After rewatching a few fights, I'm on Bisping.
Vitor had very fast hands in 1997, and he is still a threat standing. I feel that now he has slowed down to such an extent that Bisping will be able to avoid getting clipped and outbox him. Even if Bisping loses round 1, he will seriously test Vitor's cardio and will
definitely take 2 & 3.
Vitor also has a very dangerous BJJ game, as evidenced in the Jones fight. Bisping however is a very different fighter to Jones, he won't be looking for top control and can scramble like a mad man when he needs to. If Bisping can keep Sonnen off him for 3 rounds, I really don't think Vitor will be able to mount any grappling offense.
It's a cliche, but Bisping by decision or Vitor ITD. Personally after giving this some thought and looking at Vitor's recent performances I think there is significant value in Bisping. I think making Bones look human, doing damage, and lasting until the 4th has caused people to overestimate his abilities. If it weren't for the Jones fight I think Bisping would have opened at -140ish. If you look at that fight, he caught Jones, (an aggressive wrestler who looks for prolonged top control and leaves his long limbs out there) in an armbar he was unable to finish. He did nothing else all fight except flop onto his back in the hope Jones would be retarded enough to give him another arm.
I'll be throwing at least 2.5 units on The Count. Looking at my track record the last 2 events the smart play is clearly to pound Vitor.