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UFC 148 Writeups
Here is the write ups myself and a training partner, Blake, did. Hopefully it will give some different views for you guys has you make your picks.
July 7th 2011 brings about the much anticipated rematch between Chael Sonnen and the champ, Anderson Silva. The two fought previously when Sonnen seemed to be backing up alot of his trademark trash talk, only to be done in by another trademark... a defeat via the triangle choke, and Forrest Griffin Vs Tito Ortiz in the rubber match to finish of the trilogy of these two, and most likely to finish Ortiz’s career. Lets get started!
First we will take a look at some interesting matchups from the undercard:
PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Mike Easton -115 vs. Ivan Menjivar -105:
Blake: This would almost undoubtedly be fight of the night if it wasn't for the main event. It promises to be an all out brawl with someone lying on the mat at the end. This is a very hard call honestly. Menjivar has the experience by a long shot but Easton has the youth and the power. Menjivar has been on a hot streak finishing two of his last three opponents. I would normally look to experience in this situation but I think Ivan tends to take damage and he won't be able to make much punishment from Easton. Third round TKO for Easton. Easton -115
Riot: There has been alot of hype surrounding Easton as he becomes one of Lloyd Irvins prodigy’s. Easton will have the grappling edge and enough of a game on the feet to stay competitive standing. I was not that impressed with Easton in his last fight, but he has shown promise throughout his career. I think Easton will win a decision. Easton -115
Fabricio Camoes +220 vs. Melvin Guillard -280 :
Blake: Camoes has not been very active as of late. Most of you will know him as the guy that almost submitted Kurt Pellegrino but then got essentially knocked out when he front rolled, then was punched back into consciousness. I expect Guillard to be highly focused for this fight. As long as he comes out aggressive, but not cocky, he should take it. Melvin by first round knockout. Guillard -280
Riot: I like Melvin in this fight. There are alot of people who are worried about Melvin's ability to be rear naked choked when on the ground, the only problem with this is that Melvin has a very good takedown defense. Melvin is not quick... He is sudden... He is one of the most athletic guys on the roster.. I see him landing early and finishing off a TKO victory in the first. Guillard -280
MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)
Chad Mendes -600 vs. Cody McKenzie +450:
Blake: Really? Really Joe Silva? What has McKenzie done that makes you hate him so much. Not only does the match making not make sense in terms of ranking but why throw him to the lions like this in general? Even his patented McKenzitine is rendered nearly useless by the fact that Mendes is a member of Team Alpha. For those of you that don't know Alpha Male is essentially a group top notch wrestlers with vicious guillotines. It's where you want to go to learn how to defend against one. I honestly cannot see a scenario in which Cody pulls this one off, which is sad because he's such a likeable guy. Mendes by whatever and whenever he wants, I'm guessing brutal KO. Chad Mendes -600
Riot: I cheered for Cody McKenzie on TUF and I will cheer for him when he fights Chad Mendes... The only problem is ... All of the cheering in the world can't save him from his fate at UFC 148. Mendes beat down one of the best Jujitsu guys on his weight class, Rani Yahya... If Yahya could not submit Mendez with his bag of submissions, McKenzie’s one submission will not get it done. Mendes will win inside the distance as Cody tires in the 2nd half of the fight. If you are afraid of the juice, throw it in every parlay you make. Chad Mendes -600
Dong Hyun Kim -145 vs. Demian Maia +125:
Blake: I love this fight. This will mark Maia's debut at welter weight which I think is the weight class he should have been in all along. Even though he's a former middle weight Kim should easily be the bigger man. Kim will undoubtedly try to use that size to bully Maia around as he comes in for those takedowns, which happens to be the most interesting part of this fight. Maia actually has spectacular wrestling for a straight BJJ fighter but Kim is proving himself to be a world class grappler in his own right. I expect Kim to try to keep it standing and out strike Maia, though he has stated and shown that he's not afraid of any black belt on the ground. I think Maia will find a way to win. I expect him to be very motivated for this fight. Hopefully we see the same one that came to fight Munoz. Maia by decision. Demian Maia +125
Riot: There once was a time where Damian Maia was thought to be the future. He was submitting everything he touched. Now he hopes to avoid his third loss on four fights. He faces Kim who has quietly put together decision victories over several big names. Kim will be the bigger guy and could present problems for Maia getting him down. I think Maia will have his chances, but Kim is solid and I think he takes this decision. Dong Hyun Kim -145
Patrick Cote -220 vs. Cung Le +180:
Blake: This fight is going to be a tale of desperation. The Predator is finally getting the call back to the UFC to step in on short notice after Rich Franklin pulled out to fight Wanderlei Silva on the last card. He's likely to try to take a page out of Varner's book and put a stamp on this fight. Cung is a competitor by nature. I think he gets complacent when he wins for too long. When he loses he rededicates and really brings his A-game. He actually looked great in the Silva fight until he started gassing and got knocked out. Both are excellent fairly technical strikers who want to get in there and just hit the other guy, though I expect Le to shoot for a take down. It's really going to come down to who wants it more. Since I have to pick though I'm going to go out on a limb and give this one to Le. I actually don't see this fight going the distance. Someone is going to sleep. Le by KO in round 2. . Cung Le +180
Riot: I really like Le. I like his flash, I like the way he does unconventional kicks in the cage. I find it very amusing and good for the sport, however, these kinds of attacks seem to really wear him down. This was very evident in his fight with “The Ax Muderer” and I think we will see it again at UFC 148. Cote will be coming in on a 4 fight winning streak that got him back to the big show. I see Cote using that 5 inch reach advantage to keep Le at bay, he might go for the kill once Le tire out, but I feel he will play it safe in order to get another UFC win under his belt. Cote by Decision. Patrick Cote -220
Forrest Griffin -310 vs. Tito Ortiz +255:
Blake: This is an interesting third fight. Personally I had Griffin winning both fights but that's neither here nor there. I feel on paper Forrest should take this easy but he really doesn't have that fire anymore and Tito seems to have found it again. He has some new confidence in his new found striking ability. He will come out aggressive and swing for the fences instead of grinding him through the mat for one and a half rounds. Problem is I don't think he's going to do too well with that strategy. Forrest is still the much better striker. He'll likely have some success early with his hands and then hunt for it for the rest of the first round. By the second round Tito is always under eighty percent and will start to fade quickly. If he can't get a take down in the second and control him he will lose the fight. For the second time ever (first being when he fought Bader) I think I might be rooting for Tito. However I'm not comfortable betting on him. Griffin by Split Decision yet again, completing the trilogy and Ortiz's long career. Forrest Griffin -310
Riot: I thought the judges were wrong in each of the first two fights. Clearly Griffin survived the first first round in the first fight and came back to win the other two rounds, then in the second, I felt Tito won the first two rounds and gassed real bad in the third, but still did enough to win... that is irrelevant ... just like the two fighters stepping in to the cage for the co-main event. Neither have a legit shot at a title again, both seem to be heading towards hanging up the gloves, Tito will most likely do that after this fight, win or lose. My stomach is churning at the fact that i have only picked the favorites thus far and that is an easy way to go broke. Truth is, I feel Tito wants this more, he wants to go out with a bang, I think he will stand early and look for a takedown if he feels tired. He will lay and pray with a few punches to appease the refs. Forrest is a big guy, but Tito is by far the better wrestler ... Tito wins that split decision! . Tito Ortiz +255
Champ Anderson Silva -275 vs. Chael Sonnen +235 (for middleweight title):
Blake: So here is the problem with this fight. There is so much rhetoric about who kicked who's ass for four rounds, whether Anderson was really hurt, steroids, etc. I don't care about all of that. Well here are the facts Chael is a grinder, he doesn't finish fights. He uses his wrestling to take you down and wear you out but he does so in such a way that he wears himself out too. He's always gotten very tired in the third round. Which means his best hope of winning is grinding out Anderson Silva for five rounds. That didn't work out to well last time for him. Ando is by far one of the best finishers in the game and he's always prepared for five rounds. Even if he gets taken down again and again, which is likely but I don't see it happening as much as the last one, he will find a way to finish the fight. I've had premonitions of elbows raining from the sky, I'm just not sure which round it will be in. Silva by TKO. Anderson Silva -275
Riot: I like Chael Sonnen, I am not sure why I do, but I do. I find the way he gets under people’s skin is fantastic. If I was fighting him, I would hate him. He has shown that he is not a complete toolbag by giving some respect to Brian Stann before their fight. I think Sonnen just really tries to play mind games for a mental advantage, and to amuse himself. Breaking down this upcoming fight is interesting. Was Silva hurt then ... did his knee really almost keep him off this card ... is the 37 yr old Silva breaking down ? I know Couture fought till he was 90, but wrestlers generally take better care of themselves and dont get caught up in too many striking wars. Then there are questions about Sonnen... did he tap or didnt he ? .... Was that first Silva fight all he had, or can he reproduce that ? Why does his neck and arm always seem to attract triangles ? Why was he so bad against Bisping? I have gone over this in my head many times.... It’s one of those things where you just have envision the outcome and I cannot seem to see a scenario where Chael has his hand raised at the end .... However ... Chael has only been tko’d twice ... once was a corner stoppage... the other was a cut he got by Jeremy Horn. Chael is a tough guy .... If Silvas body is breaking down, a bum knee is not going to help his already poor take down defense.... The Books are basically begging you to take Silva... -275 ... I can’t not remember the last time he was that low. I cannot believe I am saying this .... Chael Sonnen +235
Enjoy the Card and feel free to tell us who you think is going to win!
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by cheven
... he might win, but both Blake and I were very adamant that we did not see that happening. I think the logic between theose guys, and Blake and myself is quite different. To each their own though. Always good to have multiple views before you make your decision.
