1. 02-01-13 11:35 PM #1
    Sacrelicious
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    Betting Strategy for Edgar/Aldo

    Howdy all, hope you are all getting as excited as I am for tomorrows card. Personally, I have not been this excited since Fox 5.

    Anyway, just wanted to share a thought with you guys on betting strategy for the Edgar/Aldo fight. I have yet to lay down any money on the fight, still pondering what the best approach is.

    I had the foresight to throw Aldo in the last leg of some mega favorite parlays, which, provided that a couple things go as planned tomorrow, will give me a ton of value on him to act as a hedge against my Edgar bet. That being said, a thought occured to me. Has anyone thought of taking out a play on Aldo, and live betting Edgar live between rounds? Bear with me here, but given Edgar's tendencies I think we can all safely be in agreement that there is a good chance he loses round 1 and/or 2.

    My thought is to wait for him to get clipped hard a few times, with any luck his line will shoot up to +400-500, at this point I intend to pound it with my initial play on Aldo around -200 acting as a hedge (as well as some of the parlays). Insofar as I see it, worst case scenario Aldo breaks even. In the off chance that Edgar does NOT lose round 1 or 2, I still have a sizable bet on Aldo which is, for all intents and purposes, still a solid enough play to stand on its own.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this? I initially thought it might be a bit of a stretch but the more I think about it the more it seems to make sense to me.

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  2. 02-01-13 11:51 PM #2
    Hannibal
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sacrelicious View Post

    I had the foresight to throw Aldo in the last leg of some mega favorite parlays, which, provided that a couple things go as planned tomorrow, will give me a ton of value on him to act as a hedge against my Edgar bet.
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  3. 02-01-13 11:54 PM #3
    Sacrelicious
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    Not sure whats so funny. I made those parlays under the assumption that Aldo would likely lose to allow me to reinvest into Edgar at a much better line but still have my losses covered should Edgar shit the bed.

    Elaborate?
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  4. 02-02-13 12:33 AM #4
    KushMoney
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    Aldo by Decision bro



    Just bet on that Prop and forget the rest
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  5. 02-02-13 12:45 AM #5
    Sacrelicious
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    I dont like it, aldo can get a TKO.
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  6. 02-02-13 12:46 AM #6
    Sacrelicious
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    I think scraping my own parlay is the best option here, with a slight lean on edgar to make some profit, this fight is just too close to call. Prop betting here seems like an absolutely terrible idea.
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  7. 02-02-13 12:56 AM #7
    Bradbatross
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    This fight isn't close at all....
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  8. 02-02-13 12:57 AM #8
    KushMoney
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    It's Aldo by Decision because he's gonna win and Frankie has a TON of heart and will give him a fight for 25 min..

    Maybe Frankie by Decision... would be the "Holy fukk" moment of the night. He'd have to pip-pap his way through Aldo decisively for 25 minutes... likely NOT gonna happen. Aldo is going to fight well for 25 minutes.
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  9. 02-02-13 01:05 AM #9
    Sacrelicious
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    I'll just arb it...seems to make the most sense
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  10. 02-02-13 01:15 AM #10
    Bradbatross
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    Aldo is going to consistently land hard shots on Frankie. I think it ends in the second round.
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  11. 02-02-13 01:19 AM #11
    Sacrelicious
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bradbatross View Post
    Aldo is going to consistently land hard shots on Frankie. I think it ends in the second round.
    Not a chance. Only person who could pull that kind of domination would be Ebersole.
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  12. 02-02-13 01:21 AM #12
    Bradbatross
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    Well that was his second fight in 1 month. He obviously didn't take it very seriously.
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  13. 02-02-13 01:36 AM #13
    ShotgunRua
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    Hi mate, I've not been around much but yeah, very excited for this event! I'm not sure if I want to bet on this event, I can make money on other sports and just enjoy MMA too much to risk not enjoying a fight because I have a bet on the losing guy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sacrelicious View Post
    I had the foresight to throw Aldo in the last leg of some mega favorite parlays, which, provided that a couple things go as planned tomorrow, will give me a ton of value on him to act as a hedge against my Edgar bet. That being said, a thought occured to me. Has anyone thought of taking out a play on Aldo, and live betting Edgar live between rounds? Bear with me here, but given Edgar's tendencies I think we can all safely be in agreement that there is a good chance he loses round 1 and/or 2.
    Dude, please explain the logic here? If you parlay some favourites, all the money you made from that bet going into the Aldo/Edgar fight is your money..... Because Aldo is the last leg of the parlays, you are taking your entire accumulated winnings, and putting them on the guy you are generally betting against?

    Why not just make the exact same parlay but leave out the main event if you're not feeling confident about the outcome?
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  14. 02-02-13 01:46 AM #14
    Sacrelicious
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    Its totally questionable, I dont know what the hell I'm thinking. I took my mega favorite parlays and in addition to making them, made an additional parlay at much less money with aldo added in, its to the point where i can freeroll a solid bet at edgar, which I intend to take between round 1 and 2 or 2 and 3 under the hope that hes been tagged a few times and his line has shot up, and either way I make a profit. I'm probably overcomplicating things far too much.
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  15. 02-02-13 01:47 AM #15
    Sacrelicious
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    Also, good to see you back. I was worried the illuminati had killed you.
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  16. 02-02-13 07:48 AM #16
    Kaffe
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    Have the odds on Aldo gotten markedly worse since you put him in a parlay, Sacrelicious? If not, you definitely do NOT have any value in betting Edgar. You are def not freerolling your Edgar bet.

    Edit: I see you think Maia at +186ish is among the worst bets on the card. What is your breakdown of the fight?
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  17. 02-02-13 02:38 PM #17
    Sacrelicious
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    Real simple, Fitch grinds out another Fitch style decision. I give him the edge in standup, speed, and stamina. He said something very interesting on the countdown show which I have always suspected, that he will simply give his opponents subs so that they tire themselves and when he finally breaks out, he is in superior position. I do not think Maia can sub him, and I think that is Maia's only hope of securing a victory.

    Look for Maia to be very tired by rd 3 and Fitch to take full advantage with some G and P. For the record, I did correct myself, Green is the worst bet on the card, Maia is the 2nd worst.
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  18. 02-02-13 02:52 PM #18
    Bradbatross
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    I completely stayed away from the Maia fight. Maia at WW in the first round is incredibly dangerous. If it goes past the first it's all Fitch.
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  19. 02-02-13 02:54 PM #19
    Kaffe
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    I see. What if Maia is up two rounds when he presumably gasses/Fitch turns it up? Maia has taken down Sonnen, DHK and Story. He is also fully capable of getting top position/back mount and riding it out the round if the sub isn't there. Fitch may be really good at defending subs, but that won't matter if Maia plays it safe when in dominant positions. It is very important to remember that Fitch does not have the luxury of easily keeping the fight where he wants it to be. I think Fitch should be the slight favorite due to Maia's questionable gas tank, but at +186, Maia is among the better bets on the card imo. Have bet him (half of it at +150 tho) and hedged with Fitch decision at +123. If Fitch finishes Maia I'm ****** twice over.

    Anyways, have a great night!
    Last edited by Kaffe; 02-02-13 at 02:57 PM.
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  20. 02-02-13 03:00 PM #20
    Bradbatross
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    The only thing I'm concerned about is Maia's gas tank. If he was known to have at least a decent tank I'd be all over him.
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  21. 02-02-13 03:00 PM #21
    The iron sheik
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    strategy as follows:
    1)sell silverware, furniture, pimp out the wife or gf (if you have one)
    2)all-in, balls deep on aldo
    3)profit
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  22. 02-02-13 03:06 PM #22
    Sacrelicious
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    Solid strategy, the line on Edgar has fallen. I have no cash on him, but I will put some on him between rounds if it skyrockets. That being said, it will only be a hedge against my Aldo parlays. Profit either way..... yeah I'll take that.
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  23. 02-02-13 03:12 PM #23
    Sacrelicious
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaffe View Post
    I see. What if Maia is up two rounds when he presumably gasses/Fitch turns it up? Maia has taken down Sonnen, DHK and Story. He is also fully capable of getting top position/back mount and riding it out the round if the sub isn't there. Fitch may be really good at defending subs, but that won't matter if Maia plays it safe when in dominant positions. It is very important to remember that Fitch does not have the luxury of easily keeping the fight where he wants it to be. I think Fitch should be the slight favorite due to Maia's questionable gas tank, but at +186, Maia is among the better bets on the card imo. Have bet him (half of it at +150 tho) and hedged with Fitch decision at +123. If Fitch finishes Maia I'm ****** twice over.

    Anyways, have a great night!
    Fortunately, I got Fitch at -165, I'm not betting current lines. Have a good night too man, lets bank it either way.


    Also, welcome to SBR!
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  24. 02-02-13 05:17 PM #24
    KushMoney
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    Did you bet Aldo by Decision yet?


    That's the only betting strategy for this fight.


    Hedged with Edgar PK
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  25. 02-02-13 06:17 PM #25
    Sacrelicious
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    No, straight up, I've been ****** by props too many time.
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  26. 02-02-13 06:22 PM #26
    onacloud
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    Edgar is going to win this one got him +205 wish I would've put more down already kicking myself
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  27. 02-03-13 12:24 AM #27
    Kaffe
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    Edgar did come back stronger as you predicted Sacrelicious. Did you hedge out or ride your Aldo cash into the sunset?

    Sorry about Fitch. Did the rest of the event go well?
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