Originally Posted by
Luca Fury
I want to go big on Nate but I also ant to pass. If he fought 3 months ago, was still on TRT, and had fought at 170 recently, I'd be all over him. But there are so many red flags telling me to pass.
How will the 16 month layoff affect him?
He needs TRT, but isn't using it now -- how will that affect him?
He was a very solid middleweight in terms of size and is now cutting got welterweight for the first time in a LONG time -- how will this affect him?
Any three of those things could mess Nat cup badly here, but the syle matchup over 5 rounds is so good for him. All he needs to do is win one of the first three rounds and then he's basically him free. Tyron gasses so badly, no way he wins rounds 4 or 5 vs Nate. Marquardt can also hit him with a big knee on the way in or lock in a guillotine and finish early on.
But man, those red flags...
Ultimately, I can't pass up Marquardt at around even money, but I still can't really commit to him. So, it's just a small play for me. If Nate looks good at the weigh ins, I might lay a little more on him.