UFC on FOX: Poirier vs. Gaethje (April 14, 2018)

[UncleChael]

A gust of wind and he does the chicken dance. Time.to bring back that Avy!

[UncleChael]

Justin is tough as nails, fearless and does press forward.. I'm not writing him off in this fight.. We've seen Dustin Poirier get dropped before..

Poirier will hit him with everything and Justin will still be there coming forward. And when Poirier slips up once its over.

[JIBBBY]

Poirier will hit him with everything and Justin will still be there coming forward. And when Poirier slips up once its over.

I had thought maybe Poirier would pick Justin apart at distance but I'm now leaning more that Justin presses and eventually drops DP under the pressure as well..

Unc I'm with you on this.. Justin wins I'm changing my avatar back to Justin as well... ...

Justin by KO..

1037 Gaethje wins by TKO/KO

+155

[UncleChael]

I had thought maybe Poirier would pick Justin apart at distance but I'm now leaning more that Justin presses and eventually drops DP under the pressure as well..

Unc I'm with you on this.. Justin wins I'm changing my avatar back to Justin as well... ...

Justin by KO..

1037 Gaethje wins by TKO/KO

+155

Lets gettttt ittttttt

[JC2008]

At least when you bet on Gaethje you know he is going to fight until the end and he is a straight-up BEAST!

[Hugo de Naranja]

At least when you bet on Gaethje you know he is going to fight until the end and he is a straight-up BEAST!

Very true

[Shagdogy]

Hard to bet either side too confidently in the main event. Poirier is going to land so many clean strikes on Gaethje. He's just going to be teeing off, but the chin angle is real. There's a very big advantage there for Gaethje. I lean Poirier for the stoppage but he definitely can't go in there brawling.

[JC2008]

Very true

JG also has an iron beard so give me him as a dog any day... Like I said... maybe he loses but at least he will go out on his shield if he does. This smells like fight of the year and I think the fight to go the distance should be at least considered; and a minor draw sprinkle may be in order. I'll still roll primarily on Gaethje as an underdog though... I did notice a bit of money going on in Poirier today but after following JG's career; I feel he's being undervalued here due to his last loss. Just my opinion though...

[JC2008]

Hard to bet either side too confidently in the main event. Poirier is going to land so many clean strikes on Gaethje. He's just going to be teeing off, but the chin angle is real. There's a very big advantage there for Gaethje. I lean Poirier for the stoppage but he definitely can't go in there brawling.

- I have visions of Poirier landing non-stop shots and eating a fight-ending knee to the chin that will render him unconscious...

[turbozed]

Tavares down to -110 on Dimes. Cheap enough for me to play a tiny bit. Close fight but I like Tavares' consistency and growth over the past couple of fights.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I really like Salikhov Round 1 (+325). 12 of Salikhov's 13 wins come via finish and all 12 are in R1. Think he catches Rainey with a big spinning kick early and puts him away. I played it for 2u.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Going to be busy tomorrow morning so I'm posting my picks and bets tonight

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 29: Poirier vs. Gaethje Picks:
Luke Sanders Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alejandro Perez Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Arjan Singh Bhullar Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Yushin Okami Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Lauren Mueller Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Gilbert Burns Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Brad Tavares Unanimous Decision (29–28 x3)
Wilson Reis Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Muslim Salikhov Round 1 KO (Spinning Hook Kick)
Antonio Carlos Junior Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Cortney Casey Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Israel Adesanya Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alex Oliveira Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Dustin Poirier Round 1 KO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 29: Poirier vs. Gaethje

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Sanders vs. Williams
Sanders KO/TKO (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Sanders Round 2 (+400) .5u

Hedge(s):
Williams ITD (+465) .5u
Williams Round 1 (+800) .5u

Fight #2: Perez vs. Lopez
Perez (+110) 1.5u
Perez Decision (+228) 2u
Perez Round 3 (+1875) .5u

Hedge:
Lopez Submission (+635) .5u

Fight #3: Singh Bhullar vs. Wieczorek
No Bet

Fight #4: Okami vs. Lima
Okami ITD (+437) .75u

Fight #5: Mueller (DEBUT) vs. Dobson
Mueller (-110) 1.65u to win 1.5u
Mueller ITD (+500) .5u

Fight #6: Burns vs. Moret (DEBUT)
Burns+Moret Under 2.5 (+125) 1u
Burns KO/TKO (+550) .5u

Hedge(s):
Moret (+465) 1u
Moret Decision (+825) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #7: Tavares vs. Jotko
Tavares (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
Tavares Decision (+172) 1u

Fight #8: Reis vs. Moraga
Moraga ITD (+350) 1u
Moraga KO/TKO (+550) .5u

Hedge:
Reis Decision (+160) .5u

Fight #9: Salikhov vs. Rainey (DEBUT)
Salikhov Round 1 (+325) 2u

Hedge:
Rainey Submission (+1100) .75u

Fight #10: Carlos Junior vs. Boetsch
Carlos Junior Submission (+150) 2u

Hedge:
Boetsch KO/TKO (+515) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #11: Casey vs. Waterson
Casey ITD (+525) 1u
Casey Submission (+970) 1u
Casey Round 1 (+1025) .5u

Hedge:
Waterson Submission (+680) .75u

Fight #12: Adesanya vs. Vettori
Adesanya ITD (+115) 2.5u
Adesanya Round 2 (+525) .5u

Hedge:
Vettori Round 1 (+850) .5u

Fight #13: Oliveira vs. Condit
Oliveira Submission (+1100) .5u

Hedge:
Condit Round 3 (+1500) .5u

Fight #14: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Poirier -5.5 (+100) 1u
Poirier Round 1 (+425) .75u
Poirier Decision (+550) 1u

Hedge(s):
Gaethje Round 2 (+600) .75u
Gaethje Decision (+900) .5u
Gaethje Round 3 (+1025) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Salikhov/Carlos Junior (+112) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Tavares+Jotko GD/Carlos Junior+Boetsch WGD (+123) 2u
Sanders+Williams WGD/Burns+Moret WGD (+151) 1u
Salikhov+Rainey WGD/Vettori+Adesanya WGD (+161) 1u
Reis/Carlos Junior ITD/Salikhov+Rainey U2.5 (+505) .25u
Okami/Mueller/Burns+Moret U2.5 (+532) .5u
Sanders KO/Perez/Bhullar+Wieczorek O2.5 (+567) .25u
Oliveira Decision/Poirier KO (+584) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+269) 1.25u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+669) .5u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+2025) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Carlos Junior/Usman (+101) 1u
Carlos Junior/Thompson (+121) 2.5u
Morono/Poirier (+143) 1.5u
Cerrone/Poirier (+179) 2u

[turbozed]

^ Good luck Hugo.

We got some convergence with our plays. Also on Mueller, Tavares, Boetsch KO, Israel Rd2, and Casey/H2O under.

[thewitchinghour]

loving jotko tomorrow

also worth noting marvin has never been finished in his career... I think he is clearly the more rounded fighter although not as lethal...

[TPowell]

Loving Jotko, ACJ, and Lopez. Going against Hugo in a lot of spots it seems.

[TPowell]

My card is finished

http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

[TPowell]

Krzysztof Jotko	Brad Tavares	+170	1
Wilson Reis	John Moraga	-120	1.2
Matthew Lopez	Alejandro Perez	-130	1.3
Matthew Lopez	Alejandro Perez	-120	1

Props and Parlays			Unit Bet
Fight Pick Odds Pr Arjan Bhullar vs Adam Wieczorek Fight goes to decision -110			1
Fight Pick Odds Pr Krzysztof Jotko vs Brad Tavares Fight goes to decision -260 Pr Antonio Carlos Junior vs Tim Boetsch Fight doesn't go to decision -185 Parlay Odds: +113			0.5
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Krzysztof Jotko vs Brad Tavares Jotko wins by decision +205			1
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Krzysztof Jotko vs Brad Tavares Jotko (scorecards = no action) +153			1
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Antonio Carlos Junior vs Tim Boetsch Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +515			0.25
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Antonio Carlos Junior vs Tim Boetsch Boetsch wins in round 3 +1,500			0.1
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Luke Sanders vs Patrick Williams Sanders wins inside distance -180 Pi Antonio Carlos Junior vs Tim Boetsch Carlos Junior to win -245 Parlay Odds: +119			0.5
Fight Pick Odds Pi Arjan Bhullar vs Adam Wieczorek Bhullar to win -340 Pi Antonio Carlos Junior vs Tim Boetsch Carlos Junior to win -245 Parlay Odds: -122			0.75
Fight Pick Odds Pi Antonio Carlos Junior vs Tim Boetsch Carlos Junior to win -245 PrPi Ricky Rainey vs Muslim Salikhov Salikhov wins inside distance +145 Parlay Odds: +245			0.33
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Carlos Condit vs Alex Oliveira Oliveira wins by submission +1,050			0.1
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Wilson Reis vs John Moraga Moraga wins by TKO/KO +550			0.25
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Wilson Reis vs John Moraga Moraga wins in round 3 +1,775			0.1
Fight Pick Odds Pr Ricky Rainey vs Muslim Salikhov Fight doesn't go to decision -140 Pr Krzysztof Jotko vs Brad Tavares NOT Tavares wins inside distance -505 Parlay Odds: +105			0.5

[frankieunits2685]

FIGHT NIGHT

[DDT]

Should be a fun card

[JIBBBY]

Fairly large card (14 scheduled fights), early start time as well....

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-april-14-2018?f1=Krzysztof-Jotko&f2=Brad-Tavares

[JC2008]

Betway prop: over 2.5 submissions for the 14 fights

Yes -115
No -118

Is this ridiculous? I very well see 3 submissions in 14 fights possibly.

I don't think Waterson will win but this is MMA... So does anyone think this prop may be worth a stab?

Waterson Condit Vettori and Gaethje all to win +4000

[Shagdogy]

UFC on Fox 29: Poirier vs. Gaethje Picks:
Luke Sanders Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alejandro Perez Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Arjan Singh Bhullar Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Yushin Okami Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Lauren Mueller Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Gilbert Burns Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Brad Tavares Unanimous Decision (29–28 x3)
Wilson Reis Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Muslim Salikhov Round 1 KO (Spinning Hook Kick)
Antonio Carlos Junior Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Cortney Casey Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Israel Adesanya Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alex Oliveira Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Dustin Poirier Round 1 KO (Punches)

Only picking against you on Perez and Reis, but neither one I'm all that confident in. I bet Lopez earlier this week with more confidence but have walked it back since. Good luck!

[Shagdogy]

Lopez -127, 1.27u
Mueller -135 (average of 2 bets), 2u
Tavares -125, 2u
Adesanya/Vettori o1.5, -165, 2u
Poirier -140, 2u

Oliveira/Bhullar parlay -120, 1.2u
Oliveira/ACJ parlay +100, 1u

That's all for me... I think. Will try to keep my cool regardless what happens early in this card and let it play out. Never know though once it gets rolling. Good luck everyone!

[JIBBBY]

My picks... GL everyone!!!

1) Luke Sanders KO
2) Lopez by Dec
3) Buellar by Dec
4) Lima Straight
5) Meuller by Dec
6) Burns by Sub
7) Jotko by Dec
8) Reis by sub/ hedged Moraga ITD
9) Sailkholv ITD
10) Junior by sub/ Hedged Boetsch by KO
11) Waterson ITD
12) Vettori Straight/ Hedged Israel KO
13) Condit Staight
14) Gaethje by KO

[UncleChael]

Let there be war!!!

[spurginobili]

I tailed you on Sanders rd 2 Hugo...it's looking good

[BIGDAY]

Let’s PLAY


Hugh Card.

[spurginobili]

Damn, Williams looked done after rd 1. I guess I jinxed it

[JIBBBY]

Couple of bums there.. Luke should have put him away and pressed harder..

[Richard Clock]

Took Lopez here. Perez's recent performances and lack of development has been underwhelming. Think we will see an even better Lopez after being humbled by a P4P great in Asuncao. Lopez has different pathways to win here. I like Hugo's hedge of Lopez by submission but took Lopez straight up.

[Richard Clock]

Good first round, but Perez has such solid cardio that I am a little worried

[Winning oasis]

Good first round, but Perez has such solid cardio that I am a little worried

Thanks for the updates. I don't have coverage until 6p - another
hour and a half. Tailed Hugo on all early fights.

[Shagdogy]

Good first round, but Perez has such solid cardio that I am a little worried

Not so much solid cardio from Perez as it was horrendous cardio from Lopez. He came ready to fight one round. Bad.