[DirtyX]

Gentlemen,

I am seriously contemplating going against the rules of bankroll management, and everything I have learned by betting the house on Bendo. By the house, I mean about 75% of my bankroll or $2500.00. I honestly think Benson is about as close to a sure thing against Edgar as it gets. I just wanted some insight on if you guys think Edgar has a legit chance here, and why. I know anything can happen; cuts, DQ, or even Edgar winning by being the better man. I am just trying to make a big move, and I think this is the fight to do it. Always appreciate your thoughts, thanks.

[Rubber Guard]

Um, the last fight was pretty close.


So, um, no?

[TheCalculator]

I like the play but I certainly can't ethically give you a thumbs up on betting 75% of your bankroll on any fight. Least of all this one.

[Grabaka]

I love the play but i cant like that percentage unless you do it at betfred where Bendo is -125.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Only if you parlay it with Ebersole and Lombard. 100% of my bankroll on those guys in parlays.

[Crassus]

Gentlemen,

I am seriously contemplating going against the rules of bankroll management, and everything I have learned by betting the house on Bendo. By the house, I mean about 75% of my bankroll or $2500.00. I honestly think Benson is about as close to a sure thing against Edgar as it gets. I just wanted some insight on if you guys think Edgar has a legit chance here, and why. I know anything can happen; cuts, DQ, or even Edgar winning by being the better man. I am just trying to make a big move, and I think this is the fight to do it. Always appreciate your thoughts, thanks.

Bad bad idea.

[Beelzebubzy]

You think bendo wins 85% of the time? If my calc is right nunya will correct my err

[DirtyX]

Um, for the odds offered on this fight currently, (-165ish) I think it's a great bet. I cap Bendo at -250/-300 range. I also don't think the first fight was close at all. Bendo handled Edgar. Edgar really had nothing for Henderson, and Bendo was never in any danger in that fight. He had control the whole time. Bendo is far larger, and better in every aspect of MMA imo. I prob. won't end up going that big, but I will be putting a nice size wager down regardless of if Bendo is at -160 or -250.

[illmatick]

Fight was close imo

I scored it...

10-10
10-9 Henderson
10-9 Edgar
10-9 Henderson
10-10

If I had to score the first and 5th for someone, I'd probably give Edgar round 1 and Henderson round 5.

[Jaymun]

Just because of both guys styles I think this is one of those fights where a 0.5u flier on Draw isn't a terrible play

[Vaughany]

I love the play but i cant like that percentage unless you do it at betfred where Bendo is -125.

Yeah I've got about 300 on Bendo at -125. Wouldnt take him at worse than -130 or something.

[Vaughany]

Gentlemen,

I am seriously contemplating going against the rules of bankroll management, and everything I have learned by betting the house on Bendo. By the house, I mean about 75% of my bankroll or $2500.00. I honestly think Benson is about as close to a sure thing against Edgar as it gets. I just wanted some insight on if you guys think Edgar has a legit chance here, and why. I know anything can happen; cuts, DQ, or even Edgar winning by being the better man. I am just trying to make a big move, and I think this is the fight to do it. Always appreciate your thoughts, thanks.

My main concern with doing this would be the fact tht Edgar is extremely difficult to finish so you are basically relying on Henderson doing enough in 5 rounds to guarantee the decision win, but with the state of MMA judging Im not sure I'd be willing to dice with their ineptness

[NunyaBidness]

You think bendo wins 85% of the time? If my calc is right nunya will correct my err

Closer to 95% if we're betting full kelly.

[NunyaBidness]

Technically making a bet of that size is incorrect, especially at the numbers you're estimating (-250 to -300), if you said you thought he should be -1000, then sure, its proper bet sizing, but I think everyone here would agree that you're overestimating your edge.

The real question to ask is what does your bankroll mean to you? Will you be emotionally devastated if you lose? Will increasing your bankroll by 50% give you opportunities you wouldn't have had otherwise? Is your bankroll easily replaceable?

The larger the bet we're considering, the less kelly matters and the more we should look to utility.

Sometimes its correct to give up edge in order to make sure you're still in the game for the next bet or series of bets. Sklansky makes an example of passing on a coin flip today with an edge of 10%, if losing makes it so you cannot make a coin flip tomorrow with a 30% edge. This situation could be analogous.

[AdamB]

In the last fight, they seemed basically equal everywhere except for power, where I think Bendo has a sizable advantage, especially in the way that he throws his kicks. It will probably come down to a striking match with a miniscule amount of grappling once again - in a 5 round fight it seems inevitable that Edgar gets tagged hard at least once. With these things in mind, the edge surely has to be with Bendo - assuming their volume of striking is fairly similar, the guy who's throwing heavier shots (even if we're talking about checked leg kicks or blocked headkicks) is going to look better in the judges eyes.

I think in a lot of Frankie's past fights, people have made the mistake of covering up then trying to counter - allowing him to land a combination and use his in and out movement to get out of danger. It looked like Bendo has worked on his counters heavily, and he was doing a good job of moving just out of range and landing them. In the later rounds, Frankie looked as hesitant to strike as I have ever seen him.

In regards to cuts/DQs, I don't see Edgar winning by either of these. He got hit with two hard nut shots in the last fight and went on, he's extremely tough and is unlikely to give up from an illegal blow. He also doesn't throw a large quantity of knees or elbows at all, so if he cuts Bendo I can really only see it being from a headbutt - could happen from his head movement on the inside, but I imagine the chance of this happening to be pretty low. If anyone wins by a cut I'd expect it to be Bendo.

I'd say if you can catch those -125 odds (about 55% probability) then I think you have a fairly nice edge. For me, a conservative estimation is that Bendo wins 65% of the time. In regards to BRM I'm still not super knowledgeable about it so I would generally never take that kind of a risk right now, but that's me.

I may be way off in how I've capped the fight, so I'd be interested to hear how other people see it. I agree that if you even think about doing this, I'd get onto BetFred. Everywhere else I see seems to have Henderson at around -160, and for me probability-wise that's much closer to being accurate.

[DirtyX]

In the last fight, they seemed basically equal everywhere except for power, where I think Bendo has a sizable advantage, especially in the way that he throws his kicks. It will probably come down to a striking match with a miniscule amount of grappling once again - in a 5 round fight it seems inevitable that Edgar gets tagged hard at least once. With these things in mind, the edge surely has to be with Bendo - assuming their volume of striking is fairly similar, the guy who's throwing heavier shots (even if we're talking about checked leg kicks or blocked headkicks) is going to look better in the judges eyes.

I think in a lot of Frankie's past fights, people have made the mistake of covering up then trying to counter - allowing him to land a combination and use his in and out movement to get out of danger. It looked like Bendo has worked on his counters heavily, and he was doing a good job of moving just out of range and landing them. In the later rounds, Frankie looked as hesitant to strike as I have ever seen him.

In regards to cuts/DQs, I don't see Edgar winning by either of these. He got hit with two hard nut shots in the last fight and went on, he's extremely tough and is unlikely to give up from an illegal blow. He also doesn't throw a large quantity of knees or elbows at all, so if he cuts Bendo I can really only see it being from a headbutt - could happen from his head movement on the inside, but I imagine the chance of this happening to be pretty low. If anyone wins by a cut I'd expect it to be Bendo.

I'd say if you can catch those -125 odds (about 55% probability) then I think you have a fairly nice edge. For me, a conservative estimation is that Bendo wins 65% of the time. In regards to BRM I'm still not super knowledgeable about it so I would generally never take that kind of a risk right now, but that's me.

I may be way off in how I've capped the fight, so I'd be interested to hear how other people see it. I agree that if you even think about doing this, I'd get onto BetFred. Everywhere else I see seems to have Henderson at around -160, and for me probability-wise that's much closer to being accurate.

Thanks for your feedback man.

[DublinMeUp]

Sklansky makes an example of passing on a coin flip today with an edge of 10%, if losing makes it so you cannot make a coin flip tomorrow with a 30% edge.

Sklansky would never pass on some Sklansky bucks!

[DublinMeUp]

Just to add something to the actual thread topic. I agree that Benson should win, I don't agree that this is a big bet fight. I have him at the end of a 3 team parlay and that's all the action I'll give him.

[The Fobfather]

Technically making a bet of that size is incorrect, especially at the numbers you're estimating (-250 to -300), if you said you thought he should be -1000, then sure, its proper bet sizing, but I think everyone here would agree that you're overestimating your edge.

The real question to ask is what does your bankroll mean to you? Will you be emotionally devastated if you lose? Will increasing your bankroll by 50% give you opportunities you wouldn't have had otherwise? Is your bankroll easily replaceable?

The larger the bet we're considering, the less kelly matters and the more we should look to utility.

Sometimes its correct to give up edge in order to make sure you're still in the game for the next bet or series of bets. Sklansky makes an example of passing on a coin flip today with an edge of 10%, if losing makes it so you cannot make a coin flip tomorrow with a 30% edge. This situation could be analogous.

Nunya with the reference to poker theory!

[NunyaBidness]

Sklansky would never pass on some Sklansky bucks!

But he does! Refer to Tournament poker for advanced players.

[DublinMeUp]

But he does! Refer to Tournament poker for advanced players.

I know, hence the emoticon. I was only messing with you.

Although I doubt you'll get him to back this concept in a cash game. It only works in tournaments due to having a finite stack. I think a cash game is a closer representation to mma betting than a tournament setting.

Anyways, pls don't bet 75% of your bank on it dirtyx.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Just to play devil's advocate I will list some of the reasons you SHOULD make this bet

1. You only live once.

2. No pain no gain.

3. Win or lose you will be pumping money into a third world country that desperately needs it. We're all job creators on this forum, brah.Doing our duty to the less fortunate citizens of the world. That's why I bet MMA.

[Vaughany]

hahah

[NunyaBidness]

I know, hence the emoticon. I was only messing with you.

Although I doubt you'll get him to back this concept in a cash game. It only works in tournaments due to having a finite stack. I think a cash game is a closer representation to mma betting than a tournament setting.

Well, yes and no about the cash games. You should never get yourself into these situations into a cash game, as you should never be buying with more than 1-2% of your bankroll anyway.

If you somehow found yourself in a cashgame in a spot where you're getting a small edge for your liferoll, Sklansky would definitely argue that you should pass up the opportunity and that you made a mistake being in that spot in the first place.

[NunyaBidness]

I know, hence the emoticon. I was only messing with you.

Oh, and yes, I knew that. . . I only have halfsbergers.

I love the concept of Sklansky bucks, and would've referenced it on here earlier, but didn't think anyone would get it. In posted picks I'm up about 10,000 Sklansky bucks, but stuck about the same in real money. Unfortunately my bank doesn't accept them.

[Vaughany]

How many Sklansky bucks made from that Natal play?!

[Beelzebubzy]

There are approximately 600 islands for sale right now. Yes some have heliports
just in case sklansky bucks can be used there.
Wonder if nunya will by Greece with sklansky pesos?

[Beelzebubzy]

I spelt buy wrong. I have dumb ass burgersz

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Incredibly wild, risky move.

I limit my plays to risking <10% of my bankroll or a specific outcome in a fight not happening at a 15% loss (I.e. Frank Mir winning by decision vs JDS).

75% is just asking to get wiped out. If it doesn't happen at UFC 153 it'll happen soon enough with that hyperaggressive strategy.

I like you DirtyX; I wouldn't want to see you get gutted by a Frankie upset. FWIW, the first fight was very close by strict unified MMA scoring (definite argument could be made that Frankie won rounds 1, 3 & 5). The damage wasn't even close but, of course, damage isn't a true method of scoring which is part of how Frankie is so good at winning rounds yet getting his ass kicked by his opponent. Also, that upkick was a fortunate event which drastically turned the tide of the fight (Frankie was winning round 2 as well up until then and then his conditioning/aggressiveness wained). Who knows how the fight would've turned out if Frankie wasn't caught by that upkick. Good luck with your Bendo play but I would try not to get too crazy in this spot.

[DublinMeUp]

Well, yes and no about the cash games. You should never get yourself into these situations into a cash game, as you should never be buying with more than 1-2% of your bankroll anyway.

If you somehow found yourself in a cashgame in a spot where you're getting a small edge for your liferoll, Sklansky would definitely argue that you should pass up the opportunity and that you made a mistake being in that spot in the first place.

Basically what i said, tournament = finite, cash = infinite (or a real world rebuy amount).. we'll assume anyone who knows/understands Sklansky or basic BRM would not make the error described therefore would not be in a position to compound that error further.

So in essence Slansky would advise not to buy in to a cash game with 100% of your role, If you make the mistake of proceeding against this advice then any and all actions thereafter are also mistakes.

[DirtyX]

Incredibly wild, risky move.

I limit my plays to risking <10% of my bankroll or a specific outcome in a fight not happening at a 15% loss (I.e. Frank Mir winning by decision vs JDS).

75% is just asking to get wiped out. If it doesn't happen at UFC 153 it'll happen soon enough with that hyperaggressive strategy.

I like you DirtyX; I wouldn't want to see you get gutted by a Frankie upset. FWIW, the first fight was very close by strict unified MMA scoring (definite argument could be made that Frankie won rounds 1, 3 & 5). The damage wasn't even close but, of course, damage isn't a true method of scoring which is part of how Frankie is so good at winning rounds yet getting his ass kicked by his opponent. Also, that upkick was a fortunate event which drastically turned the tide of the fight (Frankie was winning round 2 as well up until then and then his conditioning/aggressiveness wained). Who knows how the fight would've turned out if Frankie wasn't caught by that upkick. Good luck with your Bendo play but I would try not to get too crazy in this spot.

Ya man, to be honest I made this thread so you guys could talk my dumbass out of this huge play. I will be playing Bendo regardless, assuming he doesn't get above -200/-220 range. However, I don't think I can bring myself to lay down everything that I have worked for on one fight. I usually only bet 10%-20% of my BankRoll on any given fight, at the most. That is still prob. too much according to what most of the Professionals say. I still think Bendo is a great play, especially at the -160 range. I think Edgar loses this fight and drops to the 145 lbs divsion, where I think he would be much better suited. Frankie is small for a LW imo. Again, thanks for your insight.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Hey Dirtyx, no matter what happens you can still take two positives out of this thread.

1. Wannabet likes you.

2. Wannabet actually cared enough to take time out of his busy day separating conjoined twins on the operating table in order to come in here are reiterate every that was already said. But when Wannabet says it, you can imagine it being recited by a lispy kid in a gimp mask, which of course lends much more credibility to what is being said.

[DirtyX]

Hey Dirtyx, no matter what happens you can still take two positives out of this thread.

1. Wannabet likes you.

2. Wannabet actually cared enough to take time out of his busy day separating conjoined twins on the operating table in order to come in here are reiterate every that was already said. But when Wannabet says it, you can imagine it being recited by a lispy kid in a gimp mask, which of course lends much more credibility to what is being said.

Dude, I have to admit, you have the best banter and antics on this website. DeFacto makes me laugh daily on here. Your shit talking skills are second to none, especially when cousin Gabe is involved. Props.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I'm curious as to how all these "wars" will affect Edgar? You ask most boxers and they will tell you that after brutal fights you are never the same. And it's not like he was taking the punches well at 155 in the first place.

[PunisherIND]

I'm curious as to how all these "wars" will affect Edgar? You ask most boxers and they will tell you that after brutal fights you are never the same. And it's not like he was taking the punches well at 155 in the first place.

this is a good point, and its my only concern with the shogun fight. i.e., the effect of his last two brutal matches.