[Johnnythunder]

i have Khan -1200 over Diaz
Martinez -800 over Murray


These are to close out a 15 leg parlay that pays 800ish

Whats the danger level here of an upset and which one has the better chance of being upset.

[NunyaBidness]

Has your opinion on the fights changed since you placed the bet?

If not, hedging is either a mistake now, or placing the bets into a parlay originally was a mistake.

[ArchieUD]

Is 800ish a substantial amount to you? If not, let it ride. Good luck

[Johnnythunder]

I know nothing about these fighters. Parlay was for only 10 bucks and i included some big boxing favs...
are any of them live dogs is what im asking

[NunyaBidness]

Has your opinion on the fights changed since you placed the bet?

If not, hedging is either a mistake now, or placing the bets into a parlay originally was a mistake.

still this

[Johnnythunder]

Anyone with a clue want to chime in please....

[MD]

I know nothing about these fighters. Parlay was for only 10 bucks and i included some big boxing favs...
are any of them live dogs is what im asking

If you were going to hedge out when your parlay got close to hitting, you should have just excluded the last legs from the parlay in the first place. Why pay the juice on both sides?

The correct move is almost always to let it ride, from a pure +EV perspective.

[Johnnythunder]

MD....i know....i put it in hastily while on tilt...looking for someone who has a clue about boxing here in the boxing forum...anyone

[NunyaBidness]

Anyone with a clue want to chime in please....

Delicious irony.

[NunyaBidness]

MD....i know....i put it in hastily while on tilt...looking for someone who has a clue about boxing here in the boxing forum...anyone

Khan wins 90% of the time, Martinez wins 85% of the time. The market already told you that.

[Johnnythunder]

Khan wins 90% of the time, Martinez wins 85% of the time. The market already told you that.

And your user name and comments tell me how worthless anything coming out of your mouth is...shut the penetrate up and let someone with a clue interject

[NunyaBidness]

And your user name and comments tell me how worthless anything coming out of your mouth is...shut the penetrate up and let someone with a clue interject

Just hedge the parlay like the big pussy you are.

Losing your shit over the chance of winning $800.

[MD]

And your user name and comments tell me how worthless anything coming out of your mouth is...shut the penetrate up and let someone with a clue interject

I already gave you your answer. If you want to maximize your profitability, let it ride. Nunya's a guy you should listen to, though. Easily the most knowledgeable guy in this subforum.

The boxing market thinks that Martinez wins almost 90% of the time, while Khan wins over 90% of the time. The market price is a representation of all of the money on any given side*, +- vig. That is to say, if Khan is -1200, that is because the public, including all of the sharps betting large amounts of money on the fight, and the casuals, as of this point, believe that the fair price for Khan is -1200. That's a far more accurate answer that one or two guys giving you their personal opinion with no way of knowing how reputable it is, don't you think?

*To a degree. Books can also take a side and throw the price off a bit.

To put it in a way you may understand, the odds of your parlay cashing are about -450, so there's about an 82% chance of winning $800, and an 18% chance of you losing $10 and breaking down and crying like a little girl.

[NunyaBidness]

I already gave you your answer. If you want to maximize your profitability, let it ride. Nunya's a guy you should listen to, though. Easily the most knowledgeable guy in this subforum.

The boxing market thinks that Martinez wins almost 90% of the time, while Khan wins over 90% of the time. The market price is a representation of all of the money on any given side*, +- vig. That is to say, if Khan is -1200, that is because the public, including all of the sharps betting large amounts of money on the fight, and the casuals, as of this point, believe that the fair price for Khan is -1200. That's a far more accurate answer that one or two guys giving you their personal opinion with no way of knowing how reputable it is, don't you think?

*To a degree. Books can also take a side and throw the price off a bit.

To put it in a way you may understand, the odds of your parlay cashing are about -450.

If you would've fit in a way to call him a pussy, I might've nominated this post.

[MD]

If you would've fit in a way to call him a pussy, I might've nominated this post.

Where are my manors. FMP.

[Grabaka]

Anyone with a clue want to chime in please....

LOL dissing nunya FTW

Maybe he wants this:

"Grab your huevos and ride it" "penetrate the world"

[NunyaBidness]

Where are my manors. FMP.

Keep building that bankroll, you'll have a manor soon enough.

[Grabaka]

If you would've fit in a way to call him a pussy, I might've nominated this post.

What if he fitted pussy besides your name?

[Grabaka]

And your user name and comments tell me how worthless anything coming out of your mouth is...shut the penetrate up and let someone with a clue interject

[NunyaBidness]

Typical conversation on this forum:

newb: Can I have a dollar.
me: No, but I'll show you how to make an extra $5 a day for the rest of your life.
newb: penetrate you, will somebody give me a dollar?

[MD]

Nunya, help me out bruhv. If I want to bet two method of victory props, what's the easiest way to calculate the combined odds I'm getting? For example, if I'm betting on Jones by TKO +150 and submission at whatever stupid odds it's at, what's the fastest way to calculate the odds I'm getting on Jones by TKO or Submission? I generally convert both props to percentages, sum, and convert the product back to odds, then bet both sides in such a way that each gives an equal payout. Am I doing this wrong? Or inefficiently?

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya, help me out bruhv. If I want to bet two method of victory props, what's the easiest way to calculate the combined odds I'm getting? For example, if I'm betting on Jones by TKO +150 and submission at whatever stupid odds it's at, what's the fastest way to calculate the odds I'm getting on Jones by TKO or Submission? I generally convert both props to percentages, sum, and convert the product back to odds, then bet both sides in such a way that each gives an equal payout. Am I doing this wrong? Or inefficiently?

If I'm understanding you correctly, that's definitely wrong.

The super quick way is to just use the arbitrage calculator

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

The Total Bet field will then be what you are risking, to win the $ Profit.

Convert to odds from there.

For example Let's say you want to see if its better to bet Jones ITD or Jones by KO at +150 with Jones by sub at EV.

Enter $100 as bet one, enter Line #1 at +150, enter Line #2 at +100.

Click calculate. It will give you:

Bet #2: $500
Total Bet: $900
$Profit: $100
%Profit: 11.1111%

So, in this case you are risking $900 to win $100 by playing those two props rather than the ITD price of -450 or whatever it is.

This is easily tested by seeing, that if Jones doesn't win inside the distance you lose both bets for -$900.

If Jones wins by KO you win ($400x1.50)-$500 = $100
If Jones wins by sub you win ($500x1.00)-$400 = $100

[getlucky2win]

boxing is rigged. u should def hedge

[Grabaka]

boxing is rigged. u should def hedge

But they rig it to the side of the star. Martinez and Khan are safe.

[MD]

If I'm understanding you correctly, that's definitely wrong.

The super quick way is to just use the arbitrage calculator

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

The Total Bet field will then be what you are risking, to win the $ Profit.

Convert to odds from there.

For example Let's say you want to see if its better to bet Jones ITD or Jones by KO at +150 with Jones by sub at EV.

Enter $100 as bet one, enter Line #1 at +150, enter Line #2 at +100.

Click calculate. It will give you:

Bet #2: $500
Total Bet: $900
$Profit: $100
%Profit: 11.1111%

So, in this case you are risking $900 to win $100 by playing those two props rather than the ITD price of -450 or whatever it is.

This is easily tested by seeing, that if Jones doesn't win inside the distance you lose both bets for -$900.

If Jones wins by KO you win ($400x1.50)-$500 = $100
If Jones wins by sub you win ($500x1.00)-$400 = $100

That seems faster; appreciate it, thanks Nunya. You can have all of my available betpoints.

Wasn't the method I posted still correct, though? Jones by KO +150 = 40%, Jones by sub +100 = 50%. .4 + .5 = .9, or -900.

[NunyaBidness]

Wasn't the method I posted still correct, though? Jones by KO +150 = 40%, Jones by sub +100 = 50%. .4 + .5 = .9, or -900.

Well for one, you didn't mention you were taking the inverse of it at the end.