UFC on FOX: Poirier vs. Gaethje (April 14, 2018)

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Hugo de Naranja
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-14-16
    • 14140

    #36
    Does anyone have the Gaethje vs. Guillard fight? I'm having trouble finding it
    Comment
    • firekillex
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-18-13
      • 6420

      #37
      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
      Does anyone have the Gaethje vs. Guillard fight? I'm having trouble finding it
      Mover.uz - Видео онлайн. Юмор, приколы, клипы, интересные моменты и многое другое.
      Comment
      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #38
        Originally posted by firekillex
        Thanks bro
        Comment
        • Shagdogy
          SBR MVP
          • 06-16-10
          • 3564

          #39
          Matthew Lopez training out in Colorado with Whitman, Gaethje, Thug Rose etc. for this fight has me convinced. I was leaning Lopez regardless but if Whitman can get his striking improving more and more than he should def be able to handle Perez. And this fight in AZ will be a hometown fight for Lopez: AZ born and raised, and wrestled at ASU.
          Comment
          • Shagdogy
            SBR MVP
            • 06-16-10
            • 3564

            #40
            ^ although poor cut, bad game plan, and leg kicks he ate from the last fight paint d a much different picture than his previous fights.

            Assuncao is a different test than Alejandro Perez though.
            Comment
            • TPowell
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-21-08
              • 18842

              #41
              Originally posted by Shagdogy
              ^ although poor cut, bad game plan, and leg kicks he ate from the last fight paint d a much different picture than his previous fights.

              Assuncao is a different test than Alejandro Perez though.
              Yeah the weight cut is concerning but him heavier in this fight would be a disaster for Perez IMO. He does NOT check leg kicks at all which is troublesome with the way Perez throws them but Perez throws them too naked to not get taken down or clipped IMO
              Comment
              • JAKEPEAVY21
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 03-11-11
                • 29267

                #42
                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                Matthew Lopez training out in Colorado with Whitman, Gaethje, Thug Rose etc. for this fight has me convinced. I was leaning Lopez regardless but if Whitman can get his striking improving more and more than he should def be able to handle Perez. And this fight in AZ will be a hometown fight for Lopez: AZ born and raised, and wrestled at ASU.
                I would not put much stock into hometown advantages, except for maybe in Brazil.

                Last week, the Boston area fighters went 0-4 in their hometown fights.
                Comment
                • Shagdogy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-16-10
                  • 3564

                  #43
                  Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21
                  I would not put much stock into hometown advantages, except for maybe in Brazil.

                  Last week, the Boston area fighters went 0-4 in their hometown fights.
                  That was in NYC but if I recall correctly those same Boston guys showed up in BIG ways when the card was actually in Boston. Kattar KO’d Burgos and Bochniak beat Davis. Also Rob Font TKO’d Almeida soooo....

                  Now if you’re talking Iaquinta losing at home, well, hmmmm. He was never gonna win that matchup.
                  Comment
                  • Shagdogy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-16-10
                    • 3564

                    #44
                    Although, those guys all train and live in Boston too. Lopez is in CO so this isn’t quite the same thing for him. He still has to travel.
                    Comment
                    • TPowell
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-21-08
                      • 18842

                      #45
                      Moraga/Reis fight is very interesting. Moraga can't stop TD's to save his life and Reis may have the worst chin at 125 pounds. Has been dropped 6 times in 10 fights, including by Joby Sanchez, Scott Jorgensen, and Jussier Formiga. Those guys are NOT good strikers by any stretch or have legitimate power. Will have to see what Moraga ITD looks like compared to Moraga TKO
                      Comment
                      • Kermit
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 09-27-10
                        • 32555

                        #46
                        Dustin should be a bigger favorite.
                        Comment
                        • Hugo de Naranja
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-14-16
                          • 14140

                          #47
                          Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question:

                          How many times has Tim Boetsch been finished in the UFC?

                          What is Dustin Poirier's UFC record?

                          What is Carlos Condit's career record in fights that go the distance?
                          Comment
                          • firekillex
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-18-13
                            • 6420

                            #48
                            How many times has Tim Boetsch been finished in the UFC?
                            8

                            What is Dustin Poirier's UFC record?
                            13 wins 4 losses 1 BS no contest

                            What is Carlos Condit's career record in fights that go the distance?[/QUOTE]
                            2 wins / 6 losses
                            probably be 7 losses after this weekend ( bad matchup for him )


                            i swear i check this everytime as you post... next one ill take off give somebody else a shot haha
                            Comment
                            • Hugo de Naranja
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 04-14-16
                              • 14140

                              #49
                              I think you're missing one W/L from Poirier's UFC record. Other two answers are correct.
                              Comment
                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-14-16
                                • 14140

                                #50
                                Also I love the emphasis on the BS No Contest
                                Comment
                                • firekillex
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-18-13
                                  • 6420

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                  I think you're missing one W/L from Poirier's UFC record. Other two answers are correct.
                                  oh shiet 14 wins **
                                  should be 15 lol, first fight 2011 damn hes been around a while in the UFC
                                  i remember watching the documentary with him years ago, hes come a long way
                                  Comment
                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-14-16
                                    • 14140

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by firekillex
                                    oh shiet 14 wins **
                                    should be 15 lol, first fight 2011 damn hes been around a while in the UFC
                                    i remember watching the documentary with him years ago, hes come a long way
                                    Nice win buddy!
                                    Comment
                                    • firekillex
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-18-13
                                      • 6420

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                      Nice win buddy!
                                      ill be retired the next event hahah

                                      this weekend card looks good though for a free one
                                      kinda pissed condit is fighting oliveria though , i feel like cowboy is going to try and grind out a shit decision.. condit v brown was perfect for both guys
                                      Comment
                                      • JIBBBY
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-10-09
                                        • 83686

                                        #54
                                        MMA MANIA Prelim write ups -






                                        185 lbs.: Tim Boetsch vs. Antonio Carlos Junior

                                        Tim Boetsch (21-11) — once floundering in a 2-6 stretch that included three consecutive stoppage losses — currently finds himself on a 3-1 run with three knockouts. After tapping to Ronaldo Souza at UFC 208, Boetsch handed Johny Hendricks the second stoppage loss of his career in Nov. 2017 with a vicious head kick and follow-up punches.
                                        “The Barbarian” will give up two inches of height and five inches of reach to the Brazilian.
                                        Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2) stumbled out of the UFC gate, starting his Octagon career 2-2 (1 NC), but has since found his stride with four straight wins. Said victories include a decision over the fast-rising Marvin Vettori and a submission of Brazilian jiu-jitsu standout Eric Spicely.
                                        The seven submission victories for “Cara de Sapato” include four by rear-naked choke.
                                        Everyone loves Boetsch and for good reason, but the guy’s takedown defense and defensive jiu-jitsu just aren’t up to snuff. This is a flat-out toxic matchup for him; Carlos is big and durable enough to hold his own on the feet until the takedown opens up, at which point it’s just a matter of time.
                                        I’d be less confident about this pick if Carlos’ cardio was still a liability, but his endurance looked solid against Vettori and Spicely, limiting the chance of a classic Boetsch comeback. Carlos hands “The Barbarian” yet another quick submission loss.
                                        Prediction: Carlos by first-round submission

                                        170 lbs.:
                                        Muslim Salikhov vs. Ricky Rainey

                                        Muslim Salikhov’s (13-2) Kung-Fu pedigree and lengthy highlight reel made him a sizable favorite over veteran Alex Garcia in the Russian’s UFC debut. “The King of Kung Fu’s” ground game wasn’t quite up to snuff, however, and he wound up tapping midway through the second round.
                                        All 12 of his stoppage victories have come in the first round, 10 via (technical) knockout and two by submission.
                                        After dropping a split decision to Dhiego Lima in XFC, Ricky Rainey (13-4) made the move to Bellator, where he’s gone 5-2 with three knockouts. His only losses came against Michael Page and Chidi Njokuani, the latter of whom he almost certainly deserved to get the nod against.
                                        He steps in for the injured Abdul Razak Alhassan on short notice.
                                        Rainey is a skilled, powerful striker with a solid clinch game and about 10 inches of reach on Salikhov. He should be undefeated in his last five fights. Nevertheless, he’s going to get wrecked.
                                        There are maybe two or three Welterweight fighters who can handle Salikhov standing. Rainey is not one of them. “The King of Kung Fu” is too fast, too powerful and has too big an arsenal for Rainey to survive on the feet. Rainey could find success by controlling Salikhov in the clinch and fishing for trips as he did Njokuani, but that requires getting into the Dagestani’s firing range, which is a one-way trip. Salikhov scores an eye-catching knockout.
                                        Prediction: Salikhov via first-round knockout

                                        125 lbs.:
                                        Wilson Reis vs. John Moraga

                                        A 5-1 run carried Wilson Reis (22-8) to a title fight against Demetrious Johnson, who handed the Brazilian the first submission loss of his mixed martial arts (MMA) career via armbar. Things didn’t go much better for Reis against Henry Cejudo, falling victim to the Olympian’s boxing en route to a technical knockout loss.
                                        All 10 of his submission victories have come via rear-naked choke (eight) or arm triangle.
                                        John Moraga (18-6) rebounded from a three-fight skid with a one-sided decision over Ashkan Mokhtarian, but entered his fight with top prospect Magomed Bibulatov as the largest underdog on the card by a fair margin. Undaunted, Moraga destroyed the vaunted Dagestani with a left hook in just 98 seconds to earn “Performance of the Night.”
                                        He is two inches taller than Reis and will have a one-inch of reach.
                                        This fight comes down to whether Reis can stay awake. He’s got the wrestling to exploit Moraga’s shaky takedown defense and the submission prowess to end it there. That said, he also gets dropped approximately once a fight, even by lesser punchers like Jussier Formiga. When Moraga’s on, he’s an iron-tough ball of aggression with enough scrambling prowess to stay out of trouble on the ground.
                                        “Chicano John” has had some bad performances in the not-too-distant past, but I just can’t trust Reis’ durability after that thrashing from Cejudo. Moraga finds the mark with a hook after a few minutes of scrappy, back-and-forth action.
                                        Prediction: Moraga via first-round technical knockout

                                        185 lbs.:
                                        Krzysztof Jotko vs. Brad Tavares

                                        Krzysztof Jotko (19-3) dispatched five consecutive opponents before a split decision loss to Dave Branch unceremoniously halted his run in its tracks. He looked poised to regain his momentum after spending a round thrashing the mercurial Uriah Hall at UFC Fight Night 116, but fell victim to a surprise come-from-behind knockout.
                                        He will have two inches of reach on Hawaii’s Brad Tavares (16-4).
                                        Tavares quietly put together a five-fight win streak from 2012 to 2014 before hitting a three-fight skid that included knockout losses to Tim Boetsch and Robert Whittaker, the latter in just 44 seconds. He has since won three straight over Caio Magalhaes, Elias Theodorou and Thales Leites.
                                        He has four professional wins via (technical) knockout, though none in his last 13 fights.
                                        It’s honestly kind of impressive that Tavares has not had a single entertaining victory in, what, a half-decade? Clinching, low kicks and punches with negligible stopping power behind them do not must-watch TV make. Jotko was in a similar boat until recently, but appears to have picked up a decent killer instinct.
                                        Right around the time he started losing. Bad luck, that.
                                        Neither man has the takedown prowess to consistently drag the other to the mat, so expect a lot of stand up exchanges and prolonged slogs against the cage. It’ll come down to the wire, but Tavares’ superior kicks should earn him the win.
                                        Prediction: Tavares via unanimous decision


                                        155 lbs.:
                                        Gilbert Burns vs. Dan Moret

                                        An undefeated start (3-0) to Gilbert Burns’ (12-2) UFC career gave way to a 1-2 slump thanks to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazeres, both of whom defeated Burns in Brazil. He got back on track with a one-punch starching of Jason Saggo, but was then deemed too heavy to fight Olivier Aubin-Mercier by Florida’s athletic commission.
                                        Seven of his 11 stoppage wins have come by decision.
                                        After dropping his RFA debut to Luke Sanders, Dan Moret (13-3) won five of his next six fights to earn a crack at Featherweight champ Raoni Barcelos, who flattened Moret with a counter left early in the second. Moret then moved to 155 pounds, where he’s won two straight.
                                        He stands two inches taller than Burns at 6’0.”
                                        Moret has some decent combination striking, but the real meat of his game is his wrestling. He’s got a terrifically quick level change and is quite effective from top position. His core issue is defense — his takedown defense wasn’t enough against Bobby Moffett and his straightforward striking got him countered to death by Barcelos.
                                        It’s not a great issue to have against a world-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist with one-shot knockout power in his hands.
                                        Moret doesn’t have the tools to piece up Burns at range the way Magomedov did or the physicality to grind him down the way Prazeres did. Burns gets him to the mat one way or the other and locks up a finisher.
                                        Prediction: Burns via first-round submission

                                        125 lbs.:
                                        Shana Dobson vs. Lauren Mueller

                                        Ranked No. 16 on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26, Shana Dobson (3-1) succumbed to Roxanne Modafferi’s ground-and-pound in the opening round. She showed she’s UFC-caliber at the Finale, however, battering Ariel Beck for a second-round technical knockout victory.
                                        “Danger” stands an inch taller than Lauren Mueller (4-0) at 5’6.”
                                        Mueller ran through three designated victims before stepping up on short notice to face Kelly McGill-Velasco on Ep. 8 of “Tuesday Night Contender Series” (DWTNCS). Despite this, she spent the first two rounds mauling McGill-Velasco and fought a competitive third round to secure the decision.
                                        Her one stoppage victory came by submission to strikes.
                                        This one’s genuinely a toughie. Mueller should some quality grit on DWTNCS and can do some real damage on the inside, but gassed late in that fight and struggles at range. Dobson, meanwhile, has legitimate power in her strikes but can be outworked. The key questions are whether Mueller can maintain her pace for all three rounds and whether Dobson can crack her chin.
                                        It’ll be a few fights before we really get an idea of these women’s ceilings, as each has just one professional win over someone with a winning record, so this could easily go in any direction. Mueller’s sheer volume and physicality have me leaning her way — expect her to narrowly edge Dobson in a competitive, entertaining striking match.
                                        Prediction: Mueller via split decision

                                        170 lbs.:
                                        Dhiego Lima vs. Yushin Okami

                                        Dhiego Lima (12-6) reached TUF 19 Finale before getting starched by Eddie Gordon, then suffered two more knockout losses in his next three fights. After winning the Titan FC Welterweight title, he returned for TUF 25 and again fell in the finals, this time to Jesse Taylor.
                                        He is eight years younger than “Thunder.”
                                        Yushin Okami (34-11) fought his way out of a 1-3 slump to win four straight, two in Japan and two in World Series of Fighting (WSOF) / Professional Fighters League (PFL). When Mauricio “Shogun” Rua withdrew from a fight with Ovince Saint Preux, Okami stepped all the way up to Light Heavyweight on short notice, which earned him his first-ever submission loss courtesy of Saint Preux’s shoulder.
                                        He has knocked out 12 opponents and submitted another five.
                                        This may surprise you, but there’s a very good chance this winds up being very, very boring. Neither man is a prolific finisher, meaning the only real drama is whose chin will disintegrate first, Lima’s ever-tender mandible or Okami’s shopworn jaw.
                                        Assuming no sudden cessations of consciousness, Okami’s size, strength and wrestling prowess seem well-suited to grinding down Lima as others have before. Okami’s jab is also sharp enough to control the stand up, and while Lima’s a threat from his back, “Thunder’s” top control is ironclad. Okami wears down Lima in the clinch and on the ground to take a dull decision.
                                        Prediction: Okami via unanimous decision

                                        265 lbs.: Arjan Singh Bhullar vs.
                                        Adam Wieczorek

                                        Arjan Singh Bhullar (7-0) enjoyed a storied career as a freestyle wrestler before moving to MMA, winning gold at the Commonwealth Games and representing Canada at the 2012 Olympics. He made his Octagon debut in Nov. 2017 against fellow grinder Luis Henrique and controlled the first two rounds to take a unanimous decision.
                                        He stands four inches shorter than “Siwy” and will give up five inches of reach.
                                        It took four tries to finally get Adam Wieczorek (9-1) into the Octagon, as fights with Dmitry Smolyakov fell through twice and his bout with Anthony Hamilton got rescheduled at the last minute. He finally made his debut in Nov. 2017 with a decision over Hamilton in just his second trip to the judges.
                                        Five of his eight stoppage wins have come by submission.
                                        This honestly feels reductive of me, but the story here seems pretty simple: Bhullar is a top-tier wrestler and Wieczorek has neither the takedown defense nor submission game to stop him from grinding him into the dirt. Further, Wieczorek isn’t a particularly dangerous striker, so shutting down Bhullar’s wrestling with the threat of a knockout blow is out of the question.
                                        Wieczorek is durable enough and tricky enough on the mat that he’ll have the full 15 minutes to pull a miracle out of his rear, but the likely outcome is a three-round wrestling clinic from Bhullar.
                                        Prediction: Bhullar via unanimous decision

                                        135 lbs.:
                                        Alejandro Perez vs. Matthew Lopez

                                        It hasn’t always been the cleanest, but Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) enters the cage this Saturday on a five-fight unbeaten streak since falling to Patrick Williams in his second UFC appearance. His 2017 campaign saw him survive three knockdowns to scrape past Andre Soukhamthath and subsequently upset Iuri Alcantara.
                                        He will give up an inch of height and three inches of reach to Matthew Lopez (10-2).
                                        After losing a wild grappling match with Rani Yahya, Lopez established himself as one to watch with victories over Mitch Gagnon and Johnny Eduardo, the latter of whom he stopped with strikes in less than three minutes. His balls-to-the-wall aggression wasn’t enough against Raphael Assuncao, however, and a savage right hand put him to sleep early in the third.
                                        He’s knocked out four opponents and submitted another four, one of them via strikes.
                                        Perez’s UFC run has been … hard to place. He looked mediocre against Albert Morales, while both Soukhamthath and Alcantara showed inexplicably poor fight IQ. He’s obviously skilled and well-rounded, but there’s nothing outstanding about his game.
                                        Luckily for me, Lopez is easier to figure out. He’s a frantic, aggressive takedown artist whose propensity for rampant assaults leaves him vulnerable to counters. Perez is a bit fragile himself, though, and Lopez figures to have a clear wrestling edge. I say Lopez overpowers Perez in the scrambles on his way to a decision victory.
                                        Prediction: Lopez via unanimous decision

                                        135 lbs.:
                                        Luke Sanders vs. Patrick Williams

                                        Luke Sanders (11-2) seemed destined for great things after his run as RFA Bantamweight champion and submission win over Maximo Blanco in his UFC debut. The Octagon has not treated him well lately, however, as “Cool Hand Luke” suffered come-from-behind stoppage losses to Iuri Alcântara and Andre Soukhamthath in successive appearances.
                                        Patrick Williams (8-5) wound up on the wrong end of one of the best flying knees you’ll ever see in his UFC debut against Chris Beal, but bounced back with a 23-second submission of Alejandro Perez his next time out. Almost two years later, he welcomed top prospect Tom Duquesnoy to the Octagon and succumbed to the Frenchman’s lethal elbows in the second round.
                                        This will be just his third fight since April 2014.
                                        Sanders is probably the best UFC Bantamweight with a losing record in the Octagon. Nice striking, quality wrestling and a dangerous ground-and-pound artist make him dangerous wherever the fight goes. If he’s anything like what I think he is, he should annihilate Williams.
                                        Williams has shown iffy cardio and an inability to properly blend his striking with his wrestling. Add that to his ring rust and the fact that he’s 36 years old and you’ve got a fairly easy victim for Sanders. “Cool Hand” breaks him down on the feet before ultimately pounding him out in the second.
                                        Prediction: Sanders via second-round technical knockout



                                        Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 48-20
                                        Comment
                                        • Shagdogy
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-16-10
                                          • 3564

                                          #55
                                          I've seen a lot of people in love with Cortney Casey this week, but watching tape it's really hard to get a good handle on what Waterson really is.

                                          Have we ever seen Michelle Waterson plain out-boxed in the UFC? Torres probably had the best pure boxing success of anyone against Waterson, but for the first time in the UFC Waterson came out in an orthodox boxing stance and ditched her southpaw, sideways karate standup. Will she continue to stay in that stance for this fight vs. Casey?

                                          Have we ever seen Waterson beaten by a superior range game? Rose did it with the kick, GnP, and sub game. Torres did it by getting inside with speed and doing some good clinch work as well. Also, like I said before, this was Waterson's first fight in the orthodox boxing stance. Will she stay there or will she get back to the karate stance?

                                          I understand the instinct to want to say Casey's on the way up with superior physical tools, and Waterson may be over-hyped, but after watching the past 3 fights of each, the style matchup does not really seem to favor either one of them too heavily. I'm having a hard time being too confident on either fighter.
                                          Comment
                                          • TPowell
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-21-08
                                            • 18842

                                            #56
                                            Jotko by decision at +205 for another unit. Parlay on jotko fgtd and Carlos Jr FNGTD at +113. A couple open parlays on that jotko fgtd as well
                                            Comment
                                            • Shagdogy
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-16-10
                                              • 3564

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by TPowell
                                              Jotko by decision at +205 for another unit. Parlay on jotko fgtd and Carlos Jr FNGTD at +113. A couple open parlays on that jotko fgtd as well
                                              Just starting to look into this fight. I think I’m higher on Tavares than most. Need to refresh my memory on Jotko.
                                              Comment
                                              • TPowell
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-21-08
                                                • 18842

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                Just starting to look into this fight. I think I’m higher on Tavares than most. Need to refresh my memory on Jotko.
                                                Tavares is a decent grinder but he doesn't have any pop in his punches and his ground game is pretty raw as well. He's pretty decent in the clinch making things ugly but his chin is a little shaky as well. Jotko is the more diverse striker with more power and his ground game is better as well. Only way Jotko loses here is if he gets sucked into a clinch war
                                                Comment
                                                • Shagdogy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 3564

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by TPowell
                                                  Tavares is a decent grinder but he doesn't have any pop in his punches and his ground game is pretty raw as well. He's pretty decent in the clinch making things ugly but his chin is a little shaky as well. Jotko is the more diverse striker with more power and his ground game is better as well. Only way Jotko loses here is if he gets sucked into a clinch war
                                                  Tavares ends up in the clinch due to his excellent TDD and getups. I agree Jotko will do better work in top position but I’m not convinced he’ll get it there. If he has to abandon TDs and clinch and just fight Tavares from range it is probably a 50/50 fight.

                                                  Plus I can’t unsee his lack of work ethic in the Branch fight where he regularly got pinned to the cage and didn’t fight his way out but just kept complaining to the ref to separate them.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TPowell
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 02-21-08
                                                    • 18842

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                    Tavares ends up in the clinch due to his excellent TDD and getups. I agree Jotko will do better work in top position but I’m not convinced he’ll get it there. If he has to abandon TDs and clinch and just fight Tavares from range it is probably a 50/50 fight.

                                                    Plus I can’t unsee his lack of work ethic in the Branch fight where he regularly got pinned to the cage and didn’t fight his way out but just kept complaining to the ref to separate them.
                                                    His tdd is great for sure. I don't see this fight hitting the ground but I see a clear edge for jotko in space striking
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Shagdogy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-16-10
                                                      • 3564

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by TPowell
                                                      His tdd is great for sure. I don't see this fight hitting the ground but I see a clear edge for jotko in space striking
                                                      Good luck. I don’t think I’m going to play this fight. I agree it’s likely to go to decision but at -145 I think the line is about right for Tavares. I think he can edge out the decision with his cardio playing a big role.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • turbozed
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-15-08
                                                        • 2435

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                        Scratch that... looks like this will be her first fight at 125. Weight cut something to watch.

                                                        Edit: Well... tapology says she's fought 135 throughout, but other articles say 125 is normal fight weight. I donno.
                                                        She's a natural 125'er.

                                                        Her Contender series fight was at 135 lbs but it was a week's notice, so she didn't have time to cut.

                                                        Also, her previous fights at Gladiator Challenge were at 135 lbs, but with that promotion people don't really cut weight. It's like a tough man (girl in this case) challenge and I doubt there's many people cutting weight for it.

                                                        Shana Dobson's striking looked absolutely spectacular in her last fight. This is why I agree that Mueller is probably going to have a lot of value. People see a KO artist with the kind of technique you don't see much in women in Dobson. We only see highlights of the fight, but within 1:30 of the 1st round Dobson was taken down, mounted, and finished by Roxanne Modafferi about 10 months ago. She's recently moved and changed camps to Team Lloyd Irvin within the last few months, and probably getting some better instruction, but I don't think this is enough time to shore up the grappling.

                                                        Mueller looked absurdly physical and strong in her Contender series fight. She slowed down a lot later in the fight but understandable given no camp. She's been training out of Alliance MMA with girls like Penne, RQ Penn, and Angela Hill, so I'd say she's going to be better prepared and go to her strengths. Mueller by her frame and control of Velasco looks to have a significant strength and physicality advantage in the clinch. If Modafferi (who is the very opposite of physical) can control Dobson in a dominant position, it seems more than likely Mueller will as well. Dobson's great performance against Beck actually makes it more likely that Mueller won't be playing Dobson's game for very long (luckily it appears that Mueller is durable). This is assuming her coaches aren't crazy.

                                                        It was pretty easy for Ariel Beck to push Dobson against the cage when the two locked up briefly in the fight. This seems like the obvious path to victory for Mueller and how I see this fight playing out. Ariel Beck was also a competent striker, and had a similar style to Dobson, so she played the exact outside fighting game that Dobson likes. Mueller with her durability and her ability to strike into a clinch looks to be able to close distance throughout the fight. There is a question mark on whether she can keep this up for 3 rounds but the same could be said about whether Dobson can as well.

                                                        Both girls are very new fighters and we will see a different version of them than we have seen before so that's a variable we won't be able to control. Maybe Dobson picked up some great takedown defense. So I don't think we can go very big on this fight either way. Mueller should be a bigger favorite so she's worth a bet here.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • turbozed
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-15-08
                                                          • 2435

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                          Good luck. I don’t think I’m going to play this fight. I agree it’s likely to go to decision but at -145 I think the line is about right for Tavares. I think he can edge out the decision with his cardio playing a big role.
                                                          I'm with you on this one. I've been 3-0 on Tavares' last fights, so wanted to bet him again here. Despite watching tape of Jotko pretty closely, I have a hard time figuring out if he's a well rounded guy with great striking, or whether those flashes of great striking he's shown are unrepresentative of his skill.

                                                          Jotko seems to rely on his athleticism to strike. He has no jab, and he's just jumping in and out exchanges. Sometimes it's wild hooks, sometimes it's a lead uppercut. It's surprising that this has worked so well because a well timed shot when he comes in might mean lights out. Jotko got KO'd recently against Hall when he was slow to retract a jab.

                                                          Tavares's striking has been coming along really well. Defensively responsible, keeps his hands high, and stays very composed. In his last fight against Leites, he showed a very nice snappy jab and a bit more power. He turned up the heat with aggression at times, but not enough to be reckless. He did a good job of catching Theodorou coming in despite his erratic movement. There's a good chance that Jotko jumps into a few of Tavares' jabs and right hands.

                                                          I don't think this fight goes to the ground very often, since Tavares' TDD has been great as of late even against stronger guys like Caio Maghalaes. If he does get taken down, he's back up immediately or hitting a switch like against Elias. But if Jotko can mix up the striking and takedowns, this might be something that makes him more successful than Tavares' last opponents.

                                                          Jotko is just too hard to read. He's got a good shot at winning if he fights at his best. Tavares is much more consistent so he's deservingly a favorite. At -140 or so, probably not much value in Tavares left though.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Shagdogy
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-16-10
                                                            • 3564

                                                            #64
                                                            Turbo we are seeing those two exactly the same way. I like it when that happens. I wish Mueller would hit dog money. She did briefly and I thought the line would keep going so I didn’t hit it. Only a small play for her but I think the clinch physicality is the difference there. And yeah, Beck was the perfect opponent for Dobson to make her look that good. Mueller will be a different test at least.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • thewitchinghour
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 10-30-17
                                                              • 116

                                                              #65
                                                              Putting everything I own on Marv... Dude is legit at a dog
                                                              Comment
                                                              • turbozed
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-15-08
                                                                • 2435

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                                Turbo we are seeing those two exactly the same way. I like it when that happens. I wish Mueller would hit dog money. She did briefly and I thought the line would keep going so I didn’t hit it. Only a small play for her but I think the clinch physicality is the difference there. And yeah, Beck was the perfect opponent for Dobson to make her look that good. Mueller will be a different test at least.
                                                                Dobson's fight against Montano is available on fight pass if you search her name and go to 41 minutes into the event.

                                                                Basically, Montano landed every takedown she tried (like 4 or 5). Dobson allowed Montano to get a crucifix in the 1st round, mount in the 2nd, and mount in the 3rd. Dobson looked pretty helpless against the cage.

                                                                I'm expecting Dobson to look better in the grappling department, but that fight was a year and a half ago and it looks like she was starting from 0.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MMANick
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-06-16
                                                                  • 4075

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Liking:

                                                                  Brazilian Cowboy
                                                                  Casey
                                                                  Salikhov
                                                                  Reis
                                                                  Burns(Waiting on PT hdcp)
                                                                  Mueller
                                                                  Lima
                                                                  Bhullar
                                                                  Lopez
                                                                  Sanders(Waiting on PT Hdcp, kind of like ITD)

                                                                  I think Boetsch and Vettori may be live dogs. And I honestly would probably go Gaethje w/ plus odds, I'll probably just stay away and enjoy that brawl.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • UncleChael
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-30-13
                                                                    • 3979

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Dustin Poirier can look like a world champion here, he could hit Justin with everything in the book. But Justin Gaethje will never stop coming. tell em Uncle Chael sent yah. In Uncle Chael we trust.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Shagdogy
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 06-16-10
                                                                      • 3564

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                                      I've seen a lot of people in love with Cortney Casey this week, but watching tape it's really hard to get a good handle on what Waterson really is.

                                                                      Have we ever seen Michelle Waterson plain out-boxed in the UFC? Torres probably had the best pure boxing success of anyone against Waterson, but for the first time in the UFC Waterson came out in an orthodox boxing stance and ditched her southpaw, sideways karate standup. Will she continue to stay in that stance for this fight vs. Casey?

                                                                      Have we ever seen Waterson beaten by a superior range game? Rose did it with the kick, GnP, and sub game. Torres did it by getting inside with speed and doing some good clinch work as well. Also, like I said before, this was Waterson's first fight in the orthodox boxing stance. Will she stay there or will she get back to the karate stance?

                                                                      I understand the instinct to want to say Casey's on the way up with superior physical tools, and Waterson may be over-hyped, but after watching the past 3 fights of each, the style matchup does not really seem to favor either one of them too heavily. I'm having a hard time being too confident on either fighter.
                                                                      Turbo have you put the keen WMMA eye on this one yet?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                                        • 83686

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by UncleChael
                                                                        Dustin Poirier can look like a world champion here, he could hit Justin with everything in the book. But Justin Gaethje will never stop coming. tell em Uncle Chael sent yah. In Uncle Chael we trust.
                                                                        Justin is tough as nails, fearless and does press forward.. I'm not writing him off in this fight.. We've seen Dustin Poirier get dropped before..



                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...