UFC Fight Night 129 | Till vs. Thompson | 5/27/2018 | Liverpool, England

**turbozed** · 05-21-18, 11:38 AM

A couple of initial thoughts on Till / Thompson just to start the discussion. Hoping this starts conversation on the below points since I'd really like to hear your guys' input.

Southpaw vs southpaw:

WB is a switch stance fighter. He can fight on either side but 90% of his fights are in southpaw stance. This might be because most of the guys he's fought are orthodox and he prefers to fight closed guard. When WB switches to orthodox, he's a bit more aggressive and throws more but also can get hit more. I'm not quite sure if this is a southpaw/orthodox preference or an open guard/closed guard preference. If it's both and he's best fighting closed guard and southpaw, then it won't be quite comfortable fighting closed guard and orthodox. I'll be very intrigued to see what stance and guard matchup he chooses here.

Distance closing:

In the past couple of years, WB has been most tentative against Woodley. Obviously because Woodley has a lot of power, but I think the other aspect here is that Woodley has that explosive first step and closes the distance. WB's success in the UFC has been due to pinpoint striking and an advantage when it comes to footwork. Not only has WB had the lateral movement advantage (see the first knockdown against Masvidal for a beautiful example of this), but also very clearly in the distance closing. WB can jump in and out so quickly that he can get his stirkes in and not be there for a return counter. Rory and Masvidal were able to tag him a few times but they weren't fast enough to really make him pay.

Though Till doesn't have as quick of a first step as Tyron, Till also is very good at managing distance and moving in and out similar to WB albiet with a less bladed karate style stance. Similar to how Conor pressures to draw out a counter, Till can get in your face, draw out a strike and then take a quick step back before jumping back in to land something. Till's timing has also been good enough to time simultaenous counters, stepping in with an elbow when his opponents come in. Now we're dealing with WB here who is multiple levels better of a striker than Tills previous opponents, but I think Till's distance game will be a bit more difficult to figure out than more stationary targets like Rory and Masvidal. WB will have to be much more careful exploding into the pocket with strikes because the possibilty of it amplifying the power of a Till counter.

Other factors:

Till is 25, Wonderboy is 35. With WB's explosive style, you'd expect him to slow down more with age than say a more grinding style fighter. This doesn't appear to be the case yet since he looked great against Masvidal. But there will be a time when age will be the limiting factor with that style. Maybe Wonderboy is a freak like Romero and can keep the ball rolling until 40, but I think it's more likely WB only has a couple of years left at the highest level. Fight with minimum 10 years age difference favor the younger fighter around 65/35.

Finally, Till will obviously have the hometown advantage whereas WB will be fighting for the first time outside of North America.

**strictlypaypal** · 05-21-18, 01:31 PM

So excited for this fight. Always tail hugo’s opinion but im going with Till. I think he clips him. The crowd will be on par with the dublin card that mcgregor headlined.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-21-18, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by strictlypaypal

So excited for this fight. Always tail hugo’s opinion but im going with Till. I think he clips him. The crowd will be on par with the dublin card that mcgregor headlined.

Except that Thompson ain’t Diego Brandao

**strictlypaypal** · 05-21-18, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Except that Thompson ain’t Diego Brandao

I totally agree. Till hasnt seen anyone like WB, and i think the line is right. I just think it’s Till time. In no way im attempting to cap this im just hyped on Till. I know the crowd is going to be rabid and i hope it will be a changing of the guard. $500 on Till at +140. Im amped

**Teem** · 05-21-18, 03:57 PM

Did great last card. 11/13 picks correct with 6 perfect. Hoping to keep it alive. You guys had some great analysis last event that helped me make picks I wasn't sure about and would have screwed up. : )

**SmellMyFinger** · 05-21-18, 04:48 PM

guys i know this is not the bellator thread but would like to know if anyone thinks there might be some value on the David rickles line +225 vs mvp, by far the best opponent page has faced and one that can definetly grind him out if page dose not ko him, rikles straight with a mvp round 1 ko hedge (when the line is out)

also regarding wonderboy and till, i think as long as xfactors like (when wonderbow will start to decline) don't come into play, wonderboy should be able to win a range kickboxing fight vs till, maybe even catch him coming in, the hometown crowd might sway some scorecards in tills favor if the rounds are close, but it might also make till try to pressure more than he should vs arguably one of the most dangerous counterstrikers in the division, just my 2 cents, not sure if i'm going to bet thompson but if late action comes on till i might drop some coin

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-21-18, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by SmellMyFinger

guys i know this is not the bellator thread but would like to know if anyone thinks there might be some value on the David rickles line +225 vs mvp, by far the best opponent page has faced and one that can definetly grind him out if page dose not ko him, rikles straight with a mvp round 1 ko hedge (when the line is out)

also regarding wonderboy and till, i think as long as xfactors like (when wonderbow will start to decline) don't come into play, wonderboy should be able to win a range kickboxing fight vs till, maybe even catch him coming in, the hometown crowd might sway some scorecards in tills favor if the rounds are close, but it might also make till try to pressure more than he should vs arguably one of the most dangerous counterstrikers in the division, just my 2 cents, not sure if i'm going to bet thompson but if late action comes on till i might drop some coin

Seems like a sensible way to play that Page fight.

**Sanity Check** · 05-21-18, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by SmellMyFinger

would like to know if anyone thinks there might be some value on the David rickles line +225 vs mvp, by far the best opponent page has faced

I think MVP's last two opponents could beat Rickels.

Check some of the names they beat.

**Shagdogy** · 05-21-18, 08:46 PM

Isn't this Fight Night 130?

Also... what's up with Amirkhani's tapology photo? LOL.

**Demonata** · 05-21-18, 09:41 PM

Jason knight <3

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-21-18, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Isn't this Fight Night 130?

Also... what's up with Amirkhani's tapology photo? LOL.

It is. And he has the best Tapology photo I've seen yet.

**GunShard** · 05-22-18, 12:36 AM

No commentary UFC fight:

**SmellMyFinger** · 05-22-18, 01:50 AM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

I think MVP's last two opponents could beat Rickels.

Check some of the names they beat.

i know who page fought, i just don't think a 38 year old cyborg (ko'ed in 12 out of his 18 losses) prezents the same dangers to page as rickles, fernando gonzales is the best he faces and took him to a split, not trying to glorify rickles too much, just trying to justify an avenue for him winning more often than the current odds imply he would, i like page a lot and hope he makes huge leaps in his career, but this smells like a prospect loss is coming if he has not improved his tdd or if the layoff made him miss a step or two

anyway i won't flood the tread with bellator stuffthanks for the imput as always

**turbozed** · 05-22-18, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Isn't this Fight Night 130?

Also... what's up with Amirkhani's tapology photo? LOL.

Crap!

**Teem** · 05-22-18, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Isn't this Fight Night 130?

Also... what's up with Amirkhani's tapology photo? LOL.

Yeah haha. When i first saw it I just stared at it in confusion

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 05-22-18, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

It is. And he has the best Tapology photo I've seen yet.

**firekillex** · 05-22-18, 10:54 AM

wonderboy -160 is a steal
people really overrating Till and underrating Wonderboy right now

**Sato** · 05-22-18, 10:57 AM

Thompsons style is the most difficult for any fighter. Tills hungry and up and coming but Thompson could be in charge for a reality check.

I like the over 3.5 and fight goes to decision.

**Sanity Check** · 05-22-18, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by SmellMyFinger

i like page a lot and hope he makes huge leaps in his career, but this smells like a prospect loss is coming if he has not improved his tdd or if the layoff made him miss a step or two

Rickels could train for MVP as if it were a title fight. He probably wants it more than MVP does.

The only thing I remember about Rickels is him being TKO'ed by a natural 155 lb Melvin Guillard way past his prime. Melvin only had to land 1 decent punch to get Dave out of there. Dave's chin could be no more and so now he's evolved into a "panic wrestler".

I think bellator gives Rickels easy fights due to his "fan friendly" brawler style of fighting and marketability. Every single person MVP fought tried to take him down. Is his next opponent substantially bigger or stronger than MVP's other opponents? Or is he just a blown up 155'er who doesn't belong @ 170?

I think MVP will wreck Dave Rickel's !@#%. Paul Daley didn't want to fight MVP. No one wants to fight him.

The great thing about this is how dumb I'll feel if I was wrong about everything. The best part of betting by far.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 05-22-18, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

wonderboy -160 is a steal
people really overrating Till and underrating Wonderboy right now

huge step up for Till..really love Till and want him to win but Thompson likely too technical and probably wins by decision.

**Thor4140** · 05-22-18, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

No commentary UFC fight:

After watching that fight and im Wonderboy im countering all night and chopping his legs down. The kid is very dangerous tho but so was Masvidal and Whitaker with their hands. I would have to go Wonderboy here also. He just seems to be able to neutralize guys with good hands.

**turbozed** · 05-22-18, 03:48 PM

Huge action on Till.

WB down to -115 now.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-22-18, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Rickels could train for MVP as if it were a title fight. He probably wants it more than MVP does.

The only thing I remember about Rickels is him being TKO'ed by a natural 155 lb Melvin Guillard way past his prime. Melvin only had to land 1 decent punch to get Dave out of there. Dave's chin could be no more and so now he's evolved into a "panic wrestler".

I think bellator gives Rickels easy fights due to his "fan friendly" brawler style of fighting and marketability. Every single person MVP fought tried to take him down. Is his next opponent substantially bigger or stronger than MVP's other opponents? Or is he just a blown up 155'er who doesn't belong @ 170?

I think MVP will wreck Dave Rickel's !@#%. Paul Daley didn't want to fight MVP. No one wants to fight him.

The great thing about this is how dumb I'll feel if I was wrong about everything. The best part of betting by far.

Daley would wreck Page smh

**Sanity Check** · 05-22-18, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Daley would wreck Page smh

If that were true, one might think Paul Daley would fight MVP instead of the wrestlers who are always taking him down.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-22-18, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

If that were true, one might think Paul Daley would fight MVP instead of the wrestlers who are always taking him down.

Bellator is protecting MVP from Daley for now. I think they'll have to fight eventually.

**Thrilla** · 05-22-18, 08:17 PM

**Sato** · 05-23-18, 02:30 AM

Cant listen to Rogan anymore. Used to listen to his podcast...cant even do that anymore. Too dumb.

**Teem** · 05-23-18, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by Sato

Cant listen to Rogan anymore. Used to listen to his podcast...cant even do that anymore. Too dumb.

Why you say that?

**Shagdogy** · 05-23-18, 08:32 AM

Turbo! What does the resident WMMA expert say about Mazany/Länsberg?

Not a super high intrigue fight but Mazany at even odds seems like a steal. I see her with better TDs, better motor, busy gnp.

**strictlypaypal** · 05-23-18, 09:51 AM

Something happened with Thompson i think. Idk if you guys follow gabe killian on twitter he tweeted he has an inside scoop on why heavy action came in on Till. He was +140 yesterday now hes -105

**strictlypaypal** · 05-23-18, 10:26 AM

Called multiple bookies they all have till -130 and up. Wtf. Locked him in at -105

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 05-23-18, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by strictlypaypal

Something happened with Thompson i think. Idk if you guys follow gabe killian on twitter he tweeted he has an inside scoop on why heavy action came in on Till. He was +140 yesterday now hes -105

**strictlypaypal** · 05-23-18, 10:47 AM

He was hanging with rogan and schaub last night. Its till time.

**Demonata** · 05-23-18, 10:50 AM

Is this going to be live on fox sports?