[MFDoom013]

Anyone else listening to this conference call? I think MOTIVATED BJ is back lol

I'm going hard on all 3 dogs Dec. 8. Nate, Shogun & BJ all going hard

[gabe]

Very good chance you go 0-3.

[KushMoney]

Rory is very good, and at his best is better than BJ at his best.

BJ Penn lost to Frankie Edgar, an athlete like Rory Mac will make quick work of Motivated BJ.






He has 1 win since 2009. He's not winning this fight.



I want Shogun to win.

Nick Diaz IMO can only win this by Submission. Giving him (IMO) higher than +130 odds chance to win the fight. Also, Ben Henderson is trying to perform better than he did in his last fight vs. Frankie. He will be the more agile and technical fighter throughout 25 minutes.

[gabe]

Value is with Bendo at current odds... Bendo should be -210... I don't wanna go against Diaz, though, so I think I'm just gona be on fight going over 4.5 rds

[rocky16]

Anyone else listening to this conference call? I think MOTIVATED BJ is back lol

I'm going hard on all 3 dogs Dec. 8. Nate, Shogun & BJ all going hard

I'm on board with you. Playing all 3 dogs here. Good luck.

[bjpenn85]

I guarantee you that at least two of those plays are going straight to hell.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Shogun and Nate can win

BJ is going to get pummelled in the later rounds

[gabe]

Shogun and Nate can win

BJ is going to get pummelled in the later rounds

Out of all 3 fights, I have the easiest time visualizing Penn as the winner.

Which is weird, 'cos Nate has a good shot. I wish my gut would let me play him, I'm just not confident in him for this fight... I might play him if he reaches +150...

[sideloaded]

bj is dead money

[MFDoom013]

You guys are all right. no way BJ can win this fight. Not like he has superior stand up and ground game compared to Rory

oh wait.

Rory's one hope is to wrestlefuck his way to a decision. Ain't gonna happen

[KushMoney]

Value is with Bendo at current odds... Bendo should be -210... I don't wanna go against Diaz, though, so I think I'm just gona be on fight going over 4.5 rds

Exactly.. capped Bendo at around -225. Chances of Bendo by TKO, about 20%. Submission? 10% Neither are very likely at all. Rory Mac couldn't even finish Nate D. Chances of Nate by TKO, same about 20% Submission? 30% Bendo has been submitted before. Nate has the skill to stop him via sub. buuuuut I'd say about 9 outta 10 times this fight goes to Decision. About 8 of those Decisions, go to Bendo.

Imma go big on over 4.5 Rounds and medium on Bendo by decision.

[KushMoney]

You guys are all right. no way BJ can win this fight. Not like he has superior stand up and ground game compared to Rory

oh wait.

Rory's one hope is to wrestlefuck his way to a decision. Ain't gonna happen

See it this way, man... Who needs BJ anymore? Does anyone really want BJ to win? What does that do for the Fans or UFC?


The answer is No, it does nothing. BJ is old man. He wins this fight, and Rory can't move further into title contention.. Fuuuuck that. Stupid and pointless for the UFC. They don't need BJ anymore. He's just a fighter they can use as cannon fodder for real title contenders. (Nick Diaz, Fitch, and now Rory Mac) If BJ wins it's just a promotional setback for the UFC. Rory WILL fight for the title some day, but not if he loses to BJ at the end of 2012.. There for he won't lose. He will defeat BJ Penn.


Also, he trains with GSP. Someone who knows all about that.

[CDMKMP]

Don't rely on BJ Penn for anything. This is easily the 3rd time if not more that he's played the whole "no trust me, I'm really motivated THIS time" card.

Dude does not have heart and you don't need to look far to see that. All his career has ever been is coasting on incredible innate talent (hence 'the prodigy,' but the new breed has caught up and surpassed him standing still.

No way he wins this fight unless he gets real lucky.

[Vaughany]

See it this way, man... Who needs BJ anymore? Does anyone really want BJ to win? What does that do for the Fans or UFC?


The answer is No, it does nothing. BJ is old man. He wins this fight, and Rory can't move further into title contention.. Fuuuuck that. Stupid and pointless for the UFC. They don't need BJ anymore. He's just a fighter they can use as cannon fodder for real title contenders. (Nick Diaz, Fitch, and now Rory Mac) If BJ wins it's just a promotional setback for the UFC. Rory WILL fight for the title some day, but not if he loses to BJ at the end of 2012.. There for he won't lose. He will defeat BJ Penn.


Also, he trains with GSP. Someone who knows all about that.

Yeah but what difference does that make to who wins the fight? I'm sure UFC thought Tito was fodder for one of their favourite TUF winners in Ryan Bader as well

[Fragoel2]

I took Henderson, Penn and Shogun.

BJ is, in my opinion, a live dog. He has better standup and one of the best takedown defences in the ufc. Also, he is exactly that kind of proud dickhead that takes this kind challanges in a personal way, therefore I actually expect him to have trained really hard for this fight.

Is he favored? I dunno, but he should be lower than +230.

[MD]

If you're going to take BJ, you should be playing him ITD, I think. He's only won three decisions in his entire career, and has a history of losing very questionable decisions (Machida, Edgar, GSP 1, etc.). His last seven wins have all been finishes, and it's been seven and a half years since his last decision win. There's a possibility he takes the decision, but it's unlikely, especially considering Rory's size and overwhelming style. Chances of him winning the third round are low.

Shogun is a huge variable; anyone who thinks Gus manhandles him if he shows up with a manageable gameplan and a reasonable amount of hard work, shouldn't be handicapping MMA. When Shogun shows up at his best, he's an absolute monster; the Liddell and Machida fights, for example. The problem with this fight is that there's absolutely no way to tell whether or not he'll be in top form before the fight. If he shows up at his best, it's a pretty close fight with the edge going to Shogun. Anything less than that and Gus outpoints him to a comfortable decision.

[kripsak]

If you're going to take BJ, you should be playing him ITD, I think. He's only won three decisions in his entire career, and has a history of losing very questionable decisions (Machida, Edgar, GSP 1, etc.). His last seven wins have all been finishes, and it's been seven and a half years since his last decision win. There's a possibility he takes the decision, but it's unlikely, especially considering Rory's size and overwhelming style. Chances of him winning the third round are low.

Shogun is a huge variable; anyone who thinks Gus manhandles him if he shows up with a manageable gameplan and a reasonable amount of hard work, shouldn't be handicapping MMA. When Shogun shows up at his best, he's an absolute monster; the Liddell and Machida fights, for example. The problem with this fight is that there's absolutely no way to tell whether or not he'll be in top form before the fight. If he shows up at his best, it's a pretty close fight with the edge going to Shogun. Anything less than that and Gus outpoints him to a comfortable decision.

I really like the Gustaffson play, but I will definitely pay close attention on the weigh ins before turning my play in for that fight.

Also, Penn might be worth it to make a small play: (man, but the last time I placed a bet on Penn was Penn VS GSP I)
http://www.mmaweekly.com/bj-penn-ser...ining-partners

[dww123]

Lot of love for Rua i see. Shogun/Gusta fight will be a classic example on why most sports bettors fail. The more a fighter is liked the harder it is to come to terms with his highly diminished skill set. People think of shogun and they still imagine him flying through the air in a Pride ring. He is going to be embarrassingly outgunned and it will be sad to watch.

[Imsmarterthanu]

BJ is going to get squashed

Rory is too big too tough and too strong for BJ to dominate him with his talent alone

BJ will do what he does he'll come out strong in the first and try to dominate Rory with boxing combos they will clinch and exchange but somewhere along the line BJ is going to end up on his back getting fukn pummeled over and over again, he will crack under adversity. When BJ isn't dominating a fight he's losing it.

[Dwil125]

If your taking penn, take him ITD at nearly +600. Hes not winning a decision against rory.

[Degenregen]

I think people are underestimating BJs TDD a little bit, getting taken down by GSP, Edgar, and Fitch isn't exactly something to be ashamed of. If he can resist GSP for a round, he should be able to resist Rory for a round, maybe longer.

Rory's shown some great wrestling against Condit, Diaz, and Mills...

I'm not sure where BJ is right now after only having one win in his last five. I could see BJ getting the best of Rory standing, and Rory isn't exactly the kind to pressure you and gas you out with stand up like Diaz, so BJ shouldn't gas like he did in that fight.

No play or a small play on BJ for me. Probably will wait til the day of the fight, odds will probably go higher for BJ. If he looks like he's in shape, I'll definitely lay something on BJ if the odds get to +275.

[Vaughany]

I think people are underestimating BJs TDD a little bit, getting taken down by GSP, Edgar, and Fitch isn't exactly something to be ashamed of. If he can resist GSP for a round, he should be able to resist Rory for a round, maybe longer.

Rory's shown some great wrestling against Condit, Diaz, and Mills...

I'm not sure where BJ is right now after only having one win in his last five. I could see BJ getting the best of Rory standing, and Rory isn't exactly the kind to pressure you and gas you out with stand up like Diaz, so BJ shouldn't gas like he did in that fight.

No play or a small play on BJ for me. Probably will wait til the day of the fight, odds will probably go higher for BJ. If he looks like he's in shape, I'll definitely lay something on BJ if the odds get to +275.

Rory isnt as much of a threat with double-leg and single-leg takedowns as a GSP, he will probably look to do same as he did against Diaz and just body lock and throw/suplex BJ around! Probably for MacDonald is that these kind of takedowns make it easier for an opponent to bounce right back up or at least get to their knees like Diaz kept doing. It doesnt automatically lead to a top position in guard unlike a single leg or double so this could aid BJ in getting back to his feet who has amazing balance, although obviously Rory would still be showing "octagon control" and looking good in judges eyes.

[MFDoom013]

See it this way, man... Who needs BJ anymore? Does anyone really want BJ to win? What does that do for the Fans or UFC?


.

If this were professional wrestling you might be on to something son. But regardless of what UFC wants BJ wants to whoop Rory's ass. He came out and said had the fight happened when it was originally scheduled to he was basically just going to show up. Then Rory talked shit and BJ got into hellacious shape and is ready to do work.

Trust me, BJ is whooping this guys ass.

[PunisherIND]

If this were professional wrestling you might be on to something son. But regardless of what UFC wants BJ wants to whoop Rory's ass. He came out and said had the fight happened when it was originally scheduled to he was basically just going to show up. Then Rory talked shit and BJ got into hellacious shape and is ready to do work.

Trust me, BJ is whooping this guys ass.

i agree with everything you said, but as a fan, i didnt like to hear that from bj. EDIT: i agree with almost everything you said. dont agree that bj is going to whoop his ass.

doesnt it concern you that he admitted that he wasnt planning to come in shape? that he needed rory's smack talk to get him motivated? that he needed the extra time from the injury postponement to get in shape?

it basically tells me that he wasnt mentally or physically ready for the fight. that he was perfectly content eating spam+pineapple burgers were it not for some twitter remarks.

all that said, i wouldnt count him out and i will be hedging my rory plays with penn itd.

[rocky16]

I've been high on Rory since his first fight in the UFC but this is going to be a tough fight for him. Penn will have better standup, better wrestling, and better jitz of course. Rory will be much bigger and will have better cardio. Rory needs to get this past the 3 min mark of round 2 and take over from there. Tough fight to call, and Penn could win a decision if he takes the first 2 rounds. +240 is the play IMO.

[PaperTrail07]

mad respect for rory and BJ.....BJ is best chance for an upset....shogun has no chance...

[Vaughany]

I dont know how anybody can say Shogun has no chance when Gustaffsson keeps his hands by his waste 90% of the time. Thiago Silva caught him late in their fight and he is a slow plodder who'd just come back from injury. Shogun has caught guys like Chuck and Machida through uncoiling and exploding forward and catching them unaware as they move forward. If Shogun can catch an elusive fighter like Machida then I dont see why he can't catch Gustaffsson. It's nice to see guys using different styles and emulating their Alliance figurehead Cruz's style of constant movement/angles with hands low but it is easier for him to get away with it because he's fighting small guys who don't offer as much of a one-punch knockout threat. I can't help but think eventually somebody like Gustaf who is fighting big guys with legit power is gonna get caught out with that style. You could argue that we've already seen it happen to Travis Browne (although obviously the injury played a big part in him getting finished). I do believe the line is about right at this point just because of the whole "new breed" vs "old breed" aspect and the questions about Shogun's cardio and desire to keep fighting and trying to improve and desire/ability to keep taking punishment after the wars he's had. The Vera fight of course is very concerning as he just didnt look that good.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I think rory mac is arguably the best fav of the card..

People might be overlooking his natural wrasslin' and grappling ability.. He's very smooth and competent on the ground and if he gets bj down he will man handle him there. His stand up has looked solid as well, and while I give bj the stand up edge, I think rory is good enough to hang there and set up shots to close distance where he'll use his massive size to hopefully get bj down. Rory is huge and very athletic - his size, youth and athleticism is gonna overwhelm an aged and battle worn bj me thinks... BJ will look strong in the 1st as he always does, from there I think he's going to get smashed and smashed bad.

I'm not sold on the 'BJ is back' or "the new BJ" foo foo, I've heard that way too many times man...

Rory mac is the type of fighter that is clearly evolving, always improving through his youth and a clear threat to all contenders in the future.

I'm not counting BJ completely out, but I think there is value with rory at -300. It's hard to imagine him losing and while it'd be cool to see bj have a rally win, I don't thinmk its gonna happen.

[dww123]

I dont know how anybody can say Shogun has no chance when Gustaffsson keeps his hands by his waste 90% of the time. Thiago Silva caught him late in their fight and he is a slow plodder who'd just come back from injury. Shogun has caught guys like Chuck and Machida through uncoiling and exploding forward and catching them unaware as they move forward. If Shogun can catch an elusive fighter like Machida then I dont see why he can't catch Gustaffsson. It's nice to see guys using different styles and emulating their Alliance figurehead Cruz's style of constant movement/angles with hands low but it is easier for him to get away with it because he's fighting small guys who don't offer as much of a one-punch knockout threat. I can't help but think eventually somebody like Gustaf who is fighting big guys with legit power is gonna get caught out with that style. You could argue that we've already seen it happen to Travis Browne (although obviously the injury played a big part in him getting finished). I do believe the line is about right at this point just because of the whole "new breed" vs "old breed" aspect and the questions about Shogun's cardio and desire to keep fighting and trying to improve and desire/ability to keep taking punishment after the wars he's had. The Vera fight of course is very concerning as he just didnt look that good.

The Shogun who caught Machida and Chuck is not even remotely the same fighter who was in that awful brawl with Brandon Vera. I'm actually surprised you would even take those into concideration. You are more bet savvy than that!

[MD]

The Shogun who caught Machida and Chuck is not even remotely the same fighter who was in that awful brawl with Brandon Vera. I'm actually surprised you would even take those into concideration. You are more bet savvy than that!

It's been pretty obvious for a while now that Shogun is the most inconsistent fighter on the planet. Giving a bad performance doesn't increase his odds of having a bad performance in his next fight. Remember the second Coleman fight? People said he was past it after that fight, and that was basically a mirror of the Vera fight, in terms of context and ending. Same with the first Griffin fight. I assumed everyone knew this.

[Sacrelicious]

I'm not sold on Gus.

I fully expect him to try pick apart shogun from afar, I just don't see it happening. Shogun looked terrible against Vera but I'm more inclined to see that as an anomaly then anything else. There's no doubt his best days are behind him, but I believe Gus is overrated and as long as shogun shows up in shape he will be able to grind out a win. There is value on shogun above +160 IMO.

[Rubber Guard]

I think Shogun can win that fight. Either way I think if Gus wins it will be a decision. I've liked Gustaf for a while now and said he could hang with the best. But -220? vs. Shogun? Shogun only gets dominated by Jon Jones. At worst you should expect him to put up a fight.

I really think this is a great prop or distance card.

Bendo isn't finishing Nate.
They are heavy hitting LHWs but I don't see Gustaf stopping Shogun in 3 rounds.
Rory probably wins, but any decent Penn can last 3 rounds with this kid off pride alone.

[Rubber Guard]

Then again I am banking on a 1 foot into retirement Penn, and a deteriorating Shogun not hitting a wall that happens to most. At least not for 1 more fight.

Diaz on the other hand isn't getting finished by Bendo in a million years.

[Sacrelicious]

I think Shogun can win that fight. Either way I think if Gus wins it will be a decision. I've liked Gustaf for a while now and said he could hang with the best. But -220? vs. Shogun? Shogun only gets dominated by Jon Jones. At worst you should expect him to put up a fight.

Precisely my thought. The line is skewed, if it keeps moving higher on Shogun I will be putting down more money on fight night. -220 vs Shogun is a ridiculous bet.

[Vaughany]

The Shogun who caught Machida and Chuck is not even remotely the same fighter who was in that awful brawl with Brandon Vera. I'm actually surprised you would even take those into concideration. You are more bet savvy than that!

People were saying the same thing when he fought Machida though...."Oh didnt you see the Griffin and Coleman fights...this isnt the same guy that was tearing it up in Pride....Machida is going to pick him apart easily"