at least we didn't eat the -190 juice that he was straight). But Hit Stipe +230 and Rashad -130. Could have been a HUGE night if not for some flukish luck but whatever. Glad to hit Stipe who didn't have a snowball's chance in hell according to 99.9% of people.

[MD]

Agreed.

As for results, Stout getting tapped 13 seconds before the fight made it the distance hurt. Woodley getting jobbed hurt too (had him parlayed with Davis at -113 so at least we didn't eat the -190 juice that he was straight). But Hit Stipe +230 and Rashad -130. Could have been a HUGE night if not for some flukish luck but whatever. Glad to hit Stipe who didn't have a snowball's chance in hell according to 99.9% of people.

I was actually all over Stipe. I think Nelson is incredibly overrated and people took too much from the Struve loss.

I hit Stipe decision +550, was pretty happy with that. Delorme decision +503 too. I was on the other end of the Woodley fight, I had Shields decision +420, and I was on the Stout decision prop, also, but I had Krause +260 as well so I finished up for that fight.

Huge variance in my favour tonight. Can't complain, though, I put in the time.

You going to be on Weidman on the next card? Or pass?

[Luca Fury]

I was actually all over Stipe. I think Nelson is incredibly overrated and people took too much from the Struve loss.

I hit Stipe decision +550, was pretty happy with that. Delorme decision +503 too. I was on the other end of the Woodley fight, I had Shields decision +420, and I was on the Stout decision prop, also, but I had Krause +260 as well so I finished up for that fight.

Huge variance in my favour tonight. Can't complain, though, I put in the time.

You going to be on Weidman on the next card? Or pass?

Nice calls!! Glad to see you smash the books!

And yeah, the Stipe line was nuts to me and after seeing the weigh ins where Roy looked worse than usual (not that he ever looks good), we doubled the bet size on it. That fight was a pick em at worst, like we said. Stipe all around better and more technical, just had to avoid the right hand.

[PunisherIND]

Woodley getting jobbed hurt too (had him parlayed with Davis at -113 so at least we didn't eat the -190 juice that he was straight).

cool story.
Except you did eat the juice

[bjpenn85]

Betting woodley is such a bad bet. A big monkey who havent proved a shit for -200. Congratulations.

[Vaughany]

ahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahaa

[PunisherIND]

Betting woodley is such a bad bet. A big monkey who havent proved a shit for -200. Congratulations.

lol im not even knocking the woodley play in itself (full disclosure; i was on woodley at -185, and thought he won the decision, but thats besides the point). he's charging people for advice, you'd think he had a basic understanding of parlays. and quite frankly im disappointed in md for not pointing this out, especially when he was quick to correct dwil the other day. after all dwil is a beginner, not a "professional gambler" like luca over here.

[Vaughany]

Maybe he didnt feel it was the right time seeing as fury has only jus survived a three round beating by a chicken wing! Or maybe he fury gets special let off because he's a pro brah

[bjpenn85]

Luca fury like those risky plays with low rewards sprinkled with some solid excuses afterwards. I cashed big on miocic decision @ 7.50 That was a hell of a line. Reminds me of the old paddypower lines.

Any plays locked in yet for ufc 161? Im on edgar and the other play i have to keep my mouth shut until the lines are released.

[Vaughany]

Maxi bet edgar at -280 and swanson at -190. Hoping to get a certain sniper as a dog too!

[MD]

lol im not even knocking the woodley play in itself (full disclosure; i was on woodley at -185, and thought he won the decision, but thats besides the point). he's charging people for advice, you'd think he had a basic understanding of parlays. and quite frankly im disappointed in md for not pointing this out, especially when he was quick to correct dwil the other day. after all dwil is a beginner, not a "professional gambler" like luca over here.

Oops, didn't even notice that. Good call.

I have criticized Luca and Kalikas in the past for telling people to "put it in a parlay", though.

[PunisherIND]

Luca fury like those risky plays with low rewards sprinkled with some solid excuses afterwards. I cashed big on miocic decision @ 7.50 That was a hell of a line. Reminds me of the old paddypower lines.

Any plays locked in yet for ufc 161? Im on edgar and the other play i have to keep my mouth shut until the lines are released.

nice man, i was on stipe decision as well, but only got it at +400. for the next event, im on weidman su and itd; and edgar su.

[PunisherIND]

Oops, didn't even notice that. Good call.

I have criticized Luca and Kalikas in the past for telling people to "put it in a parlay", though.

yes, you have. this was just a blatant example, so i was expecting you to call him out on it.

the funny thing, even if you disregard this concept that putting it in a parlay magically removes juice, he boasts about the woodley + davis parlay as if it was a smart move. however, if you had played the two independently (and paid the same juice), you would have at least won on the davis bet. it was just a silly statement, especially coming from a pro gambler tout.

[Vaughany]

[MD]

yes, you have. this was just a blatant example, so i was expecting you to call him out on it.

the funny thing, even if you disregard this concept that putting it in a parlay magically removes juice, he boasts about the woodley + davis parlay as if it was a smart move. however, if you had played the two independently (and paid the same juice), you would have at least won on the davis bet. it was just a silly statement, especially coming from a pro gambler tout.

Generally people who sell gambling advice are either good handicappers with poor gambling theory, or good gambling theorists with poor handicapping. I think Luca falls into the first category. No offence intended to Luca, though, I actually don't have any problem with him selling his picks if it's what he wants to do. Doesn't bother me in the slightest.

[bjpenn85]

Im also on weidman. Just SU. Dont know how he wins.

[Grabaka]

If Weidman wins i will travel the world and penetrate some euro bitches. Weeeeeeeeeee Go Weidman!!!! Go Weidman!!!! Go Weidman!!!! Go Weidman!!!!

[Vaughany]

haha

[Luca Fury]

cool story.
Except you did eat the juice

LOL at clowns like you who look at start shit for no reason.

As everyone knows, thee individual lines are still factored into parlays and you don't get any extra value. All a parlay does is take the risk amount + winnings from 1 bet and put it on the next. The initial risk is lower, as is the potential loss -- that's the benefit.

So obviously what I meant was we didn't lose 1.9 units on a -190 line and instead only lost 1.13 because it was in a -113 parlay. But you, who looks for ANY reason to attack others, decides to try and put words in my mouth and act like I was saying something else. That, or you're reading comprehension is poor.

[Luca Fury]

Betting woodley is such a bad bet. A big monkey who havent proved a shit for -200. Congratulations.

Boy, sure is easy to say someone else's bet was bad AFTER the fact, isn't it?

Generally people who sell gambling advice are either good handicappers with poor gambling theory, or good gambling theorists with poor handicapping. I think Luca falls into the first category. No offence intended to Luca, though, I actually don't have any problem with him selling his picks if it's what he wants to do. Doesn't bother me in the slightest.

I completely disagree, as would Nick. And if you're going to say the man who provides all the betting lines and is a winning MMA gambler himself can't accurately judge if someone has good gambling theory, I don't even know what to say.

Besides, all this nonsense spewed from the trolls here (not you, MD) is irrelevant anyway since I've been giving out consistent winning bets for 2 years now. People can make up whatever BS they want but the point is I'm a proven longterm winner at MMA.

Thing is, as I've seen time and time agin on this board, you guys all attack people who are winners. But all the squares who make threads with losing bets get their asses kissed. It's funny. The trolls are all fueled by jealousy and get threatened by the people who know what they're talking about. All the winning gamblers get scared away because they're tired of being disrespected by clowns who can't pick their own nose.

[sideloaded]

LOL at clowns like you who look at start shit for no reason.

As everyone knows, thee individual lines are still factored into parlays and you don't get any extra value. All a parlay does is take the risk amount + winnings from 1 bet and put it on the next. The initial risk is lower, as is the potential loss -- that's the benefit.

So obviously what I meant was we didn't lose 1.9 units on a -190 line and instead only lost 1.13 because it was in a -113 parlay. But you, who looks for ANY reason to attack others, decides to try and put words in my mouth and act like I was saying something else. That, or you're reading comprehension is poor.

lol what a f-cking ass clown you are. You know what SBR does to dumb f-ck touts?

[Luca Fury]

lol what a f-cking fagg-t ass clown you are. You know what SBR does to dumb f-ck touts?

Coming from the guy who made a thread where he said he was going to "make a huge splash and get [his] name out on the gambling scene," who then got buried and proceeded to have a psychotic breakdown. Cool story, bro.

LOL at you calling me a dumb tout. Even my FREE betting video previews killed it. They hit 65% with an average betting line of -122 for an ROI of 19.8% over the course of 19 UFC, Strikeforce, Bellator and WSOF events. Those are undeniably phenomenal numbers.

[sideloaded]

Coming from the guy who made a thread where he said he was going to "make a huge splash and get [his] name out on the gambling scene," who then got buried and proceeded to have a psychotic breakdown. Cool story, bro.

LOL at you calling me a dumb tout. Even my FREE betting video previews killed it. They hit 65% with an average betting line of -122 for an ROI of 19.8% over the course of 19 events. Those are undeniably phenomenal numbers.

Uh did you see the huge following my picks get now? LMAO I made it kid.

[Luca Fury]

Uh did you see the huge following my picks get now? LMAO I made it kid.

"Huge following" as in all the people who bash you because you get buried and then have mental breakdowns?

[sideloaded]

"luca" that is not your real name Tim. No one here is going to protect you. Keep during yourself a hole.

[sideloaded]

"Huge following" as in all the people who bash you because you get buried and then have mental breakdowns?

Lets get back on the subject. Just show us all, as in math how you didnt eat the juice.

[Luca Fury]

"luca" that is not your real name Tim. No one here is going to protect you. Keep during yourself a hole.

LOL at you still going on about that. My one Sherdog name from 3 years ago had "tim" in it as an ACRONYM and you still think it's my real first name. Funniest thing ever.

Lets get back on the subject. Just show us all, as in math how you didnt eat the juice.

Already explained above, but hey, let's just ignore that I guess...

[sideloaded]

LOL at you still going on about that. My one Sherdog name from 3 years ago had "tim" in it as an ACRONYM and you still think it's my real first name. Funniest thing ever.



Already explained above, but hey, let's just ignore that I guess...

Funny because you denied till your death on sherdog that Tim account was not yours. But really I want to see the math on how you didnt eat the juice.

[Luca Fury]

Funny because you denied till your death on sherdog that Tim account was not yours. But really I want to see the math on how you didnt eat the juice.

I never once denied it. It was tim67 and then when I got hired by the site I had them change it to my name, Luca Fury, so people knew it was me.

And again, funny how you keep ignoring the above post. There's a reason why everyone on here says you're literally insane. All you do is go around bashing everyone and everything for hours on end, ignoring facts an logic. It's both sad and funny.

[sideloaded]

I never once denied it. It was tim67 and then when I got hired by the site I had them change it to my name, Luca Fury, so people knew it was me.

And again, funny how you keep ignoring the above post. There's a reason why everyone on here says you're literally insane. All you do is go around bashing everyone and everything for hours on end, ignoring facts an logic. It's both sad and funny.

I want facts and logic. Where is the math showing you didnt eat the juice?

[Luca Fury]

I want facts and logic. Where is the math showing you didnt eat the juice?

Well, this has hit a wall. As usual, you realized you've been completely shut down and now, as the last act of a desperate troll, are just repeating yourself over and over despite the fact your question has already been answered. Go take your meds.