wheres the value in playing something that chalky straight up ?Originally Posted by Vaughany
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05-20-13 02:39 PM #36
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05-20-13 02:40 PM #37
If you think an apple it's worth 2 dollars and the supermarket is selling it for 1.50, wouldn't you buy it? Originally Posted by whipton
Points Awarded:
Educ8d Degener8 gave Beelzebubzy 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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05-20-13 02:44 PM #38
where's the value in putting something that chalky in a parlay? Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 02:46 PM #39
So you think there's value in a parlay, but not straight up? Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 03:10 PM #40
LMAO rothwell jr HAHA Originally Posted by Vaughany
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05-20-13 03:16 PM #41
tommy, maybe I didn't explain it great, but I actually give noons 0% chance of sub. i'd say 10% itd, either in the form of a flash ko, or fluke injury. 10% chance he wins a decision. put it this way, I like cerrone SU most of all. by playing the -530, i'm still getting cerrone SU for all intents and purposes, and I get a little more coverage in case of a flash ko/fluke injury. Originally Posted by Tommy Blingshyne
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05-20-13 03:19 PM #42
here we go again, lol. every fockin week we go thru this shit. don't even waste you're time. Originally Posted by MD
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05-20-13 03:22 PM #43
Nah bro, let's hear him out. There's a lot about parlays that we still don't know, scientists aren't sure exactly how they work. Who knows what kind of wonders and mysteries they hold? Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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05-20-13 03:24 PM #44
im not going to debate betting styles.. BOL brotha
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05-20-13 03:29 PM #45
I don't blame you. All of those value parlays must have really drained your magical energy. I'm sure you're running on empty by now. Originally Posted by whipton
Such is the price we pay for creating value out of thin air.
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05-20-13 03:35 PM #46
lol The value when betting straight-up moneyline is ok, but the value when putting in a parlay is average
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05-20-13 03:36 PM #47
haaahahaha Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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05-20-13 03:46 PM #48
WTF is this? Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 04:02 PM #49
my thread Originally Posted by Sacrelicious
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05-20-13 04:37 PM #50
Unreal. Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 04:44 PM #51
How can I compete with your ever so informative thread ???
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05-20-13 04:45 PM #52
How can I compete with your ever so informative thread ??? Originally Posted by Sacrelicious
Unreal.
Stay positive
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05-20-13 04:51 PM #53
oh shit, I thought this was the event thread. lol. my bad for infiltrating dude. next time try to use a different thread title. Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 04:52 PM #54
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05-20-13 04:52 PM #55
lol
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05-20-13 04:56 PM #56
Infiltrating ???? Nah bro you're all welcome to post. Why would I care. Positive or negative reactions I love it . Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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05-20-13 04:58 PM #57
Originally Posted by whipton
cool. some people get sensitive about their personal threads.
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05-20-13 05:03 PM #58
Rofl whipton gettin' straight whipped on. Originally Posted by MD
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05-20-13 05:05 PM #59
Am I ? Originally Posted by mirinquads
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05-20-13 05:08 PM #60
dude this is a shit show, everyone think this is ufc 160 thread now
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05-20-13 06:10 PM #61
You should find a better way to setup your post my friend, You prob. got some valid insight, but this is just wierd and annoying. Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 06:36 PM #62
Is it weird and annoying because I don't see how. Originally Posted by mirinquads
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05-20-13 06:40 PM #63
Thanks for the one positive thing you have ever said about me. Originally Posted by mirinquads
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05-20-13 06:50 PM #64
Yeah. You never post in mine. I dont know what im doing wrong Originally Posted by PunisherIND
cool. some people get sensitive about their personal threads.
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05-20-13 07:09 PM #65
heehe. I was duped into posting here. i like to stay in neutral territory. international waters, if you will. Originally Posted by Grabaka
Yeah. You never post in mine. I dont know what im doing wrong
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05-20-13 07:12 PM #66
How do I post a pic in my avatar ?? It's not working for me.
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05-20-13 07:17 PM #67
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/profile.php?do=editavatar Originally Posted by whipton
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05-20-13 08:17 PM #68
thanks broski Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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05-20-13 09:51 PM #69
thats why im saying...noons not by dec. means youre betting on cerrone by dec, tko/ko, sub as well as noons by sub, tko/ko all in one bet...noons by dec. would be graded as a loss according to that specific prop...according to what you said, you give noons zero chance at a sub and only 10% chance at a ko/tko...so basically theres pretty much nothing noons can do to help you win your bet according to your analysis, save for a very small chance (10%) via flukey injury or flash KO...so basically, to win your bet, according to what you think, youre really banking on cerrone finishing noons or winning a decision...since you already have cerrone straight up, why not take cerrone ITD +135 odds (5D) or wait till the specific prop odds come out for a tko/ko or sub and play those for even bigger + odds? as opposed to -530 odds...you dont think noons can sub cerrone, you dont think noons can decision cerrone and you only give noons a 10% chance to possible ko him...that pretty much only leaves cerrone by finish or decision...either of those props (itd, tko/ko or sub) would pay out far better then a -530 not noons by dec bet....if you gave noons a real chance at a ko/tko or a sub, this -530 bet would have more sense, but you only give a small fluke chance of a ko/tko and zero chance of a sub...so why make a bet that includes those outcomes if they dont even provide any value to you? Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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05-20-13 10:11 PM #70
that 10% makes this bet worthwhile for me. I have cerrone winning 80% of the time, and noons winning itd 10% of the time. so that's 90% of possible outcomes at -530, or 84.1%. I understand a lot disagree with my numbers, but if we're going along with my numbers, I think the bet makes sense. you are right, however, that my bet includes noons by sub, but overall its still has value imo. im not sure I can explain it better. I think the lines for cerrone itd and by decision are about right. I don't see any value there at the moment. Originally Posted by Tommy Blingshyne
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