[ShotgunRua]

I've been betting on MMA for around a year, but with very little structure or discipline and with varying degrees of success. I'm looking to keep a log of all bets I place on MMA events for at least the next year and see if I can hopefully make a profit.

I have decided on a fairly limited bankroll for this next few months as I don't want my betting to have any bearing on my financial security etc. I will be diving my overall bankroll into units which amount to 1% of my starting balance, I will be betting between 1 and 5 units per bet depending on my level of confidence. Given the infrequency of MMA events this does not sound like a lot, however I will be betting on other sports as well.

I am relatively clueless about Bellator however I am discovering it slowly, I'll probably be picking UFC events for the near future. I'm completely open to suggestions and discussion, if you think I'm potentially missing out on a great bet please let me know. I will track units gained/lost and will never post or even hint at any bets placed which do not appear in this thread first. Some of you will no doubt notice I don't always have the best lines, I'm just using 1 book, (Paddy Power), I like the layout and ease of use. If I started increasing the size of the units later I'd probably also start shopping around for each bet.

Wish me luck!!


First 2 bets placed;

Benson Henderson by decision- 1.5 to win 1.2

This is probably an unpopular opinion but I don't honestly think this will be that competitive. I foresee Bendo basically beating Diaz up for 5 rounds and taking the decision. If Benson is fighting smart I expect something of a Condit/Diaz strategy but with harder more damaging leg kicks, I also expect to see Diaz outwrestled and controlled for much of the fight. Don't get me wrong I'm sure he'll have his moments, perhaps a good sub attempt or a nice combo of punches, but by the time the fight ends there will be no question who won. At the same time I really do not envision Henderson finishing Diaz, I expect him to be disciplined and cautious to avoid the subs. I tend to avoid props but I feel really confident about this one.

Shogun Rua- 1 to win 1.75

Despite my username I'm not a blind Shogun fan, if he were fighting Jones again I'd bet on Jones. But he's not fighting Jones, not at all. Gustafsson has a lot of hype, and a lot of finishes against very average guys. This is a massive step up in competition for him. People talk about Shogun in the Vera fight, but honestly... I think Vera would give Gustafsson some problems, not saying he'd win but I think he's criminally underrated.
As for Shogun, it's a little bit cliche to say it depends on which Shogun shows up, but it is true he's turned into an incredibly inconsistent fighter. If he turns up in good shape and has worked on his cardio as he said he would, this is a tough fight for the Mauler. If he turns up in the exact same shape he was in for Vera then I think think this is a pick em. I honestly don't see Gustafsson finishing Shogun, look at the punishment he's taken, and compare that with Gustafsson's last fight. My money would be on Gus in a boxing match, but Shogun shoots for takedowns in round 1 of every single fight he has, and he generally secures them against guys with good TDD. This combined with Shogun's KO power has to impact the Mauler's ability to establish himself in this fight. My guess is badly gassed Shogun by TKO, but I'll play him straight as I think a sub and even a decision, (via grappling control), is possible.


I'll update with more plays. How does everyone feel about BJ as a dog? Considering a tiny 0.5 unit play.

[Jesus Christ]

Good Luck

[ShotgunRua]

Good Luck

Wow first reply from the man himself. Thanks JC.

[Beelzebubzy]

Best of luck dude. I am with you on Bendo, him continually saying that "there is a blue print to beat Diaz" has me confident that he is going to wrestle him. Bendo does give up his back too often for my liking but I think he will have a huge size advantage and his top control will be a factor. I might sprinkle some on Bendo by Decision as Diaz is uber tough, but would not be surprised if Diaz gets stopped by cuts

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks man.

[Sacrelicious]

Good luck man. I have plays on both Bendo and Shogun as well, significantly hevier on Bendo though. I got my initial money on shogun at +165, but now that the line is moving even higher on him I may throw down one more unit as fight night nears.

I also stated in another thread, I believe Bendo should be around the -250 range. At the current lines, theres serious value there, I dont see Nate offering him much except for a freak submission, and the bet can be hedged with a sub prop.

[MD]

I used Paddy Power exclusively for quite some time, also, so here's some advice: get a new book. Paddy Power are terrible; if you want to use one site exclusively, use 5Dimes. If you're not shopping for lines, you're wasting your time, and your money.

[Jesus Christ]

Yea I agree with MD...Dimes is as good as gets for combat sports.

[Mercersux]

Yea I agree with MD...Dimes is as good as gets for combat sports.

Only gripe i have with 5D is that they tend to put out lines on their site a tad bit after the line comes out to the public so what you tend to see is a lot of value is taken out of lines before you can make plays on them when they finally drop on 5D. Other than that though great site. Best I've experienced online and I've gambled at 3-4 different sites before.

[Vaughany]

Also you should be taking full advantage of being able to have a Pinnacle account. A) Paddy will limit you as soon as you win a few hundred or you catch a few off lines, and B) The odds are shiit on paddy except when they release the odds first - like you can get Swick at +120 and Siver at -250 now...but again issue with limits. For the most part tho you are getting weaker odds...for instance if you wanted to play BJ Penn you are getting +200 on paddy when you could get +236 on Pinnacle right now.

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks for the heads up guys, may consider switching to Pinnacle. I've used 5dimes in the past, I think I was put off by fees for depositing/withdrawing, conversion to dollars etc etc. I guess back then I was depositing, placing a few bets then withdrawing the winnings so it seemed like more of a chore.

[caveira]

You should bet shogun by tko/ko or, at least, Shogun ITD. Gustafsson will fight exactly the way he fights Thiago Silva. Gustafsson by decision or Shogun by TKO are my picks.

[ShotgunRua]

You should bet shogun by tko/ko or, at least, Shogun ITD. Gustafsson will fight exactly the way he fights Thiago Silva. Gustafsson by decision or Shogun by TKO are my picks.

Yeah that was my initial thought, but I try to stay away from props as much as possible. I also don't think it's that unlikely Shogun wins a decision here, if the striking exchanges are relatively even but Shogun scores a few takedowns he could certainly edge Gustafsson out on the scorecards. I'd hate to have money on a dog only to lose due to method of victory, however I may add 0.5 unit on ITD.

I completely agree that if you're playing Gustafsson you might as well look at the decision prop. I don't see him finishing Shogun within 3 rounds, he could certainly hurt him and win the decision but Gus ITD is the least likely scenario here in my opinion.

[MD]

Shogun unlikely to win the decision? Ever seen a Shogun fight? The guy is a wrestler, not a striker, and if you don't believe that, you haven't been paying enough attention. He'll throw caution to the wind and try to take down Gus from the opening bell. Unless this fight looks like GSP vs Koscheck, then Shogun has a very decent chance of winning a decision.

[ShotgunRua]

Shogun unlikely to win the decision? Ever seen a Shogun fight? The guy is a wrestler, not a striker, and if you don't believe that, you haven't been paying enough attention. He'll throw caution to the wind and try to take down Gus from the opening bell. Unless this fight looks like GSP vs Koscheck, then Shogun has a very decent chance of winning a decision.

Ha ha yeah, there's this perception of him as this pure MT striker, Joe Rogan acts like it's the most bizarre thing he's ever seen when Shogun shoots in. This is despite the fact that it's consistently half of his offence.

[ShotgunRua]

Added 2 more plays;

Benson Henderson- 2.5 to win 1.63 (Pinnacle)

I couldn't not increase the amount I have on Bendo after Bigday's video!! I'm also starting to think there's more than a small chance Bendo get's the finish here so I'm covered. I now have 4 units on Benson.

(Double) Shogun/Gustafsson over 1.5 rounds + Dennis Siver- 2 to win 1.55 (Paddy Power)

I've been wanting to place a bet on Siver as as I think he will easily outmuscle Phan, who will not be able to prevent this from being a one sided stand up demolition- however the odds are pretty steep. Paddy had Shogun/Gus over 1.5 rounds (Pinnacle only has over 2.5), and I felt this was a pretty solid bet so doubled them up. I think Gustafsson's footwork will allow him to create some distance early on, and it may take Shogun some time to get him down and secure a dominant position. I don't see a first round finish from either guy here.

[ShotgunRua]

BJ Penn- 0.5 to win 1.23 (Pinnacle)

I've decided to throw this down just for some action on this fight and I used to love watching BJ fight. Rory is a beast, and will more than likely win this one, I'm writing this half unit off and I'm happy risking it to make the fight a little more exciting. BJ Penn seems fired up, and he also looks like he's in good shape, he's had a lot of time to prepare for this fight and I believe he's taking it very seriously. I'm of the opinion many of his recent losses have been partially due to a lack of motivation and conditioning and if he has addressed these issues this may be more competitive than people expect. I'll be rooting for BJ and the payout would be nice if he pulls it off.

[ShotgunRua]

Does anyone with experience have any opinion on where they think the line movement will be on JDS/Cain?

I am going to pound JDS like he's a heavy bag but not sure if the odds will get better or worse?

[Sacrelicious]

Mean line movement on JDS has been downward since opeing, seems to have plateaued slightly, I dont see it getting that much lower unless something changes shortly before fight time.

[MD]

Ha ha yeah, there's this perception of him as this pure MT striker, Joe Rogan acts like it's the most bizarre thing he's ever seen when Shogun shoots in. This is despite the fact that it's consistently half of his offence.

Yeah, it makes no sense to me. One of the fights he's best known for is his fight with Nogueira, and he lay all over Nogueira in that fight. Got out-struck and wrestlef-cked Diabate and Santos, too.

[ShotgunRua]

Mean line movement on JDS has been downward since opeing, seems to have plateaued slightly, I dont see it getting that much lower unless something changes shortly before fight time.

Thanks for that, not been watching it and I have nowhere near enough experience to predict these things. I'll probably watch it for a while since the fight is a way off, will be putting 3 down on JDS for sure.

[Sacrelicious]

I'll likely be putting down 2.5 or so, I cant justify spending too much on a HW bout because of the volitaile and unpredictable nature of HW knockouts, but I'm pretty high on JDS to take out Cain here.

[ShotgunRua]

I hear that, both Struve/Miocic and Bigfoot/Browne surprised me.

I do have a lot of confidence in JDS when matched up against Velasquez though.

[ShotgunRua]

Matt Brown- 1 to win 1.41 (+141 Pinnacle)

This fight is fairly even in my eyes, so the value is with Brown here. If the odds were equal I'd still lean towards Brown so this is a no brainer. Swick seemed rusty in his last fight against a guy who's just been cut for getting beaten consistently. I think one of the reasons the odds favour Swick is because he is a finisher, and Brown has been finished a staggering 9 times out of his 11 losses. However, all 9 of those finishes have come by way of submission, he has never suffered a KO/TKO. Also, most of those submission losses were earlier in his career. Swick has finished 3 of his last 6 victories, however they were all knockouts, he's not submitted anyone since 2006. I know Swick is motivated, but I think he'll notice the step up from Johnson here and will be unable to finish Brown. I envision either a late TKO from Brown, or a decision which will have everyone on the edge of their seat.

[Vaughany]

Accoding to Wiki Swick has already beaten Brown after 11 seconds!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Swick

[kripsak]

Accoding to Wiki Swick has already beaten Brown after 11 seconds!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Swick

LOL...some jokester always puts results out on wiki before the fight happends...I took a screenshot of one of them, gotta find it and see if he's good to tail.

[gabe]

Accoding to Wiki Swick has already beaten Brown after 11 seconds!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Swick

lmao

[ShotgunRua]

Accoding to Wiki Swick has already beaten Brown after 11 seconds!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Swick

Ha ha epic

[gabe]

Ha ha epic

No, not epic... funny, though.

[ShotgunRua]

This thread is getting a little bloated as I've been posting my picks as and when I've placed bets, going to consolidate them in this post;

Benson Henderson- 2.5 to win 1.63 (Pinnacle)

(Double) Shogun/Gustafsson over 1.5 rounds + Dennis Siver- 2 to win 1.55 (Paddy Power)

Benson Henderson by decision- 1.5 to win 1.2

Shogun Rua- 1 to win 1.75

Matt Brown- 1 to win 1.41 (+141 Pinnacle)

BJ Penn- 0.5 to win 1.23 (Pinnacle)

Also, just added 0.5 units on Trujilo considering he was expecting to fight tomorrow. Not taking a huge risk since I'd be favouring Levesseur under normal circumstances.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Hey broady, I can totally see that you are a cool guy and not at all some fockin phaget. That's why I'm going to give you a piece of advice.

I know you are probably just trying to be cute by posting a pic of your kid as your avi. But jiggy can and will take a piss on your kid like r kelley.

[ShotgunRua]

Maybe this is some kind of forum joke I don't get, if so please enlighten me. Otherwise can you post your troll stuff in a different thread.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Maybe this is some kind of forum joke I don't get, if so please enlighten me. Otherwise can you post your troll stuff in a different thread.

Pal I am trying to tell you that you are not at all a phaget and I totally respect you. Can you accept that?

[ShotgunRua]

Benson Henderson- 2.5 to win 1.63 (Pinnacle) WIN

(Double) Shogun/Gustafsson over 1.5 rounds + Dennis Siver- 2 to win 1.55 (Paddy Power) WIN

Benson Henderson by decision- 1.5 to win 1.2 WIN

Shogun Rua- 1 to win 1.75 LOST

Matt Brown- 1 to win 1.41 (+141 Pinnacle) WIN

BJ Penn- 0.5 to win 1.23 (Pinnacle) LOST

Trujilo- 0.5 units to win 0.64 (+128 Pinnacle) WIN


YTD- 5 - 2

+ 4.93 UNITS!!!


Excellent night overall. Bendo vs Diaz was a one sided beatdown exactly as I expected, as was Siver/Phan. My large bets hit which is the main thing. I was actually surprised by how dominant Matt Brown was against Swick, I picked him to win but thought it would be a tough fight, very impressed with Brown.

I overestimated BJ and underestimated Gustafsson. The BJ bet was only ever a fun half unit wager, partly placed just for action, partly because I'm constantly reminded about the money I lost on Erick Silva against Fitch and how you can never count the old legends out. Either was it was a waste of half a unit- Rory looked beastly. Shogun did what Shogun does, thew devastating punches, shot for takedowns and gassed badly- he looked better than he did in the Vera fight. As expected he caught Gus pretty clean, I was waiting for a big overhand/hook to connect and hurt Gustafsson, but rather than it happening once it seemed to happen every couple of minutes, but Gus walked through them. I completely underestimated his ability to take Shogun's power shots, he has the chin to backup his skill and his ability to take Shogun's punches took all the competitiveness out of the fight.

I guess the lesson here is to steer clear of these older legends as there are too many variables and the fights are too hard to predict. Also being a fan of the two guys made it tempting to throw some money on them, might as well have enjoyed the fights and stuck to my other bets which I felt more confident in.

[MD]

You should feel good knowing that Gustafsson has almost no chance whatsoever against Jones and the public may be square enough to give us >-400 on him.