UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya (March 03, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

Hmmmmm, is that mystery person you, Hugo? And as for Dodson, I suppose that power is there, but we haven't seen him put anyone away since Gamburyan in 2016 and Moraga (by doctor's stoppage) before that. I guess it all depends on the odds presented, but I don't want to miss out on a good ML price waiting for the handicap odds to open.

If you really like Munhoz then just take the ML before it could move. You guys might be right. I certainly seem to be in the minority on this one. I feel like Munhoz's forward pressure just marches him right into clean strikes. Good thing for him is he has a chin. I guess maybe the most relevant past fight for Dodson would be his loss to Lineker. Like Lineker, Munhoz will come forward, control the octagon, and throw 2-3 times the volume of Dodson. I think this fight will have a more clear winner than the Lineker fight because Munhoz pushes an even higher pace. If it comes down to octagon control and volume, then Munhoz definitely has the edge. The more I think about it, Dodson will need to have "moments" in oder to sway the judges, and Munhoz has proven very durable AND hard to take/keep down. Maybe Munhoz does have more paths to victory.

[Richard Clock]

If you really like Munhoz then just take the ML before it could move. You guys might be right. I certainly seem to be in the minority on this one. I feel like Munhoz's forward pressure just marches him right into clean strikes. Good thing for him is he has a chin. I guess maybe the most relevant past fight for Dodson would be his loss to Lineker. Like Lineker, Munhoz will come forward, control the octagon, and throw 2-3 times the volume of Dodson. I think this fight will have a more clear winner than the Lineker fight because Munhoz pushes an even higher pace. If it comes down to octagon control and volume, then Munhoz definitely has the edge. The more I think about it, Dodson will need to have "moments" in oder to sway the judges, and Munhoz has proven very durable AND hard to take/keep down. Maybe Munhoz does have more paths to victory.

I think he is a good enough grappler to earn some takedowns as well.

Edit: to be clear, I think this is more of a possibility in the late 2nd/3rd round, in the event Dodson tires

[Thrilla]

Looking at your avatar picture, I'm wondering what ever happen to the poster BJPENN?

He was a decent MMA capper from what I remember? That dude just vanished off the forum almost over night one day...

I guess it happens... Hope he didn't die or something..

I was absent you should know more especially since he is your rival. lol
He was on a road to 100k. I remember it was going south after a good start.
He had his own thread not much contributing to the main.
If he died, he lives through my avatar.
We could use him. Hope he returns.

[Shagdogy]

Man... O'Malley and Ware did as much fighting in their one fight as Soukhamthath has done in his entire UFC career. I understand that Souk is a very nice, technically sound striker with some good pop, but if he doesn't knock O'Malley out, what are the chances he wins a decision? He's 1-5 in decisions in his career and fights at one half the volume of O'Malley, maybe less.

O'Malley is very accurate with his strikes, incredibly varied, and when fresh, we've never seen him losing striking exchanges. The only time it has happened is after Ware applied a TON of pressure for a round and a half, and even then, O'Malley gained a second wind and came back nicely in the 3rd round. That's a very important bit of adversity that he has faced early in his career to help him going forward.

I know that Souk has been a big sharp play this whole week, and I understand it. O'Malley is a bit of a hype train. However, now that he's at plus money, I'm having a hard time not taking a stab at O'Malley. If I could have been one of the lucky few on Souk at +180 I would have, but now things have changed. As long as he's fresh I think O'Malley wins the cards and just needs to avoid the KO. I don't believe Souk pushes enough of a pace to gas O'Malley out so he's just looking to catch him with a big shot. If Souk struggles early, he could start chasing the home run, which would play even more into O'Malley's game. Finally, Souk's best strike is his left hook, which is not a very long strike. O'Malley has good length and does a real good job of using it. I think Souk will have to demonstrate power with longer reach than we've seen from him. I trust Souk's power and think he has a real good shot in this fight, but I don't think he will win if he doesn't KO. I'm looking at O'Malley ML and a small stab at O'Malley decision.

[Fence]

Man... O'Malley and Ware did as much fighting in their one fight as Soukhamthath has done in his entire UFC career. I understand that Souk is a very nice, technically sound striker with some good pop, but if he doesn't knock O'Malley out, what are the chances he wins a decision? He's 1-5 in decisions in his career and fights at one half the volume of O'Malley, maybe less.

O'Malley is very accurate with his strikes, incredibly varied, and when fresh, we've never seen him losing striking exchanges. The only time it has happened is after Ware applied a TON of pressure for a round and a half, and even then, O'Malley gained a second wind and came back nicely in the 3rd round. That's a very important bit of adversity that he has faced early in his career to help him going forward.

I know that Souk has been a big sharp play this whole week, and I understand it. O'Malley is a bit of a hype train. However, now that he's at plus money, I'm having a hard time not taking a stab at O'Malley. If I could have been one of the lucky few on Souk at +180 I would have, but now things have changed. As long as he's fresh I think O'Malley wins the cards and just needs to avoid the KO. I don't believe Souk pushes enough of a pace to gas O'Malley out so he's just looking to catch him with a big shot. If Souk struggles early, he could start chasing the home run, which would play even more into O'Malley's game. Finally, Souk's best strike is his left hook, which is not a very long strike. O'Malley has good length and does a real good job of using it. I think Souk will have to demonstrate power with longer reach than we've seen from him. I trust Souk's power and think he has a real good shot in this fight, but I don't think he will win if he doesn't KO. I'm looking at O'Malley ML and a small stab at O'Malley decision.

Agree with your assessment - although Malley is a little too raw and overhyped at this point in time; I think Malley's volume, potential and varied attack give him the edge. Not sold on Andre to be honest - the only reason why Andre would be the sharp play is the hype that his opponent is receiving and that doesn't mean the play is justified. Skill for skill neither fighter blows each other out of the water.

Malley's defense and fearless attack kind of scares me - he gets a little too sloppy and goes for a lot of risks - which is why he has a 78% kill rate. Wondering if he starts to tighten his defense up a bit? Wish he would have already shown signs of doing so and I'd jump on him in a heartbeat.

[Shagdogy]

Agree with your assessment - although Malley is a little too raw and overhyped at this point in time; I think Malley's volume, potential and varied attack give him the edge. Not sold on Andre to be honest - the only reason why Andre would be the sharp play is the hype that his opponent is receiving and that doesn't mean the play is justified. Skill for skill neither fighter blows each other out of the water.

Malley's defense and fearless attack kind of scares me - he gets a little too sloppy and goes for a lot of risks - which is why he has a 78% kill rate. Wondering if he starts to tighten his defense up a bit? Wish he would have already shown signs of doing so and I'd jump on him in a heartbeat.

O'Malley's poor defense gets brought up a lot... but I honestly don't see it. He uses his length pretty well and he cuts very good angles. I don't believe that he takes a lot of damage UNLESS he is gassed. But I don't think Souk is the type of fighter to gas him out, especially not after he came through the other side of Terrion Ware's pressure.

Just rewatched Souk vs. Sanders, and even though Souk won, he was still doing his trademark low volume counter approach. The right hand that he landed was a nice counter but Sanders darted in with his left hand and then came up in the pocket looking to land his right hand behind it. O'Malley generally doesn't stay there when he throws that first lead strike... he throws one and then cuts an angle away. He also uses a TON of feints to keep a counter striker like Souk from getting comfortable with his timing. Finally, O'Malley can score from distance with his kicks while Souk just plants his feet and waits for O'Malley to come into his range. I won a max bet on O'Malley last time out so I guess I owe him a little loyalty and see if he can win for me again. Although I won on Souk vs. Sanders too... hm.

[Shagdogy]

^ I do believe Souk is the better athlete... physically stronger. Will be interesting to see if either guy tries to play any ground game. O'Malley actually sealed his win over Ware with 3 late TDs in round 3.

[Fence]

I think Malley utilizes his own ground game more so than Souk but the stats presented currently could be limited since they only have a limited number of fights in the UFC combined.

Great observation on the angles regarding O'Malley's ability to use them - he seems to pass the eye test in the stand up when measuring against Souk; way more dynamic. Makes me wonder how he developed this style? What did he do or practice in his youth b/c I don't think there are any influences in his current camp which leads me to believe he is quite a creative fellow.

Didn't notice the athletic edge for Souk but trust your judgement; I actually thought O'Malley looked pretty quick for a tall, awkward, lanky douche.

I'm certainly leaning O'Malley as well...

[Sanity Check]

Alfred Khashakyan is Ronda Rousey and Edmund Tarverdyan's boy.

Sean O'Malley finished him in round 1. It was an impressive performance, I think even GSP would be impressed.

That's all I know.

[Shagdogy]

Alfred Khashakyan is Ronda Rousey and Edmund Tarverdyan's boy.

Sean O'Malley finished him in round 1. It was an impressive performance, I think even GSP would be impressed.

That's all I know.

Well damn. All in O'Malley then. Cheers.

[firekillex]

anybody whos associated with edmund tarvworstcoachyan is a cancer

[HurlSweatPants]

O'Malley's poor defense gets brought up a lot... but I honestly don't see it. He uses his length pretty well and he cuts very good angles. I don't believe that he takes a lot of damage UNLESS he is gassed. But I don't think Souk is the type of fighter to gas him out, especially not after he came through the other side of Terrion Ware's pressure.

Just rewatched Souk vs. Sanders, and even though Souk won, he was still doing his trademark low volume counter approach. The right hand that he landed was a nice counter but Sanders darted in with his left hand and then came up in the pocket looking to land his right hand behind it. O'Malley generally doesn't stay there when he throws that first lead strike... he throws one and then cuts an angle away. He also uses a TON of feints to keep a counter striker like Souk from getting comfortable with his timing. Finally, O'Malley can score from distance with his kicks while Souk just plants his feet and waits for O'Malley to come into his range. I won a max bet on O'Malley last time out so I guess I owe him a little loyalty and see if he can win for me again. Although I won on Souk vs. Sanders too... hm.

Shag, did you think it was an early stoppage in the sanders fight? Just curious, I watched it a couple of times and initially thought it was too soon, Sanders got rocked but by the time they got separated it looked like he had recovered.

I thought Sanders won round 1 pretty decisively, he just got caught in the pocket like you said. O Malley has more avenues to win this IMO, I just really wasn't all the impressed with Souks tape.

[Shagdogy]

Shag, did you think it was an early stoppage in the sanders fight? Just curious, I watched it a couple of times and initially thought it was too soon, Sanders got rocked but by the time they got separated it looked like he had recovered.

I thought Sanders won round 1 pretty decisively, he just got caught in the pocket like you said. O Malley has more avenues to win this IMO, I just really wasn't all the impressed with Souks tape.

I didn't have much of a problem with it. Once you saw him hop up very easily, without even using his hands, it looked like maybe he had recovered decently, but I don't fault the ref for stopping it when he did.

[Shagdogy]

anybody whos associated with edmund tarvworstcoachyan is a cancer

Best fight camp ever. "HEAD MOVEMENT! Noooooooooooo!"

[Hugo de Naranja]

Shag, did you think it was an early stoppage in the sanders fight? Just curious, I watched it a couple of times and initially thought it was too soon, Sanders got rocked but by the time they got separated it looked like he had recovered.

I thought Sanders won round 1 pretty decisively, he just got caught in the pocket like you said. O Malley has more avenues to win this IMO, I just really wasn't all the impressed with Souks tape.

I think Souk is a bit overrated. Dude loses the first round in EVERY fight and often needs a finish to win.

[TPowell]

I didn't have much of a problem with it. Once you saw him hop up very easily, without even using his hands, it looked like maybe he had recovered decently, but I don't fault the ref for stopping it when he did.

Sucks, Sanders is from about 30 mins from where I live. About the only high level MMA fighter anywhere close to here. He's really talented. He took off over a year after his first 2 UFC wins and I think he mentally checked out when he starting dating the WWE girl

[Richard Clock]

Viera/Cat is a really interesting matchup after watching the tape.

I lean more on the side of Cat being undervalued coming into this fight due to concerns about her mental stability after recent trauma and her inactivity. I tend to consider this more noise rather than meaningful information. The fact of the matter is that Zingano has been competitive, and in some cases has beaten decisively, high-level women's fighters consistently, while Viera is just not quite as battle-tested.

Cat has been given a hard time for her performance against Pena, but Pena is an excellent grappler and high-level BW in her own right, and Cat was at least competitive, winning the first round pretty clearly. Her most recent fights against Pena and Nunes were limited to grappling almost exclusively, and she generally showed excellent offensive wrestling and a real heavy top game that gave Nunes fits in particular. With that being said, she also has shown a concerning amount of inactivity when on her back, which a very good grappler in Viera can exploit. Whether Cat chooses to engage in grappling exchanges like she against Pena will be important. I tend to think Cat has a noticeably more diverse and effective striking game than Viera, but she seems to default to wanting to grapple. With that being said, Viera is awfully difficult to take down consistently due to her long frame, and underrated grappling strength as a judo black belt, so Cat may be forced to strike anyway. Viera throws hard and at a high volume, but doesn't really set up her strikes well and doesn't mix up her punches with kicks or knees in the fluid manner Cat does. I still think Viera can catch Cat with something standing, as Cat is a generally aggressive and therefore vulnerable defensively at times, but I tend to think Cat generally has an advantage here. I am curious if anyone has done research and what they think of this fight. I understand that with young fighters like Viera that we also have to project their growth from fight to fight, and that small samples of previous fights are pretty unreliable for inexperienced fighters, but I tend to think Cat's general success against high-level comp is meaningful, and we just haven't seen Viera get tested in the same way. I don't exactly see anything in Viera's tape that suggests she is a phenom, and may have gotten the benefit of some fortunate matchups against overrated opponents.

[TPowell]

I'll have to look at Zingano next. I've always thought she was the real 2nd best in that division behind Ronda back in the day

[Richard Clock]

I'll have to look at Zingano next. I've always thought she was the real 2nd best in that division behind Ronda back in the day

I still have to rewatch her fight against Miesha, but have generally came away impressed by her, especially considering she has faced a real murderer's row in that division. Viera is very talented, but still raw and inexperience, and hasn't truly been tested in the way Cat has. Viera's striking isn't all that good, and may be exploitable if Zingano chooses to engage. I think Zingano ML or ITD (both fighters are aggressive, and Cat has a high finish rate), but would like to see the odds move a little more before I consider either.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Full props are coming out now. Dropped a full 1u on Ortega Round 3 (+1450).

[Hugo de Naranja]

I doubt it gets better. I think it will refresh to around (-115) and close in the (-140) range

Back to (-115) exactly on refresh

[TPowell]

Ortega by SUB at +415 for me. Don't think he can finish this fight on the feet with Frankie. I'll play Edgar later and use the +415 as a hedge

[Richard Clock]

Back to (-115) exactly on refresh

Awesome call Hugo and thank you for the insight. I ended up betting the not Edgar by decision prop at +149 and that may end up being the best price for the prop historically.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also put a huge bet on Munhoz Submission (+770). 2.5u to win 19.25u. I get that Dodson has never been finished but this prop should NEVER be this big and he almost got tapped by Moraes in his last fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Awesome call Hugo and thank you for the insight. I ended up betting the not Edgar by decision prop at +149 and that may end up being the best price for the prop historically.

No problem. I think it will be.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ortega by SUB at +415 for me. Don't think he can finish this fight on the feet with Frankie. I'll play Edgar later and use the +415 as a hedge

Smart way to play it. I'm glad to see a few others using prop hedges.

[JIBBBY]

I was absent you should know more especially since he is your rival. lol
He was on a road to 100k. I remember it was going south after a good start.
He had his own thread not much contributing to the main.
If he died, he lives through my avatar.
We could use him. Hope he returns.

JoshKnows was my rival not BJPENN.. BJPENN was popping off a bit though, I just think he had a bad run and decided to leave the forum.. It happens...

I wouldn't mind BJPenn coming back either though..

[turbozed]

O'Malley's poor defense gets brought up a lot... but I honestly don't see it. He uses his length pretty well and he cuts very good angles. I don't believe that he takes a lot of damage UNLESS he is gassed. But I don't think Souk is the type of fighter to gas him out, especially not after he came through the other side of Terrion Ware's pressure.

Just rewatched Souk vs. Sanders, and even though Souk won, he was still doing his trademark low volume counter approach. The right hand that he landed was a nice counter but Sanders darted in with his left hand and then came up in the pocket looking to land his right hand behind it. O'Malley generally doesn't stay there when he throws that first lead strike... he throws one and then cuts an angle away. He also uses a TON of feints to keep a counter striker like Souk from getting comfortable with his timing. Finally, O'Malley can score from distance with his kicks while Souk just plants his feet and waits for O'Malley to come into his range. I won a max bet on O'Malley last time out so I guess I owe him a little loyalty and see if he can win for me again. Although I won on Souk vs. Sanders too... hm.

I had a chance to play Souk at +145 but I passed for all the reasons you stated. He hasn't shown yet that he can take the fight to his opponent. In the Sanders fight, there was the threat of the takedown, and I think Souk fought the way he should've, but those fights with Perez and Morales were frustrating (I had money on him against Perez). Until he shows better fight IQ, I can't back Souk again even against a hype train like O'Malley.

There are red flags on the other side though. O'Malley's defense is flashy sometimes and very poor sometimes. He keeps his hands way too low and does not retract his punches often. Luckily he has range and apparently has not fought any good counterstrikers. This should be the toughest test for him. He does at times have some nice head movement and does move around at angles. I don't think there's a coherence to this sort of defense though. It looks great and does cause some opponents to miss, but it wastes a lot of energy and can't be too effective if mediocre strikers can him him cleanly repeatedly. Also, his head movement means his trunk is stationary. Souk can really gas O'Malley out quicker and take away O'Malley's length advantages if he starts landing to the body from the start (obviously he's capable of some brutal work to the body like in the Perez fight). I can't trust Souk to implement any sort of strategy much less the correct one, so I'm going to have to pass on this one.

[Sanity Check]

Looking at Yana Kunitskaya's record she beat Tonya Evinger via armbar in their first meeting.

Then Evinger got the call overturned somehow. Anyone know what happened there?

JoshKnows was my rival not BJPENN.. BJPENN was popping off a bit though, I just think he had a bad run and decided to leave the forum.. It happens...

I wouldn't mind BJPenn coming back either though..

What ever happened to my arch nemesis, MirinQuads?

And the other guy who called himself the "God Emperor" of betting?

JoshKnows had a good run while he was active.

It seems the more colorful a personality someone has, the shorter their lifespan here will be. Sad.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also put a huge bet on Munhoz Submission (+770). 2.5u to win 19.25u. I get that Dodson has never been finished but this prop should NEVER be this big and he almost got tapped by Moraes in his last fight.

Down all the way to (+400). Timing is everything boys

[Shagdogy]

Viera/Cat is a really interesting matchup after watching the tape.

I lean more on the side of Cat being undervalued coming into this fight due to concerns about her mental stability after recent trauma and her inactivity. I tend to consider this more noise rather than meaningful information. The fact of the matter is that Zingano has been competitive, and in some cases has beaten decisively, high-level women's fighters consistently, while Viera is just not quite as battle-tested.

Cat has been given a hard time for her performance against Pena, but Pena is an excellent grappler and high-level BW in her own right, and Cat was at least competitive, winning the first round pretty clearly. Her most recent fights against Pena and Nunes were limited to grappling almost exclusively, and she generally showed excellent offensive wrestling and a real heavy top game that gave Nunes fits in particular. With that being said, she also has shown a concerning amount of inactivity when on her back, which a very good grappler in Viera can exploit. Whether Cat chooses to engage in grappling exchanges like she against Pena will be important. I tend to think Cat has a noticeably more diverse and effective striking game than Viera, but she seems to default to wanting to grapple. With that being said, Viera is awfully difficult to take down consistently due to her long frame, and underrated grappling strength as a judo black belt, so Cat may be forced to strike anyway. Viera throws hard and at a high volume, but doesn't really set up her strikes well and doesn't mix up her punches with kicks or knees in the fluid manner Cat does. I still think Viera can catch Cat with something standing, as Cat is a generally aggressive and therefore vulnerable defensively at times, but I tend to think Cat generally has an advantage here. I am curious if anyone has done research and what they think of this fight. I understand that with young fighters like Viera that we also have to project their growth from fight to fight, and that small samples of previous fights are pretty unreliable for inexperienced fighters, but I tend to think Cat's general success against high-level comp is meaningful, and we just haven't seen Viera get tested in the same way. I don't exactly see anything in Viera's tape that suggests she is a phenom, and may have gotten the benefit of some fortunate matchups against overrated opponents.

I placed a 2u bet on Vieira the other night in the middle of the night when I woke up with the baby... wasn't thinking straight. The line has flipped enough since that I can completely bet off of it and I probably will. Right now I'm playing the waiting game to see if it goes further and I can take home a small freebie.

As for your assessments of the two, I agree with some and disagree with others. I didn't watch a TON but I felt like there was a very clear edge in the striking department to Vieira. With her length and the the way she throws in combos she should find a home often if Cat wants to strike, since Cat is always darting in very squared up. However, I agree with you that Vieira doesn't seem to be a phenom. She's got that undefeated record but she doesn't jump off the screen to me. She seems vulnerable to Cat's offensive wrestling and I worry that it's Vieira who will be stuck on her back for too long if Cat is successful and able to keep up her pace from previous fights.

So all in all... tough fight to read. I don't like that I have 2u on Vieira since I'm not all that confident in either side. We'll see what I end up doing with it.

[Richard Clock]

I placed a 2u bet on Vieira the other night in the middle of the night when I woke up with the baby... wasn't thinking straight. The line has flipped enough since that I can completely bet off of it and I probably will. Right now I'm playing the waiting game to see if it goes further and I can take home a small freebie.

As for your assessments of the two, I agree with some and disagree with others. I didn't watch a TON but I felt like there was a very clear edge in the striking department to Vieira. With her length and the the way she throws in combos she should find a home often if Cat wants to strike, since Cat is always darting in very squared up. However, I agree with you that Vieira doesn't seem to be a phenom. She's got that undefeated record but she doesn't jump off the screen to me. She seems vulnerable to Cat's offensive wrestling and I worry that it's Vieira who will be stuck on her back for too long if Cat is successful and able to keep up her pace from previous fights.

So all in all... tough fight to read. I don't like that I have 2u on Vieira since I'm not all that confident in either side. We'll see what I end up doing with it.

Ended up watching Cat vs Tate and was surprised by how much worse her striking looked than I previously imagined. Tate is a limited striker herself and landed some good shots in the first round. I like that Cat mixes up her striking with knees and kicks but she really opens herself up to be countered. I still think Viera's striking is very rudimentary. I keep going back to the idea that Cat's resume of performances is meaningful and Viera just hasn't been tested at a high level. Cat up to +160 and seemingly rising...

[firekillex]

love zingano at +160

[Shagdogy]

Ended up watching Cat vs Tate and was surprised by how much worse her striking looked than I previously imagined. Tate is a limited striker herself and landed some good shots in the first round. I like that Cat mixes up her striking with knees and kicks but she really opens herself up to be countered. I still think Viera's striking is very rudimentary. I keep going back to the idea that Cat's resume of performances is meaningful and Viera just hasn't been tested at a high level. Cat up to +160 and seemingly rising...

I washed out my Vieira bet. I win .04u if Vieira wins. WOO!

[JIBBBY]

Looking at Yana Kunitskaya's record she beat Tonya Evinger via armbar in their first meeting.

Then Evinger got the call overturned somehow. Anyone know what happened there?



What ever happened to my arch nemesis, MirinQuads?

And the other guy who called himself the "God Emperor" of betting?

JoshKnows had a good run while he was active.

It seems the more colorful a personality someone has, the shorter their lifespan here will be. Sad.

Hot shots come and go... Hotshots sport the loudest voice.. If they pop off to hard and don't produce winners they leave or get banned.. Nature of the beast..

Miri and God Emperor MD followed Nunya to the other forum when I beat Nunya in the month long betting contest to see who leaves the forum for good, I didn't wanna play it but Nunya kept pressing me.. I said ok you asked for it.... They were all sheep that followed their king master capper Nunyabidness.....

I even forgot the forum name that they are all still posting on today?. I didn't see any really hard core MMA cappers out of that group like we have now posting.. It's all good..

Ancient history Sanity Check.. Fun times though. I had a blast back them messing around with those clowns.. Pushed me to cap my asss off and produce winners too.. Good old day on SBR.. ..