[PunisherIND]

UFC 152: Jones vs. Machida II

Date: Sep 22, 2012

Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Venue: Air Canada Centre
Broadcast: Pay-per-view and FX

• Champ Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida - for light-heavyweight title
• Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson - for inaugural flyweight title
• Michael Bisping vs. Brian Stann
• Evan Dunham vs. T.J. Grant
• Matt Hamill vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
• Charles Oliveira vs. Cub Swanson
• Charlie Brenneman vs. Kyle Noke
• Vinny Magalhaes vs. Igor Pokrajac
• Dan Miller vs. TBA
• Marcus Brimage vs. Jim Hettes
• Seth Baczynski vs. Simeon Thoresen
• Mitch Gagnon vs. Walel Watson

played jones at -470, but may hedge with machida kotn. as pissed as dana is at jones, if machida scores the ko (only way he wins imo), you can pretty much lock it up for kotn.

[Crassus]

Bisping by submission at + odds ya think?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Jon jones vs vitor belfort

[Vaughany]

Bisping by submission at + odds ya think?

May be worth a flier. I don't think Bisping is going to take Stann down very easily though. Aside from already having much improved takedown defence from what he used to have, Stann has also spent some time working with Chael Sonnen, and currently has Raymond Jordan living with him during this camp. Raymond is one of Jordan Burroughs' training partners/coach, he's a two-time NCAA All-American at Missouri and fourth most wins in Missouri history. IMO Bisping's defensive grappling is a lot better than his offensive grappling and he's admitted this himself.

Quite funny video of Raymond Jordan signing autographs when people thought he was Jordan Burroughs after Burroughs won Gold!...

[El Nino]

Hey V, it's not like Jackson's MMA doesn't have good wrestlers. Do you really think it matters at this stage in a guy's fighting career that he's been training more wrestling? I feel like at this point in Stann's career, he either has it or he doesn't. As far as wrestling is concerned, he doesn't. I just feel like he's one of those one dimensional fighters.

[El Nino]

Also Benavidez vs. Mighty Mouse FOTN prop. There is NO WAY Dana is paying Bones a bonus this fight. I don't care if this is a FOTY candidate, Bones ain't getting any extra $ from pissy Uncle Dana.

[Vaughany]

Hey V, it's not like Jackson's MMA doesn't have good wrestlers. Do you really think it matters at this stage in a guy's fighting career that he's been training more wrestling? I feel like at this point in Stann's career, he either has it or he doesn't. As far as wrestling is concerned, he doesn't. I just feel like he's one of those one dimensional fighters.

Yep quite right, but my point is that he isnt just abandoning working on his main weakness even though he's fighting a guy that is most likely going to keep it standing. His wrestling and overall grappling ability is never going to be close to the level of the top guys in MW but doesn't mean his continued improvements combined with natural athleticism wont be enough to stop somebody like Bisping from taking him down. If Bisping attempts those telegraphed trip takedowns like he did against Rivera then I cant see him having the same success. Also, if Bisping is attempting a takedown it means that he's in a range were you dont really want to be with Stann - close quarters where Stann can land uppercuts and knees like he did against Leben.

[Vaughany]

Also Benavidez vs. Mighty Mouse FOTN prop. There is NO WAY Dana is paying Bones a bonus this fight. I don't care if this is a FOTY candidate, Bones ain't getting any extra $ from pissy Uncle Dana.

Yep I'll be on tht as well

[El Nino]

Yep quite right, but my point is that he isnt just abandoning working on his main weakness even though he's fighting a guy that is most likely going to keep it standing. His wrestling and overall grappling ability is never going to be close to the level of the top guys in MW but doesn't mean his continued improvements combined with natural athleticism wont be enough to stop somebody like Bisping from taking him down. If Bisping attempts those telegraphed trip takedowns like he did against Rivera then I cant see him having the same success. Also, if Bisping is attempting a takedown it means that he's in a range were you dont really want to be with Stann - close quarters where Stann can land uppercuts and knees like he did against Leben.

Very true. I am starting to come around on Bisping and liked him at initial look in this fight. I just hope he stays smart and keeps it technical. He gets destroyed in a brawl here but if he's smart, out point him and mix in some ground work. If Bisping gets past the 1st round, I think he's ok. Did you have any initial leans?

[iQon]

I hear Machida turned the fight down so it's going to be Jones/Vitor.

[Vaughany]

Very true. I am starting to come around on Bisping and liked him at initial look in this fight. I just hope he stays smart and keeps it technical. He gets destroyed in a brawl here but if he's smart, out point him and mix in some ground work. If Bisping gets past the 1st round, I think he's ok. Did you have any initial leans?

There are a few options here IMO...either Bisping straight up and Stann TKO/KO (payout wont be great though), or Bisping by decision and Stann by TKO/KO if you don't think Bisping will be able to finish Stann which is what Im leaning to, or swapping Stann by TKO/KO with Stann KOTN at better odds.

As you say, if Bisping gets caught up in a brawl it's likely that Stann can take more punishment than Bisping can and Bisping will fall first. But even if he does fight extremely strategically and looks to outpoint him like he does in most fights like the Akiyama, Miller, Leben fights then he has a much better chance but even then he can still be caught. The fact is that he gets tagged in most fights. He was dropped by Wanderlei and Kang but showed great recovery and composure. He got tagged by Akiyama and Rivera and showed that his chin isn't bad at all contrary to what many sherdoggers claim. But regardless of whether it shows he has great recovery and half decent chin, it still also demonstrates that he is hittable and doesnt have as amazing footwork and head movement as some might think. And if he gets tagged by Brian Stann it's going to be very different to getting tagged by Kang, Akiyama or Rivera!

[AdamB]

There are a few options here IMO...either Bisping straight up and Stann TKO/KO (payout wont be great though), or Bisping by decision and Stann by TKO/KO if you don't think Bisping will be able to finish Stann which is what Im leaning to, or swapping Stann by TKO/KO with Stann KOTN at better odds.

As you say, if Bisping gets caught up in a brawl it's likely that Stann can take more punishment than Bisping can and Bisping will fall first. But even if he does fight extremely strategically and looks to outpoint him like he does in most fights like the Akiyama, Miller, Leben fights then he has a much better chance but even then he can still be caught. The fact is that he gets tagged in most fights. He was dropped by Wanderlei and Kang but showed great recovery and composure. He got tagged by Akiyama and Rivera and showed that his chin isn't bad at all contrary to what many sherdoggers claim. But regardless of whether it shows he has great recovery and half decent chin, it still also demonstrates that he is hittable and doesnt have as amazing footwork and head movement as some might think. And if he gets tagged by Brian Stann it's going to be very different to getting tagged by Kang, Akiyama or Rivera!

One thing I can't seem to remember without watching tape is how Stann's cardio is. Don't remember the Massenzio fight very well and past that all the fights were quite quick. What are your thoughts on it?

[Vaughany]

One thing I can't seem to remember without watching tape is how Stann's cardio is. Don't remember the Massenzio fight very well and past that all the fights were quite quick. What are your thoughts on it?

Solid cardio, combined with a will to win and mental strength that few others have. The fact he managed to sub Massenzio in third round after a draining grapple-heavy fight in his first fight at MW (where there were questions about how the weight-cut would effect him) speaks volumes IMO. Although obviously he may have never faced an opponent who pushes the pace like Bisping (at least in stand-up department) where Bisping will be constantly moving and scoring points. Sonnen pushes a high pace but that was grapple based rather than stand-up

[AdamB]

Solid cardio, combined with a will to win and mental strength that few others have. The fact he managed to sub Massenzio in third round after a draining grapple-heavy fight in his first fight at MW (where there were questions about how the weight-cut would effect him) speaks volumes IMO. Although obviously he may have never faced an opponent who pushes the pace like Bisping (at least in stand-up department) where Bisping will be constantly moving and scoring points. Sonnen pushes a high pace but that was grapple based rather than stand-up

Ah right, cheers mate. I also feel that while Bisping could outgrapple him, he might not want to take the risk of getting in close and having Stann potentially brutalise him from there - mostly a matter of Bisping being able to maintain his movement throughout the fight without getting clipped. I just can't see him being able to plant his feet to throw any 'power' strikes, because I think Stann can walk through almost anything Bisping can throw at him.

[Vaughany]

Ah right, cheers mate. I also feel that while Bisping could outgrapple him, he might not want to take the risk of getting in close and having Stann potentially brutalise him from there - mostly a matter of Bisping being able to maintain his movement throughout the fight without getting clipped. I just can't see him being able to plant his feet to throw any 'power' strikes, because I think Stann can walk through almost anything Bisping can throw at him.

yeah my thinking as well. One thing to consider (although completely speculative) is that Bisping might be overlooking and undestimating Stann (despite what he may claim in interviews) and get a bit reckless. Bisping has been more aggressive in his last three fights (particular against Rivera and Mayhem due to the beef between them I guess!) and against Sonnen he didnt really have a chance to push forward due to Sonnen's grind against the cage style. So maybe he will find it difficult reverting back to his more default style of backpedalling and circling and picking apart his opponents? Maybe he'll be in a false sense of security and think he can do the same against Stann as he did against Rivera and Mayhem? Again, just pure speculation

[AdamB]

yeah my thinking as well. One thing to consider (although completely speculative) is that Bisping might be overlooking and undestimating Stann (despite what he may claim in interviews) and get a bit reckless. Bisping has been more aggressive in his last three fights (particular against Rivera and Mayhem due to the beef between them I guess!) and against Sonnen he didnt really have a chance to push forward due to Sonnen's grind against the cage style. So maybe he will find it difficult reverting back to his more default style of backpedalling and circling and picking apart his opponents? Maybe he'll be in a false sense of security and think he can do the same against Stann as he did against Rivera and Mayhem? Again, just pure speculation

Well, if you include the fact that Weidman finished his last fight in spectacular fashion and isn't getting a title shot, you've got to think he knows he needs to put on a show. If he eeks out a decision with pitter patter shots, he's facing at least one more fight for the title, maybe against Weidman. He needs to put on an amazing performance here, and as you say that may lead to him being more aggressive which ultimately could be his downfall.

[PaperTrail07]

UFC politics turning into some f\*g shit

[PaperTrail07]

and bisbing wont get near knocking out any quality fighter

[DirtyX]

Well at least the card is stacked.

[Vitooch]

I have a feeling Stann will knock Bisping out. Bisping fights timidly against big power punchers. It negatively affects his performance in the process. He was aggressive against Miller, Akiyama, and Mayhem because he knew he wasnt going to get knocked out. Against Wanderlai and Hendo he seemed to shy away from any exchanges in the fear of getting tagged.

[more_betterness]

Thoughts on Benavidez v. Mighty Mouse? I already have a good amount on Joe B. at -280 and think he is literally superior in every area besides speed and footwork. McCall had success imposing his size/power against Johnson and Benavidez couples his power advantage with way more speed than Creepy.

[xelance]

This card SHOULD be UFC 151, why the heck would it be UFC 152 if UFC 151 never happened? Doesnt make sense at all unless they want to call UFC 151 the lost event or some shit.

[more_betterness]

Dana deemed 151 "The card that Jon Jones and Greg Jackson murdered" yesterday, or something along those lines.

[Crassus]

[QUOTE=Vaughany;15766602]May be worth a flier. I don't think Bisping is going to take Stann down very easily though. Aside from already having much improved takedown defence from what he used to have, Stann has also spent some time working with Chael Sonnen, and currently has Raymond Jordan living with him during this camp. Raymond is one of Jordan Burroughs' training partners/coach, he's a two-time NCAA All-American at Missouri and fourth most wins in Missouri history. IMO Bisping's defensive grappling is a lot better than his offensive grappling and he's admitted this himself.

Quite funny video of Raymond Jordan signing autographs when people thought he was Jordan Burroughs after Burroughs won Gold!...




Fair nuff. I feel like he'll knock Bisping down and then Bisping will throw the triangle/choke. He just looked so comically lost on the ground against Sonnen. Though I spose he fought off submissions from Phil Davis.

[PunisherIND]

If you’re looking to juice up your bet and don’t want to lay 3 to 1 one Joey B, then think about throwing him in a parlay.

[PunisherIND]

jones/belfort ITD -750 on 5D

[Beelzebubzy]

Parlayed it with Joey b and Cormier

[PunisherIND]

Parlayed it with Joey b and Cormier

I like it and was thinking along the same lines. I parlayed with benavidez and rory mac.

[Vaughany]

[QUOTE=PunisherIND;15778308


[/QUOTE]

ha Is Jay Dee Gabe's stage name?!

[MMA Fan]

Belfort's name seems to carry a certain cache because his career stretches from almost the beginning of the UFC to this phase of MMA. I think that's part of the reason this fight is happening.

With regards to the distance parlay, one thing that concerns me is Belfort's chin(which was great, aside from Silva, who always stops them anyways) and how he tends to fight very conservatively and defensively off his back. He gives up easily, but he tends to make it to decision. Jones is such a lethal finisher though, so the risk isn't much. But you never know. Jones seems to be trying to make his game well-rounded, so his finishing dominantly has went down, as he doesn't just take guys down and maul them like he could.

[MMA Fan]

yeah my thinking as well. One thing to consider (although completely speculative) is that Bisping might be overlooking and undestimating Stann (despite what he may claim in interviews) and get a bit reckless. Bisping has been more aggressive in his last three fights (particular against Rivera and Mayhem due to the beef between them I guess!) and against Sonnen he didnt really have a chance to push forward due to Sonnen's grind against the cage style. So maybe he will find it difficult reverting back to his more default style of backpedalling and circling and picking apart his opponents? Maybe he'll be in a false sense of security and think he can do the same against Stann as he did against Rivera and Mayhem? Again, just pure speculation

I dont think Bisping takes anyone lightly honestly, as cocky as he seems in interviews. He may talk the talk, but he fights very safely. Even with the Rivera fight, he was shooting takedowns in massive numbers early on, knowing full well that it would behoove him to get Rivera guessing and wear his shoddy gastank out. With the Mayhem fight, even with Miller massively gassed, he took awhile to finally go for the finish on the ground, and he kept himself in position to stand up at all times.

Originally, I was gonna steer clear of this fight due to the Bisping's lack of power vs Stann's power factor. But I just got the feeling we're gonna see Bisping turn this into a grappling and clinching contest, where his superior cardio will come into play. For whatever reason, Bisping just doesn't get tired in fights. That's hard to bet against.

[bjpenn85]

Its a good point. It may have something to do with the H-Bomb!

[Digo]

jones/belfort ITD -750 on 5D

I think this odd has value, i was expecting -900 or even worse. Very small chance this fight goes to the distance, to me, Jones is going to do exactly what Couture did with Belfort in the third fight between them. Belfort can't take Jones' gnp by 5 rounds and even if the miracle happens (Belfort by tko/ko), the fight will still be over inside the distance.

[PunisherIND]

new prop lines

bones ITD -350
stann ITD +350
not stann by decision -514
not mighty mouse ITD -1337

[Beelzebubzy]

Not mm inside = elite nerd style