UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya (March 03, 2018)

[JIBBBY]

^^^ Lines move and adjust as well.. Obviously if the decision prop is very close odds to the Straight bet lines you take the Straight bet line.. It differs a little bit at -170 now..

The likely hood of Frankie Edgar finishing Brian Ortega are slim and none... That's that bottom line.. Ortega has a granite chin, undefeated, good on the ground.. VERY HARD TO FINISH.. Frankie Edgar is more of point fighter also these days..

1111 Edgar wins by 3 round decision

-134

VS

UFC 222 - Featherweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 3/3		1101 Brian Ortega		+150
11:30PM		1102 Frankie Edgar		-170

[Richard Clock]

The -134 prop has Edgar winning by decision 57.26% of the time, and the -170 ML has Edgar winning by decision or ITD 63% of the time. I don't see why you wouldn't just take the extra insurance that Edgar may finish Ortega, as the linesmakers project it as likely as you do. It seems like most people on here will default to a prop as if it inherently has more value, but in this case I actually see the ML has having slightly more value, assuming that I felt strongly that Frankie would win.

[Shagdogy]

The -134 prop has Edgar winning by decision 57.26% of the time, and the -170 ML has Edgar winning by decision or ITD 63% of the time. I don't see why you wouldn't just take the extra insurance that Edgar may finish Ortega, as the linesmakers project it as likely as you do. It seems like most people on here will default to a prop as if it inherently has more value, but in this case I actually see the ML has having slightly more value, assuming that I felt strongly that Frankie would win.

In this case I would always take the ML. However in the case of someone like Caraway, I would take by decision +225 over +145 ml.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Me watching Dollaway vs Herman, round 1: "Damn. CB has a very tight bodylock and top position. He'll be large at 185 next to Lombard. May be some value here.

Me watching round 2: "Holy hell he's gassed already? He landed two TDs and maintained top position the whole round. How is he so gassed. Uh oh."

Lots of questions around Dollaway here. How is his back? Is he in shape for 185? Cardio is a massive question. If he's in shape at 185 I think he is too much for Lombard, but he can't gas like he did in his last fight. Looking on twitter/Instagram he looks pretty lean already. If he looks good on the scale he's prob worth a look.

How likely is it that his cardio is worse than Lombard’s.

[Shagdogy]

How likely is it that his cardio is worse than Lombard’s.

Based on their most recent fights? Likely. If Dollaway of 185 from a few years back shows up... then not likely. I've looked into this fight a bit more and decided there's no chance I'm betting anything on it.

[Shagdogy]

Pedro Munhoz has the most insane guillotine of all time. The way he grabbed it vs. Doane is nuts. Go watch that if you haven't. However, it seems like he has one major flaw with it. He has absolutely no way to dictate the guillotine's availability other than to pressure his opponents, maybe hurt them with a big shot, and force a mistake. He can't grab it unless his opponents shoot a panic shot because they can't handle his pressure or are hurt. In Scoggins's case, he just slipped on a kick. Munhoz's guillotine will always be a major weapon but I have a hard time seeing him grab it in this fight since Dodson has a very strong chin and likely won't be rocked, and he has cardio for days and does a great job of controlling range so I doubt he wilts to Munhoz's pressure and shoots a panic shot. If Dodson fights a typical Dodson fight, then Munhoz is a bit too hittable that it's hard to see how he gains an edge on the cards.

[Sanity Check]

MMA MANIA predictions part 1
185 lbs.: C.B. Dollaway vs. Hector Lombard
From the end of 2014 through the first half of 2017, the MMA career of C.B. Dollaway (34-8-1) seemed like one disaster after another, as he went winless (0-3) with two knockout losses and suffered serious injury from an elevator mishap before UFC 203. He managed to return to action last July, picking up a decision over fellow veteran Ed Herman.

He will have five inches of height and reach on Hector Lombard (16-8).
Related
The elevator that almost killed CB Dollaway left ‘Doberman’ permanently damaged ahead of UFC 222


It feels like eons ago that Lombard was on a 25-fight unbeaten run and considered a genuine contender for the best Middleweight on the planet. He enters the cage this Saturday on a four-fight losing streak that includes stoppage losses to Neil Magny, Dan Henderson and Anthony Smith.
He owns 19 finishes via (technical) knockout and another seven by submission.
This is not an easy decision to make. Dollaway’s overeager striking offense looks like the perfect way to get demolished by a Lombard counter, but Lombard is on one hell of a crappy run. 185-pound division has thoroughly passed both men by — each is more likely to get sent to Queer Street a couple more times than to re-enter title contention.
Dollaway will be making that trip first. Lombard may have lost those fights, but he still hurt Magny and Henderson badly. The reach difference won’t mean much when it’s Dollaway looking to slug inside; therefore, expect Lombard to crunch him in the first few exchanges.
Prediction: Lombard via first-round knockout


Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 39-10

The MMA gym CB Dolloway trained out of "Power MMA" shut down in may of last year.

Not certain if that's good or bad for CB.

[Shagdogy]

The MMA gym CB Dolloway trained out of "Power MMA" shut down in may of last year.

Not certain if that's good or bad for CB.

Looks like he's been training with Bader... I donno if the camp is called "ApemanStrong" or if that's like a trainer facility? Not sure. There's a twitter video that shows them training in a pretty large facility with a lot of fighters. It seems Bader and Dollaway are the marquee guys. Dollaway is looking pretty lean compared to his 205 fight vs Herman so he may be in a bit better shape. Will be interested to see him on the scale. He has a massive size advantage over Lombard if he's in shape enough to use it.

[TPowell]

Added 0.25 units on the following. Think I'd Johnson can't get this fight to the ground, he will be in a tight kickboxing contest. Milstead is more of a brawler but Johnson has a solid chin and I think he could sneak it out if he can stuff the td

Milstead by decision at +850

[blazes_bff]

5 Dimes doesn't have full props out yet, but I'm playing Not Edgar ITD +149 for now.

[Shagdogy]

5 Dimes doesn't have full props out yet, but I'm playing Not Edgar ITD +149 for now.

I'd hammer that at plus money. Wish I had that prop.

[TPowell]

5 Dimes doesn't have full props out yet, but I'm playing Not Edgar ITD +149 for now.

Where in the world did you see this? This line opened at -900 on 5D

[Shagdogy]

Where in the world did you see this? This line opened at -900 on 5D

Seems more like it. Getting plus money for that is nuts.

[Richard Clock]

Seems more like it. Getting plus money for that is nuts.

I think he is referring to Not Edgar by decision at +149

[TPowell]

Ottow/Pyle FGTD looks tempting as well. Especially Ottow at +356 by DEC. He can hang with elite guys on the ground and Pyle doesn't have any power unless he lands a funky knee or spinning attack.

[TPowell]

To expand, Ottow isn't a power striker at all. He switches stances and throws his kicks and wants to keep from getting pressured. I don't think Pyle will pressure him too much so it should be a boring kickboxing contest with mostly non power shots being traded unless Ottow lands a head kick flush (doubtful) or Pyle lands some type of spinning attack like he did vs Spencer (doubtful and Ottow would probably wear it better). I don't think Pyle has the wrestling to get this fight to the ground more than 1-2 times and Ottow has survived for 4+ minutes below Moraes before. Can't see a finish coming from Pyle on top. Could Pyle sub Ottow from the bottom or Ottow pound Pyle out? All of Pyle's subs have been chokes and I would wager quite a few from top position and for sure against guys pre 2011 when guys weren't anywhere NEAR as well rounded as they are now. If Ottow got himself on top, MAYBE he could finish the fight but Pyle does have a black belt in BJJ so it isn't like he's in bad shape defending. To cover our bases, the most likely scenario here is Ottow finishing Pyle early before Pyle gets his rhythm on Ottow's stance switching. The only problem with that is that Ottow doesn't throw with a ton of power and especially early. If this fight goes a round, it goes all 3 for sure IMO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Edgar Decision is currently sitting at (-189)

[Richard Clock]

Edgar Decision is currently sitting at (-189)

Where do you think that prop goes? I am really tempted to jump on Not Edgar by Decision at +149, but if I can hold out for a better price I will. Seems like Edgar decision is the square play and the line can easily move towards -200s. Pretty funny how Edgar decision is at -189 and the ML at -175 on 5Dimes.

[blazes_bff]

Sorry, brain fart. Yes, I meant Edgar not by decision.

Watch them lines. Edgar ML -175, is better price than Edgar by decision -189.

[Shagdogy]

Edgar Decision is currently sitting at (-189)

How do they get off with these lines? Are so many people dumb enough to bet Edgar by dec without looking at the ML?

[JIBBBY]

The MMA gym CB Dolloway trained out of "Power MMA" shut down in may of last year.

Not certain if that's good or bad for CB.

I think Hector might explode on CB's chin.. CB's chin is nothing special either. I agree with the write up myself.. Ain't white boy day.. Only way to beat Hector is to take him into the later rounds and connect on his chin when he's being lazy and gassed... Not convinced CB can do that, there will be no wrestling advantage in this fight either..

[JIBBBY]

Edgar Decision is currently sitting at (-189)

Geez.. Ouch!!!!

[Shagdogy]

I think Hector might explode on CB's chin.. CB's chin is nothing special either. I agree with the write up myself.. Ain't white boy day.. Only way to beat Hector is to take him into the later rounds and connect on his chin when he's being lazy and gassed... Not convinced CB can do that, there will be no wrestling advantage in this fight either..

Yes after I watched a bit more of both I came to the same conclusion. Reluctantly I favor Lombard to get he TKO. However, the difference between Dollaway vs Herman most recently and Dollaway vs Bisping previously are ridiculous. It's like two different fighters, especially in the standup. The most recent Dollaway has no shot of KOing Lombard because his hands are waaaay too slow to land clean. However the previous Dollaway has heavy hands and was able to move at least decent enough to land a counter or two nice and heavy. Too many unknowns. I think Lombard still has more of his athleticism than CB and for that reason I favor him but I think it's best just not to bet this fight.

[JIBBBY]

Yes after I watched a bit more of both I came to the same conclusion. Reluctantly I favor Lombard to get he TKO. However, the difference between Dollaway vs Herman most recently and Dollaway vs Bisping previously are ridiculous. It's like two different fighters, especially in the standup. The most recent Dollaway has no shot of KOing Lombard because his hands are waaaay too slow to land clean. However the previous Dollaway has heavy hands and was able to move at least decent enough to land a counter or two nice and heavy. Too many unknowns. I think Lombard still has more of his athleticism than CB and for that reason I favor him but I think it's best just not to bet this fight.

Hector is getting up in age at 40 now and on a 4 fight losing streak... His chin could be cracked as well and we know he is cardio challenged at times.. This fight I would tread lightly and with caution which I will be doing....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Hector-Lombard-11292

[Hugo de Naranja]

Where do you think that prop goes? I am really tempted to jump on Not Edgar by Decision at +149, but if I can hold out for a better price I will. Seems like Edgar decision is the square play and the line can easily move towards -200s. Pretty funny how Edgar decision is at -189 and the ML at -175 on 5Dimes.

I doubt it gets better. I think it will refresh to around (-115) and close in the (-140) range

[Hugo de Naranja]

How do they get off with these lines? Are so many people dumb enough to bet Edgar by dec without looking at the ML?

Yes

[Hugo de Naranja]

Does anyone think that Munhoz is live against Dodson?

[Shagdogy]

Does anyone think that Munhoz is live against Dodson?

Been seeing a lot of people who like Munhoz as the dog here... but I'm having a hard time seeing it. Munhoz will march forward to the point of chasing Dodson around the cage, which plays into the exact the Dodson does. Move move move, dart in and land, and then get back out again. Dodson is very good at that, AND Munhoz is very hittable. As long as the fight stays on the feet it's hard to imagine that Munhoz lands more clean shots.

As for Munhoz's killer weapon, the guillotine, I posted earlier that I think he will have a very hard time setting it up in this fight. Dodson moves so well and Munhoz lacks TDs to the point it's hard to see how Munhoz will be able to grab and keep a hold of Dodson if Dodson is not a willing participant. Usually Munhoz lands the guillotine by rocking his opponent first, or pushing such a pace that they shoot an uncharacteristic TD just because they're looking for a break from constantly being pressured. Dodson has an excellent chin so I don't see him being rocked, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be looking for a rest to the point that he shoots a TD. As long as the fight is at space, i think Munhoz is just too hittable. It's not a very strong lean that I have, but seems to me like the line is about right.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Been seeing a lot of people who like Munhoz as the dog here... but I'm having a hard time seeing it. Munhoz will march forward to the point of chasing Dodson around the cage, which plays into the exact the Dodson does. Move move move, dart in and land, and then get back out again. Dodson is very good at that, AND Munhoz is very hittable. As long as the fight stays on the feet it's hard to imagine that Munhoz lands more clean shots.

As for Munhoz's killer weapon, the guillotine, I posted earlier that I think he will have a very hard time setting it up in this fight. Dodson moves so well and Munhoz lacks TDs to the point it's hard to see how Munhoz will be able to grab and keep a hold of Dodson if Dodson is not a willing participant. Usually Munhoz lands the guillotine by rocking his opponent first, or pushing such a pace that they shoot an uncharacteristic TD just because they're looking for a break from constantly being pressured. Dodson has an excellent chin so I don't see him being rocked, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be looking for a rest to the point that he shoots a TD. As long as the fight is at space, i think Munhoz is just too hittable. It's not a very strong lean that I have, but seems to me like the line is about right.

I like Munhoz here. I think that Guillotine setup is more versatile than you give him credit for. Perhaps more importantly, I think Munhoz will land far more volume on the feet. Although Dodson is the cleaner counterpuncher, he's not a great roundwinner and sometimes gives fights away due to inactivity. I think he is also lost some of his trademark speed in recent fights and that at 33 Years Old some of Dodson's technical deficiencies will become more apparent as that speed slips away. That's my two cents.

[Richard Clock]

I like Munhoz here. I think that Guillotine setup is more versatile than you give him credit for. Perhaps more importantly, I think Munhoz will land far more volume on the feet. Although Dodson is the cleaner counterpuncher, he's not a great roundwinner and sometimes gives fights away due to inactivity. I think he is also lost some of his trademark speed in recent fights and that at 33 Years Old some of Dodson's technical deficiencies will become more apparent as that speed slips away. That's my two cents.

I think there is something to this. Munhoz at age 31 having fought 17 times versus Dodson at age 33 having fought 28 times, including a few brutal wars against Mighty Mouse (twice) and Lineker. I was particularly impressed with Munhoz watching his debut fight against Asuncao , where he showed real craft and composure against one of the best BWs in the world. And that was in 2014, he has since developed a more effective striking game and is still an ox-strong and technically sound grappler.

I ended up taking some of Munhoz at +140 and a little on +155 for the Brazil card, and thinking maybe I should re-up again at +155 on 5D after getting some assurance from Hugo. Not sure where this line is headed, but I remember it moving up even more in Munhoz's favor before the fight was cancelled.

[Richard Clock]

I actually think the +3 1/2 hanidcap for Munhoz is good here if you are looking for a little more security. I have a hard time seeing Dodson putting Munhoz away and would be shocked if Munhoz can't steal a round or at least stay competitive enough for a split decision/draw.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think there is something to this. Munhoz at age 31 having fought 17 times versus Dodson at age 33 having fought 28 times, including a few brutal wars against Mighty Mouse (twice) and Lineker. I was particularly impressed with Munhoz watching his debut fight against Asuncao , where he showed real craft and composure against one of the best BWs in the world. And that was in 2014, he since developed any even more and effective striking game and is still an ox-strong and technically sound grappler.

I ended up taking some of Munhoz at +140 and a little on +155 for the Brazil card, and thinking maybe I should re-up again at +155 on 5D after getting some assurance from Hugo. Not sure where this line is headed, but I remember it moving up even more in Munhoz's favor before the fight was cancelled.

I know someone who bets big enough to move the lines who is planning to be big on Munhoz. Might be worth getting in soon.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I actually think the +3 1/2 hanidcap for Munhoz is good here if you are looking for a little more security. I have a hard time seeing Dodson putting Munhoz away and would be shocked if Munhoz can't steal a round or at least stay competitive enough for a split decision/draw.

I wouldn't be shocked if Dodson put Munhoz away. He's a very underrated puncher. I see Dodson as guy who will either win by Knockout or go to a Split Decision because of his low volume, counter focused style.

[Richard Clock]

I know someone who bets big enough to move the lines who is planning to be big on Munhoz. Might be worth getting in soon.

Hmmmmm, is that mystery person you, Hugo? And as for Dodson, I suppose that power is there, but we haven't seen him put anyone away since Gamburyan in 2016 and Moraga (by doctor's stoppage) before that. I guess it all depends on the odds presented, but I don't want to miss out on a good ML price waiting for the handicap odds to open.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hmmmmm, is that mystery person you, Hugo? And as for Dodson, I suppose that power is there, but we haven't seen him put anyone away since Gamburyan in 2016 and Moraga (by doctor's stoppage) before that. I guess it all depends on the odds presented, but I don't want to miss out on a good ML price waiting for the handicap odds to open.

It's not.