[whipton]

Date: May 18, 2013
Location: Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil
Venue: Arena Jaragua
Broadcast: FX, FUEL TV, Facebook

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)

• Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold
• Chris Camozzi vs. Ronaldo Souza
• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham
• Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 6 p.m. ET)

• Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz
• Mike Rio vs. Francisco Trinaldo
• John Cholish vs. Gleison Tibau
• Michel Prazeres vs. Paulo Thiago
• Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos
• Roger Hollett vs. Fabio Maldonado

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4:30 p.m. ET)

• Azamat Gashimov vs. John Lineker
• Chris Cariaso vs. Jussier Formiga
• Jeremy Larsen vs. Lucas Martins

Jussier Formiga
================
Grappler/striker
counter striker
avg striker
contact striker
strikes to close the distance to att. clinch td
avg punching tech.
throws various punching combos
avg kicker
> avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body
does't really check kicks
weak clinch striker/ mainly looks for td
< avg head movement
ok footwork
ok clinch td/trip
ok shoot td
prefers to shoot for DL td
clinch tdd ???
shoot sl or dl tdd ???
decent top control
decent jits
ok guard passing ability
> avg gnp
> avg active guard
< avg chin
ok cardio




Chris Cariaso
==============
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
ok striker
contact striker
> avg punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos
ok kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
> avg active clinch striker/good elbows & knees
avg head movement
avg footwork
ok clinch td/trip
rarely shoots for td
prefers clinch td/trip against the cage
< avg clinch tdd
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd
avg top control
> avg jits
< avg guard passing ability
> avg gnp
> avg active guard
decent chin
decent cardio




formiga via sub/dec


confidence meter:6/10


What the odds Should be:
=========================


formiga: -170
cariaso: +145




John Lineker
=============
Striker/grappler
aggressive
ok striker
heavy handed
avg punching tech.
throws various punching combos
good body puncher
good left hook
avg kicker
> avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body
> avg striker in the clinch
weak head movement
< avg footwork
> avg clinch td
< avg shoot td
prefers DUH trips in clinch
< avg clinch tdd
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd
> avg top control
> avg jits
> avg guard passing ability
ok gnp
> avg active guard
good chin
avg cardio




Azamat Gashimov (lacked footy)
==============================
Striker/grappler
aggressive
> avg striker
contact striker
> avg punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos
ok kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
clinch activity ???
ok head movement
ok footwork
ok clinch td/trip
ok shoot td
prefers to shoot for td ???
< avg clinch tdd ???
shoot sl or dl tdd ???
> avg top control
ok jits
> avg guard passing ability
ok gnp
ok active guard
suspect chin
> avg cardio ???






confidence meter:6/10


What the odds Should be:
=========================


azamat gashimov: -150
john lineker: +125




Fabio Maldonado
=================
Striker/grappler
aggressive
decent striker
contact striker
good jab & body shots
decent punching tech.
throws various punching combos
weak kicker
< avg leg kicks
rarely throws kicks
good active striker in the clinch
weak head movement
< avg footwork
ok clinch td/trip
rarely shoots for td
prefers DUH trips in the clinch
< avg clinch tdd
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd
avg top control
avg jits
< avg guard passing ability
> avg gnp
avg active guard
good chin
ok cardio




Roger Hollett
=============
Striker/grappler
counter striker
> avg striker
power > contact
ok punching tech.
heavy handed
throws a 1-2 at most/mostly single strikes
< avg kicker
avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs or body
rarely throws kicks
< avg striker in the clinch
weak head movement
weak footwork
< avg clinch td
weak shoot td
rarely goes for td
weak clinch tdd
weak shoot sl or dl tdd
avg top control
< avg jits
< avg guard passing ability
avg gnp
weak guard
> avg chin
< avg cardio






fabio via ko 3rd round or decision


confidence meter: 7/10


what the odds should be
=========================
fabio -300
roger +250




Hacran Dias
==============
Grappler/striker
tentative counter striker
avg striker
contact striker
avg punching tech.
throws a 1-2 at most
< avg kicker
avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body
rarely kicks
avg striker in the clinch/mainly looks for td
> avg head movement
avg footwork
decent clinch td/trip
ok shoot td
prefers clinch trips
> avg clinch tdd
avg shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
ok jits
ok guard passing ability
ok gnp
guard ???
> avg chin/untested ???
ok cardio




Nick Lentz
===========
Striker/grappler
aggressive
ok striker
contact striker
ok punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos
> avg kicker
> avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
> avg active striker in the clinch
< avg head movement
> avg footwork
decent clinch td/trip
ok shoot td
prefers tds from the clinch
< avg clinch tdd
avg shoot sl or dl tdd
decent top control
> avg jits
> avg guard passing ability
decent gnp
> avg active guard/ active striker
avg chin
> avg cardio






Dias via Decision


confidence meter: 5/10




what the odds should be
========================


dias -130
lents -110




Mike Rio
=========
Grappler/striker
tentative counter striker
avg striker
contact striker
ok punching tech.
throws a 1-2 or 1-2-1 at most
weak kicker
< avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
rarely kicks
< avg striker in the clinch
< avg head movement
< avg footwork
decent clinch td
good shoot td
prefers to shoot for a DL td
avg clinch tdd
avg shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
ok jits
avg guard passing ability
ok gnp
> avg active guard
< avg chin
> avg cardio




Francisco Trinaldo
===================
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
> avg striker
power > contact strikes
heavy handed
weak punching tech.
throws various punching combos
avg kicker
< avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
rarely kicks
< avg striker in the clinch
> avg head movement
ok footwork
ok clinch td
< avg shoot td
prefers clinch tds against the cage
< avg clinch tdd
weak shoot sl or dl tdd
> avg top control
ok jits
ok guard passing ability
decent gnp
avg active guard
avg chin
< avg cardio










rio via dec
confidence meter: 5/10


what the odds should be
=======================
rio -110
trinaldo -110




Yuri Alcantara
===============
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
ok striker
contact striker
< avg punching tech.
throws throws a 1-2 or a 1-2 kick
ok kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
avg striker in the clinch
< avg head movement
avg footwork
ok clinch td
avg shoot td/rarely shoots
prefers clinch td/trips
weak clinch tdd
avg shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
decent jits
decent guard passing ability
good gnp
> avg active guard
good chin
avg cardio




Iliarde Santos
===============
Grappler/striker
counter striker
avg striker
power > contact strikes
< avg punching tech.
throws a 1-2 at most
< avg kicker
avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body
weak striker in the clinch
avg head movement
< avg footwork
avg clinch td
decent shoot td
pulls guard
prefers to shoot for a SL td
< avg clinch tdd
weak shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
ok jits
avg guard passing ability
> avg gnp
avg active guard
< avg chin
avg cardio






confidence meter: 7.5/10


what the odds should be
=======================
yuri alcantara -275
iliarde santos +225








Rafael Natal
=============
switch stance
Striker/grappler
aggressive
ok striker
contact striker
ok punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos
decent kicker
decent leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
> avg striker in the clinch
> avg head movement
ok footwork
ok clinch td
decent shoot td
prefers to shoot for td
> avg clinch tdd
ok shoot sl or dl tdd
decent top control
good jits
decent guard passing ability
decent gnp
ok active guard
< avg chin
ok cardio




Joao Zeferino
=============
Grappler/striker
counter striker
< avg striker
contact striker
< avg punching tech.
throws a 1-2 at most
avg kicker
avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the leg/body/head
weak striker in the clinch/ looks for DL td
< avg head movement
avg footwork
ok clinch td
ok shoot td
prefers to shoot for DL td
clinch tdd ???
avg shoot sl or dl tdd
pulls guard
ok top control
good jits
good guard passing ability
ok gnp
decent active guard
chin ???
cardio ???




Evan Dunham
============
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
decent striker
contact striker
decent punching tech.
throws various punch combos/good 1-2 mainly
> avg kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
avg striker in the clinch
> avg head movement
ok footwork
ok clinch td
decent shoot td
prefers to shoot for a DL td
> avg clinch tdd
avg shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
ok jits
> avg guard passing ability
decent gnp
ok active guard
ok chin
decent cardio




Rafael Dos Anjos
================
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
decent striker
contact striker
avg punching tech.
throws punch/kick combos
decent kicker
good leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
avg clinch strikes/ good knees
decent head movement
good footwork
good clinch td
decent shoot td
prefers to shoot for a DL td against the cage
> avg clinch tdd
ok shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
good jits
good guard passing ability
decent gnp
ok active guard
> avg chin
good cardio






confidence meter: 6.5/10


what the odds should be
========================
RDA -220
Dunham +165






Chris Camozzi
==============
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
ok striker
contact striker
ok punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos
> avg kicker
> avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
> avg striker in the clinch/good knees
< avg head movement
avg footwork
weak clinch td
weak shoot td
rarely attempts td
weak clinch tdd
weak shoot sl or dl tdd
top control ??
> avg jits ???
guard passing ability ???
gnp ???
avg guard
good chin
decent cardio




Ronaldo Souza
==============
Striker/grappler
aggressive
decent striker
contact striker
ok punching tech.
throws a variety of punching combos
ok kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
ok striker in the clinch/good knees
ok head movement
avg footwork
decent clinch td/trip
good shoot td
prefers to shoot a DL td against the cage
avg clinch tdd
shoot sl or dl tdd ???
ok top control
plus jits
good guard passing ability
goodt gnp
good active guard guard
< avg chin
decent cardio



Ronaldo De Souza via Sub 1st




Luke Rockhold
=============
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
good striker
contact striker
heavy handed
good punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos
good kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
ok striker in the clinch/ good knees
ok head movement
avg footwork
> avg clinch td
shoot td
rarely goes for any tds
ok clinch tdd
decent shoot sl or dl tdd
> avg top control
> avg jits
avg guard passing ability
decent gnp
> avg guard
ok chin
good cardio




Vitor Beltfort
==============
southpaw
Striker/grappler
counter striker
decent striker
contact striker
good punching tech.
heavy handed
throws various punching combos
ok kicker
ok leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
< avg striker in the clinch
> avg head movement
avg footwork
> avg clinch td
avg shoot td
pulls guard
prefers to pull guard
weak clinch tdd
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd
> avg top control
ok jits
< avg guard passing ability
> avg gnp
> avg active guard/ good sweeps
< avg chin
avg cardio




Luke Rockhold via KO/TKO


Confidence Meter: 7/10


What the Odds should be
========================
Luke Rockhold -230
Vitor Belfort +190


Luke Rockhold -115 (5 units for 4.4 units)


Luke Rockhold via TKO +530 (0.5 units for 2.6 units)


Mike Rio +250 (0.5 units for 1.2 units)


Hacran Dias +145 (0.5 units for 0.7 units)


Azamat Gashimov +105 (0.5 units 0.5 units)




Parlay ( 2.5 units for 2 units)
================================
Ronaldo Souza -525
Rafael Dos Anjos -190




Parlay (2 units for 1.5 units)
==============================
Yuri Alcantara -385
Fabio Maldonado -260




Parlay (1.8 units for 2 units)
=====================
Luke Rockhold
Ronaldo Souza




Parlay (0.5 units for 1.8 units)
======================
Azamat Gashimov
Hacran Dias




Parlay (1 unit for 1.7 units)
=============================
Rafael Natal -350
Gleison Tibau -285
Paulo Thiago -180




Parlay (1 unit for 0.9 units)
==============================
Ronaldo Souza -525
Jussier Formiga -160




Parlay (1 unit for 12.1 units)
=====================
RDA
Yuri
Tibau
Fabio
Souza ITD
Luke ITD




Hail Mary (0.1 unit for 12.2 units)
===================================
Luke Rockhold -125
Ronaldo Souza -525
Rafael Dos Anjos -190
Mike Rio +250
Hacran Dias +115
Yuri Alcantara -530
Rafael Natal -350
Gleison Tibau -190
Paulo Thiago -180
Fabio Maldonado -260
Azamat Gashimov +110
Jussier Formiga -150

[Beelzebubzy]

What was a 10/10 on your confidence meter?

[mirinquads]

wtf is this shit

[whipton]

my scouting report and plays

@whipthecapper

[whipton]

i've never had a 10/10

Yuri @ 7.5 is the highest of the card. souza would probably be an 8 but i couldn't give you an accurate assessment. i capped souza vs costa before the late scratch while having already capped camozzi vs natal.

[rocky16]

my scouting report and plays

@whipthecapper

Agree with the plays pal. Finally someone around here knows what the fock they're talking about. Bunch of wannabe's around this place pinching each others peckers and loling at bad jokes. Been trying to tell these phagets to play Rockhold and RDA for weeks now. Not sure I know why I even try.

[Hannibal]

penetrate you're that annoying guy from covers.
Your notes are really fducking stupid bro. It really means nothing to list out those points like that.
I'm sure you think you are so clever and those notes help everyone but they don't do shit.
Decent striker, counter striker, contact striker
Wtf does that mean?? Its either vague, uselss generalizations or obvious shit. How is it helpful to point out obvious shit?
Why don't you try to describe how you think the fight plays out??

[Vaughany]

lol

[MD]

My favourite part is where he says Mike Rio is an average striker who has better than average head movement and footwork. Hilarious. Never watched a fight in his life.

[ArchieUD]

Although a longer read than most I think It's more useful than a lot posted on here.. At least It's a good starting point for discussion, no?

[sideloaded]

SBR poster
================
Internet poster
below average intelligence
bad at math
Delusional
no sex life
no money
braggadocios
avg kicker
> avg leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body
does't really check kicks
weak clinch striker/ mainly looks for td
< avg cardio
no footwork
prefers to shoot loads

[Vaughany]

haha

[whipton]

lol wow i guess i getting used getting these mixed reviews. i do my money where. i've had good event ive had bad events. i do know what im talking about when its come to betting on mma.

[MD]

lol wow i guess i getting used getting these mixed reviews. i do my money where. i've had good event ive had bad events. i do know what im talking about when its come to betting on mma.

The issue is that while the formatting of your notes may be useful to you, it doesn't provide any sort of helpful analysis for anyone who's reading it. It's like writing a book on BJJ but having all of the terms replaced with a secret code you invented yourself, so no one can understand what you're referring to.

[Vaughany]

The issue is that while the formatting of your notes may be useful to you, it doesn't provide any sort of helpful analysis for anyone who's reading it. It's like writing a book on BJJ but having all of the terms replaced with a secret code you invented yourself, so no one can understand what you're referring to.

[whipton]

penetrate you're that annoying guy from covers.
Your notes are really fducking stupid bro. It really means nothing to list out those points like that.
I'm sure you think you are so clever and those notes help everyone but they don't do shit.
Decent striker, counter striker, contact striker
Wtf does that mean?? Its either vague, uselss generalizations or obvious shit. How is it helpful to point out obvious shit?
Why don't you try to describe how you think the fight plays out??

everything is subjective. my reports, my picks, my plays... as are yours. which fight do you want to know how "I" think it will most likely play out ?? bro loving these emojis

[whipton]

My favourite part is where he says Mike Rio is an average striker who has better than average head movement and footwork. Hilarious. Never watched a fight in his life.

gray vs guida

if that was the only guida fight you seen. what would the report look like ???

guida
====

good footwork
probably good head movement
< avg - weak striker

any combination of skill sets are possible

peace and love

[whipton]

anybody here actually bet on fights ???

[whipton]

@whipthecapper twitter
whipton tapology

[whipton]

judge me when the events over

BOL cappers

[Hannibal]

gray vs guida

if that was the only guida fight you seen. what would the report look like ???

guida
====

good footwork
probably good head movement
< avg - weak striker

any combination of skill sets are possible

peace and love

his report would probably have a better description of the fighter and his attributes

"good footwork" wtf does that mean? does he move well to evade strikes? to cut of the ring? while he is entering or exiting and exchange? does he move better going forward or backward?
do you see what im getting at?

"weak striker" weak in what aspect? how are his hands? what are his tendencies? where is he effective or not effective??
is this helping you at all??

instead you want to come and attack the entire foru, "does anyone actually bet mma??" cause i do guys i make mad money with my notes

dude you are from covers... take a look at crowat that guy knows whats up

[Hannibal]

judge me when the events over

BOL cappers

even if you hit all picks we still know you are intellectually lacking when you think this type of data is valuable

[Bradbatross]

LMFAO this place is a joke, bunch of penetrating rejects on this forum.

[whipton]

his report would probably have a better description of the fighter and his attributes

"good footwork" wtf does that mean? does he move well to evade strikes? to cut of the ring? while he is entering or exiting and exchange? does he move better going forward or backward?
do you see what im getting at?

"weak striker" weak in what aspect? how are his hands? what are his tendencies? where is he effective or not effective??
is this helping you at all??

instead you want to come and attack the entire foru, "does anyone actually bet mma??" cause i do guys i make mad money with my notes

dude you are from covers... take a look at crowat that guy knows whats up

i see where your coming from in regards to it not being that descriptive. who knows maybe in the future it will be like that. your advice give me something to think about. kudos to you.

that aside dont go by my reports as if their the final say. its just another consistent mma capper's view on a certain skill set of a fighter. interesting take on fight at the least.

[whipton]

take a look at crowat that guy knows whats up

lol you're funny

[rocky16]

LMFAO this place is a joke, bunch of penetrating rejects on this forum.

Fat kid with tittties calling other people rejects. Can't make it up.

[whipton]

anybody have plays ???

[Vaughany]

anybody have plays ???

look in their threads!

[rocky16]

anybody have plays ???

2.5 units Rockhold
2 units RDA

[MD]

gray vs guida

if that was the only guida fight you seen. what would the report look like ???

guida
====

good footwork
probably good head movement
< avg - weak striker

any combination of skill sets are possible

peace and love

I don't write "reports" in the same way you do, I take specific notes. Also, Guida looked awful in that fight. His head movement consisted of just moving his head back and forth as fast as possible with no rhyme or reason. Even Cain Velasquez would be ashamed of Guida's head movement in that fight.

Anyway, you're missing the point: I'm always happy to see people posting their analysis, but the issue is that you're posting your thoughts in a format that no one can really gather anything useful from. I like your attitude though.

Also I check the forum section of Sherdog maybe once a week, and I saw a thread you started. Funny coincidence.

Why not post the plays that you feel confident in, and use your "scouting report" to form an analysis of those fights, which you could then post? Instead of posting ">avg footwork", you could say something like "I think ____ lacks in the footwork department and ___ will be able to exploit that".

[Beelzebubzy]

Jones was a 9/10 on my confidence scale because I knew with a nickname like bones eventually he breaks something b

[whipton]

I don't write "reports" in the same way you do, I take specific notes. Also, Guida looked awful in that fight. His head movement consisted of just moving his head back and forth as fast as possible with no rhyme or reason. Even Cain Velasquez would be ashamed of Guida's head movement in that fight.

Anyway, you're missing the point: I'm always happy to see people posting their analysis, but the issue is that you're posting your thoughts in a format that no one can really gather anything useful from. I like your attitude though.

Also I check the forum section of Sherdog maybe once a week, and I saw a thread you started. Funny coincidence.

Why not post the plays that you feel confident in, and use your "scouting report" to form an analysis of those fights, which you could then post? Instead of posting ">avg footwork", you could say something like "I think ____ lacks in the footwork department and ___ will be able to exploit that".

i feel confident in all plays i make plays on. to tell you the truth i use that confidence meter because by the time the odds come out i would have already capped the fight and would forget how confident i was in the pick.

i knew gsp would be a lock over diaz but i still put down 8/10 ...... i haven't used the word "lock" ever since lytle vs ebersole

[Kaladarus]

Very interesting what you think the lines should be and how that corresponds to your bets.

[whipton]

BOL today on your plays cappers

[whipton]

It's Time

@whipthecapper