[fosho14]

What is the likelihood of Lombard of finishing Boetsch?

I give it a 75% chance.

[TheCalculator]

I'll be shocked if this fight goes the distance. Tim will be looking to finish also.

[fosho14]

Ya dude, Lombard ITD is looking like a great play right now

[NunyaBidness]

What is the likelihood of Lombard of finishing Boetsch?

I give it a 75% chance.

So you think Lombard finishes Boetsch 100% of the times that he wins? Or you think the line is that mispriced?

[GunShard]

From the fight footage I seen on both fighters. Lombard has a very high chance of winning.

[gabe]

i think lombard should be -600

[Vaughany]

i think lombard should be -600

Wowza, you'll be going big on him then at -310 or whatever he is? Based on Kelly you should be betting about 40% of your bankroll on him (based on bankroll being $1000)

[gabe]

Wowza, you'll be going big on him then at -310 or whatever he is? Based on Kelly you should be betting about 40% of your bankroll on him (based on bankroll being $1000)

I don't bet based on Kelly, I bet based on Jesse Spano.

But yeah, I'll have him parlayed with pretty much everyone lol I might do a write-up if ppl want 1

[Bradbatross]

I'm going to have Lombard and Ebersole in every one of my parlays.

[gabe]

I'm going to have Lombard and Ebersole in every one of my parlays.

+ jordan

[Bradbatross]

+ jordan

I might end up putting Jordan in one of my parlays. I kinda just want to play it safe this event and build up some cash. Kongo has been rocked and come back to win too many times for me to feel good betting on that fight.

[Vaughany]

I don't bet based on Kelly, I bet based on Jesse Spano.

But yeah, I'll have him parlayed with pretty much everyone lol I might do a write-up if ppl want 1

As Cam Gigandet famously said in Never Back Down... "You gotta give the people what they want"!

[AdamB]

Fight ends by KO @ Evens on PaddyPower - probably going to get on that alongside Lombard by KO or maybe to be safe Lombard ITD, though I feel like a submission is significantly less likely.

[Vaughany]

Fight ends by KO @ Evens on PaddyPower - probably going to get on that alongside Lombard by KO or maybe to be safe Lombard ITD, though I feel like a submission is significantly less likely.

yeah Id go for tht if my limit was £3.09!

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I don't bet based on Kelly, I bet based on Jesse Spano.

Nice one

[PunisherIND]

What is the likelihood of Lombard of finishing Boetsch?

I give it a 75% chance.

careful. lombard didnt have the easiest time KO'ing falaniko vitale. i was at that event live, and i remember lombard did not look impressive. fight was very close going into the third. He was -700 in that fight.

again, this is falaniko vitale i'm talking about.

[GunShard]

It would be safe to bet Lombard to win the fight.
I wouldn't bet on Lombard to finish in the distance unless you want more risk for more value.

[Beelzebubzy]

So you think Lombard finishes Boetsch 100% of the times that he wins? Or you think the line is that mispriced?

60% of the time it works all the Time

[Kaladarus]

I'd rather play this straight up. Props not up at enough books yet. I'm thinking Lombard by decision may have a lot more value or maybe Lombard by the spread 5dimes puts up since most of us can't get those crazy props Vaughany gets.

I rarely take ITD props. I find that in these types of fights there is usually not much value unless you can catch a good opener.

[Vaughany]

I'd rather play this straight up. Props not up at enough books yet. I'm thinking Lombard by decision may have a lot more value or maybe Lombard by the spread 5dimes puts up since most of us can't get those crazy props Vaughany gets.

I rarely take ITD props. I find that in these types of fights there is usually not much value unless you can catch a good opener.

Dont get those crazy props anywhere now...paddy and skybet are pretty close to 5dimes nowadays

[fosho14]

careful. lombard didnt have the easiest time KO'ing falaniko vitale. i was at that event live, and i remember lombard did not look impressive. fight was very close going into the third. He was -700 in that fight.

again, this is falaniko vitale i'm talking about.

Interesting point, but it doesn't change my stance here.

Styles make fights, and Anderson of all people couldn't even KO Maia or Leites. Boetsche is the perfect opponent stylistically to get blasted by Lombard. He stands right in front of guys with his sloppy technique and god only knows how he's made it this far. Actually I know how he's made it this far, it has mainly been a combination of him fighting weak opposition and pulling out W's through grit, and tenacity more than actual skill. Sorry Boetsche, not this time...You are utterly outmatched in this fight, and Lombard isn't going to lose to you by being outmuscled like a rag doll the way Grove was.

I guess we'll find out on Saturday.

[PunisherIND]

Interesting point, but it doesn't change my stance here.

Styles make fights, and Anderson of all people couldn't even KO Maia or Leites. Boetsche is the perfect opponent stylistically to get blasted by Lombard. He stands right in front of guys with his sloppy technique and god only knows how he's made it this far. Actually I know how he's made it this far, it has mainly been a combination of him fighting weak opposition and pulling out W's through grit, and tenacity more than actual skill. Sorry Boetsche, not this time...You are utterly outmatched in this fight, and Lombard isn't going to lose to you by being outmuscled like a rag doll the way Grove was.

I guess we'll find out on Saturday.

yup. its always interesting when a regional can crusher steps up to the big leagues. and i wouldnt be surprised if lombard straight laces boetsch up in round 1, but i just cant that fight against falaniko out of my head. not to mention the clear lack of quality opponents.

[gabe]

Interesting point, but it doesn't change my stance here.

Styles make fights, and Anderson of all people couldn't even KO Maia or Leites. Boetsche is the perfect opponent stylistically to get blasted by Lombard. He stands right in front of guys with his sloppy technique and god only knows how he's made it this far. Actually I know how he's made it this far, it has mainly been a combination of him fighting weak opposition and pulling out W's through grit, and tenacity more than actual skill. Sorry Boetsche, not this time...You are utterly outmatched in this fight, and Lombard isn't going to lose to you by being outmuscled like a rag doll the way Grove was.

I guess we'll find out on Saturday.

Are you serious? Anderson could have KO'd Maia in the first round. He cruised his way to a decision. Probably had money on himself by decision or fight goes the distance lol- He had several opportunities to swarm Maia and finish him.

[fosho14]

Are you serious? Anderson could have KO'd Maia in the first round. He cruised his way to a decision. Probably had money on himself by decision or fight goes the distance lol- He had several opportunities to swarm Maia and finish him.

I agree that silva didn't look like himself in those 2 fights. Maybe a better way of wording my idea, would have been to say that ALL fighters have some off performances, and your not going to find any one fighter who has had a flawless career, especially at this point in time. My post was more directed to punisher. Even if lombard didn't look impressive against falaniko vitale he still got the knockout and he has looked extremely impressive against the vast majority of everyone else granted most of them are cans. Still big on lombard against boetsch.

[Thor4140]

What is the likelihood of Lombard of finishing Boetsch?

I give it a 75% chance.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...21-2012-a.html

[JerseyRobby]

Wait until the oddscome out for Lombard wins in round 1. Lombard gasses and if Boetsch can weather his early explosive barrage he should be able to go through the three rounds of punishment. Watch the Okami fight and you will see Boetsch can take a good amount of punishment. Lombard has more power than Okami but he will fade as the fight goes on if he doesn't finish Timmehh early.

[Digo]

Wait until the oddscome out for Lombard wins in round 1. Lombard gasses and if Boetsch can weather his early explosive barrage he should be able to go through the three rounds of punishment. Watch the Okami fight and you will see Boetsch can take a good amount of punishment. Lombard has more power than Okami but he will fade as the fight goes on if he doesn't finish Timmehh early.

Nice point, i need to check the odds, but fight not goes to the distance looks good for me in this one. I think Boetsch can tko a "gassed out" Lombard in the last round.

[fosho14]

Wait until the oddscome out for Lombard wins in round 1. Lombard gasses and if Boetsch can weather his early explosive barrage he should be able to go through the three rounds of punishment. Watch the Okami fight and you will see Boetsch can take a good amount of punishment. Lombard has more power than Okami but he will fade as the fight goes on if he doesn't finish Timmehh early.

ya that's a really important point

[bogbat]

If Lombard doesn't finish in the first I think there's a very chance Boetsch could win the second and third rounds. Even though he was an olympic Judoka it is still possible he gets taken down and as we all know takedowns = winning rounds in the eyes of most judges. I'm a huge fan of Lombard but I think you would be silly to lay the juice on him here.

[Crassus]

how can you not like Boetsch after watching that though, what a good dude...makin me feel kinda crappy that I'm pretty sure Lombard puts his lights out. Ah well, the fan in me hopes a Boetsch upset and the better is putting it on Lombard.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Boetsch should ride the lawnmower during his octagon entrance.

[bjpenn85]

but is it true? against slemenchko he appeared do be in great shape for 5 rounds. why shouldt he be able to complete three rounds?

[Vaughany]

Boetsch should ride the lawnmower during his octagon entrance.

lol

[bogbat]

but is it true? against slemenchko he appeared do be in great shape for 5 rounds. why shouldt he be able to complete three rounds?

Well apparently he had the flu for that fight. I haven't watched it since it originally aired but all I recall is a gassed Lombard laying on Shlemenko for 90% of the fight. Also, didn't Shlemenko also sweep or get a take down or two himself?

[bjpenn85]

Ok, maybe not great shape. But he seemed tired but ok in 4th round. But most fighters are, if he also had a flu its impressive. But i dont feel like this will be like a huge problem, in a three round fight. Schlemenko may have swept him, i cant remember, but not in the first four as far as i am concerned. I watch 4 rounds yesterday, shlemenko had no answers. It looked so easy to get a takedown on him. My prediction is that he will easily be able to takedown tim boetsch as well. Its not because of his unique technique or a power dobbel or singel leg. I have never wrestled and dont know so much about that. But the thing with lombard is, that he has so quick hands. When he throw those combos, people never seem to even try to counter them. They curl up, and when they do, he either connect with some punches, make the opponents reverse or go down or he just take them down. Because when people are walking back, its ridiculously simple to go for a takedown, and even easier if you are a quick and strong wrestler like lombard. But my concern if any with this matchup is the willpower of tim boetsch in the later rounds. But thats is his only chance. Try to counter those punches...goodnight.