UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs. Lee (May 18, 2019)

[turbozed]

Picking winners straight is a valuable skill, but it is far less valuable in betting because all fights aren't even money odds. Because we as bettors are more interested in line value since that means profit in the long run, the only real way to measure performance for picking all fights like Stumberg is doing is to take the line and adjust it to ROI for each fight. So getting a -500 fight would only return 0.2u but picking a +500 right would get you 5.0u. If he ends up +ev after all those calculations, then he could call himself a good predictor. It's kinda like being an investor and saying you realized x% of gains. It's really the % over the S&P that matters in terms of performance, since that is the baseline.

But betting is even more complicated than that, since the other big skill in betting is seeing line movement before it happens. Assuming closing lines are more accurate in the long run than openers and mid-week lines, a good way to gauge whether you are really calling these odds correctly, or whether you're just getting lucky, is how often you beat the closing lines, and by how much. It's theoretically possible to only play closing lines and still win, but I don't think I've seen anyone successful doing that. It certainly isn't possible to be a winner over the long run taking worse lines than the closing line.

[bjpenn85]

Picking winners straight is a valuable skill, but it is far less valuable in betting because all fights aren't even money odds. Because we as bettors are more interested in line value since that means profit in the long run, the only real way to measure performance for picking all fights like Stumberg is doing is to take the line and adjust it to ROI for each fight. So getting a -500 fight would only return 0.2u but picking a +500 right would get you 5.0u. If he ends up +ev after all those calculations, then he could call himself a good predictor. It's kinda like being an investor and saying you realized x% of gains. It's really the % over the S&P that matters in terms of performance, since that is the baseline.

But betting is even more complicated than that, since the other big skill in betting is seeing line movement before it happens. Assuming closing lines are more accurate in the long run than openers and mid-week lines, a good way to gauge whether you are really calling these odds correctly, or whether you're just getting lucky, is how often you beat the closing lines, and by how much. It's theoretically possible to only play closing lines and still win, but I don't think I've seen anyone successful doing that. It certainly isn't possible to be a winner over the long run taking worse lines than the closing line.

So for 2019, you can just take the top 3 closing lines at bestfightodds.com, put down 300 dollars on alternative top 1....2.....and 3.

What would be the result? Loss or profit?


Profit with an astonishing 4.000 dollar.


How do i know? Cause i documented every event since 1.jan 2019. But why would anyone take the closing line instead of just being a savage and get a much better line, as you said, on a wednesday? I dont know, i just documented it out of curiosity.

So for 2019, betting public are quite accurate. It basically means that when everyone goes bananas on a line, the likelyhood for that line cashing is VERY....VERY high. A 43% line decrease on Megan Anderson, using the numbers from 2019, means its a done deal. Spencer will get smashed.

And this seems to make sense as market tends to even out soft spots. Its like a cadaver in the junge...it wont take too long before someone finds out they dont have to hunt, its a dead corpus just lying there, its a free dinner.

[JIBBBY]

Part 1 - https://www.mmamania.com/2019/5/16/1...-rochester-mma

Part 2 - write ups -

145 lbs.: Megan Anderson vs. Felicia Spencer

Megan Anderson (8-3) — who brought a four-fight knockout streak and the Invicta Featherweight Title into UFC — stumbled out of the Octagon gate, withdrawing from a planned debut against Cris “Cyborg” and getting thoroughly outwrestled by Holly Holm afterward. She went on the face Cat Zingano at UFC 232, claiming victory in 61 seconds after a head kick inadvertently drove one of Anderson’s toes into Zingano’s eye (details).
She has knocked out five professional opponents and submitted another two.
Felicia Spencer (6-0) has not tasted defeat since losing her amateur debut in 2012, ending her run in the unpaid ranks at 5-1 and picking up a win over Macy Chiasson. “Feenom” has spent her entire professional career in Invicta, where she claimed the Featherweight title with a submission of Pam Sorenson in Nov. 2018.
She will give up six inches of height to her Australian foe.
First things first: Spencer is not a true Featherweight. She entered her last fight at 143.7 pounds and didn’t look particularly lean; she should easily be able to make 135 ... maybe even 125 with proper weight management. That’s an issue against the towering Anderson, who legitimately needs this weight class to be able to compete.
Spencer is, however, a terrific grappler while her two-round gas tank holds up, boasting slick wrestling technique and lovely transitions to the back. Anderson got torched on the mat by Holm, and while she did manage to avoid getting submitted, I’m not sure how much credit I can give her submission defense against someone with zero submission wins. Essentially, Anderson has to either catch Spencer on the way in, which is possible, survive at least a round on the bottom against a legit BJJ black belt, which is less so. Unless Anderson has made massive strides in her wrestling, Spencer muscles her way in for an early takedown and secures the rear naked choke soon after.
Prediction: Spencer via first-round submission
145 lbs.: Mike Trizano vs. Grant Dawson

Mike Trizano (8-0) — Team Stipe Miocic’s first Lightweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27, stopped Thailand Clark and outclassed John Gunther in the house before scraping past Joe Giannetti at the Finale to claim the fabled six-figure contract. “The Lone Wolf” then faced Luis Pena, whom he was supposed to fight in the semifinals, and survived “Violent Bob Ross’s” back control to win a split decision at UFC Fight Night 139.
The Tiger Schulmann-trained product is one inch taller than Dawson, but will give up an inch of reach.
Grant Dawson (13-1) outclassed Adrian Diaz on “Contender Series” to earn himself a contract, but United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) issues kept him out of action for the next 19 months. He ultimately debuted in March with an entertaining decision over TUF veteran Julian Erosa in “The Prophet’s” first trip to the judges.
His nine professional submission victories include seven via (technical) knockout.
Dawson showed against Erosa that he’s still got room for improvement, even if one does attribute his issues to cage rust. Trizano is the sharper striker by far and will be “The Prophet’s” greatest test to date, but even considering all of that, it looks to be a rough evening for the TUF winner. While he came out victorious against Pena and Giannetti, both found success with their grappling, putting Trizano in some bad spots.
He got out of those bad spots, to be fair, but Dawson tends to finish people when given similar opportunities
Unlike Pena and Giannetti, Dawson wastes no time in getting his wrestling going, limiting Trizano’s ability to slow him down with leg kicks. I don’t see him stopping Dawson’s takedowns while the latter is fresh nor surviving his top game. Trizano joins castmate Brad Katona in getting his first L, absorbing ground-and-pound until he leaves his neck open.
Prediction: Dawson via first-round submission
155 lbs.: Des Green vs. Charles Jourdain

Des Green (22-8) debuted in UFC with an upset split decision over Josh Emmett, but struggled to find his footing, losing three of his next four to the likes of Rustam Khabilov, Michel Prazeres and Mairbek Taisumov. “The Predator” came up big with his back against the wall, however, pounding out Ross Pearson in Philadelphia less than two months ago.
“Air” Charles Jourdain (9-1) enjoyed an 8-2 amateur career before debuting in 2016 with a flying knee knockout. T.J. Laramie handed him his sole defeat in his sixth pro fight, but his current four-fight streak the claiming and one defense of the TKO Lightweight title.
Jourdain is one inch shorter than Green and faces a four-inch reach disadvantage.
Jourdain is an entertaining young fighter with a horrific style match up ahead of him. He’s a natural Featherweight with poor takedown defense going up against a stifling wrestler with the chin to weather Jourdain’s punching blitzes. If Josh Emmett and Mairbek Taisumov couldn’t fluster Green, I have my doubts that Jourdain could.
Jourdain admittedly did a better job of scrambling to his feet in his most recent fight, but he’s never faced a takedown threat like “The Predator.” Green’s size and wrestling carry him to a comfortable decision victory.
Prediction: Green via unanimous decision

This Part 1 came out late.. Just posting up now..



205 lbs.: Patrick Cummins vs. Ed Herman

It was more than five years ago that Patrick Cummins (10-6) stepped up on short notice to fight Daniel Cormier and got smoked in just 79 seconds at UFC 170. “Durkin” currently finds himself 2-2 in his last four, including a career-first submission loss to Misha Cirkunov in Oct. 2018.
He has knocked out four professional opponents and submitted another two.
Ed Herman (23-14) made his first UFC appearance in 2006 when he fell to Kendall Grove on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 3 Finale. Now 10-10-1 in 21 Octagon bouts, “Short Fuse” has lost three straight to Nikita Krylov, C.B. Dollaway and Gian Villante.
He has submitted 14 professional opponents, though none since 2012.
Cummins fights always boil down to whether or not he can consistently take down his opponent. If he can, he’s got the heavy top game and ground-and-pound to ruin just about anyone’s night. If he can’t, well, there’s a reason four of his losses are by (technical) knockout.
Luckily for “Durkin,” Herman shouldn’t prove terribly difficult to wrangle. Beyond being undersized for the division and incredibly shopworn to boot, “Short Fuse” got taken down six times by Dollaway. Further, beyond some nice knees in the clinch, he’s nowhere near the knockout threat that Ovince St. Preux, Glover Teixeira, or even Minotouro Nogueira are, so Cummins’ shaky chin shouldn’t prove his downfall this time. Cummins grinds his way to another methodical victory.
Prediction: Cummins via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Danny Roberts vs. Michel Pereira

Danny Roberts (16-4) — coming off of a “Fight of the Night” victory over David Zawada that moved his Octagon record to 5-2 — entered his March bout with Claudio Silva as a slight underdog. After dropping the first two rounds to the Brazilian’s elite grappling, “Hot Chocolate” seemed on the verge of a potential comeback when the referee controversially claimed a verbal submission to an armbar Roberts was in the midst of escaping.
His professional finishes are split 7-5 between knockouts and submissions.
Michel Pereira (22-9) went viral for his acrobatic antics in the ROAD FC cage during his current 6-1 (2 NC) run, which includes five wins by finish. The Brazilian fought seven times in 2018 alone and was last seen scoring a technical knockout finish in an Openweight bout last February.
“Demolidor” is 8-2 (2 NC) overall since a 1-3 skid.
This phrase is horribly overused, but Pereira really does fight like a button-masher. He’s got a dangerous straight right, left body shot, and clinch knee, but he’s happy to unload whatever’s on his mind, be it a Superman punch off the cage or a tornado kick or a backflip guard pass off the cage. It brings to mind Marius Zaromskis, but unlike “The Whitemare,” Pereira doesn’t seem to have a great sense for when to throw his nonsense, resulting in wasted energy and no connection.
Roberts is chinny, true, but far more economical on the feet and boasts enough power to hurt Pereira once the Brazilian’s gas tank starts to empty. Pereira actually got knocked out three fights ago and took another fight two weeks later, which can’t be healthy; luckily, the athletic commission should provide a proper medical suspension after Roberts puts him away.
Prediction: Roberts via third-round technical knockout
185 lbs.: Zak Cummings vs. Trevin Giles

Despite an unsuccessful run on TUF 16, Zak Cummings (22-6) worked his way through the Welterweight ranks with six wins in his first eight Octagon appearances. A split decision to Michel Prazeres sent him back to 185 pounds, where he outlasted fellow grinder Trevor Smith in Milwaukee.
Eleven of his 16 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Trevin Giles (11-0) narrowly edged Ryan Spann in his final pre-UFC bout, then demolished James Bochnovic in his Octagon debut five months later. “The Problem” then proceeded to welcome grappling standout Antonio Braga Neto back to UFC after a lengthy layoff, ultimately breaking the Brazilian down midway through the third.
This will be his first fight since Dec. 2017.
I’m always for fighters competing closer to their natural weight, but a huge part of Cummings’ success at Welterweight was how damn big and strong he was. Though he’s still a dangerous, well-rounded fighter without that edge, it’s hard to see him making too deep a run at Middleweight, especially since he’s not particularly fast and thus lacks the advantage most rising fighters do.
Giles is the more dangerous striker and has solid wrestling of his own, making it unlikely that Cummings takes over with either his submissions or heavy left hand. Cummings is insanely durable, to be fair, but I see Giles’ sprawl and power carrying him to victory as it did against Braga Neto.
Prediction: Giles via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Julio Arce vs. Julian Erosa

Consecutive losses to Brian Kelleher didn’t stop Julio Arce (15-3) from winning five straight on his way to UFC, including a technical knockout of Peter Petties on “Contender Series.” Following victories over Dan Ige and Daniel Teymur, Arce took on striking standout Sheymon Moraes, fighting through hard knockdowns, but ultimately losing a split decision.
He will give up five inches of height and four inches of reach to “Juicy J.”
Julian Erosa (22-7) washed out of UFC after a 1-1 start, but fought his way to a “Contender Series” slot opposite Jamall Emmers and secured his return to the Octagon via second-round head kick. He’s yet to taste victory in his latest run, suffering a knockout loss to Devonte Smith and dropping a decision to Grant Dawson.
Nineteen of his 22 wins have come by stoppage, 10 of them (technical) knockouts.
Fun as Erosa is, he’s nearly 30 fights into his professional career and still hasn’t ironed out the litany of issues keeping him out of contention. He just flat-out doesn’t use his length, which makes for entertaining fights but opens him up to way too much return fire. Arce’s kickboxing is far crisper than Erosa’s and the reach difference isn’t enough to offset that, especially considering the way Erosa prioritizes offense over all else.
Arce’s takedown defense means this will be a striking match as long as he wants it to be and it’s only a matter of time until Erosa’s chin fails him again. Expect an early bonus contender until sometime in the second round.
Prediction: Arce via second-round technical knockout

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Jibby. These four predictions seem much more reasonable

[turbozed]

So for 2019, you can just take the top 3 closing lines at bestfightodds.com, put down 300 dollars on alternative top 1....2.....and 3.

What would be the result? Loss or profit?


Profit with an astonishing 4.000 dollar.


How do i know? Cause i documented every event since 1.jan 2019. But why would anyone take the closing line instead of just being a savage and get a much better line, as you said, on a wednesday? I dont know, i just documented it out of curiosity.

So for 2019, betting public are quite accurate. It basically means that when everyone goes bananas on a line, the likelyhood for that line cashing is VERY....VERY high. A 43% line decrease on Megan Anderson, using the numbers from 2019, means its a done deal. Spencer will get smashed.

And this seems to make sense as market tends to even out soft spots. Its like a cadaver in the junge...it wont take too long before someone finds out they dont have to hunt, its a dead corpus just lying there, its a free dinner.

How are you tracking your performance bj? Are you using a spreadsheet or do you know of any good programs to assess performance?

[JIBBBY]

@Jibby. These four predictions seem much more reasonable

Main card fights, these write ups are ok too... MMAMANIA - This sports writer has a 25-7 record...


Women’s Bantamweight: Aspen Ladd vs. Sijara Eubanks

Best Win for Swanson? Tonya Evinger For Eubanks? Roxanne Modafferi
Current Streak: Ladd is a perfect 7-0 with two of those wins in UFC, while Eubanks comes in following two Octagon victories of her own
X-Factor: Eubanks’ physicality at 135 pounds
How these two match up: Seeing as Ladd already outworked Eubanks in Jan. 2017, I have a small feeling we already know precisely how they match up.
Ladd is a well-rounded and active Bantamweight, one of the division’s best hopes for the future. Inside the Octagon, Ladd has relied largely on her wrestling and aggressive top game to overwhelm opponents, but her stand up game is quite solid as well.
Eubanks, meanwhile, has bounced between Flyweight and Bantamweight for years now. The best success of her career came on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) at 125 pounds, where she won three straight fights to earn a title shot. Unfortunately, two failed weight cuts cost her that title fight and sent her back to Bantamweight for good this time.
“Sarj” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with pretty decent power in her hands.
Last time out, Ladd was the faster woman and picked at Eubanks with long, straight shots. The wrestling exchanges were fairly even, with Eubanks scoring more top position time but failing to do anything of significance. Given the 10-year age difference between the two, it’s tremendously unlikely that Eubanks has grown at a superior rate than Ladd, meaning it’s a rather safe bet that Ladd repeats her performance or does even better.
Prediction: Ladd via decision
Related
Free Fight! Watch dos Anjos KO Henderson In One

---

Middleweight: Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Ian Heinisch

Best Win for Carlos Junior? Tim Boetsch For Heinisch? Cezar Ferreira
Current Streak: An impressive five UFC victories for Carlos Junior, while Heinisch enters this battle having recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: Who wins the wrestling battle?
How these two match up: This is actually a pretty fun match up of underrated Middleweights.
Carlos Junior has earned a step up in competition, as the Brazilian shored up the holes in his gas tank and kickboxing, allowing him to make much better use of his excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. “Shoe Face” has submitted four of his previous five opponents via rear-naked choke.
A former champion in the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) and pickup from Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series,” Heinisch was handed a very difficult debut foe in Cezar Ferreira. Unbothered by the Brazilian’s counter left hand, power double, or dangerous jiu-jitsu, Heinisch outworked his opponent and put him on his back repeatedly on the strength of his own wrestling.
On paper, it may seem that Carlos Junior is a similar opponent to “Mutante” and a similar result may occur. That is true in some respects: both Brazilians have a nasty top game but sometimes lack the wrestling to implement it, and both have struggled in later rounds against scrappy opponents.
There’s a reason Carlos Junior has generally fared better than Ferreira, however. “Care de Sapato” is more aggressive on the feet and more consistent, less likely to get put out by a single big shot or fade at the first sign of a momentum shift. Perhaps most important, Ferreira’s jiu-jitsu is very good, whereas Carlos Junior’s grappling is elite.
Heinisch could pull off another rally in the latter half of the fight, but that’s going to be difficult if Carlos Junior chokes him out in the first.
Prediction: Carlos Junior via submission
Related
Up Next! Dos Anjos Vs Lee In Rochester!

---

Featherweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz 3

Best Win for Oliveira? Jeremy Stephens For Lentz? Will Brooks
Current Streak: Four straight submissions for Oliveira, a pair of wins for Lentz
X-Factor: Oliveira’s insanely dangerous jiu-jitsu
How these two match up: We’ve already seen this fight twice, and I have no idea why we’re doing it a third time.
Though the first bout technically resulted in “No Contest,” both fights follow the same pattern. Lentz — who is an under-appreciated technician on both the mat and feet, a 10-year UFC veteran for good reason — would push forward and bully Oliveira at first, doing some good damage and landing the occasional takedown. Unfortunately for “The Carny,” Oliveira’s low kicks, body kicks, knees, and much bigger frame would tire Lentz and wear down his body, leaving Lentz vulnerable to Oliveira’s record-setting submission game.
In short, it’s a bad match up for Lentz. Worse still, Oliveira is five years younger than Lentz, seemingly hitting his prime at this exact moment. Lentz is still game as hell and will make it a fight, but there’s a very applicable rule in combat sports: when two fighters rematch, the older athlete almost neverwins if the younger fighter won the first contest.
Prediction: Oliveira via submission
Related
UFC on ESPN+ Fight Night - MMAmania.com

---

Lightweight: Davi Ramos vs. Austin Hubbard

Best Win for Ramos? Nick Hein For Hubbard? Killys Mota
Current Streak: Three straight rear naked choke wins for Ramos, a trio of regional wins for Hubbard
X-Factor: Can Hubbard stop the takedown?
How these two match up: Once more, we have a former LFA champion faced with an experienced UFC fighter with excellent jiu-jitsu.
Hubbard seems quite ready for the Octagon. The Elevation Fight Team-trained athlete has excellent conditioning, pushing an exhausting pace on the feet and occasionally looking to wear his opponent out with takedowns as well. Hubbard has fought to the fifth round in four different fights, and generally fighters who hold the LFA title tend to do well once in the UFC.
Unfortunately for him, Ramos is an Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC) gold medalist, the highest achievement available in no-gi jiu-jitsu. In the cage, Ramos makes great use of his jiu-jitsu by finding his way to the back frequently, using excellent athleticism and a great double leg to place his foes on the mat and force them into his world.
Like the Carlos Junior vs. Heinisch fight above, there is a path to victory for the LFA strap-hanger that involves surviving the early portion of the fight and capitalizing when his foe fatigues. However, the strategy of dedicated back-taker can really throw prospects off their game, particularly when the backpack is as talented and athletic as Ramos.
Prediction: Ramos via submission

[Hugo de Naranja]

Will be posting picks right before the event this time so be on the lookout for that.

[bjpenn85]

How are you tracking your performance bj? Are you using a spreadsheet or do you know of any good programs to assess performance?

I actually dont track my performance.

Not other than simple profit event for event.

How do you?

[JIBBBY]

This is how I'm rolling fellas... GL everyone!!

Let's see if I can nail down this event.. Last 2 not so grand for JIBS.. Looking to get back on track.. Hedging a bit with this event and playing it safer as the odds work both ways and allow it..


1) Julio Arce - O2.5 rounds
2) GIles Dec/hedge Zac Sub
3) Herman ITD/Hedged Cummings by Dec
4) Dawson ITD
5) Pereira 1st round finish/ Hedged Roberts 2nd Rnd finish
6) Desmond Green by Dec
7) Ladd by Dec
8) Ramos Sub
9) Oli by Sub
10) Luque by Sub
11) Anderson KO/Hedged Spensor sub
12) Junior by Sub/Hedged Henisch by Dec
13) Lee by Dec/ Hedged Dos Anjos ITD

[boss_of_um]

as predicted boi!!!

Line come back down from that -220 -235 range

UFC on ESPN+ 10 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Blue Cross Arena - Rochester, New York - ESPN+
Sat 5/18		1201 Megan Anderson		-196	o2½ +105
9:30PM		1202 Felicia Spencer		+174	u2½ -125

[Hugo de Naranja]

This is how I'm rolling fellas... GL everyone!!

Let's see if I can nail down this event.. Last 2 not so grand for JIBS.. Looking to get back on track.. Hedging a bit with this event and playing it safer as the odds work both ways and allow it..


1) Julio Arce - O2.5 rounds
2) GIles Dec/hedge Zac Sub
3) Herman ITD/Hedged Cummings by Dec
4) Dawson ITD
5) Pereira 1st round finish/ Hedged Roberts 2nd Rnd finish
6) Desmond Green by Dec
7) Ladd by Dec
8) Ramos Sub
9) Oli by Sub
10) Luque by Sub
11) Anderson KO/Hedged Spensor sub
12) Junior by Sub/Hedged Henisch by Dec
13) Lee by Dec/ Hedged Dos Anjos ITD

Best of luck Jibster.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 10: Lee vs. Dos Anjos Picks:
Julio Arce Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Trevin Giles Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Patrick Cummins Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Mike Trizano Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Danny Roberts Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Des Green Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Aspen Ladd Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Davi Ramos Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Charles Oliveira Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Vicente Luque Round 1 KO (Punches)
Megan Anderson Round 1 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Antonio Carlos Junior Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kevin Lee Round 2 Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 10: Lee vs. Dos Anjos

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Arce vs. Erosa
Arce KO/TKO (+310) 0.5u
Arce Round 2 (+400) 0.25u
Arce Round 3 (+1050) 0.25u

Fight #2: Giles vs. Cummings
Giles (-140) 2.8u to win 2u

Hedge:
Cummings Submission (+615) 0.25u

Fight #3: Cummins vs. Herman
No Bet

Fight #4: Trizano vs. Dawson
Trizano (+135) 1.25u
Trizano Decision (+250) 0.25u

Fight #5: D. Roberts vs. Pereira (DEBUT)
Pereira KO/TKO (+500) 0.25u

Fight #6: D. Green vs. Jourdain (DEBUT)
Parlays

Fight #7: Ladd vs. Eubanks
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #8: D. Ramos vs. Hubbard (DEBUT)
D. Ramos KO/TKO (+1033) 0.25u

Fight #9: C. Oliveira vs. Lentz
C. Oliveira+Lentz WGD (-230) 1u to win 0.43u

Fight #10: Luque vs. Krantz
Luque Submission (+350) 0.5u

Fight #11: M. Anderson vs. Spencer (DEBUT)
M. Anderson (-147) 2u to win 1.36u
M. Anderson ITD (+218) 0.5u

Fight #12: Carlos Junior vs. Heinisch
Carlos Junior (-195) 3.9u to win 2u
Carlos Junior Round 1 (+275) 0.5u

Hedge(s):
Heinisch ITD (+472) 0.25u
Heinisch Round 3 (+1475) 0.25u

Fight #13: K. Lee vs. Dos Anjos
K. Lee ITD (+364) 0.5u
K. Lee Submission (+725) 0.5u

Straight Parlays:
None

Prop Parlays:
C. Oliveira ITD/Luque+Krantz WGD (-104) 1.04u to win 1u
D. Ramos ITD/Luque -3.5 (-102) 1.5u to win 1.47u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+369) 0.5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1005) 0.25u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2925) 0.25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
D. Green/Yan (-134) 4.03u to win 3u
Barcelos/Carlos Junior (-111) 1.11u to win 1u
C. Oliveira+Lentz WGD/Gustafsson (+103) 2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for the BPs Spur!

[dvb02]

anyone have a good link?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Perfect outcome there. Cashed Arce KO/TKO (+310) and Arce Round 3 (+1050)

[Thrilla]

Bad blood under formula play maybe between Roberts D. - Pereira M.

total set at 1.5 and under pays +140. Wish it was 2.5. I'll poke at it.

[spurginobili]

Thanks for the BPs Spur!

Sure thing man. We all appreciate you posting your picks

Nice hit - Arce Round 3 (+1050) 0.25u

Took a shot with Arosa @ those odds. If he could only use his length to his advantage. Those long looping hooks won't cut it. lol

[boss_of_um]

561524242-1	5/18/19 5:06pm	$25.00	$262.50	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/18/19 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2225 Arce wins in round 3 +1050* vs Any other result

I nice line to start a parlay! Thanks Hugo!

And some other hits from that Huge 3rd Round Head Kick KO

$30.00	$83.73	Open	3 Team Parlay
				Win	5/18/19 3:00pm Colombia Soccer 2201 Draw (Millonarios (COL) vs Deportivo Pasto (COL)) +178* vs Millonarios (COL)
	5/18/19 5:08pm			Pending	5/18/19 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2242 Arce points handicap -3½ -275* vs Erosa points handicap

$30.00	$120.12	Open	3 Team Parlay
				Win	5/18/19 2:30pm Argentina Soccer 1217 Draw (San Miguel (ARG-B Metro) vs Tristan Suarez (ARG-B Metro)) +175* vs San Miguel (ARG-B Metro)
	5/18/19 5:05pm			Pending	5/18/19 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2209 Arce wins inside distance -122* vs Not Arce inside distance

[Thrilla]

Is tapology.com having gay sex on your computer as well?

[dvb02]

Link????

[Thrilla]

Link????

http://ripple.is/mma/10698-ufc-fight-night-dos-anjos-vs-lee-live-stream-watch-online-tv-channel-time

[dvb02]

http://ripple.is/mma/10698-ufc-fight...v-channel-time

Thanks Thrilla!!!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

At least hit the hedge on Cummings Submission. Solid back and forth fight

[spurginobili]

Damn...that sucks

Cummings was likely to win the dec with that knockdown anyway

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice hits on Arce Round 3 Spurs and Boss

[spurginobili]

Took 'Short Fuse' here

[JIBBBY]

Missed the over 2.5 in the first fight for a benny just barely ..

This next fight though was golden!! This hedge paid off.. GOOD START FOR NOW ...


One good prop hit to start is nice!!! Need a few more of these now..

$100.00

$615.00

Win

5/18/19 5:15pm MMA Props Fighting 2127 Cummings wins by submission +615* vs Any other result

Hedge

$100.00

$179.00

Loss

5/18/19 5:15pm MMA Props Fighting 2111 Giles wins by 3 round decision +179* vs Not Giles by 3 round decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
D. Roberts+Pereira Won’t Start Round 3 (-135) 1.35u to win 1u
C. Oliveira+Lentz WGD/D. Roberts+Pereira WGD (-103) 1.03u to win 1u
Ladd KO/TKO (+306) 0.5u
Pereira KO/TKO (+500) 0.25u
Lentz Submission (+1250) 0.25u
C. Oliveira+Lentz Draw (+9000) 0.1u

Added Parlay:
Cummins/Trizano/D. Roberts/Ladd/C. Oliveira/M. Anderson/K. Lee (+2163) 0.5u

[boss_of_um]

I must be buzzing really good right now. I didn't realize Cummings and Cummins were fighting back to back. Thought I lost last fight when it didn't go to decision. Come on Cummins !

[JIBBBY]

Herman ITD hedged Cummings by Dec next..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Missed the over 2.5 in the first fight for a benny just barely ..

This next fight though was golden!! This hedge paid off.. GOOD START FOR NOW ...


One good prop hit to start is nice!!! Need a few more of these now..

$100.00

$615.00

Win

5/18/19 5:15pm MMA Props Fighting 2127 Cummings wins by submission +615* vs Any other result

Hedge

$100.00

$179.00

Loss

5/18/19 5:15pm MMA Props Fighting 2111 Giles wins by 3 round decision +179* vs Not Giles by 3 round decision

Big hit on Cummings Submission! Nice job Jibs!

[Thrilla]

Red Herman

[JIBBBY]

Herman ITD hedged Cummings by Dec next..

Starbuck boy could never take a punch.. SHORT FUSE!!!

$100.00

$365.00

Pending

5/18/19 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2005 Herman wins inside distance +365* vs Not Herman inside distance

[Hugo de Naranja]

Starbuck boy could never take a punch.. SHORT FUSE!!!

$100.00

$365.00

Pending

5/18/19 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2005 Herman wins inside distance +365* vs Not Herman inside distance

Another nice hit for Jibster.