[MD]

Recently I've been reading a lot as to why JDS is such a favourite over Velasquez; in truth, it's an ultra-competitive fight that will leave the winner with almost no remaining viable challengers. Overeem is the only immediate threat, with Cormier being widely considered a darkhorse. Let's make two propositions, first, before we begin, which we will assume to be true: 1) Junior dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez has improved in the time since their first fight, and 2) the results of the first fight do not have much, if any, influence on the likelihood of either fighter winning this fight. For the purpose of this thread, we have to assume that both of these are true. If you think that one of these two isn't true (or, most importantly, that you believe that the second is not true), then this thread probably won't interest you very much. This thread specifically addresses those who are betting on Dos Santos, with the belief that the first fight did not influence their handicapping of the fight.

We'll assume that, given the betting lines, the betting public believes that Dos Santos' win over Cain in the first fight was no fluke and is likely to be repeated in their rematch. Most sharps don't believe this, presumably, and neither do most of the posters on this forum, from what I've seen. From those I've spoken to on the boards and through PM, most seem to agree that the results of the first fight won't be a factor in handicapping this fight. There are psychological aspects to consider, but who they favour is a matter of opinion. Regardless, most of the heavy JDS backers believe Dos Santos will win convincingly, and not due to the outcome of the first fight, but due to the stylistic matchup, which they believe to favour Dos Santos.

If this is true, the sharp money is, theory-wise, almost always on Cain Velasquez.

If we assume that these things are true, that the first fight is irrelevant due to the multiple injuries (Cain was coming off of a 90% rotator cuff tear, and a video recently surfaced of him supposedly blowing out his ACL shortly before the fight; there were also rumours that Cain attempted to pull out of the fight, but was told he could not), and if it is true that Junior Dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez, then the only possible reason for the shift in odds is that the betting public is driving the money in the wrong direction due to misinterpretation of the available information. I'll simplify this last part as best I can, as otherwise I'll just go on a math-based ramble, but consider this: if we assume that Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos is almost exactly the same as it was the first time, as if the first fight had never happened and the results of it have no impact on this fight, then you are receiving a fighter who, in the first fight, was at very best -120, for odds upwards of +160, and a fighter who was available at +135 in the first fight at odds of -180. Consider if the lines for St-Pierre vs Matt Sera were opened immediately after the first fight, with Serra close to even money, or a favourite. If the results of the first fight truly do not matter, how can you pass on getting a line at +164, on which the true market value, when we remove these variables which we consider to be irrelevant, is -120? Conversely, how can we wager on a fighter whose true market value was considered to be +135 at -180?

I'm not making a statement as to who I think will win (it's Cain, solidly), but the point is not about who I think will win, it's about the fact that if we exclude these variables as irrelevant (which many of you will), you're getting Junior dos Santos, a fighter whose market value is +135, at -180, and you're getting Cain Velasquez, a fighter whose market value is -120, at +164, and likely better closer to fight night. Make of that what you will.

[KushMoney]

This fight is crazy, because IMO, there's value on both sides.

Cain as a dog, tremendous value.

JDS, undefeated in the UFC at -185, or -145 ITD. Also great value.



I'll go with Cain, should take this fight by utilizing a great gameplan, and watching lots of tape on JDS and figuring out a way to get inside and land a big series of punches and finally knock him down.. Once he knocks him down, he will finish.

[Mercersux]

Recently I've been reading a lot as to why JDS is such a favourite over Velasquez; in truth, it's an ultra-competitive fight that will leave the winner with almost no remaining viable challengers. Overeem is the only immediate threat, with Cormier being widely considered a darkhorse. Let's make two propositions, first, before we begin, which we will assume to be true: 1) Junior dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez has improved in the time since their first fight, and 2) the results of the first fight do not have much, if any, influence on the likelihood of either fighter winning this fight. For the purpose of this thread, we have to assume that both of these are true. If you think that one of these two isn't true (or, most importantly, that you believe that the second is not true), then this thread probably won't interest you very much. This thread specifically addresses those who are betting on Dos Santos, with the belief that the first fight did not influence their handicapping of the fight.

We'll assume that, given the betting lines, the betting public believes that Dos Santos' win over Cain in the first fight was no fluke and is likely to be repeated in their rematch. Most sharps don't believe this, presumably, and neither do most of the posters on this forum, from what I've seen. From those I've spoken to on the boards and through PM, most seem to agree that the results of the first fight won't be a factor in handicapping this fight. There are psychological aspects to consider, but who they favour is a matter of opinion. Regardless, most of the heavy JDS backers believe Dos Santos will win convincingly, and not due to the outcome of the first fight, but due to the stylistic matchup, which they believe to favour Dos Santos.

If this is true, the sharp money is, theory-wise, almost always on Cain Velasquez.

If we assume that these things are true, that the first fight is irrelevant due to the multiple injuries (Cain was coming off of a 90% rotator cuff tear, and a video recently surfaced of him supposedly blowing out his ACL shortly before the fight; there were also rumours that Cain attempted to pull out of the fight, but was told he could not), and if it is true that Junior Dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez, then the only possible reason for the shift in odds is that the betting public is driving the money in the wrong direction due to misinterpretation of the available information. I'll simplify this last part as best I can, as otherwise I'll just go on a math-based ramble, but consider this: if we assume that Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos is almost exactly the same as it was the first time, as if the first fight had never happened and the results of it have no impact on this fight, then you are receiving a fighter who, in the first fight, was at very best -120, for odds upwards of +160, and a fighter who was available at +135 in the first fight at odds of -180. Consider if the lines for St-Pierre vs Matt Sera were opened immediately after the first fight, with Serra close to even money, or a favourite. If the results of the first fight truly do not matter, how can you pass on getting a line at +164, on which the true market value, when we remove these variables which we consider to be irrelevant, is -120? Conversely, how can we wager on a fighter whose true market value was considered to be +135 at -180?

I'm not making a statement as to who I think will win (it's Cain, solidly), but the point is not about who I think will win, it's about the fact that if we exclude these variables as irrelevant (which many of you will), you're getting Junior dos Santos, a fighter whose market value is +135, at -180, and you're getting Cain Velasquez, a fighter whose market value is -120, at +164, and likely better closer to fight night. Make of that what you will.

A lot of what you said I agree with. I think at the current odds it's really hard to justify playing JDS @ -185. This title fight is as much of a toss up as you've seen in recent memory and will likely see for awhile. Now as far as the argument that Cain has made more improvements as a fighter since November 2011 when compared to JDS, that is questionable. Health wise, I think both are in better spots. As far as in the ring. Both only have one fight you can refer to. Now JDS literally toyed with Mir. You also have Cain who dismantled Big Foot. I personally would have to side with JDS being the more impressive win between the two. I feel Big Foot is vastly overrated as a fighter. Lines opened on this fight JDS -135/Cain +105. I personally don't think you've seen the line top out for Cain where it sits right now @ +160. Current price its hard to say Cain isn't the side to bet.

[MD]

A lot of what you said I agree with. I think at the current odds it's really hard to justify playing JDS @ -185. This title fight is as much of a toss up as you've seen in recent memory and will likely see for awhile. Now as far as the argument that Cain has made more improvements as a fighter since November 2011 when compared to JDS, that is questionable. Health wise, I think both are in better spots. As far as in the ring. Both only have one fight you can refer to. Now JDS literally toyed with Mir. You also have Cain who dismantled Big Foot. I personally would have to side with JDS being the more impressive win between the two. I feel Big Foot is vastly overrated as a fighter. Lines opened on this fight JDS -135/Cain +105. I personally don't think you've seen the line top out for Cain where it sits right now @ +160. Current price its hard to say Cain isn't the side to bet.

My assumption wasn't that Cain has improved more than JDS has since their fight, just that JDS hasn't improved considerably more than Cain. Whether or not Cain has improved more isn't relevant as to the topic of this thread, although it would make the case for betting on Cain stronger.

As for their most recent fights, my opinion is that Mir was a fantastic submission artist with a glass chin and very little wrestling, fighting the most feared knockout artist in UFC heavyweight history, with stunningly consistent takedown defence, and Bigfoot was a very legitimate submission artist with some of the best jiu jitsu in the division, vicious knockout power, a three-inch height and five-inch reach edge, and at least a forty pound weight edge, likely closer to 50+. JDS was expected to viciously KO Mir in the first round, and I think his finish was quite hesitant and somewhat lackluster, whilst Cain destroyed Bigfoot in a manor that few expected. I think Cain's win was much more impressive, against the more impressive opponent. Purely my opinion, but I hope you'll see where I'm coming from with that thought.

[Mercersux]

My assumption wasn't that Cain has improved more than JDS has since their fight, just that JDS hasn't improved considerably more than Cain. Whether or not Cain has improved more isn't relevant as to the topic of this thread, although it would make the case for betting on Cain stronger.

As for their most recent fights, my opinion is that Mir was a fantastic submission artist with a glass chin and very little wrestling, fighting the most feared knockout artist in UFC heavyweight history, with stunningly consistent takedown defence, and Bigfoot was a very legitimate submission artist with some of the best jiu jitsu in the division, vicious knockout power, a three-inch height and five-inch reach edge, and at least a forty pound weight edge, likely closer to 50+. JDS was expected to viciously KO Mir in the first round, and I think his finish was quite hesitant and somewhat lackluster, whilst Cain destroyed Bigfoot in a manor that few expected. I think Cain's win was much more impressive, against the more impressive opponent. Purely my opinion, but I hope you'll see where I'm coming from with that thought.

I'd like to think Big Foot has as much of a suspect chin as Mir has. I mean I don't think it's a knock on someone to get knocked out by Carwin who imo had the hardest punch in the heavyweight division at the time. I also think you can throw out the knockouts Mir suffered in his return from his motorcycle accident because anyone could see he was a shell of himself. It took him a few fights to get himself back. I actually think in the JDS fight it proves that Mir has a chin more than he doesn't. I believe JDS has power but Mir's chin was able to hold out a bit longer than people were expecting. Now Big Foot has imo proven he has a very suspect chin. Getting knocked out by Cormier who has top notch technique in his striking but I still have questions about the type of power he's putting out. I personally think Cain has shown more pop in his punches than Cormier to this point. The one match that really sticks out to me when comparing chins is the Kyle fight. A light heavyweight floored Big Foot and he's very fortunate that Mike couldn't finish him off. That was one of those fights where Silva's size just proved too much as it should have.

[MD]

I'd like to think Big Foot has as much of a suspect chin as Mir has. I mean I don't think it's a knock on someone to get knocked out by Carwin who imo had the hardest punch in the heavyweight division at the time. I also think you can throw out the knockouts Mir suffered in his return from his motorcycle accident because anyone could see he was a shell of himself. It took him a few fights to get himself back. I actually think in the JDS fight it proves that Mir has a chin more than he doesn't. I believe JDS has power but Mir's chin was able to hold out a bit longer than people were expecting. Now Big Foot has imo proven he has a very suspect chin. Getting knocked out by Cormier who has top notch technique in his striking but I still have questions about the type of power he's putting out. I personally think Cain has shown more pop in his punches than Cormier to this point. The one match that really sticks out to me when comparing chins is the Kyle fight. A light heavyweight floored Big Foot and he's very fortunate that Mike couldn't finish him off. That was one of those fights where Silva's size just proved too much as it should have.

Cormier's technique doesn't particularly impress me; I feel the opposite, and believe that his power is his biggest asset, but he does have quite good hands; he certainly has more power than Cain, I think, although Cain has very underrated finishing ability. People somehow believe that because he doesn't throw with his full weight and lacks natural stopping power that his opponents will be able to simply walk through his punches, at heavyweight no less. Carwin vs Lesnar in comparison to Velasquez vs Lesnar is a good example of the difference between knockout power and finishing ability. Yeah, I agree about the Kyle fight, although I think that with a shot that connects that well, it's easy to drop someone, especially at that weight. I've long since lost all faith in Mir's chin.

[Mercersux]

Cormier's technique doesn't particularly impress me; I feel the opposite, and believe that his power is his biggest asset, but he does have quite good hands; he certainly has more power than Cain, I think, although Cain has very underrated finishing ability. People somehow believe that because he doesn't throw with his full weight and lacks natural stopping power that his opponents will be able to simply walk through his punches, at heavyweight no less. Carwin vs Lesnar in comparison to Velasquez vs Lesnar is a good example of the difference between knockout power and finishing ability. Yeah, I agree about the Kyle fight, although I think that with a shot that connects that well, it's easy to drop someone, especially at that weight. I've long since lost all faith in Mir's chin.

So what in Mir's record leads you to believe he's so chinny?

[JamesKim]

I see what you're saying, but doesn't this thread imply that the market value for the 1st fight were correct? If the odds for the 1st fight was incorrectly valued, it kinda destroys this whole thing. Either way, I can't see myself betting on this fight, I don't think I can confidently cap this properly.

edit: I'll hit Cain if the odds hit above +200

[Vaughany]

Recently I've been reading a lot as to why JDS is such a favourite over Velasquez; in truth, it's an ultra-competitive fight that will leave the winner with almost no remaining viable challengers. Overeem is the only immediate threat, with Cormier being widely considered a darkhorse. Let's make two propositions, first, before we begin, which we will assume to be true: 1) Junior dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez has improved in the time since their first fight, and 2) the results of the first fight do not have much, if any, influence on the likelihood of either fighter winning this fight. For the purpose of this thread, we have to assume that both of these are true. If you think that one of these two isn't true (or, most importantly, that you believe that the second is not true), then this thread probably won't interest you very much. This thread specifically addresses those who are betting on Dos Santos, with the belief that the first fight did not influence their handicapping of the fight.

We'll assume that, given the betting lines, the betting public believes that Dos Santos' win over Cain in the first fight was no fluke and is likely to be repeated in their rematch. Most sharps don't believe this, presumably, and neither do most of the posters on this forum, from what I've seen. From those I've spoken to on the boards and through PM, most seem to agree that the results of the first fight won't be a factor in handicapping this fight. There are psychological aspects to consider, but who they favour is a matter of opinion. Regardless, most of the heavy JDS backers believe Dos Santos will win convincingly, and not due to the outcome of the first fight, but due to the stylistic matchup, which they believe to favour Dos Santos.

If this is true, the sharp money is, theory-wise, almost always on Cain Velasquez.

If we assume that these things are true, that the first fight is irrelevant due to the multiple injuries (Cain was coming off of a 90% rotator cuff tear, and a video recently surfaced of him supposedly blowing out his ACL shortly before the fight; there were also rumours that Cain attempted to pull out of the fight, but was told he could not), and if it is true that Junior Dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez, then the only possible reason for the shift in odds is that the betting public is driving the money in the wrong direction due to misinterpretation of the available information. I'll simplify this last part as best I can, as otherwise I'll just go on a math-based ramble, but consider this: if we assume that Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos is almost exactly the same as it was the first time, as if the first fight had never happened and the results of it have no impact on this fight, then you are receiving a fighter who, in the first fight, was at very best -120, for odds upwards of +160, and a fighter who was available at +135 in the first fight at odds of -180. Consider if the lines for St-Pierre vs Matt Sera were opened immediately after the first fight, with Serra close to even money, or a favourite. If the results of the first fight truly do not matter, how can you pass on getting a line at +164, on which the true market value, when we remove these variables which we consider to be irrelevant, is -120? Conversely, how can we wager on a fighter whose true market value was considered to be +135 at -180?

I'm not making a statement as to who I think will win (it's Cain, solidly), but the point is not about who I think will win, it's about the fact that if we exclude these variables as irrelevant (which many of you will), you're getting Junior dos Santos, a fighter whose market value is +135, at -180, and you're getting Cain Velasquez, a fighter whose market value is -120, at +164, and likely better closer to fight night. Make of that what you will.

I think when talking about Cain's injury we should consider that JDS had also torn his meniscus a week or 2 before the fight

[ShotgunRua]

I've never understood why Cain is considered such an elite level heavyweight, someone feel free to enlighten me (yes yes I know he was the UFC champ fair enough). Don't get me wrong he's very good, and he's certainly top 5-10 given the lack of heavyweight talent relative to other divisions. I just don't see why anyone would fancy his chances against the likes of JDS and Overeem, when he's been tagged and rocked by Cheick Kongo. I understand he is relatively new and inexperienced and is improving, and if he continues to improve then his potential is massive, I just don't think he'll be much trouble for Cigano.

I know records never tell the whole story but look at his accomplishments, who is his best win? Big Nog? Brock Lesnar? To be fair given the state of Nog nowadays it's probably Bigfoot- and yeah he looked like a beast in doing so, but styles make fights and Bigfoot was never going to get top control on Cain, which is where he really shines.

I see him as a very good fighter who has been in the right place at the right time on more than one occasion. Destroyed some lower tier fighters, beat a washed up and apparently injured Big Nog, took the belt from a joke of a champion, went up against an elite striker and got knocked into the following week, then won a perfect style match up for him in dominating fashion, and now he has another title shot.

If heavyweight had the talent pool of lightweight Cain would have several more fights to win before getting back in this position, smart money is on JDS by KO.

[GunShard]

There's a terrible fight predictor on Youtube named New York Rick, he's on Cain.
Makes me confident on my Dos Santos bet.
Fading bad gamblers has been effective for me, my way of fading the public.

We can only assume Cain will attempt takedown attempts this time around.
If he keeps this fight standing again, he's going to get KO'ed again.
There's a lot of questions on Dos Santos takedown defense and grapling against Cain, Dos Santos cardio in the later rounds and if Cain will avoid keeping this fight standing.

If you look at past UFC championship fights. Mostly favorites win those fights.
BestFightOdds.com is a good site to see past fight line history.

What happens in the Octagon > Vegas Odds

[Sacrelicious]

New York Rick penetrating sucks, fade the hell out of that guy.

[Sacrelicious]

For the record, I'm on JDS quite hard, him and Jim Miller also are the first 2 picks in a side parlay I have going on.

Cain will be knocked out before the second round is complete.

[ShotgunRua]

Cain will be knocked out before the second round is complete.

If this doesn't happen it will be the most shocked I've been all year. Hopefully it does take more than one punch and Cain does go for some more takedowns just so that it becomes clear how much better JDS is.

[MD]

So what in Mir's record leads you to believe he's so chinny?

A general feeling based on his career as a whole, really. I think he gets rocked very easily, and has poor recovery.

I see what you're saying, but doesn't this thread imply that the market value for the 1st fight were correct? If the odds for the 1st fight was incorrectly valued, it kinda destroys this whole thing. Either way, I can't see myself betting on this fight, I don't think I can confidently cap this properly.

edit: I'll hit Cain if the odds hit above +200

Betting off-market lines is a fundamental idea in gambling theory, as is beating the closing line. In this case, we're getting a -120 closing line at +164 (+171 now). Crushing the closing line. Hitting lines above market value consistently is very profitable.

If you look at past UFC championship fights. Mostly favorites win those fights.
BestFightOdds.com is a good site to see past fight line history.

What happens in the Octagon > Vegas Odds

Based on what? A sample of less than 20 fights? Regardless, I'll humour you.

Dos Santos, Velasquez, Couture, Mir, and Carwin all won the belt as underdogs, and Couture defended the belt as an underdog against Gonzaga. Take a look at the list of heavyweight titles fights and see how many fights that leaves in the last few years. There definitely isn't an overly strong lean towards favourites.

[Sacrelicious]

If this doesn't happen it will be the most shocked I've been all year. Hopefully it does take more than one punch and Cain does go for some more takedowns just so that it becomes clear how much better JDS is.

Yup. 2013 will be the year that most likely JDS clears out the very few competitors in what is a very weak division. I fully see him rolling over Overeem and DC as well.

[MD]

I think when talking about Cain's injury we should consider that JDS had also torn his meniscus a week or 2 before the fight

Yeah, I'm aware. Another reason the fight isn't representative of how a rematch will go, I think.

Yup. 2013 will be the year that most likely JDS clears out the very few competitors in what is a very weak division. I fully see him rolling over Overeem and DC as well.

I don't know if I'd consider heavyweight so weak anymore. There are at least three or four big fights for JDS remaining.

I love JDS, and I hope that he beats Cain for fanboy reasons (I never really root for the guy I've bet on if I like the other guy more). I used to believe he'd KO Overeem due to Overeem's weak chin, but I'm not sure how much I believe that anymore. There's a big size and reach edge in favour of Overeem, and he's a very bad stylistic matchup for Junior. He has 4.5 inches of reach on Junior, which is very important, as Junior likes to fight primarily on the outside. In addition to this, he has leg and body kicks on the outside, which he'll mercilessly batter Junior with, and perhaps just as important is his ridiculous power in the clinch. If he ties up with Junior, he'll do serious damage. He simply has more weapons, and more experience. You should watch Overeem vs Badr Hari and Dos Santos vs Cro Cop; may give you the same fear that I have. According to MMA Mania, Dos Santos opened at -240 against Overeem; at those odds, Overeem is a steal.

[Sacrelicious]

Out of curiosity what are the 3 or 4 big matchups you have mentioned? Overeem is the only one I can really think of, and although I favor JDS in that fight I likely will not be betting on it.

[Mercersux]

Out of curiosity what are the 3 or 4 big matchups you have mentioned? Overeem is the only one I can really think of, and although I favor JDS in that fight I likely will not be betting on it.

Overeem, Cormier, Werdum, Jon Bones. I think in a years time its very plausible that you could see Bones move up. Those are the 4 that i can think of off the top of my head at least.

[Sacrelicious]

Of course Bones is a valid one. I dont think he will move up for at least another year though. Sonnen fight, and then either Gus/Hendo/Machida, he wont be moving up till 2014.

Only major title "upset" I suspect will happen this year is Edgar over Aldo.

[PunisherIND]

Recently I've been reading a lot as to why JDS is such a favourite over Velasquez; in truth, it's an ultra-competitive fight that will leave the winner with almost no remaining viable challengers. Overeem is the only immediate threat, with Cormier being widely considered a darkhorse. Let's make two propositions, first, before we begin, which we will assume to be true: 1) Junior dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez has improved in the time since their first fight, and 2) the results of the first fight do not have much, if any, influence on the likelihood of either fighter winning this fight. For the purpose of this thread, we have to assume that both of these are true. If you think that one of these two isn't true (or, most importantly, that you believe that the second is not true), then this thread probably won't interest you very much. This thread specifically addresses those who are betting on Dos Santos, with the belief that the first fight did not influence their handicapping of the fight.

We'll assume that, given the betting lines, the betting public believes that Dos Santos' win over Cain in the first fight was no fluke and is likely to be repeated in their rematch. Most sharps don't believe this, presumably, and neither do most of the posters on this forum, from what I've seen. From those I've spoken to on the boards and through PM, most seem to agree that the results of the first fight won't be a factor in handicapping this fight. There are psychological aspects to consider, but who they favour is a matter of opinion. Regardless, most of the heavy JDS backers believe Dos Santos will win convincingly, and not due to the outcome of the first fight, but due to the stylistic matchup, which they believe to favour Dos Santos.

If this is true, the sharp money is, theory-wise, almost always on Cain Velasquez.

If we assume that these things are true, that the first fight is irrelevant due to the multiple injuries (Cain was coming off of a 90% rotator cuff tear, and a video recently surfaced of him supposedly blowing out his ACL shortly before the fight; there were also rumours that Cain attempted to pull out of the fight, but was told he could not), and if it is true that Junior Dos Santos has not improved significantly more than Cain Velasquez, then the only possible reason for the shift in odds is that the betting public is driving the money in the wrong direction due to misinterpretation of the available information. I'll simplify this last part as best I can, as otherwise I'll just go on a math-based ramble, but consider this: if we assume that Cain Velasquez vs Junior dos Santos is almost exactly the same as it was the first time, as if the first fight had never happened and the results of it have no impact on this fight, then you are receiving a fighter who, in the first fight, was at very best -120, for odds upwards of +160, and a fighter who was available at +135 in the first fight at odds of -180. Consider if the lines for St-Pierre vs Matt Sera were opened immediately after the first fight, with Serra close to even money, or a favourite. If the results of the first fight truly do not matter, how can you pass on getting a line at +164, on which the true market value, when we remove these variables which we consider to be irrelevant, is -120? Conversely, how can we wager on a fighter whose true market value was considered to be +135 at -180?

I'm not making a statement as to who I think will win (it's Cain, solidly), but the point is not about who I think will win, it's about the fact that if we exclude these variables as irrelevant (which many of you will), you're getting Junior dos Santos, a fighter whose market value is +135, at -180, and you're getting Cain Velasquez, a fighter whose market value is -120, at +164, and likely better closer to fight night. Make of that what you will.

compelling argument. reminds of the phil davis vs. wagner prado situation. first fight davis closed around -700. couldnt really take much from the fight, but imo people overreacted to the fact that davis didnt get a takedown in the 90 second fight. second fight davis closed around -350 even though not much had changed from the first match.

[ShotgunRua]

I once had a fight with another kid when I was 12, we squared up, he punched me square in the face and walked away as I lay on the ground bleeding.

I've always thought he was better at fighting than me, tougher..... This thread has taught me that the fight was inconclusive, I feel better now.

[getlucky2win]

cain is ez 2 hit!!!
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/12/2...lack-judo-chop

[PunisherIND]

I've never understood why Cain is considered such an elite level heavyweight, someone feel free to enlighten me (yes yes I know he was the UFC champ fair enough). Don't get me wrong he's very good, and he's certainly top 5-10 given the lack of heavyweight talent relative to other divisions. I just don't see why anyone would fancy his chances against the likes of JDS and Overeem, when he's been tagged and rocked by Cheick Kongo. I understand he is relatively new and inexperienced and is improving, and if he continues to improve then his potential is massive, I just don't think he'll be much trouble for Cigano.

I know records never tell the whole story but look at his accomplishments, who is his best win? Big Nog? Brock Lesnar? To be fair given the state of Nog nowadays it's probably Bigfoot- and yeah he looked like a beast in doing so, but styles make fights and Bigfoot was never going to get top control on Cain, which is where he really shines.

I see him as a very good fighter who has been in the right place at the right time on more than one occasion. Destroyed some lower tier fighters, beat a washed up and apparently injured Big Nog, took the belt from a joke of a champion, went up against an elite striker and got knocked into the following week, then won a perfect style match up for him in dominating fashion, and now he has another title shot.

If heavyweight had the talent pool of lightweight Cain would have several more fights to win before getting back in this position, smart money is on JDS by KO.

rogan always says "cain has cardio for days". for days. what other hw has rogan said that about?

[ShotgunRua]

rogan always says "cain has cardio for days". for days. what other hw has rogan said that about?

Good old Rogan...... "Wow.... I mean wowww.... Did Shogun just shoot for a takedown???!! My god what the hell are we watching I've never seen anything like it my life!!!!"

[ShotgunRua]

cain is ez 2 hit!!!
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/12/2...lack-judo-chop

Another really informed article from Jack Slack. Man knows his striking.

[PunisherIND]

Good old Rogan...... "Wow.... I mean wowww.... Did Shogun just shoot for a takedown???!! My god what the hell are we watching I've never seen anything like it my life!!!!"

lol

[Sacrelicious]

I once had a fight with another kid when I was 12, we squared up, he punched me square in the face and walked away as I lay on the ground bleeding.

I've always thought he was better at fighting than me, tougher..... This thread has taught me that the fight was inconclusive, I feel better now.

Shotgun, you are the only person on this forum whos opinion is valid, RESPEK.

[NunyaBidness]

We'll assume that, given the betting lines, the betting public believes that Dos Santos' win over Cain in the first fight was no fluke and is likely to be repeated in their rematch. Most sharps don't believe this, presumably, and neither do most of the posters on this forum, from what I've seen. From those I've spoken to on the boards and through PM, most seem to agree that the results of the first fight won't be a factor in handicapping this fight. There are psychological aspects to consider, but who they favour is a matter of opinion. Regardless, most of the heavy JDS backers believe Dos Santos will win convincingly, and not due to the outcome of the first fight, but due to the stylistic matchup, which they believe to favour Dos Santos.

If this is true, the sharp money is, theory-wise, almost always on Cain Velasquez.

Your initial assumption is not safe to make.

For it to be true, you have to assume that either square money comes in prior to sharp money, or they are evenly distributed over time. This is very likely not the case. I'm sure Kalikas could tell us the truth, but in general, early line movement is caused mostly from SHARP action, not squares. Sharps are the ones waiting to pounce on openers.

The squarest money comes in right before the event, as well as the largest amount of sharp money as limits increase. This is true in every sport and should hold true for MMA as well.

[MD]

Great article by Slack as always.

Your initial assumption is not safe to make.

For it to be true, you have to assume that either square money comes in prior to sharp money, or they are evenly distributed over time. This is very likely not the case. I'm sure Kalikas could tell us the truth, but in general, early line movement is caused mostly from SHARP action, not squares. Sharps are the ones waiting to pounce on openers.

The squarest money comes in right before the event, as well as the largest amount of sharp money as limits increase. This is true in every sport and should hold true for MMA as well.

You're quite correct about that assertion. However, it doesn't change the overall validity of my proposition, as if we consider the original fight to be irrelevant currently, then all money on JDS at these odds would be, theoretically, square (obviously there are exceptions; some may very well simply handicap JDS as a large favourite regardless of the market value, and see value in the -180 lines, although that doesn't have much to do with the theory side of what we're discussing). Sharps betting on a square line is far from uncommon. I think you may be misinterpreting me just a little bit; by "sharp money", I mean something analogous to making a "sharp bet", not "the money of the sharps". I mean that the bet itself is sharp, not that the sharp public will be on the line. Hope that clarified a bit.

[GigaOuts]

cain is ez 2 hit!!!
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/12/2...lack-judo-chop

My thought is exactly, this article is confident builder for JDS backer. I have 4.6g+ on JDS @+140, was going to hedge back 3.6g+ @+180, now I don't know what to do. If I don't hedge and win, I am very close of being even from my 6g downswing, but if I lose (anything can happen in mma)I am looking at 8.5g+ in the hole.

I have 20%+ of my bankroll on JDS, I think I am going to take the easy way out and hedge. There is always more cards to come next year, no need to rush my goal to build a 50g+ bankroll.

[Rubber Guard]

I think Corimer may be the best HW in the world. I think he would beat Cain.

That said I think this is a tough fight to call, just because the first fight taught us little.

[KushMoney]

Dos Santos wins by KO/TKO -135
Cain Velasquez +160


I like both sides, just not sure which I like better.

[GigaOuts]

The match between Jon Fitch vs Eric Silva, I have 2.8g on Silva @-110 and I predict Fitch line will close at +135 - +140, it end up somewhere +175. This time I predict Cain line will close around +220, so I would wait if you want to bet on Cain.

[Grabaka]

Im on Cain too as i see a good chunk of value there. Maybe it can be a bad bet but i feel a dumber dumber bet is to go big on JDS. People that are on JDS are not making a small bet. They are going BIG like if he was fighting Pewee Herman. There's plenty more fights to go big with but against Cain? To call it a lock or somewhat close? Jezzz Talk about blinded by the hype...

200 on Cain Velasquez @ +160 (Watching odds carefully)
100 on Velasquez wins by 5 round decision +960