[gabe]

don't do that.

why not? you've admitted to not knowing shit about betting NFL, so what are you saying? lol... buying points has saved me a few times.

[NunyaBidness]

why not? you've admitted to not knowing shit about betting NFL, so what are you saying? lol... buying points has saved me a few times.

I'm proud to know nothing about the NFL. It's my most profitable sport.

Buying points costs more than the value gained. Google 'nfl push chart'.

If you somehow found a book that gave you a standard price across all lines you'd have a profitable situation. But every book charges extra to move on or off the 3 and 7.

[PunisherIND]

Here are my picks for KSW 20:

Karol Bedorf -270
Boris Mankowski -260
Anzor Azhiev -350
$125 to win $180

nice hit brotha

[gabe]

I'm proud to know nothing about the NFL. It's my most profitable sport.

Buying points costs more than the value gained. Google 'nfl push chart'.

If you somehow found a book that gave you a standard price across all lines you'd have a profitable situation. But every book charges extra to move on or off the 3 and 7.

+2.5 at -110
+3.5 at -130

I have no problem taking the extra point.

[gabe]

nice hit brotha

respek.

[NunyaBidness]

+2.5 at -110
+3.5 at -130

I have no problem taking the extra point.

Wow, if thats true you have a goldmine on your hand.

See if your guy will take an out of towner, I'll give you 10% of profits every week.

[sideloaded]

always knew gabe was sharp

[sideloaded]

gabe what are the football plays this week?

[gabe]

Week 1: 7-4
Week 2: 5-6

Week 2 was probably the worst week I've had capping NFL in my 4 years... Let's bounce back with Week 3...

RAMS +7.5 (def worth a ML play at +310)

BUCCS +7.5 (buy 0.5pts, worth a shot at ML +270)

49ers -6.5 (buy 0.5pts)

Lions -175 ML

Jets -145 ML

Saints -8.5

Colts -155 ML

Cardinals +4

Falcons +3.5 (buy 0.5pts)

Texans -1.5


Recommended parlay:
Lions -175
Jets -145
Colts -155
Falcons +3
$30 to win $232

[Vitooch]

Titans will beat Lions!

[gabe]

Titans will beat Lions!

They're one of the worst teams in the league right now, but anything is possible...

[Vitooch]

This is the first week Washington and Britt will have a full week of practice reps without injuries being an issue. As long as Johnson doesn't shit the bed they will find success against this mediocre Lions defense.

[gabe]

This is the first week Washington and Britt will have a full week of practice reps without injuries being an issue. As long as Johnson doesn't shit the bed they will find success against this mediocre Lions defense.

You're hoping they will put up numbers... they will have to, because Detroit's insane offense surely will. Coming off a loss, if they wanna keep their playoff hopes alive, they gotta get back in the winning column, and no better way to do that than against one of the top 3 worst teams in the league.

That said, I've got a small play on Titans to win the Super Bowl haha

Also have Jets, Raiders, Giants, 49ers, and Falcons... shoulda put something on the Texans, too.

[Vitooch]

Titans have some explosive weapons offensively, and for now they don't have to worry about injuries like Week 1 and 2. Look for the Titans to improve from their awful offensive showings. Lions offense hasnt been insane this season. Stafford and Johnson always have the potential to have a huge game but I have a feeling that Titans will play satisfactory enough defense to give the offense an opportunity to make big plays down the field. The line and ML indicate that this game will be closer than it appears.

[Vitooch]

Like other picks for the most part but I think Chargers beat Falcons. Chargers underrated this season with Matthews returning from injury with a whole week of practice.

[gabe]

I think Falcons are looking great and have made improvements in the offseason...

Lions offense looked good in week 1. I didn't watch the week 2 game. Lions have a great QB. Titans don't have a QB.

[Vitooch]

If there was one glaring problem for the Titans in Week 1 and 2, it would be there running game and defense. Locker is decent and will look better with a receiving core that is finally healthy with a week of practice. Tough to defend my play but just have one of those feelings.

[gabe]

If there was one glaring problem for the Titans in Week 1 and 2, it would be there running game and defense. Locker is decent and will look better with a receiving core that is finally healthy with a week of practice. Tough to defend my play but just have one of those feelings.

so it's just from a cappers perspective and not 'cos you're a titans fan?

[sideloaded]

heard billy walters in on the titans

[Educ8d Degener8]

Gabers - Stafford and the entire Lions offense has not looked in sync thus far -- granted they played a stellar D in SF on Sunday; but fwiw, they're mostly just chucking it to Calvin. Titus has been a complete dud, and Stafford has looked "off". The duck he threw in the SF game was perhaps the worst throw I've ever seen him throw. So they'll either get it together and stomp sh*t or expose themselves outright on the road in TN. I gotta admit, at the moment, I'm leaning TN, as I'm a sucker for that hook that's on the line now. I rode the Rams, Seahawks, and Colts as home teams last week, and the Titans are luring me into a similar play.

GL regardless

[gabe]

My fav plays are: Jets -145, Rams +7.5, and Texans -1.5

[Jesus Christ]

Week 1: 7-4
Week 2: 5-6

Week 2 was probably the worst week I've had capping NFL in my 4 years... Let's bounce back with Week 3...

RAMS +7.5 (def worth a ML play at +310)

BUCCS +7.5 (buy 0.5pts, worth a shot at ML +270)

49ers -6.5 (buy 0.5pts)

Lions -175 ML

Jets -145 ML

Saints -8.5

Colts -155 ML

Cardinals +4

Falcons +3.5 (buy 0.5pts)

Texans -1.5


Recommended parlay:
Lions -175
Jets -145
Colts -155
Falcons +3
$30 to win $232

[Vitooch]

Not really a fan of any time. I do love me some gronk and Brady though

[Vitooch]

Really like Texans

[gabe]

my man!

[gabe]

UFC 152

Top picks:


#1- Lance Benoist -170
A very talented and versatile mixed martial artist goes up against the very mediocre (at best) Sean Pierson. I think Lance should be able to take a unanimous decision, if not end it by sub. This is the best line on the card, and I will be max betting it at several different books.

#2- Joseph Benavidez -260
I just think Joe B is the better fighter. I've only ever bet him once before, when he fought Wineland, and I went all-in there... Given I'm having a really good night up to this point, I will likely be all-in here, too... but either way, it's gonna be a big play for me. Besides speed, he's got the advantage everywhere. I could see him getting a finish within 5 rds, but more than likely, he will win 3 rounds to 2 or 4 rounds to 1 and get the decision.

#3- Jim Hettes -440
I was really loving this play. I had no idea Hettes would be such a big fav, but I suppose it's rightfully so. I predict he takes Brimage down and controls him on the ground en route to a decision. He will be looking for subs, and Brimage's sub defense is good, but this could easily end with a Hettes sub, kid's a beast.

#4- Matt Hamill -350
He's focused, he's back in shape, and he's...ugh, back!! He will take Hollett down and ground and pound his way to a TKO stoppage. I think this is going to be an easy fight for Matt.

#5- Michael Bisping -175
He's the better fighter, bottom line. More skilled, all around. If he applies his wrestling rather than standing and banging, this will be an easy win for ol' Mike.

#6- Seth Baczynski -140
Seth keeps this standing and likely gets a late finish.

#7- Evan Dunham -185
Again, here I'm going with whoever I believe is the better fighter. Only thing that scares me about this fight is TJ's size. Dunham is one of the best lightweights in the division, though, IMO. I think he will do enough to take the decision.


Rest:

I will have small plays on Walel Watson and Charlie Brenneman. I like the value on Vini Mag and Cub Swanson, so I will have plays on them, also. This will be my first time ever wagering on Swanson. I think this fight either ends with him getting tapped out (likely from a choke,) or him scoring a KO. The best play on this fight would be Oliveira by Submission, as I think it is the most likely outcome, but I don't think it's that much more likely than a Swanson KO. Good chances of both happening, a little more for the Oliveira sub, but at these odds, Swanson by KO is a gift line. I have Cub Swanson capped at +160 for this fight, so I will gladly take the +210. The value on Vini Mag isn't great, it's about right. He's only worth a small play, though. Vini Mag by Sub might be worth a shot. Going small on Watson and Brenneman 'cos I think they are over-juiced. Watson should not be such a big favorite. If you've got a lot riding on him, then a Gagnon by KO hedge might not be a bad idea. Dude has power in his hands, can get lucky and catch anyone early on in a fight. I think he could also end it with a powerful shot to the body. The value is slightly with Gagnon, I think, but the theme of the night is going with the more skilled fighters, it seems. Watson should be able to avoid mistakes and walk away with the win. If he doesn't get put away in the first, he will easily win the next 2 rounds. He should be able to win 30-27 or get a late stoppage. If the line on him was -180 instead of the -205 I'm getting, he would have been one of my top plays, probably.

Last but not least, Jon Jones -750.
Jon Jones Inside the Distance is THE play here!!

[sideloaded]

yep main event doesnt last more than a round

[Vaughany]

UFC 152

Top picks:


#1- Lance Benoist -170
A very talented and versatile mixed martial artist goes up against the very mediocre (at best) Sean Pierson. I think Lance should be able to take a unanimous decision, if not end it by sub. This is the best line on the card, and I will be max betting it at several different books.

#2- Joseph Benavidez -260
I just think Joe B is the better fighter. I've only ever bet him once before, when he fought Wineland, and I went all-in there... Given I'm having a really good night up to this point, I will likely be all-in here, too... but either way, it's gonna be a big play for me. Besides speed, he's got the advantage everywhere. I could see him getting a finish within 5 rds, but more than likely, he will win 3 rounds to 2 or 4 rounds to 1 and get the decision.

#3- Jim Hettes -440
I was really loving this play. I had no idea Hettes would be such a big fav, but I suppose it's rightfully so. I predict he takes Brimage down and controls him on the ground en route to a decision. He will be looking for subs, and Brimage's sub defense is good, but this could easily end with a Hettes sub, kid's a beast.

#4- Matt Hamill -350
He's focused, he's back in shape, and he's...ugh, back!! He will take Hollett down and ground and pound his way to a TKO stoppage. I think this is going to be an easy fight for Matt.

#5- Michael Bisping -175
He's the better fighter, bottom line. More skilled, all around. If he applies his wrestling rather than standing and banging, this will be an easy win for ol' Mike.

#6- Seth Baczynski -140
Seth keeps this standing and likely gets a late finish.

#7- Evan Dunham -185
Again, here I'm going with whoever I believe is the better fighter. Only thing that scares me about this size is TJ's size. Dunham is one of the best lightweights in the division, though, IMO. I think he will do enough to take the decision.


Rest:

I will have small plays on Walel Watson and Charlie Brenneman. I like the value on Vini Mag and Cub Swanson, so I will have plays on them, also. This will be my first time ever wagering on Swanson. I think this fight either ends with him getting tapped out (likely from a choke,) or him scoring a KO. The best play on this fight would be Oliveira by Submission, as I think it is the most likely outcome, but I don't think it's that much more likely than a Swanson KO. Good chances of both happening, a little more for the Oliveira sub, but at these odds, Swanson by KO is a gift line. I have Cub Swanson capped at +160 for this fight, so I will gladly take the +210. The value on Vini Mag isn't great, it's about right. He's only worth a small play, though. Vini Mag by Sub might be worth a shot. Going small on Watson and Brenneman 'cos I think they are over-juiced. Watson should not be such a big favorite. If you've got a lot riding on him, then a Gagnon by KO hedge might not be a bad idea. Dude has power in his hands, can get lucky and catch anyone early on in a fight. I think he could also end it with a powerful shot to the body. The value is slightly with Gagnon, I think, but the theme of the night is going with the more skilled fighters, it seems. Watson should be able to avoid mistakes and walk away with the win. If he doesn't get put away in the first, he will easily win the next 2 rounds. He should be able to win 30-27 or get a late stoppage. If the line on him was -180 instead of the -205 I'm getting, he would have been one of my top plays, probably.

Last but not least, Jon Jones -750.
Jon Jones Inside the Distance is THE play here!!

On the Benoist train as well cousin Gabriel... let's cash this

[gabe]

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[PunisherIND]

Gabe (or anyone else) betting on Emmys?

I like Bryan Cranston for best drama actor, Claire Danes best drama actress, and modern family best comedy series, all at about Evens.

Also Like breaking bad for best drama series at +290. Think it ends mad men streak this year.

[gabe]

Gabe (or anyone else) betting on Emmys?

I like Bryan Cranston for best drama actor, Claire Danes best drama actress, and modern family best comedy series, all at about Evens.

Also Like breaking bad for best drama series at +290. Think it ends mad men streak this year.

I don't get the lines for emmy's, but my picks are: Cranston for Best Actor in Drama, Claire Danes/Best Actress, Modern Family for Comedy, but Curb Your Enthusiasm is worth a bet as a big dog,

[PunisherIND]

I don't get the lines for emmy's, but my picks are: Cranston for Best Actor in Drama, Claire Danes/Best Actress, Modern Family for Comedy, but Curb Your Enthusiasm is worth a bet as a big dog,

Thanks bud. Any lean for best drama?

[gabe]

Thanks bud. Any lean for best drama?

breaking bad is worth a shot at those odds... so is boardwalk empire... but its mad men vs breaking bad i think

[v1y]

always scared when i agree with gabe about anything.

[Digo]

yep main event doesnt last more than a round

Definitely will not last 5 rounds, but I think it lasts two or three. Belfort should come very cautious, as he came against Anderson, afraid of being TD, moving around... I believe the first round will have very little action.