UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cowboy vs. Gaethje (September 14, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje
Nikita Krylov vs Glover Teixeira
Todd Duffee vs Jeff Hughes
Michel Pereira vs TBA
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Uriah Hall
Misha Cirkunov vs Jim Crute

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Augusto Sakai vs Marcin Tybura
Miles Johns vs Cole Smith
Andrew Sanchez vs Marvin Vettori
Hunter Azure vs Brad Katona
Jordan Griffin vs Chas Skelly
Ryan MacDonald vs Louis Smolks
Austin Hubbard vs Kyle Prepolec

[Teem]

These are the fighters I'm interested in betting...

Gaethje
Vettori
Johns
Katona
Teixeira
Hubbard

[JC2008]

Todd Duffee... Can't believe he's still around.

[JIBBBY]

Todd Duffee... Can't believe he's still around.

Glover Tex rounding 40 years of age has been around longer then most would think also..

[Thrilla]

Nikita Krylov vs Glover Teixeira should be easy capping for chin master/expert jibby.

[PaperTrail07]

Krylov Vs Tex is a wild fight IMO...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Cerrone at dog odds. He has been dominant against Orthodox (Right-Handed) fighters over his career.

[bjpenn85]

Liking Cerrone at dog odds. He has been dominant against Orthodox (Right-Handed) fighters over his career.

Its a question if Cerrone will survive round 1. If he can come out of round 1 without being badly hurt the fight will slowly but surely tip his way, i think. So actually Cerrone at dog odds are probably the best bet, prebet. But, if you have a 2 unit bet on Cerrone and he gets KOed, then thats 2 unit lost. If you wait, and bet him live, you can see if he survives. Personally i prefer that approach, but cant fault anyone for taking Cerrone at +170

[Thrilla]

Event Background

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Gaethje (also known as UFC Fight Night 158 or UFC on ESPN+ 16) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is planned to take place on September 14, 2019 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.^[1][2][3]

A lightweight bout between former UFC Lightweight Championship challenger Donald Cerrone and former WSOF Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje has been slated to serve as the event's headliner.^[4]

A middleweight bout between David Branch and Andrew Sanchez was scheduled for the event. However, it was reported that Branch was forced to pull from the event due to injury and he was replaced by Marvin Vettori.^[5]

A welterweight bout between Michel Pereira and Sergey Khadozhko was scheduled for the event. However, it was reported that Khadozhko was removed from the card due to alleged v(i)sa issues.^[6] He was replaced by promotional newcomer Tristan Connelly.^[7]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Cerrone_vs._Gaethje

[Hugo de Naranja]

Its a question if Cerrone will survive round 1. If he can come out of round 1 without being badly hurt the fight will slowly but surely tip his way, i think. So actually Cerrone at dog odds are probably the best bet, prebet. But, if you have a 2 unit bet on Cerrone and he gets KOed, then thats 2 unit lost. If you wait, and bet him live, you can see if he survives. Personally i prefer that approach, but cant fault anyone for taking Cerrone at +170

I do think Gaethje’s best chance is a R1 KO/TKO. But what if Cerrone wins R1 and becomes the favorite in Live Betting between rounds? Then you left (+165) or better on the table.

[PaperTrail07]

If Gae stops walking forward insta bet cowboy live LOL...

I do think Gaethje’s best chance is a R1 KO/TKO. But what if Cerrone wins R1 and becomes the favorite in Live Betting between rounds? Then you left (+165) or better on the table.

[bjpenn85]

I do think Gaethje’s best chance is a R1 KO/TKO. But what if Cerrone wins R1 and becomes the favorite in Live Betting between rounds? Then you left (+165) or better on the table.

With the pace and aggression of Gaethje combined with cerrones propensity to be a slow fighter, i dont need to tell you that, but im just thinking out loud, that will obviously be surprising and i will accept unlikely scenarios like that vs the risk of losing.

Especially when i think the risk of loosing is quite high. Wouldnt surprise me if the line on Cerrone ended up at +120 by fight time, although i think him loosing and gaethje winning in spectacular fashion last outing may keep the odds where they are as well.

[Squareguy]

Jeff Hughes feels like a gift. He gets to spar with Stipe on a regular basis and he’s fighting a guy with an extremely questionable chin who hasn’t fought for four years. Todd has 60 seconds to win this fight or he’s getting slept.

[magpie878]

Saw some article/video about Cerrone saying it's been difficult balancing training camp and parenting.

That would worry me if I was backing him.

[HurlSweatPants]

If Gae stops walking forward insta bet cowboy live LOL...

Agreed, he only stops moving forward if hes out or hurt. I still love the MJ fight (did it against DP too) when he got rocked and still waived him on while having Lee legs.

Gae by KO should be a definite hedge here if you're going to take Cowboy pre-fight, I just dont see another way that JG wins this without a KO.

[JIBBBY]

Cowboy 5 years ago beats Justin.. Today he gets KO'd.. Early ITD prop only -155 though.. KO prop will probably be -145.. ..

Sat 9/14

1009 Gaethje wins inside distance

-155

UFC on ESPN+ 16 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Rogers Arena - Vancouver, Canada - ESPN+
Sat 9/14		1001 Donald Cerrone		+170
10:30PM		1002 Justin Gaethje		-200

[Thrilla]

Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje should be easy capping for Jibbby too.

The chin master/expert has once again spoken.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups.. MMA MANIA parts 1 and 2.





135 lbs.: Hunter Azure vs. Brad Katona

Hunter Azure (7-0) — the latest prospect out of the MMA Lab in Glendale, Ariz. — enjoyed an impressive 8-1 amateur career before joining the pros in 2017. Four finishes in six wins got him a spot on the Contender Series, where he dominated Chris Ocon to earn a UFC contract.
He has knocked out four professional foes and submitted one other.
Brad Katona (8-1) — Daniel Cormier’s penultimate Featherweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Undefeated” — defeated Miocic No. 1 pick Kyler Phillips and teammate Bryce Mitchell before taking a decision over Jay Cucciniello in the finals. “Superman” made it 2-0 in the Octagon with a decision over Matthew Lopez, but couldn’t overcome the madcap wrestling of Merab Dvalishvili back in May.
He’ll give up two inches of height and six inches of reach to the 5’8” Azure.
Hunter Azure has yet to develop his mixed martial arts (MMA) MMA game beyond his A+ wrestling and some gnarly kicks. Thing is, that wrestling is exactly what Katona struggles with — “Superman” has given up nine takedowns in his last two fights. Admittedly, he dominated Lopez on the ground and Dvalishvili is an absolute freak whose cardio Azure can’t hope to match, but it still means the unseasoned newcomer has the means to beat an ostensibly “better” fighter.
The question here is whether Katona’s striking and Brazilian jiu-jitsu edges are enough to overcome the top control Azure will inevitably rack up. I keep going back-and-forth in my head, but I think Katona’s experience wins out. He ekes out a back-and-forth decision.
Prediction: Katona via split decision
Related
Gaethje Loses It On ‘S--t Human’ McGregor


145 lbs.: Jordan Griffin vs. Chas Skelly

Jordan Griffin (17-6) lived up to his “Native Savage” nickname in his “Contender Series” appearance, which saw him drop and choke out Maurice Mitchell for his fourth consecutive submission victory. He couldn’t do the same to fellow “Contender Series” alum Dan Ige, who used strong wrestling to grind out a decision victory.
He’ll have one inch of height and reach on “The Scrapper.”
Chas Skelly (17-4) dropped a decision to top prospect Mirsad Bektic in their shared Octagon debut, but bounced back to win six of his next seven, five of them by stoppage. He has since suffered a technical knockout loss to Jason Knight and been on the wrong end of an early submission stoppage against Bobby Moffett.
He has submitted 10 professional foes, five in the first round.
Griffin’s fight with Ige showed what happens when a more adept wrestler can keep his cool in the face of Griffin’s aggression, and despite his recent issues, Skelly has the arsenal to repeat “Dynamite’s” successful efforts. Beyond his takedown edge, Skelly is also a fearsome submission artist who won’t need much top control time to put Griffin away.
Griffin has considerable potential and still has time to develop at 29 years old. I don’t think nine months is enough for him to make the necessary technical improvements, though. Skelly catches a front choke in transition before too long.
Prediction: Skelly via first-round submission
Related
Gaethje Reacts To Scrapped July Fight With ‘Crackhead’ McGregor


135 lbs.: Ryan MacDonald vs. Louis Smolka

Ryan MacDonald (10-1) — a Midwest Championship Fighting double champ — claimed victory in his LFA debut before joining UFC as a late-notice replacement in March. “Main Event” found himself quickly hobbled by Chris Gutierrez’s leg kicks, ultimately suffering his first professional loss via unanimous decision.
He will have two inches of height and over four inches of reach on “Da Last Samurai.”
A four-fight skid ended Louis Smolka’s (15-6) original UFC run, which started at 5-1 and included both a headlining appearance and two post-fight bonuses. Three wins on the regional circuit led to a successful Octagon return against Sumudaerji, but Matt Schnell slowed his roll with a triangle choke less than four months later.
He has ended 13 of his 15 wins inside the distance, seven of them by submission.
Smolka is as mercurial a fighter as you’ll find in the sport, but the one constant is that he’s tough as nails. He’s more than durable enough to withstand MacDonald’s shots, and his recent efforts suggest that he’s finally shoring up his leaky wrestling. Though MacDonald can certainly hold his own on the feet, Smolka’s submission prowess is enough for him to end things after a single takedown.
While the upright, easy-to-hit MacDonald is a very beatable opponent, I wouldn’t be surprised by Smolka imploding once again. The skill gap is still enough for me to pick the Hawaiian, though. Smolka hits an early takedown and doesn’t take long to find MacDonald’s neck.
Prediction: Smolka via first-round submission
Related
Gaethje: ‘Cowboy’ Knocked Me Out In Sparring!


155 lbs.: Austin Hubbard vs. Kyle Prepolec

Austin Hubbard (10-3) defeated LFA standout Harvey Park in his promotional debut, then took a decision over Killys Mota to claim the promotion’s Lightweight title. He went on to meet ADCC champ Davi Ramos in his Octagon debut, losing a unanimous decision in Rochester.
“Thud” will have a two-inch reach advantage on Kyle Prepolec (12-6).
Windsor, Ontario’s Prepolec knocked out Scott Hudson for the BTC Lightweight title before defeating his first UFC veteran in Cody Pfister last March. He stepped up in weight to fight Nordine Taleb in his last-minute UFC debut, struggling with the far larger man’s length en route to a decision loss.
Seven of his professional wins, including three of his last four, have come by form of knockout.
Not going to lie, both of these men turned in such forgettable debuts that it’s hard to have faith in my assessment of their abilities. I actually had to go back and read what I wrote about them to jog my memory. Based on that and their respective records, I like Hubbard here. Beyond having the stronger strength of schedule, he can hold his own on the feet and sports some wrestling chops in his back pocket to throw off Prepolec’s striking.
The takedowns might be the key — Prepolec is a remarkably poor defensive wrestler, allowing Hubbard to shift gears whenever things start going south. Hubbard blends punches and takedowns to claim a wide decision win.
Prediction: Hubbard via unanimous decision


265 lbs.: Augusto Sakai vs. Marcin Tybura

The hulking Augusto Sakai (13-1-1) out-brawled Marcos Conrado Jr. on “Contender Series: Brazil” to earn a contract, then did the same to Chase Sherman less than two months later in his Octagon debut. He turned in an uninspiring performance against Andrei Arlovski in April, but escaped with a controversial decision for his fourth consecutive victory.
Ten of his professional wins have come by form of knockout, half of them in the first round.
Marcin Tybura (17-5) rebounded from a loss in his Octagon debut to win three straight, including a bonus-winning head kick knockout of Viktor Pesta, and earn himself a headlining spot opposite Fabricio Werdum in Australia. “Tybur” wound up losing that fight, kicking off a 1-3 skid that includes knockout defeats to Derrick Lewis and Shamil Abdurakhimov.
He has picked up nine first-round finishes of his own.
As experienced and well-rounded as Tybura is, Sakai looks to be a problem for him. The Brazilian will likely be 20+ pounds larger in fight night, has good takedown defense, and carries his power late. Yes, Sakai looked pedestrian against Arlovski last time out, but so have almost all of “The Pitbull’s” recent opponents, Tybura included.
The big Pole hasn’t turned in an eye-catching effort since pounding out Luis Henrique in 2017. Sakai takes some kicks early, but his power and aggression will let him find the finish as the rounds progress.
Prediction: Sakai via second-round technical knockout
Related
Gaethje Loses It On ‘S--t Human’ McGregor


135 lbs.: Miles Johns vs. Cole Smith

Miles Johns (9-0) amassed a perfect (3-0) record under the LFA banner before challenging for its vacant Bantamweight belt, which he claimed with a split decision over Adrian Yanez. “Chapo” went on to fight Richie Santiago on “Contender Series,” and though he didn’t get the finish, neither did anyone else that night, allowing him to walk away with a contract.
He stands four inches shorter than “The Cole Train” at 5’7.”
Cole Smith (7-0) went from 4-3 amateur to top professional prospect in his native Canada, winning the Battlefield Fight League Bantamweight title in 2017 and defending it twice. This past May, he stepped up on short notice against veteran Mitch Gagnon and survived a late knockdown to claim victory in his Octagon debut.
Four of his seven professional stoppage wins have come by submission.
I like this match up a lot, and not just for being a clash of undefeated prospects. Johns has the stronger wrestling pedigree, but appeared to slow down in his Contender Series victory. Smith has been hurt before, but has a seemingly bottomless gas tank. Each man looks equipped to exploit the other’s weaknesses, and I expect both to come out of this as better fighters.
For me, what decides this coin-flip of a fight is Johns’ underrated power. Despite only two professional (technical) knockout finishes, he packs some heat in his right hand, and I can see him scoring a knockdown or two to sway the judges. While Smith will have greater success as the fight progresses, Johns will rack up enough early damage and top control to claim victory.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
Related
Gaethje Reacts To Scrapped July Fight With ‘Crackhead’ McGregor


185 lbs.: Andrew Sanchez vs. Marvin Vettori

Andrew Sanchez (11-4) enjoyed a dominant run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, where he secured Team Claudia’s total victory with a decision over Khalil Rountree at the Finale. He opened his Octagon career even (2-2), suffering comeback knockout losses courtesy of Anthony Smith and Ryan Janes, but has since picked up a pair of decision victories.
He stands one inch taller than the 6’0” “Italian Dream.”
Marvin Vettori (13-3) started his Octagon career strong with a pair of first-round submission, but stumbled into a 1-2-1 run and subsequent United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) suspension that put a dent in his momentum. Two months ago, he returned after 15 months away to dominate Cezar “Mutante” in Sacramento.
He replaces the injured David Branch on little more than six weeks’ notice.
Fix Sanchez’s cardio and you have a genuine contender. Strong wrestling, great Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and good power in his hands make him a difficult proposition for most of the division. As is, it’s hard to have faith in him, especially against someone as aggressive as Vettori. While Sanchez looks to have the technical edge, that won’t last too long once Vettori’s pace starts wearing him down.
A methodical Sanchez can win this, especially if Vettori’s relatively quick turnaround comes back to bit him. I just don’t think he can maintain a comfortable pace with Vettori refusing to get out of his face. Vettori takes over in the second and third to take a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Vettori via unanimous decision

[Teem]

^ I don't trust that guy's breakdowns anymore.

[Thrilla]

^ I don't trust that guy's breakdowns anymore.

[PaperTrail07]

lol never did

^ I don't trust that guy's breakdowns anymore.

[PaperTrail07]

Its like any of these predictions--they are too nervous to look dumb so they pick the obvious and don't dig in too much...-they miss they BET -people feel, -well I felt the same way F that fight-We got screwed or RANDOMLY KO's-unlucky ect.--instead of-OMG he took that 2:1 DOG what a dumbass fighter X whhoped his all LOL.....

These guys are clowns.....never do you hear an argument for a dog to win---just "he may have a better chance" than odds predict ect..lol..

[JAKEPEAVY21]

it's kill or be killed for Cerrone

I think I like Gaethje via KO, not convinced Cerrone can weather the storm

[PaperTrail07]

I dunno good plus $ against a guy w not much defense lol......great fight to watch-that's for sure

it's kill or be killed for Cerrone

I think I like Gaethje via KO, not convinced Cerrone can weather the storm

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I dunno good plus $ against a guy w not much defense lol......great fight to watch-that's for sure

yep looking forward to it!

fight won't go the distance is damn near a slam dunk

[Thrilla]

I don't like this event's poster. Looks so gay

[PaperTrail07]

Good Point lol...cant price that high enough

yep looking forward to it!

fight won't go the distance is damn near a slam dunk

[magpie878]

Now Cerrone claims he feel like shit cutting to lightweight....

[JIBBBY]

^ I don't trust that guy's breakdowns anymore.

Agreed Patrick the writer has been a little shaky this year.

Just take the info. from the write ups not the predictions and keep capping that's what I do. His info on the fighters are still solid with each write up so that's why I post it up.. He still has a winning record this year but off his game.. Not as good as last year..

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 119-75-1

[JIBBBY]

If anyone can find more informative PRELIM write ups please COPY AND PASTE the link or post up!!!

I'm just trying to help provide the basic info on the Event thread prelims on every fight. Don't hate on the messenger ..

[Teem]

Agreed Patrick the writer has been a little shaky this year.

Just take the info. from the write ups not the predictions and keep capping that's what I do. His info on the fighters are still solid with each write up so that's why I post it up.. He still has a winning record this year but off his game.. Not as good as last year..

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 119-75-1

No, that's what I'll do. I appreciate your contribution to these threads. Keep posting what you want. It all helps. Cheers.

[turbozed]

Agreed Patrick the writer has been a little shaky this year.

Just take the info. from the write ups not the predictions and keep capping that's what I do. His info on the fighters are still solid with each write up so that's why I post it up.. He still has a winning record this year but off his game.. Not as good as last year..

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 119-75-1

Actual record is meaningless when there are at least 2-4 huge mismatches per card. Would be more helpful if he did a weighted picks with the odds calculated in. So a +100/2.0 would be worth 1, a +200/3.0 dog would be worth 2, and a -200/1.5 fave would be worth only 0.5.

A lot of these media guys likely get tired of doing the job and mail in their analyses.

[PaperTrail07]

pretty much--their passion is gone lol

Actual record is meaningless when there are at least 2-4 huge mismatches per card. Would be more helpful if he did a weighted picks with the odds calculated in. So a +100/2.0 would be worth 1, a +200/3.0 dog would be worth 2, and a -200/1.5 fave would be worth only 0.5.

A lot of these media guys likely get tired of doing the job and mail in their analyses.

[Baraldsson]

I think I like Gaethje via KO, not convinced Cerrone can weather the storm

Most likely outcome, IMO.

[PaperTrail07]

Vancouver shaping up nicely lol...........now Sanchez out....BOOOO