LFA 36: Simon vs. Zani

**turbozed** · 03-23-18, 09:37 PM

Christina Aguilera is fighting on this LFA card?!

**turbozed** · 03-23-18, 10:45 PM

Thanks for the tip Shagy. I did just a tiny bit of tape watching and research and I think that looks solid at +200 or better.

Faria has been fighting for over 9 years and he's only 26! Has an absurd left hook and some beautiful kicks. He landed a spinning hook kick to the body that dropped his opponent twice in a muay thai match. Definitely a talented striker.

Emmers is obviously going to come in here looking to wrestle. His striking defense isn't too great and he leaves a lot of openings on the feet. The reason why Faria has got a shot regardless is that Emmers doesn't have particularly good top control when he does get the takedowns. He's never on top for very long until the fight gets back to the feet.

I also like the fact that Faria appears to have gone 5 rounds with Soares who is a good submission grappler without being submitted. I haven't gotten a hold of that fight but Soares apparently won a grappling tournament in 2011 where he submitted a ton of dudes. So Faria was able to survive I'm guessing. So he's already had his loss to a grappler, and then with the 1.5 year layoff he's had time to train those weaknesses. Has he? Who knows! That's why he's an underdog I suppose.

**Shagdogy** · 03-23-18, 11:19 PM

Womp womp... Emmers came straight down the pipe with crisp, clean shots and picked Faria apart. Output, cardio, speed. Oh well. Worth a stab, but Emmers put on a very good performance.

**turbozed** · 03-23-18, 11:19 PM

Well did not expect Emmers to KO Faria lol

**Shagdogy** · 03-23-18, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Long layoff between UFC events. Did just a little bit of digging to look for some value on this card. I only have lines for the last 3 fights...

Aguilera vs. Seixas is pretty evenly lined, but Seixas is undefeated, looks jacked, and fights at Kings MMA. I would lean him but literally can't find any video so it's just supposing.

Simon vs. Zani: Simon is a beast wrestler with excellent motor. Just took out Chico Camus in a 5 rounder. I like him to win with his cardio, 5 round experience, and relentless wrestling. However, he is hittable and his lone loss came after he was dropped by a strike. Zani is a nice MT fighter with good standup. He's not long however, and I doubt his TDD (based off very little video evidence). Not enough here to play Simon -300 but I think he wins.

Emmers vs. Faria: Faria is a nice MT fighter with an advantage in power in this fight. Will likely be the more damaging, imposing fighter on the feet and we have seen Emmers lose to more physically imposing strikers before. I think Emmers is a good fighter, and could see him landing crisp jabs and a lot of TDs to outpoint Faria, but at +202 I took Faria to win 1u for kicks.

Faria +202, .5u. Only play.

The crisp, straight, speedy strikes proved to be the difference. Beat Faria to the punch with length and speed and staying inside of his left hook and landing first.

**turbozed** · 03-23-18, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Womp womp... Emmers came straight down the pipe with crisp, clean shots and picked Faria apart. Output, cardio, speed. Oh well. Worth a stab, but Emmers put on a very good performance.

Not sure why Faria didn't kick more. The one hard leg kick he threw hurt Emmers. I could understand not doing it in the first round because of the threat of TD, but from the 2nd on Faria was just hoping to land that left hook. There was a point at the end of the first round where he was stumbling and grimacing. Think he may have hurt his leg or something there.

Anyway, a weird gameplan by Faria and he used very few of his weapons to his detriment.

**Shagdogy** · 03-23-18, 11:40 PM

Wow. Ricky Simon continues to roll. He's gonna get that UFC call very soon. I hope they give him a decent, winnable matchup. He's a pretty exciting fighter.

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Not sure why Faria didn't kick more. The one hard leg kick he threw hurt Emmers. I could understand not doing it in the first round because of the threat of TD, but from the 2nd on Faria was just hoping to land that left hook. There was a point at the end of the first round where he was stumbling and grimacing. Think he may have hurt his leg or something there.

Anyway, a weird gameplan by Faria and he used very few of his weapons to his detriment.

Turbo! you have anything on Invicta tonight? I just got the lines.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Turbo! you have anything on Invicta tonight? I just got the lines.

I took Jandiroba +125 and Marks at +180 for small due to my shit limits.

Kali Robbins might be playable below -140.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-24-18, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Turbo! you have anything on Invicta tonight? I just got the lines.

Although this new oddsmaker has been so-so Dimes has been putting out lines for a bunch of different promotions lately.

**Thrilla** · 03-24-18, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Although this new oddsmaker has been so-so Dimes has been putting out lines for a bunch of different promotions lately.

Did they have One championship today?

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

I took Jandiroba +125 and Marks at +180 for small due to my shit limits.

Kali Robbins might be playable below -140.

Hmmm... took a look at a few. Rodriguez/Bennett should be a pretty clear victory for Rodriguez. I think she's a much more well rounded fighter with a very big advantage on the feet.

Inoue vs. Jandiroba: What do you see in Jandiroba other than very good BJJ? I can't find any fights of hers other than her most recent one, and in that fight her standup looks tentative and slow at best. Inoue has very good, fluid speed on the feet, and she is not a novice on the mat by any means. She has some excellent top control, armbar/triangle attacks, and scrambles. Obviously she should avoid most of the ground game here if possible, but her speed and comfort on the feet could make that possible.

Did you find any additional tape of Jandiroba than her last fight?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-24-18, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Did they have One championship today?

Yes

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 02:20 PM

Meh. Can't get myself behind anything on this card. Feels like a bit of wasted time capping these... not gonna play anything.

Can't trust Kali Robbins who has only fought out of round 1, once as a pro and doesn't have any impressive tape out there except a strong armbar finish after getting tuned up on feet.

Can't trust either fighter in Marks/Dudieva. Neither one has any momentum.

Can't find enough tape to distrust Jandiroba, though I do like Inoue. I think she has the better experience and more well rounded skillset and is worth an even money play, but I just can't find enough of Jandiroba to prove to myself she's not ready.

Can trust Karina Rodriguez but she's -270 and I don't feel like laying that juice in WMMA.

No bets for me. But just for fun, here is what I would have bet if I had to:

Inoue -106, 1.06u
Rodriguez -270, 2.7u
Robbins -133, 1u

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Hmmm... took a look at a few. Rodriguez/Bennett should be a pretty clear victory for Rodriguez. I think she's a much more well rounded fighter with a very big advantage on the feet.

Inoue vs. Jandiroba: What do you see in Jandiroba other than very good BJJ? I can't find any fights of hers other than her most recent one, and in that fight her standup looks tentative and slow at best. Inoue has very good, fluid speed on the feet, and she is not a novice on the mat by any means. She has some excellent top control, armbar/triangle attacks, and scrambles. Obviously she should avoid most of the ground game here if possible, but her speed and comfort on the feet could make that possible.

Did you find any additional tape of Jandiroba than her last fight?

There's about 3 or so fights of Jandiroba online. And then a couple of grappling matches. She's beat both Nunes and Claudia Gadelha in grappling matches. Mizuki is the far far superior striker, but feel like this is going to the ground often. Mizuki really doesn't care about keeping the fight standing, and Jandiroba has some of the best level change takedowns in that division. From the ground, Jandiroba's control is very good. Mizuki for all her skills is not very physical.

I capped this at around even. But with Mizuki only getting two weeks to prepare for a 5 rd fight, and her coming back from a year and a half of injuries, the + price is

Ended up going with Kali Robbins at -130 anyway. Was hoping for + odds, but Pearl doesn't seem like she wants to fight any more. Talked about retiring but convinced to continue by her boyfriend. The two are reasonably evenly matched. But I guess I'll pay a little bit more for the girl who wants to be there. Kali's cardio is a question mark, but Pearl doesn't really bring the fight to her opponent anyway.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 08:18 PM

Added on to Christina Marks at +220. This fight should be closer to even. Might be the best value on the card, but it's a gamble

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 09:52 PM

Should've stuck to my initial analysis and not bet Kali against Pearl.

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 09:56 PM

Not a good fight out of Robbins at all. It almost looks like she's never drilled striking.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Not a good fight out of Robbins at all. It almost looks like she's never drilled striking.

Yeah does not look like a girl that's capable of a 8 second KO win. Must've been a one in a million freak occurrence.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 10:16 PM

Marks just needed to avoid that big shot and she was on her way to possibly pulling that out. Dudieva was on her way to gassing.

Don't see shots that hard in WMMA often tho, wow.

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Yeah does not look like a girl that's capable of a 8 second KO win. Must've been a one in a million freak occurrence.

I watched it and it was ugly. Prob more of an indictment of the opponent than anything.

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Marks just needed to avoid that big shot and she was on her way to possibly pulling that out. Dudieva was on her way to gassing.

Don't see shots that hard in WMMA often tho, wow.

Yeah rare to see a girl get dropped straight on her butt from one punch like that. I agree Marks was on her way to a very narrow decision.

**Shagdogy** · 03-24-18, 10:50 PM

Damn... not paying very close attention but I'm starting to question these scorecards here in Invicta. I thought Karina Rodriguez won that fight, but she at least won round 3. Two scorecards 30-27 for Bennett and one 30-27 for Rodriguez? Wtf? That's why you don't lay -270 on stuff like this I guess. Glad I didn't bet tonight. I'd be 0-2 right now.

I also thought that an argument could have been made for Kali Robbins winning round 1, but Gonzalez got the win 30-27x2 and 30-26. Just not sure about this judging. Big deal when vast majority of these fights go to decision.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 11:06 PM

Very odd judging. If anyone deserved a 30-27 in that fight with Karina and Deanna (which nobody did) it was Karina controlling the striking and forcing Deanna to wall and stall. It's crazy how not just one but two judges can score that 30-27 for Deanna who did almost nothing but stall.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 11:17 PM

Got it 30-26 Jandiroba right now. Mizuki needs a finish to win this.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 11:31 PM

Jandiroba's positional control and passing ability is next level. It's not easy to control Mizuki like that who is as slick as it gets off her back.

Very impressive performance.

**turbozed** · 03-24-18, 11:43 PM

49-46 Mizuki probably is the worst scorecard in history LOL

**Shagdogy** · 03-25-18, 08:26 AM

Glad I didn't bet last night. Saved myself some money. And after watching those judges I don't think I'll be betting Invicta any time soon.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-25-18, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Marks just needed to avoid that big shot and she was on her way to possibly pulling that out. Dudieva was on her way to gassing.

Don't see shots that hard in WMMA often tho, wow.

She always is