[Vitooch]

Been on a roll in MMA betting since the beginning of June, as documented in my threads. I've done my research and am ready to present my plays.

I've been eyeing this one since it was released way back when...

7/7/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 5001 Dong Hyun Kim -145* vs Demian Maia

My largest straight bet on the card so far. DHK is coming off an impressive decision win against Sean Pieson where he displayed good cardio and more importantly improved kickboxing. On his feet, DHK is a rangy kickboxer with very good leg kicks and body kicks. To go along with this ever-improving standup game is one of the best grappling bases in the division. As impressive as his throws and trips from the clinch are, where he truly shines is his top control, takedown defense, and submission defense. He will be facing Demian Maia, who will be making his debut at WW on Saturday. Maia decided to make this cut in the hopes of addressing the size disadvantage he possessed at MW. The way I look at it though, he will be sacrificing the speed and athletic advantage he possessed at 185 in the process. DHK is a freak athletically. He is long, rangy as mentioned, and strength which has been developed through weight training and years of judo practice. I don't think the aging and possibly declining Maia will be able to handle the athleticism and strength of DHK in his athletic prime. Maia's wrestling has never been great, and against such a strong and athletic judo practioner in DHK, he will have an incredibly difficult task of taking him down, which I assume is his goal. I see DHK controlling where this fight takes place. I think he will possess a sizable advantage in the standup, with a much more dynamic, and versatile striking repertoire. He will also possess a very significant cardio advantage over Maia, who gassed horribly against Weidman, and who has been known to fade in later rounds. Now, with the added weight cut his cardio will either be still poor if the cut goes perfectly or maybe even worse.

[gabe]

lol you really love brody

we were together on the 4th at a BBQ

[gabe]

I dig Kim, too.

[sirchadwick1]

Dongadongdong! All day long....

Love his line.

[Vitooch]

My biggest dog play on the card will be...

7/7/12 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 John Alessio +175* vs Shane Roller

Alessio is coming off a decision loss to Mark Bocek in his return to the Octagon at UFC 145. As convincing a win it was for Bocek, Alessio performed pretty decently considering. His takeodwn defense was solid, his boxing looked very sharp and his cardio was solid too. Not many fighters can handle the control and grappling chops of one of the divisons best grapplers in Bocek, including Shane Roller. Roller, on the other hand, has dropped three straight against lesser competition. If it wasn't for a very fortunate punch that landed cleanly on Thiago Tavares, Roller would have surely dropped that decision and would be on a 4 fight losing streak. Roller has never impressed me since his Octagon debut. His hands are slow and predictable, not very good head movement, not very good footwork, and rarely throws a kick. Alessio will possess a sizable technical striking advantage. Unlike Roller, Alessio throws an effective leg kick, and much sharper combinations. If the fight stays standing, Alessio should outpoint him unless Roller catches him and rocks him, which is unlikely. Roller's best chance of winning, and the reason why he's such a favorite, is that he possesses a wrestling advantage. With that being said, his wrestling his not as effective as the odds seem to indicate. He was controlled by TJ Grant, had no success taking down Guillard, and had no success against Michael Johnson until the third round .And even if he does register the occasional takedown, he doesn't have the control or patience to keep Alessio there. Alessio proved in the Bocek fight that his defensive BJJ off his back is good enough that he can bring the fight back standing against the likes of Roller and prevent Roller from scoring too many points from the judges. Overall, Alessio's BJJ is much better. Other than a guillotine choke that Roller seems to try to sink in in every fight, his submission game isn't very dangerous. He is agressive in top position, always trying to remain active in threatening, but an experienced fighter like Alessio has the submission and BJJ game to win scrambles and possibly catch Roller in a guillotine choke of his own or get top position himself. Overall, I think ALessio's well-roundedness, experience, and Roller's lack of MMA intelligence and overvalued skillset is enough to make a moderate sized dog play on Alessio.

[Vaughany]

lol you really love brody

we were together on the 4th at a BBQ

[Vitooch]

lol you really love brody

we were together on the 4th at a BBQ

Saw the pic on twitter and had to post it somewhere. A gem of a photo.

[Vitooch]

2 Team Parlay
7/7/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Gleison Tibau -200* vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

7/7/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1951 Yoislandy Izquierdo -175* vs Rafaello Oliveira

After rewatching Nurma's fight with Kamal, I noticed how fundamentally rudimetary his striking really is. He keeps his chin way up, closes his eyes, and swings away wildly... No footwork, no head movement, just really horrible technique. A solid striker with power like Gleison should find openings and score points standing or maybe even catch and rock Nurma. Gleison also possesses a wrestling advantage. He's the more powerful, unpredictable wrestler who sets up his takedowns much better than Nurma. Nurma's main method of winning this fight is catching Gleison like he did Kamal, whether it is during a grappling separation or scramble. As Luca Fury pointed out in his podcast though, Gleison has some of the best recovery ability in MMA if he does somehow get rocked. Nurma may have looked good against Kamal at first glance, but Gleison has much better MMA wrestling than Kamal, better cardio, and more technical boxing. I will throw him in a parlay and perhaps a straight bet if the line gets back to under -200.

As for Iz, he possesses a major striking advantage over Oliveira. While Oliveira's striking has improved, his striking defense is still poor and will have to be uncharacteristically impressive if he wants to win on Saturday. Oliveira's only chance of winning this fight is taking Iz down and either controlling him or submitting, of which he is fully capable of doing. However, combine Oliveira's poor wrestling combined with Iz's length and ever improving takedown defense, and I find it unlikely. Iz should bombard Oliveira with a versatile striking repertoire like he did in the first round against a much more talented wrestler in Madadi.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Gleison also possesses a wrestling advantage. He's the more powerful, unpredictable wrestler who sets up his takedowns much better than Nurma.

no he does not possess the wrestling advantage, Khabib will definitely outwrestle Glieson Tibau.

Striking advantage yes

Submission advantage no

Khabib is not only a solid wrestler but he is also a good judoka, he can definitely win the fight if it hits the ground

[Vitooch]

I disagree, Tibau has consistently outwrestled mid-level UFC lightweights these last few years...Pellegrino, Anjos, Neer. He consistently displays powerful double leg takedowns that are fundamentally sound . Nurma's wrestling looked sloppy against Kamal. It was only when Kamal was rocked/gassed before he could take him down. That uppercut changed the complexion of the fight.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I disagree, Tibau has consistently outwrestled mid-level UFC lightweights these last few years...Pellegrino, Anjos, Neer. He consistently displays powerful double leg takedowns that are fundamentally sound . Nurma's wrestling looked sloppy against Kamal. It was only when Kamal was rocked/gassed before he could take him down. That uppercut changed the complexion of the fight.

Except you forget the fact that Khabib comes from a region in the world were the best wrestlers in the world consistently come out from and wrestling is a national sport with kids taking up wrestling from age 2 . Kabib comes from the same genetic branch as some of the best wrestlers in the world like Bouvasar Saitiev , Adam Saitiev, Makhach Murtazaliev these guys are repeated gold medal olympic champions. That whole region is known for the best wrestlers/athletes in the world. Every fighter gets the UFC jitters going into their first fight, I expect Nurmagomedov to frustrate Tibau he will be hard to control, hard to keep down and will always be scrambling looking for submission openings. Khabib's striking is what he's lacking in the most, his style is very raw and unorthodox his sambo punching style makes it confusing for opponents to find their range and rhythm. Khabib has a better chance than you think, you won't see him quit.

[gabe]

2 Team Parlay
7/7/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Gleison Tibau -200* vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

7/7/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1951 Yoislandy Izquierdo -175* vs Rafaello Oliveira

After rewatching Nurma's fight with Kamal, I noticed how fundamentally rudimetary his striking really is. He keeps his chin way up, closes his eyes, and swings away wildly... No footwork, no head movement, just really horrible technique. A solid striker with power like Gleison should find openings and score points standing or maybe even catch and rock Nurma. Gleison also possesses a wrestling advantage. He's the more powerful, unpredictable wrestler who sets up his takedowns much better than Nurma. Nurma's main method of winning this fight is catching Gleison like he did Kamal, whether it is during a grappling separation or scramble. As Luca Fury pointed out in his podcast though, Gleison has some of the best recovery ability in MMA if he does somehow get rocked. Nurma may have looked good against Kamal at first glance, but Gleison has much better MMA wrestling than Kamal, better cardio, and more technical boxing. I will throw him in a parlay and perhaps a straight bet if the line gets back to under -200.

As for Iz, he possesses a major striking advantage over Oliveira. While Oliveira's striking has improved, his striking defense is still poor and will have to be uncharacteristically impressive if he wants to win on Saturday. Oliveira's only chance of winning this fight is taking Iz down and either controlling him or submitting, of which he is fully capable of doing. However, combine Oliveira's poor wrestling combined with Iz's length and ever improving takedown defense, and I find it unlikely. Iz should bombard Oliveira with a versatile striking repertoire like he did in the first round against a much more talented wrestler in Madadi.

You're counting on Nurma not working on his striking and holes since his last fight. Good luck.

[gabe]

Except you forget the fact that Khabib comes from a region in the world were the best wrestlers in the world consistently come out from and wrestling is a national sport with kids taking up wrestling from age 2 . Kabib comes from the same genetic branch as some of the best wrestlers in the world like Bouvasar Saitiev , Adam Saitiev, Makhach Murtazaliev these guys are repeated gold medal olympic champions. That whole region is known for the best wrestlers/athletes in the world. Every fighter gets the UFC jitters going into their first fight, I expect Nurmagomedov to frustrate Tibau he will be hard to control, hard to keep down and will always be scrambling looking for submission openings. Khabib's striking is what he's lacking in the most, his style is very raw and unorthodox his sambo punching style makes it confusing for opponents to find their range and rhythm. Khabib has a better chance than you think, you won't see him quit.

yup

[gabe]

Saw the pic on twitter and had to post it somewhere. A gem of a photo.

I told him about a guy from across the country on a UFC forum (you) making references to him just a few days ago. He liked hearing about it. lol

[Vitooch]

Except you forget the fact that Khabib comes from a region in the world were the best wrestlers in the world consistently come out from and wrestling is a national sport with kids taking up wrestling from age 2 . Kabib comes from the same genetic branch as some of the best wrestlers in the world like Bouvasar Saitiev , Adam Saitiev, Makhach Murtazaliev these guys are repeated gold medal olympic champions. That whole region is known for the best wrestlers/athletes in the world. Every fighter gets the UFC jitters going into their first fight, I expect Nurmagomedov to frustrate Tibau he will be hard to control, hard to keep down and will always be scrambling looking for submission openings. Khabib's striking is what he's lacking in the most, his style is very raw and unorthodox his sambo punching style makes it confusing for opponents to find their range and rhythm. Khabib has a better chance than you think, you won't see him quit.

Catch wrestling and MMA wrestling are two different monsters. Even if Nurma does possess the wrestling chops that are famous in this region, he does not set these takedowns up properly. Transitioning from striking to wrestling is one of the most crucial skills to learn if you want to have effective MMA wrestling at such a high level. Nurma's striking his sloppy, and wild, and his takedown attempts can be telegraphed a mile away as compared to a guy like Gleison who does such a great job of transitioning from striking to that sick power double of his. Nurma just doesn't yet seem to have that skill just yet. Nto counting out Khabib due to his toughness and heavy handed striking, but Gleison should win if he fights smart.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Catch wrestling and MMA wrestling are two different monsters. Even if Nurma does possess the wrestling chops that are famous in this region, he does not set these takedowns up properly. Transitioning from striking to wrestling is one of the most crucial skills to learn if you want to have effective MMA wrestling at such a high level. Nurma's striking his sloppy, and wild, and his takedown attempts can be telegraphed a mile away as compared to a guy like Gleison who does such a great job of transitioning from striking to that sick power double of his. Nurma just doesn't yet seem to have that skill just yet. Nto counting out Khabib due to his toughness and heavy handed striking, but Gleison should win if he fights smart.

Watch some other Khabib fights besides the Shalorus fight, you'll see Khabib has a very quick takedown shot which he transitions to single leg take downs. He also shoots takes standing side control and does those sambo/judo throws. And it's not catch wrestling, it's greco roman and freestyle wrestling, catch wrestling is something that came out of England. When Ghengis Khan and mongols invaded the lower parts of russia, his warriors all wrestled together they introduced wrestling into the region. Ghengis Khan saw wrestling as a means to keep his warriors fit in shape and ready for all kinds of adversity. He incorporated daily wrestling into their training and the nations that he invaded picked up on their traditions. It was passed down century to century.

[Vitooch]

To be blunt, other than Kamal, he's faced cans. Check out his opponents' records, all fighters with .500 or below records. Of course his wrestling and sub game looked good against these fighters. Against the only UFC caliber opponent he's faced, his wrestling did not look very good. I hope we can agree on that. I don't think it is a coincidence. Until he shows effective wrestling technique against UFC caliber talent, I will take Tibau, who has displayed very good MMA wrestling practically his whole UFC career and is a BJJ black belt who's been submitted ONCE in his career.

[Imsmarterthanu]

^ Shalorus was never submitted until he faced Khabib either

On paper Tibau is clearly much more experienced has faced UFC competition over and over again and has shown a great array of skill etc

Khabib has a tall order ahead of him no doubt about that I just think it will be a lot closer than you think

[gabe]

Gleison Tibau is not ending this dudes undefeated streak, put your money on it...

[gabe]

^ Shalorus was never submitted until he faced Khabib either

On paper Tibau is clearly much more experienced has faced UFC competition over and over again and has shown a great array of skill etc

Khabib has a tall order ahead of him no doubt about that I just think it will be a lot closer than you think

i agree, only way khabib loses is a hard fought close decision

[TheCalculator]

I'm on all your plays except Tibau.

[Vitooch]

After that knock down, Kamal was completely out of it. He seemed gas, let Kamal take him down without much fight, didn't know what round it was in the corner. Tibau is a black belt and has much better BJJ than Kamal. Also, Tibau does not have suspect cardio like Kamal.

I think this fight could be close if Nurma catches Tibau with something. DEFINITELY not counting that out as a very real possibility. Nurma is a natural fighter, tough as nails, and just has a knack for knocking people senseless. However, I think Tibau is the better fighter and wins this fight 70% of the time.

[TheCalculator]

Almost always MAJOR LEAPS in skills between a fighter's first UFC fight and second. That Shalorus fight was a perfect entry. I'm sure his coaches/team and himself realized he needs serious work on the striking side.

[Vitooch]

3 Team Parlay
7/7/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Forrest Griffin -320* vs Tito Ortiz

7/7/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 5001 Dong Hyun Kim -145* vs Demian Maia
7/7/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1009 Silva wins inside distance -162* vs Not Silva inside distance

and a little on....

7/7/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1109 Griffin wins inside distance +215* vs Not Griffin inside distance

[Vitooch]

Paying alot of juice for this straight play but I see value in it...

7/7/12 9:00pm Props Fighting 1704 Fight won't go 3 round distance -260

vs Camões/Guillard goes 3 round distance

See this fight ending inside the distance 75-80% of the time. Most likely, Guillard will stuff early takedowns and rock and most likely finish Camoes in the first round. However, with consistent mental lapses and lack of submission defense, I'm worried Camoes will find a way to get Guillard's back in a grappling exchange and choke Guillard out like many before. Can't see Guillard or Camoes winning a decision here. Both guys are finishers, and I see one fighter getting finished here more than I do in any other fight on this card.

[BIGDAY]

Bol tonight!!

Looks like a winning night for ya!

[v1y]

Fact 1: I should not be as big on roller as I am right now. (4 hundies)

Fact 2: Michael Johnson and TJ Grant would beat John Alessio worse than they beat Roller.

[Thor4140]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...nen-ii-p8.html

[Vitooch]

Fact 1: I should not be as big on roller as I am right now. (4 hundies)

Fact 2: Michael Johnson and TJ Grant would beat John Alessio worse than they beat Roller.

I feel as though Roller continues to perform badly fight in and fight out, and still gets lots of respect from linesmakers and cappers alike...why tho? His standup is slow and predictable, never been much of a wrestler. Rollers best weapon is his guillotine choke but the exprrienced Alessio should be able to defend that.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Fact 1: I should not be as big on roller as I am right now. (4 hundies)

Fact 2: Michael Johnson and TJ Grant would beat John Alessio worse than they beat Roller.

Come on, Mike. Styles make fights.

Alessio has very solid TDD, superior boxing and good cardio. Roller is an opportunistic grappler. He'll get his ass tuned up on the feet until he'll force a TD>scramble and grab his opponent's back for an RNC or GnP.

Alessio has the potential kryptonite to make Roller look very mediocre on the feet and then should be able to stuff most TDs and when he does get taken down, avoid the submissions to not get finished & eventually scramble up. Roller is not a LnPer like Bocek. Roller could certainly win a close decision or still finish Alessio with a haymaker or sub but it ain't close to 65+% of the time IMO.

The thing I'm most concerned about is Alessio's mental fortitude. I read an interview where he acknowledged that both of their jobs are probably on the line & he wants a win especially because it's his birthday blah blah blah but that, above all, he wants an exciting fight. I can't stand reading stupid shit like that... Just win John. You've bounced in & out of the UFC since freaking UFC 26 and still haven't won ONCE inside the octagon. No more Diego nightmare Sanchez or Mark Bocek matchups. Here's a gift matchup.

Oh, by the way, want a nice piece of betting trivia?

Roller has NEVER won as the betting favourite.

[Kaladarus]

Where is the video and the picks?

[Vaughany]

Oh, by the way, want a nice piece of betting trivia?

Roller has NEVER won as the betting favourite.

Well he has, at least twice in the WEC against Hicks and Budnik...also opened as favourite against Castillo and Njokuani

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Well he has, at least twice in the WEC against Hicks and Budnik...also opened as favourite against Castillo and Njokuani

He didn't win as the betting favourite against Castillo; he was a +140 dog when the line closed. Same with Njokuani; closed at +109. Tavares he was a coin flip.

Hicks he opened up EVEN (both -115) but, sure, money came in on him. Budnik I'll give you too. Who are those two guys? Exactly...

Whereas he was a big favourite over MJ, Bendo (LMAO) and Pettis (LOLed all the way to the bank).

People are delusional about Roller's grappling credentials as adapted to MMA. I would not pay -200 for him against almost anyone in the LW division unless they have piss poor TD & sub defence. Against Alessio? Fade material.

[DeFactoCrippler]

He didn't win as the betting favourite against Castillo; he was a +140 dog when the line closed. Same with Njokuani; closed at +109. Tavares he was a coin flip.

Hicks he opened up EVEN (both -115) but, sure, money came in on him. Budnik I'll give you too. Who are those two guys? Exactly...

Whereas he was a big favourite over MJ, Bendo (LMAO) and Pettis (LOLed all the way to the bank).

People are delusional about Roller's grappling credentials as adapted to MMA. I would not pay -200 for him against almost anyone in the LW division unless they have piss poor TD & sub defence. Against Alessio? Fade material.

Lol, this phaget still posts here? Good luck with your 20$ bets this weekend tony stark.

[Vitooch]

Let's go Izquierdo you bastard