[TheCalculator]

Just sharing what I see. My "filter" comes from years of experience in health and fitness.

I'm looking for 2 things:

OVER-dehydrating. Few things WRECK THE BODY like over dehydrating. Tons of studies done on the topic. Major strength drop, endurance fades among other things. Even 1% dehydration is detrimental to strength. These guys are cutting 3%+++ of their water weight. And most can't rehydrate on a cellular level in time for the fight.

Sickness/overtrained state/blown out. Most guys over-train severely coming into the fight. The smart ones taper off, so their bodies ramp up and peak for the event.

FADES:

1. Cole Miller.

Looked seriously spaced out. Drained. Too dehydrated. Loss of muscle mass. His weight cut was hell. No doubt about it.

2. Lyoto Machida

First -- I'm disappointed. I was going to play him BIG. The first sign was the BIG RINGS under his eyes. This usually means the kidneys are working over time. Normal with drug users (ask Gabe ). Can be normal when the body is detoxing/sick.

Second -- 201? No reason on Earth why he would cut an extra 4 lbs. This means he UNWILLINGLY lost an extra 4 lbs. Most likely he overtrained and caught something. Quite common.

LEANS

1. Mauricio Rua

He's leaner than usual. This means he was motivated during camp. He was happy. Looked energetic.

2. Ryan Bader

Jesus -- his abs looked sick. Very rare to see the bottom abs cut like that. He's in the best shape he's ever been for a fight.

I still think Lyoto will win. However -- his state put enough doubt that I don't see value anymore.

These are just things you can use to adjust your views. Or you can fade me.

I'm adding Swick to the fade list:

[PunisherIND]

thanks for the health and wellness perspective calc.

[gabe]

Yeah, I listened to you and faded Tito vs Lil Nog... even though Lil' Nog was the big fav.

[Beelzebubzy]

Why are his toe nails black?

[Crassus]

FADES:

2. Lyoto Machida

First -- I'm disappointed. I was going to play him BIG. The first sign was the BIG RINGS under his eyes. This usually means the kidneys are working over time. Normal with drug users (ask Gabe ). Can be normal when the body is detoxing/sick.

Second -- 201? No reason on Earth why he would cut an extra 4 lbs. This means he UNWILLINGLY lost an extra 4 lbs. Most likely he overtrained and caught something. Quite common.

LEANS

2. Ryan Bader

Jesus -- his abs looked sick. Very rare to see the bottom abs cut like that. He's in the best tape he's ever been for a fight.

I still think Lyoto will win. However -- his state put enough doubt that I don't see value anymore.

I agree that Lyoto looked weird at the weigh-in, little disconcerted by it.

No homo though

[TheCalculator]

No homo though

If pointing out a 6 pack is homo... Then color me queer.

[Crassus]

If pointing out a 6 pack is homo... Then color me queer.

I think it was more the "jesus his abs looked sick" no offense meant or nothin.

[TheCalculator]

I think it was more the "jesus his abs looked sick" no offense meant or nothin.

No offense taken. Almost impossible to offend me on a forum.

[Crassus]

No offense taken. Almost impossible to offend me on a forum.

Solid. Also, Machida apparently weighed in at 201 in the first fight vs Shogun, think he looked particularly different in that weigh-in in comparison?

[TheCalculator]

Solid. Also, Machida apparently weighed in at 201 in the first fight vs Shogun, think he looked particularly different in that weigh-in in comparison?

The circles around the eyes worry me as well. Unless he didn't sleep last night -- it's not a good sign. And if he didn't sleep last night -- that's not a good sign either.

[TheCalculator]

I'm still going to bet on Machida. However -- probably about 25% of what I wanted to bet.

[DeFactoCrippler]

[DirtyX]

I'm not betting on it, but I see Value in Bader at +275. After watching the weigh ins and reading what Calculator said about his eyes, it really makes me want to put a small play on him. That line is the best value play on the card, imo.

[gabe]

I'm not betting on it, but I see Value in Bader at +275. After watching the weigh ins and reading what Calculator said about his eyes, it really makes me want to put a small play on him. That line is the best value play on the card, imo.

lol no it's not-- machida fought sick against jon jones and won the first round, i think he'll handle bader for at least 2 rounds, no matter what.

[GunShard]

Interesting health factors.

[gabe]

Machida used to weigh in at 201, then bulked up and started weighing in at 205. He was 16-0 before, 1-3 since bulking up. I believe he has intentionally leaned down.

His eyes didn't look bad to me.

[jizay]

Lyoto seemed fine to me. Reading into things too much.

[El Nino]

Why are his toe nails black?

A lot of muay thai guys and mma guys paint their toe nails. A little extra protection for the toe nails against fungal infection, staph, etc. lots of bacteria and disease on the bags and pads. At least that's the excuse I've heard...maybe they just want to feel pretty.

[El Nino]

Geez didn't realize Nam Phan was so frickin' short. Literally comes up to Miller's shoulders. What does everyone see in him this fight? I saw a few guys on him. Is Miller that bad? I remember Phan looking horrendous in his last fight.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Something was definitely different about Lyoto's eyes...

[gabe]

Something was definitely different about Lyoto's eyes...

l to the mfao

[TheCalculator]

Something was definitely different about Lyoto's eyes...

Almost choked on food!! Even my wife laughed!

[NunyaBidness]

Geez didn't realize Nam Phan was so frickin' short. Literally comes up to Miller's shoulders. What does everyone see in him this fight? I saw a few guys on him. Is Miller that bad? I remember Phan looking horrendous in his last fight.

I think the question is, did Miller lose his last fight because Siler is that good, or because he can't hang at the new weight class.

[Vitooch]

I think the question is, did Miller lose his last fight because Siler is that good, or because he can't hang at the new weight class.

'
A little of both

[gabe]

'
A little of both

yup

[El Nino]

Gotcha, haven't seen any of Miller's or Siller's fights. Just remember Phan was favored in his last fight and pretty much was dominated.

[Mercersux]

Gotcha, haven't seen any of Miller's or Siller's fights. Just remember Phan was favored in his last fight and pretty much was dominated.

Yeah but that was against Hettes. Guy is pretty slick grappler. made Phan look dumb. Neither Phan or Miller have really impressed of late so kind of see that fight going either way. Maybe slight lean on Miller if he gets his weight cut Sh*t in order.

[Vaughany]

Why are his toe nails black?

Fighters do tht dont they...Leben always has his black aswell...I think it's to do with being ironic...yes I have painted my nails but I still can kick your ass!

[Vaughany]

Or jus because it helps cover up shitty toes and protect the nail better!

[Vaughany]

Something was definitely different about Lyoto's eyes...

haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Sato]

Geez didn't realize Nam Phan was so frickin' short. Literally comes up to Miller's shoulders. What does everyone see in him this fight? I saw a few guys on him. Is Miller that bad? I remember Phan looking horrendous in his last fight.

Miller looked HORRENDOUS at the weigh ins. His cut was the epitome of hell.

[Nick Papageorgio]

just spoke with my high school health teacher, he agrees.

[Crassus]

just spoke with my high school health teacher, he agrees.

I thought we weren't good enough cappers to deserve your presence there bud...

[Nick Papageorgio]

Though i would help out a bet, Professor Hallack agrees with OP.

[Crassus]

Though i would help out a bet, Professor Hallack agrees with OP.

Ugh.