[MD]

I didn't do a straight bet, I have him as an anchor to a couple parlays. If his opponent is like +250 I can just make it risk free.

That's not how parlays work bro.

[Mercersux]

What's cena coming in @ line wise ??? I hear they're setting up Cena-Bryan @ Summerslam so if thats the case obvs Cena needs to win. Also, Cena has been winning at house shows.

[Beelzebubzy]

Yes
scripts for ppvs change all the time including up to Sunday but that is the plan

[Dwil125]

That's not how parlays work bro.

All of the other slots in the parlay are already wins.

[MD]

All of the other slots in the parlay are already wins.

If you put $100 on a Shields +175/Punk -1200 parlay and Shields cashes with Punk as the last leg, you have $275 on Punk at -1200. Betting on Punk's opponent at anything less than +1200 is a losing proposition.

[Dwil125]

So lets say my parlay is $50 to win $100 completing with punk. His opponent is currently +420, how is putting $11 on his opponent a losing proposition since it wins back my original bet amount?

[MD]

So lets say my parlay is $50 to win $100 completing with punk. His opponent is currently +420, how is putting $11 on his opponent a losing proposition since it wins back my original bet amount?

EDIT: phrased this a little badly. Rewording it a bit.

Because if you do that, you're losing money, and may as well not even have played Punk.

I'm assuming you understand how a parlay works and how it's calculated, in which case, it's really simple: if your final investment is on a -1200 line, how can you possibly hedge with a +420 line without losing money? Your parlay would have been more profitable had it not had Punk in it. Thus, you're losing money by hedging it, as opposed to just not playing Punk in the first place. What odds do you think you're getting Punk at if you hedge your parlay at +420?

[MD]

To follow up on that, the amount of profit Punk adds to the parlay at -1200 is $28.6458333. If you hedge out of the parlay at +420, this amount drops to around $4.84. Instead of getting Punk at -1200, you're getting Punk at -7100.

[NunyaBidness]

To follow up on that, the amount of profit Punk adds to the parlay at -1200 is $28.6458333. If you hedge out of the parlay at +420, this amount drops to around $4.84. Instead of getting Punk at -1200, you're getting Punk at -7100.

You're missing a pretty important point here.

If Dwil believes there is no longer an edge on his original bet, hedging increases his EG, even if it makes his original bet a mistake in hindsight.

For example, I have Spurs to win the series at +1000, I could hedge out this afternoon at +110. I reduce the overall price on my wager by doing it, but if I believe the true Miami line is not correct at +110 I gain by taking that wager as well.

Optimizing growth is always the most important factor; sometimes reducing negative growth is tantamount.

[MD]

You're missing a pretty important point here.

If Dwil believes there is no longer an edge on his original bet, hedging increases his EG, even if it makes his original bet a mistake in hindsight.

For example, I have Spurs to win the series at +1000, I could hedge out this afternoon at +110. I reduce the overall price on my wager by doing it, but if I believe the true Miami line is not correct at +110 I gain by taking that wager as well.

Optimizing growth is always the most important factor; sometimes reducing negative growth is tantamount.

I'm not missing it, it's just not relevant to my point. We have had this conversation before, you know. I do absolutely agree with you though, my point was only to try to help with his misunderstanding of the mechanics of a parlay.

[NunyaBidness]

I'm not missing it, it's just not relevant to my point. We have had this conversation before, you know. I do absolutely agree with you though, my point was only to try to help with his misunderstanding of the mechanics of a parlay.

But there's more going on than that.

[MD]

But there's more going on than that.

But I didn't comment on anything else other than the parlay mechanics. Whether or not CM Punk deserves to be -1200 was something I deliberately never mentioned as I have absolutely no knowledge in that area. The conversation started like this:

I didn't do a straight bet, I have him as an anchor to a couple parlays. If his opponent is like +250 I can just make it risk free.

That's not how parlays work bro.

All of the other slots in the parlay are already wins.

And then I explained the flaws in that logic.

I ain't got time fo dat WWE shit bro, might as well be hotdog eating contests to me. Do you understand what I was getting at now though?

[PunisherIND]

might as well be hotdog eating contests to me.

thanks for reminding me. have to start capping this. 3 weeks away.

[NunyaBidness]

thanks for reminding me. have to start capping this. 3 weeks away.

The hot dog betting gravy train is over. No good lines last year, don't expect any this year either.

That 9 dog middle I had on Joey Chestnut in 2011 was glorious though.

[PunisherIND]

The hot dog betting gravy train is over. No good lines last year, don't expect any this year either.

That 9 dog middle I had on Joey Chestnut in 2011 was glorious though.

i have some inside info, but it would be insane to post it on a public forum.

[NunyaBidness]

i have some inside info, but it would be insane to post it on a public forum.

The Kobayashi jaw injury is well reported and will be factored into the line.

[Beelzebubzy]

Will the other matches have lines?

I like ziggler shield and
Kane if he is a huge dog

[Beelzebubzy]

wake up you drunk

[Beelzebubzy]

Will the other matches have lines?

I like ziggler shield and
Kane if he is a huge dog

Kane needs to be +1000 here. only wins by DQ such as Shield running in

[Beelzebubzy]

Ziggler at +180

[TheDane]

what the heck was the jericho/punk line all about? It was up and down, up and down, now Jericho is a huge dog.

[Beelzebubzy]

what the heck was the jericho/punk line all about? It was up and down, up and down, now Jericho is a huge dog.

It's what we were expecting

[gambler705]

Ziggler @ + 300?? Goes against everything thats reasonably expected. Ive followed these lines over the last few ppvs and am pretty sure 5d has a source inside wwe. Ryback/ henry at mania was clearly obvious they knew something that the bloggers and die hard fans did not

[NunyaBidness]

Ziggler @ + 300?? Goes against everything thats reasonably expected. Ive followed these lines over the last few ppvs and am pretty sure 5d has a source inside wwe.

They don't need a source, the market is driving the price. If they had a source they would be offering +2000 on the wrong side.

[gambler705]

Where is the market for del rio coming from????

They don't need a source, the market is driving the price. If they had a source they would be offering +2000 on the wrong side.

[NunyaBidness]

Where is the market for del rio coming from????

Presumably people with inside knowledge not at 5d. Or possibly some other forum where their version of Sac is pushing everyone to bet it.

[gambler705]

Possible, but i doubt it. We are talking about fixed outcomes here, not typical pro sports. And i think 5d or any other book for that matter willing to take action is going to have a source, especially when u look at the potential payouts on the dogs, as well as the strange lines which contradict what every wrestling mark and even casual fans seem to believe what will happen.

[NunyaBidness]

Possible, but i doubt it. We are talking about fixed outcomes here, not typical pro sports. And i think 5d or any other book for that matter willing to take action is going to have a source, especially when u look at the potential payouts on the dogs, as well as the strange lines which contradict what every wrestling mark and even casual fans seem to believe what will happen.

Then why not offer +2000 on the bad side? If Sac is going to go apeshit over it at Even money, then let him go double bonkers bananas over the trap line that you know loses?

Why offer a reasonable price on the side that you know wins, when there are others clearly in the know as well?

[PunisherIND]

Everything nunya said, plus, I believe they opened ziggler as the favorite here.

[Beelzebubzy]

Dolph Ziggler will leave Chicago tonight as the World Champ. This is a bout that is going into the PPV without a great deal of momentum or fanfare due to Ziggler's recent injury and subsequent absence so it might overachieve adn out perform many projections.
From good ol jr

[bubblebuttluv]

Well who wins tonight, Ziggler or Del Rio? Also, does Ryabck have a chance?

[gambler705]

Ryback has no chance

Well who wins tonight, Ziggler or Del Rio? Also, does Ryabck have a chance?

[Beelzebubzy]

Damn a possible double turn??

[Beelzebubzy]

@JRsBBQ: Surprised @HEELZiggler lost World Title to an extremely aggressive @VivaDelRio.
Ziggler viable in losing effort. Intriguing story.@WWE

[gambler705]

Still dont think 5d has a source? They had ziggler at +1200 at 1 point.