[JerseyRobby]

Eveverybody has an off night and Chad Dawson had one against Jean Pascal but if they ever had a rematch I'm confident Dawson would lay a thumping on Pascal and even more important Dawson might have won the first fight but it was in Pascal's hometown and the judges were obviously going to give him the edge. That being said before Dawson lost that fight he was thought of as a top P4P guy even Mayweather was praising the guy. There is a reason he has lightining fast hands and a great jab. He does lack 1 punch KO power but he has all the tools to give anybody trouble.

Andre Ward is a great boxer and more importanty one of the most intelligent guys in the ring. He beat some talented guys in the Super Six BUT none of them are like Dawson. Kessler, AA, and Froch are all very technical and have power but none have the hand speed to keep up with Ward's defense. Meanwhile Dawson is taller than all those guys and has a great jab and hand speed. This will give Andre a completely different look. I can see Ward having trouble figuring out Dawson early on and also this is a very hungry and focused Dawson. He came down in weight and is fighting in Ward's hometown just to get this fight.

Dawson might get screwed by the judges but I have no doubt he will put up a very close fight and is definitely worth the risk at +280. It woun't be the prettiest fight but I really like Bad Chad's chances.

[Vaughany]

SOG aint losing son! Might be controversial though!

[Imsmarterthanu]

no chance

Andre Ward will win

[JamesKim]

Wouldn't Dawson by decision be the better bet? There's no way he's knocking out Ward.

[Vaughany]

Wouldn't Dawson by decision be the better bet? There's no way he's knocking out Ward.

yep, very high chance this goes the distance. Only way it ends inside is a cut or accidental headbutt (which is very possible when SOG is fighting!)

[JoshB]

i think the fight startig rd 5 at -1363 is decent parlay material.

[sideloaded]

Ward is just a smarter boxer, He will adjust and find a way to win

[JamesKim]

yep, very high chance this goes the distance. Only way it ends inside is a cut or accidental headbutt (which is very possible when SOG is fighting!)

I think the fight will be a strategical fight with low work-rate. I don't really see a cut happening, but you never know.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I think the fight will be a strategical fight with low work-rate. I don't really see a cut happening, but you never know.

If you see dawson having a low work rate wouldn't that make it real tough for him to steal a decision on Ward's turf?

[JamesKim]

If you see dawson having a low work rate wouldn't that make it real tough for him to steal a decision on Ward's turf?

I think Ward is a justified favorite. I just think that +532 odds for Dawson by dec is way off. Beating an old Hopkins is still more impressive than anything Ward has done, and Dawson is a very solid fighter. This fight will be close, way closer than the lines reflect. I see ward winning this, but I might still lay money on Dawson by decision.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I think Ward is a justified favorite. I just think that +532 odds for Dawson by dec is way off. Beating an old Hopkins is still more impressive than anything Ward has done, and Dawson is a very solid fighter. This fight will be close, way closer than the lines reflect. I see ward winning this, but I might still lay money on Dawson by decision.

You didn't answer my question. I asked would Dawson having a low work rate make it difficult for him to win a decision, let alone on Ward's turf?

[JamesKim]

You didn't answer my question. I asked would Dawson having a low work rate make it difficult for him to win a decision, let alone on Ward's turf?

Please look up the word "implication".

[Mercersux]

The fight at these odds is definitely off. This fight should be ward as a slight fav. Think the fact that it's in oakland bump ward's odds up a bit but this much is wacky. Small play on dawson and the over for the hedge. Love that this fight is on hbo and chavez-martinez fight is on ppv. This fight is far and away the more superior fight.

[iQon]

Beating an old Hopkins is still more impressive than anything Ward has done

I guess you're omitting the last 2 years of Ward's career and 5 years of Hopkins'.

Nothing impressive about Dawson beating a 47 year old Hopkins at all. There's a reason Bernard ducked Chad for as long as he did.

[JerseyRobby]

Beating an old Hopkins is still more impressive than anything Ward has done,

That's pure stupidity and sounds like the words of a casual fan. Ward cleaned out one of the deepest divisions in boxing and came out undefeated from the Super Six. Before the tourney nobody thought somebody would go undefeated in the tourney. Just because Froch, Kessler, and AA aren't mainstream in America doesn't change the fact that they are great fighters. Froch just demolished Bute, AA just won the belt against Stieglitz and Kessler's only two losses are against the two most accomplished 168 pound champions in the history of the sport.

[JoshB]

maybe im being a bit racists/stupid, but ward has been defeating some pretty basic, slow, white fighters. this is the first slick brother that he has faced, maybe he won't be able to deal with the change of style.

[DeFactoCrippler]

maybe im being a bit racists/stupid, but ward has been defeating some pretty basic, slow, white fighters. this is the first slick brother that he has faced, maybe he won't be able to deal with the change of style.

The problem is that Dawsons work rate has been real low, especially against b-hop, even the people who are betting Dawson are saying that. Thats a big problem because

1. It obviously won't impress the judges because they will not be on his side.

2. More importantly, if Dawson doesn't throw a lot of punches then Ward will be able to get on the inside and touch him up. So you have to hope that Dawson gets his work rate up, when he has had problems in the past, and now he is at a lower weight class than he is comfortable.

[Mercersux]

The problem is that Dawsons work rate has been real low, especially against b-hop, even the people who are betting Dawson are saying that. Thats a big problem because

1. It obviously won't impress the judges because they will not be on his side.

2. More importantly, if Dawson doesn't throw a lot of punches then Ward will be able to get on the inside and touch him up. So you have to hope that Dawson gets his work rate up, when he has had problems in the past, and now heI is at a lower weight class than he is comfortable.

Couple of valid points you've brought up but let me advocate for dawson here. Now I really haven't picked a side yet since I consider this fight to be razor close aside from the fact ward's fighting in his hometown. (in boxing a definitive edge) Dawson is probably in the best shape of his life. Just look at his walk around weight atm. The cut will be little problem for him. Now true his work rate has never been very high but under the circumstances of where he's fighting and who, id think he understands that he needs to throw effective punches and attempt to keep his volume up. I also have a difficult time seeing ward keep dawson up against the rope in order to really get on the inside and do work. Especially against a bigger fighter like dawson. How I personally see this fight breaking down is ward needing to keep this fight in the edges of the ring because in the middle, dawson wins.

[JoshB]

Dawson has very good foot movement though, so Its not gonna be that easy to get inside on him. Hes an expert at keeping guys at bay. And ward isnt exactly a great volume puncher himself. Go look at the Abraham fight and see how little he did in alot of those rounds. And ward aint that great on the outside imo, from what i have seen, hes great in close and at midrange but chad is way better on the outside. Im just playing devils advocate though, im not betting on dawson, just a play on the over for me.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Couple of valid points you've brought up but let me advocate for dawson here. Now I really haven't picked a side yet since I consider this fight to be razor close aside from the fact ward's fighting in his hometown. (in boxing a definitive edge) Dawson is probably in the best shape of his life. Just look at his walk around weight atm. The cut will be little problem for him. Now true his work rate has never been very high but under the circumstances of where he's fighting and who, id think he understands that he needs to throw effective punches and attempt to keep his volume up.

I'm not saying the cut will be a problem for him per se, but I just can't put my money on Dawson to do something he has problems with in the past (punch volume), especially when there are new variables at play like the weight. The best thing Dawson backers can hope for is that it won't negatively effect him. Because it definitely wont help him.

Dawson has very good foot movement though, so Its not gonna be that easy to get inside on him. Hes an expert at keeping guys at bay. And ward isnt exactly a great volume puncher himself. Go look at the Abraham fight and see how little he did in alot of those rounds. And ward aint that great on the outside imo, from what i have seen, hes great in close and at midrange but chad is way better on the outside. Im just playing devils advocate though, im not betting on dawson, just a play on the over for me.

I agree he will be in good shape if he keeps it on the outside, but imo he has to do that by throwing a lo of jabs. If he does manage to evade him on footwork alone using his recent punch output it will appear to the judges that he is fighting off his back foot and they are "arguably" looking for reasons to give Ward rounds.

You basically have a guy in Dawson that I think we all can agree is not likely to KO Ward, with a history of low work rate, who is fighting on his opponents turf, biased crowding cheering every punch Ward throws, and also where there could be possible home cooking involved. It's the kiss of death.

[bird]

I like this bet. Chad Dawson is a great boxer and at those odds really worth putting some money on. I do think Andre Ward will win a decision victory but I just can't pass up these odds on Dawson.

[Vaughany]

Boxing people: I'm a fighter that's shared MANY rounds with Andre Ward. On the outside, he is nothing special. Good speed, smart with decent power. One thing that's underrated of his, is his timing. He is very accurate with good timing, he knows how to hit and not get hit. Not like a Pernell Whitaker, but he has ways of rolling, slipping and smothering your shots, his movement is good also. I think that Dawson is faster than Ward, he's taller and stronger. This match boils down to who's the most discipline on fight night! - Eric Kelly

[JamesKim]

That's pure stupidity and sounds like the words of a casual fan. Ward cleaned out one of the deepest divisions in boxing and came out undefeated from the Super Six. Before the tourney nobody thought somebody would go undefeated in the tourney. Just because Froch, Kessler, and AA aren't mainstream in America doesn't change the fact that they are great fighters. Froch just demolished Bute, AA just won the belt against Stieglitz and Kessler's only two losses are against the two most accomplished 168 pound champions in the history of the sport.

Nah. The way that Dawson beat B-Hop is still more impressive than any of the opponents you put there. Dawson also beat Adamek, who was undefeated at the time. Sure, beating Froch is pretty impressive, but you can't really say that Ward has a better resume than Dawson. I also think the range advantage will play a factor considering Dawson's superior outside game.

I still think Ward is a better boxer. I honestly think he should be a slight favorite. The odds are ridiculous though, +521 on Dawson by Dec is a steal.

Btw, Hopkins would still beat anyone that Ward has beat.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Dawson landed 29 of 187 punches in that fight. He basically only threw 18 punches per round on average only landing 3.