[jakejd82]

I have been casually betting on MMA for about three years and been a big fan for much longer. I always have just deposited a little and lived by the "Go Big or Go Home" motto, meaning I would either go completely bust or try to parlay my initial deposit 10-20x. I never really tracked my plays over a long period of time and in actuality dont feel like I have any advantage what so ever over the books but I love MMA and love the action and have the disposable income so win or lose it wont greatly affect my life. I recently got incredibly lucky and hit a very large (by my standards) 10-fight parlay over the course of UFC 156, UFC on Fuel 7, UFC 157 and the Shamhalaev Bellator fight. Anyways, I decided to actually keep a bank on 5dimes and try to for the first time maintain bankroll management from event to event so I decided to track my plays on here. Feel free to critique my plays, I love a good mma discussion.

Here goes nothing...

UFC on Fuel 8

Tokudome +110 2 to win 2.2
Mizugaki -210 2.1 to win 1
Tavares -120 1.2 to win 1
Kim -290 2.9 to win 1
Hirota -120 1.2 to win 1
Okami +180 2 to win 3.6
Struve -180 1.8 to win 1
Stann -260 2.6 to win 1

Might play Sanchez closer to fight if his line keeps dropping because of missing weight.

Like I said before, I love action.

Sorry for the long read and good luck to everyone on this great MMA card.

[Sacrelicious]

Solid picks, I've only got one play different then yours, should be a good night.

[jakejd82]

Solid picks, I've only got one play different then yours, should be a good night.

[BIGDAY]

Hope you kill the books tonight brotha!!

[jakejd82]

Hope you kill the books tonight brotha!!

Thanks man, just hoping its a fun card. A lot of exciting matchups ! Good luck to you Bigday

[MD]

Really like your candidness. 90% of bettors think they have an edge over the books simply because they watch a lot of MMA, and they end up never working on their gambling ability and losing horribly because of it. Glad to hear you won't be going down that route.

I wish you well on your plays, although Tokudome is awful and should get crushed tonight. The rest are solid I think.

[jakejd82]

Thanks MD Good luck on your plays tonight ! Really excited for this card tonight, should be fireworks.

Marcello's obviously has superior ground game, I just think that his willingness to brawl will get the best of him and Tokudome has an advantage on the feet. That being said, if Marcello fights a smart fight and gets it to the ground then Tokudome will be lost. Either way should be an interesting fight.

[MD]

Thanks MD Good luck on your plays tonight ! Really excited for this card tonight, should be fireworks.

Marcello's obviously has superior ground game, I just think that his willingness to brawl will get the best of him and Tokudome has an advantage on the feet. That being said, if Marcello fights a smart fight and gets it to the ground then Tokudome will be lost. Either way should be an interesting fight.

I think Marcello has a huge edge on the feet. It might be the only fight he could have in the UFC in which he has a definite edge standing. Tokudome is a Judo fighter, not a striker; if he can control Marcello to a boring decision, he can win, but that's the only chance I give him outside of a very lucky KO, personally.

[jakejd82]

I have only seen three of Tokudome's fights but I completely disagree with you here. Tokudome has a great cross and is very good in the clinch and is also one of the better fighters in Pancrase, not to mention he is 10 years younger. I believe if Marcello doesnt land something big early, he will try to turn this into a grappling match and if he does then he could be very successful. This is what I love about MMA, two people can see the same fight very differently. We will both find out in about 8 hours. Good luck with your bet.

[NunyaBidness]

I have only seen three of Tokudome's fights but I completely disagree with you here. Tokudome has a great cross and is very good in the clinch and is also one of the better fighters in Pancrase, not to mention he is 10 years younger. I believe if Marcello doesnt land something big early, he will try to turn this into a grappling match and if he does then he could be very successful. This is what I love about MMA, two people can see the same fight very differently. We will both find out in about 8 hours. Good luck with your bet.

Tokudome's offense looks alright, but his defense everywhere is terrible. He keeps his head straight up and gets rocked seemingly with every shot. On the ground he constantly posts his hands begging to get caught.

Having said that, Marcello is terrible.

[MD]

I think there's one thing we can all agree on: this might be the least-skilled fight in modern MMA, certainly top 10.

[Bradbatross]

Tokudome's offense looks alright, but his defense everywhere is terrible. He keeps his head straight up and gets rocked seemingly with every shot. On the ground he constantly posts his hands begging to get caught.

Having said that, Marcello is terrible.

If what you said is true about the other guy Marcello should be able to get a decision.

[Sacrelicious]

Any plays tonight Brad? Also, I propose a truce, I'll stop bugging you about Ebersole.

[Beelzebubzy]

Im confused. A poster posts his plays and admits he is not a great gambler, capper, and arguably the best? Is this SBR? Am I drunk?

[Bradbatross]

Any plays tonight Brad? Also, I propose a truce, I'll stop bugging you about Ebersole.

Lol k I accept the truce. I'm on a couple guys tonight. I'm most confident about Hirota, I think he bullies Yahya to a decision. I also like Sanchez, Kim, Lombard and Tavares.

[jakejd82]

Im confused. A poster posts his plays and admits he is not a great gambler, capper, and arguably the best? Is this SBR? Am I drunk?

LOL, just trying to keep it real. Love the sport of MMA and I love talking about it. There are so many variables in an mma fight that makes it hard to predict and brings up different opinions from different people. Good luck on your fights tonight Beelze !

[jakejd82]

Just got back from seeing zero dark thirty with the fiance (good movie but kinda long), got a case of beer, and have my a$$ firmly planted on the couch for the next 8 hours. Here's to great fights !

[BIGDAY]

Jake's one of the good guys.

Beers are going down good today.

[jakejd82]

Tokudome +110 2 to win 2.2
Mizugaki -210 2.1 to win 1
Tavares -120 1.2 to win 1
Kim -290 2.9 to win 1
Hirota -120 1.2 to win 1
Okami +180 2 to win 3.6
Struve -180 1.8 to win 1
Stann -260 2.6 to win 1

Adding
Sanchez -210 2.1 to win 1
Caceres -105 1.05 to win 1
another unit on Stun Gun -200 2 to win 1

[jakejd82]

Jake's one of the good guys.

Beers are going down good today.

Just polished off the first one, went down way too easy ! One hour til game time

[jakejd82]

First bet is a winner ! Didnt agree with the decision, but sometimes its better to be lucky then good !

[MD]

Great job man, looks like you had a very good night. I thought a lot of the decisions were questionable though. Happy you cashed buddy.

[jakejd82]

Tokudome +110 2 to win 2.2 W2.2
Mizugaki -210 2.1 to win 1 W1
Tavares -120 1.2 to win 1 W1
Kim -290 2.9 to win 1 W1
Hirota -120 1.2 to win 1 L1.2
Okami +180 2 to win 3.6 W3.6
Struve -180 1.8 to win 1 L1.8
Stann -260 2.6 to win 1 L2.6
Sanchez -210 2.1 to win 1 W1
Caceres -105 1.05 to win 1 W1
Stun Gun -200 2 to win 1 W1

UFC on Fuel 8 +6.2
Overall +6.2

Overall a very good night, my three best bets Tokudome, Kim, and Okami all looked like great bets and looked almost exactly like I thought would. I was very fortunate on a few close split decisions (Caceres, Mizugaki, Sanchez, Okami) so this very easily couldve been an even or negative day but ill take the split decisions. I personally Scored Caceres, Mizugaki and Sanchez as losers but there was NO way Okami lost one of the first two rounds, so how that was a split decision I have no idea.

I personally dont feel that MMA judging is that awful ( I know im in the HUGE minority here). Although there are some horrendous decisions like Garcia vs. Pham, Joe Warren vs. Galvao, Bisping vs. Hamill etc. the list is few and far between. The criteria for what wins a round needs to be better explained. Judge A could score takedown worth as much as knockdown. Judge B could score Octagon Control and aggression over crisp effective striking and Judge C could score for the fighter on top in someones guard rather then the guy working from the bottom(guard is supposed to be considered a neutral position). I think the judges really need to be educated better, other then that there is just to many variables in an mma fight. Also I feel if people have money on the fight and they are on the wrong end of close fight then it is considered Highway robbery. The truth of the matter is Caceres vs. Kang was close and so was Mizugaki vs. Caraway, I personally scored them both the other way but they were by no means robbery. On another note, Meisha Tate should never corner her Caraway(her boyfriend) again. She basically told him to coast in the third round which in turn lost him the fight, she is clearly bias and cost him a well deserved W.

Struve really surprised me, his game plan was atrocious at best. Looked to be incredibly gassed after the first round. Silva didnt really surprise me that much, the guy is an animal. I thought Stann would fight a smarter fight but regardless that was a bad bet that I definitly shouldve stayed away from.

Hope everyone did well !

Incredibly fun card none the less and I look forward to continuing my good fortune. I will probably place a couple bets on Bellator but other then that, there is a couple of big ones I really like the lines at UFC 158 (Condit and Ellenberger).

Have a good week gentlemen !

[jakejd82]

Great job man, looks like you had a very good night. I thought a lot of the decisions were questionable though. Happy you cashed buddy.

Thanks man, hope you did good as well, the only decision that really surprised me was Sanchez as I felt Gomi was quicker to the punch and did more damage for most of the fight. I scored Kang and Caraway as winners but wasnt surprised either way. How a judge scored one of the first two rounds for Lombard I have NO idea but that can sometimes be mma judging.

[Sacrelicious]

Very well played man, good work.

[jakejd82]

Very well played man, good work.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. Good hit on Okami !

[BIGDAY]

I think Jake stays HOT for at least a few events.

[Grabaka]

I think Jake stays HOT for at least a few events.

Pouuund him!
Congrats J

[Beelzebubzy]

Good job!

[jakejd82]

Thanks guys for the support on the last card, I have four plays for Bellator 92.

Khasbulev -110 1.1 to win 1
Bezerra -130 1.3 to win 1
Aliev -330 1.65 to win .5
Cooper -150 1.5 to win 1

Unfortunately I will not be watching the card tonight (got an early morning) but I will be recording it and watching it tomorrow before work. Hope this card is as sick as the last two bellator cards.

I will be keeping an eye on the Condit and Ellenberger lines as I really like both of them. I really think that Condit is a significantly better fighter then Hendricks. I will be placing a LARGE (by my standards) bet on both these guys (possibly hedging a little bit on Hendricks in the first(I know im square) as I really see that as the only way he wins) but I will wait til closer to the card because I think the public will be big on Hendricks for sure and probably Marquardt also. Really interested in seeing where the Cruickshank/Makdessi line opens up at. Im a big fan of Cruickshank and have been attending mma classes that he teaches nearby, also he wrestled with my brother-in-law's brother in high school so I have been following his career for awhile now. I think he is a better and more athletic fighter but his lack of legitimate camp scares me, especially vs. Makdessi.... Hope he has a nice game plan. Sorry for the rant
Good luck to everyone

[Bradbatross]

I'm with you on 3 of those guys. I thought Cooper looked horrible in last fight.

[jakejd82]

Definitely didn't look great. But I try to never look too much into one single outing. Good luck on your bets tonight brad !

[Bradbatross]

You too, as long as Frodo, Bezerra and Aliev wins I'll be happy.

[jakejd82]

Well a little bit of a lackluster card with ALOT of fighters gassing very early. This card I was on the wrong end of two close split decisions.


I personally thought Bezerra won the first and third round and shouldve got the nod 29-28 but it was by no means robbery as the third was very close with neither fighter doing much damage. I got lucky as hell with Brett Cooper as Cramer was obviously the right play but ill take a hail mary ko in the third any day. Marshall vs. Aliev was an AWFUL fight, and I dont only blame Aliev as most people seem to be. I scored it 30-27 for Aliev as he controlled the better part of every round, but this is a clear cut bad matchup. Aliev was obviously scared to engage on the feet and Marshall's take down defense and grappling was HORRIBLE at best. Aliev was clearly gassed and did almost NO damage at all the entire fight but controlled Marshall and Marshall only landed a few decent shots, but this is where judging gets tricky. I personally am happy Aliev lost because Marshall vs. Cooper will be a much more exciting finals. Frodo was the bet I was most confident in and did exactly what I thought he would do. Sandro looked slow and old the entire fight. Frodo was the only one of the eight fighters that impressed me at all, do you see any of the four fighters that won being threatening at all to the respective champions? I know people dont like it but the talent level between UFC and Bellator is clear as day. I love Bellator and think it is great for the sport and produces some amazing match ups but the talent level is simply not there.

Khasbulev -110 1.1 to win 1 +1 Unit
Bezerra -130 1.3 to win 1 -1.3 Units
Aliev -330 1.65 to win .5 -1.65 Units
Cooper -150 1.5 to win 1 +1 Unit


Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +5.25 Units

Hope everyone else did better then me !

[jakejd82]

I'm with you on 3 of those guys. I thought Cooper looked horrible in last fight.

Cramer was clearly the right play. Tough luck man