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It seems as though a lot of people actively root against Caraway, and naturally, maybe even sub-consciously, underestimate his skills and his chances of winning. Part of it is the way he fights; he actively tried to "ugly up" his fight against Asuncao, particularly with dirty boxing in the clinch, and executed the strategy admirably. The truth of the matter is Caraway seems to work really hard and smart in the gym, has excellent grappling skills and tremendous durability and cardio. Taking down an all-world grappler Asuncao twice in their fight is certainly a feather in his cap, and out-grappling and out-working an excellent grappler in his own right in Sterling was impressive. He is one of those guys who isn't always fun to bet on, as he often times eeks out decisions, but he is perhaps an even worse dude to bet against.
I am looking forward to digging a little more into Stamann as I was impressed by his performance against DuquesnoyComment -
Thinking about doing tape study on caraway in a bit. I haven't really done anything in depth on him since he hasn't fought in nearly two years. I may pass though just due to that and look at the ottow fight insteadComment -
I automatically hate the guy bc he gets to smash Meisha Tate on the daily, so there is that.
I watched some of his film yesterday, I will say that he has a pretty high fight IQ and looks to stick to a gameplan. He doesn't have big time power and tends to avoid heavy damage. His fight against Sterling was a borefest, but he stays active on the ground and I think that is where he really wants to be. He does got for better position over damage, so there is the possibly that if he does get it to the mat in a favorable position, that he stays busy enough to win boring rounds. Most of his fights either end in a decision, or sub, he hasn't been KOd or KO'd anyone since joining the UFC (9 fight I believe).Comment -
MacKenzie dern has missed cutting to 115 2/3 times so far and has missed badly at times. Something interesting before you start parlaying like crazyComment -
So now we have to start capping titty advantages/disadvantages???Comment -
From what Caraway is saying, he has had shoulder issues and hurt it against Rivera while training. Rivera didn't seem to buy it, I am sure he was a little salty, but in the interview I read, Caraway has pulled out of a fight with him more than once and Rivera thinks he is picking and choosing his fights by using injuries as an excuse. Of course this is all speculative, just what I have read. If you are interested in more noise, it appears he and Tate have split, and yes, Mackenzie Dern would definitely get it. Any day of the week.
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SBR had a glitch this morning.. Posted up 4 times in a row.. Edit and removing them below..Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-27-18, 03:43 PM.Comment -
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Tittie capping, hmmm?. Flat chested chicks have an advantage in muscle weight. Wonder how much bit titties weigh? 5 -8 pounds maybe?
If Mesha Tate didn't have those big ass heavy titties she might be champion today... She could have added muscle instead..
Ronda Rousey has no titties and she was champion at the time instead.. Case closed!!!
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A lot of female athletes have smaller cup sizes. It comes with having lower body fat percentages, less soft fatty tissue = smaller booobs?
PS - Miesha's aren't real. Miesha might have looked healthier and hotter before she got her implants. The same with Brittany Palmer.Comment -
Good luck to those playing this Pyle fight. The situation screams fade him but the price just isn't there and ottow isn't a finisher at all. I may throw some on ottow by decision or something after I finish tape on him. The shots that Pyle got put out by lately are ridiculous. That overhand from Garcia was so flush and he's an animal physically. Then Mina hit him with that flying knee. Not your typical shots that put him away.Comment -
Tate is the real MVPTittie capping, hmmm?. Flat chested chicks have an advantage in muscle weight. Wonder how much bit titties weigh? 5 -8 pounds maybe?
If Mesha Tate didn't have those big ass heavy titties she might be champion today... She could have added muscle instead..
Ronda Rousey has no titties and she was champion at the time instead.. Case closed!!!
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After watching more tape I think I'll lay off this fight altogether. This is a good matchup and Caraway and Stamann will both likely be putting strength vs strength thanks to their gameplans. Trying to tell whose strength will win out is tough, but I do expect they'll both be fighting the type of fight that they prefer.
I think this fight goes the distance. I feel very confident in that. No value in the line though. Maybe a parlay piece.Comment -
Not sure Frankie will ever put himself anywhere near a position to get choked. His bread and butter is the simple 1-2 in, out. Always light on his feet and moving. Did catch him talking knockout talk somewhere I believe. Thats pretty unlikely as well. Almost laughable actually, coming from him. At the end of the day it's gonna be Edgar by decision over a frustrated Ortega. -160 doesn't seem unreasonable one bit. Will parlay with the over.
UOTE=JIBBBY;27617222]So th
is got next.. Bring it!!!!
Can't rule out a Brian Ortega submission.. I kinda am liking Frankie Edgar though in this one but it's no lock that's for sure.. Brian Ortega is the real deal.... He's got the granite chin and can bang with the best of them and he's very good with his Jits and subs as well...
Frankie is gonna have a fight on his hands that's for sure..
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[/QUOTE]Not sure Frankie will ever put himself anywhere near a position to get choked. His bread and butter is the simple 1-2 in, out. Always light on his feet and moving. Did catch him talking knockout talk somewhere I believe. Thats pretty unlikely as well. Almost laughable actually, coming from him. At the end of the day it's gonna be Edgar by decision over a frustrated Ortega. -160 doesn't seem unreasonable one bit. Will parlay with the over.
UOTE=JIBBBY;27617222]So th
is got next.. Bring it!!!!
Can't rule out a Brian Ortega submission.. I kinda am liking Frankie Edgar though in this one but it's no lock that's for sure.. Brian Ortega is the real deal.... He's got the granite chin and can bang with the best of them and he's very good with his Jits and subs as well...
Frankie is gonna have a fight on his hands that's for sure..
I can't argue your MMA logic and that's why I said in several posts above that Frankie Edgar can and might win by decision on points.
Ortega is undefeated and you gotta consider that as well... That brings mental confidence and a sense of invincibility in many undefeated fighters at this point 6 fights deep into the UFC...
Stick and move standing probably is the best game for Frankie but remember Ortega is improving standing fight by fight, no fear with his granite chin and is always game in that last round if he is down on the cards..
Lastly Brian Ortega probably knows all this already and won't start off slow.. Another thing to think about...
Frankie by decision and the odds reflect this too -
May wanna consider this though..1111 Edgar wins by 3 round decision -134
1105 Ortega wins inside distance +240 Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-27-18, 11:12 PM.Comment -
I can't argue your MMA logic and that's why I said in several posts above that Frankie Edgar can and might win by decision on points.
Ortega is undefeated and you gotta consider that as well... That brings mental confidence and a sense of invincibility in many undefeated fighters at this point 6 fights deep into the UFC...
Stick and move standing probably is the best game for Frankie but remember Ortega is improving standing fight by fight, no fear with his granite chin and is always game in that last round if he is down on the cards..
Lastly Brian Ortega probably knows all this already and won't start off slow.. Another thing to think about...
Frankie by decision and the odds reflect this too -
May wanna consider this though..1111 Edgar wins by 3 round decision -134
[/QUOTE]1105 Ortega wins inside distance +240
These seem like the two most likely outcomes.Comment -
Well Hugo there is not an Ortega by sub prop out yet so I had post up ITD at +240 instead..
Most likely finishes these are as you already know in this fight....Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-28-18, 03:45 AM.Comment -
Tittie capping, hmmm?. Flat chested chicks have an advantage in muscle weight. Wonder how much bit titties weigh? 5 -8 pounds maybe?
If Mesha Tate didn't have those big ass heavy titties she might be champion today... She could have added muscle instead..
Ronda Rousey has no titties and she was champion at the time instead.. Case closed!!!
Say that again? Come again?
New theory?
"Always bet on small
and ass in Womens MMA."
Jibbbylicious!Comment -
Looking at your avatar picture, I'm wondering what ever happen to the poster BJPENN?
He was a decent MMA capper from what I remember? That dude just vanished off the forum almost over night one day...
I guess it happens... Hope he didn't die or something..Comment -
We gotta get some WMMA chatter going here. I dropped 2u on Vieira in the middle of the night last night when I was up with the baby and half delirious and now I'm wondering if it was a good play.
Vieira obviously has an advantage on the feet, but it's hard to see how this fight stays out of the clinch/grappling. Zingano has some pretty solid TDs, although Vieira is quite large and did pretty well to defend the TD against McMann other than very early in round 1. Both of these fighters do good work from top position but struggle on their backs. Landing one or two TDs could be the key to this fight. Watching back Zingano/Pena has me a bit concerned about my Vieira bet since Zingano landed multiple TDs with ease and was only taken down herself by more explosive athletic bursts than I've seen Vieira employ. Pena was also able to sweep to top position to win round 2 which was key, but I haven't seen sweeps like that from Vieira.
Anyone else got a read here?Comment -
Haven't done any research on this fight other than watching both fight in the past, but I think this fight not going this distance at plus odds intrigues me. And if I have a particular lean on either woman during film watching, I think ITD prop at +300s odds is even more intriguing. Again, I hope to dig into this more in the next few days. Working full time stinks!Comment -
I’m a huge Frankie fan, but I think Ortega takes this. Frankie exposes his head too much when doing take downs. Ortega by sub is my prediction.Comment -
Me watching Dollaway vs Herman, round 1: "Damn. CB has a very tight bodylock and top position. He'll be large at 185 next to Lombard. May be some value here.
Me watching round 2: "Holy hell he's gassed already? He landed two TDs and maintained top position the whole round. How is he so gassed. Uh oh."
Lots of questions around Dollaway here. How is his back? Is he in shape for 185? Cardio is a massive question. If he's in shape at 185 I think he is too much for Lombard, but he can't gas like he did in his last fight. Looking on twitter/Instagram he looks pretty lean already. If he looks good on the scale he's prob worth a look.Comment -
MMA MANIA predictions part 1
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115 lbs.: Ashley Yoder vs. Mackenzie Dern
Ashley Yoder (5-3) went 1-1 on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, but earned a call to enter the Octagon after a submission win in Invicta. She has yet to taste UFC victory, though, losing decisions to Justine Kish and Angela Hill.
“The Spider Monkey” owns four professional wins by armbar, three in the first round and two in a combined 1:17.
A multiple-time world champion in both gi- and no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Mackenzie Dern (5-0) made the transition to mixed martial arts (MMA) in 2016 under the Legacy banner, eventually moving to Invicta for her last two fights. Though perhaps better known for her issues making weight, she’s nonetheless picked up three submissions in her five victories, including an Imanari choke of current UFC competitor Montana De La Rosa.
She will give up four inches of height to the 5’7” Yoder.
Related
Mackenzie Dern says Ronda Rousey was ‘never an inspiration,’ aims to be bigger
I am genuinely more interested in the fight between Dern and the scale than between Dern and Yoder. Yoder is almost exclusively a grappler and is going up against a woman who’s beaten Gabi Garcia, won ADCC, and earned more world-level medals than Yoder has MMA fights. The question is whether Dern can keep her weight in check and get the finish.
Barring a complete meltdown the likes of which would have Sara McMann wincing, Dern should utterly dominate this fight, wrapping up a submission if and when she wants it.
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Midnight Mania! Watch Mackenzie Dern drop, choke out Mandy Polk at LFA 24
Prediction: Dern via first-round submission
155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush vs. Alexander Hernandez
A knockout loss to Ramsey Nijem in his second UFC fight didn’t stop Beneil Dariush (14-3-1)from winning seven of his next eight bouts, including consecutive victories over prospects James Vick and Radhid Magomedov. “Benny” enters the cage winless in his last two, however, having suffered a shocking knockout loss to Edson Barboza and settled for a draw with Evan Dunham after gassing out late.
Six of his nine stoppage victories have come by submission.
San Antonio’s Alexander Hernandez (8-1) has not tasted defeat since a split decision in his third professional fight. His current streak includes three consecutive finishes, including one in RFA and another in LFA.
He steps in for the injured Bobby Green on a week’s notice.
I cannot for the life of me find full footage of any recent Hernandez fights, not even on the seedier websites that give my adblock a hernia. All I’ve really got are short highlights from his last two fights, which show a quick, athletic, well-rounded fighter who’s comfortable from either stance and can finish fights on the feet and the mat.
They do not, however, show anything that could really trouble Dariush, especially not on short notice. Dariush’s ground game is top-tier for the division, he has underrated power in his kicks and punches, and his gas tank is generally solid when he doesn’t punch himself out like against Dunham. He holds his own in all areas of the game, ultimately wearing down Hernandez with low kicks en route to a late finish.
Prediction: Dariush via third-round submission
135 lbs.: John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz
This was supposed to happen on the main card of UFC Fight Night 125 before Pedro Munhoz (15-2) missed weight. Luckily, I was on main card duty that week, so I can copy-paste my pick with zero ethical conflicts.
Related
John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz pulled from UFC Belem following weight-cutting fiasco
I can’t look at John Dodson (19-9) and not see lost potential, even with his clear love for and dedication to the sport. His game has just never evolved from hurling left hands in new and exciting ways. He utterly lacks any kind of offense from his lead hand and his output fluctuates strangely, leading to unnecessarily close and dull fights.
See: Wineland, Eddie.
Luckily, though, I don’t see him challenging for the title with the Big Three (Dominick Cruz, T.J. Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt) and Marlon Moraes in the way, he’s still well-equipped to beat the majority of the division, including “The Young Punisher.”
Munhoz has an absolute bear trap of a guillotine and is tougher than a $2 steak in hockey pads, but his wrestling has not developed as it should, forcing him to use pressure striking to provoke opponents into ill-advised takedown attempts. While he has enough power and aggression to make this work more often than not, he can look worryingly mortal when the choke isn’t there.
Unless he can become the first person to dent Dodson’s chin, it won’t be there. Take Munhoz’s ground game out of the equation and you have a solid-but-not-spectacular bruiser, the sort who Dodson loves leading on merry, painful chases around the Octagon. Dodson’s freakish athleticism, speed and reflexes keep him on his feet as he potshots the advancing Munhoz for three full rounds.
Prediction: Dodson via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: C.B. Dollaway vs. Hector Lombard
From the end of 2014 through the first half of 2017, the MMA career of C.B. Dollaway (34-8-1) seemed like one disaster after another, as he went winless (0-3) with two knockout losses and suffered serious injury from an elevator mishap before UFC 203. He managed to return to action last July, picking up a decision over fellow veteran Ed Herman.
He will have five inches of height and reach on Hector Lombard (16-8).
Related
The elevator that almost killed CB Dollaway left ‘Doberman’ permanently damaged ahead of UFC 222
It feels like eons ago that Lombard was on a 25-fight unbeaten run and considered a genuine contender for the best Middleweight on the planet. He enters the cage this Saturday on a four-fight losing streak that includes stoppage losses to Neil Magny, Dan Henderson and Anthony Smith.
He owns 19 finishes via (technical) knockout and another seven by submission.
This is not an easy decision to make. Dollaway’s overeager striking offense looks like the perfect way to get demolished by a Lombard counter, but Lombard is on one hell of a crappy run. 185-pound division has thoroughly passed both men by — each is more likely to get sent to Queer Street a couple more times than to re-enter title contention.
Dollaway will be making that trip first. Lombard may have lost those fights, but he still hurt Magny and Henderson badly. The reach difference won’t mean much when it’s Dollaway looking to slug inside; therefore, expect Lombard to crunch him in the first few exchanges.
Prediction: Lombard via first-round knockout
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 39-10
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Caraway And Staman should be where Omalley and Souk is.....either Cara or Stamann would starch either one of em....1 round styleComment -
I can't argue your MMA logic and that's why I said in several posts above that Frankie Edgar can and might win by decision on points.
Ortega is undefeated and you gotta consider that as well... That brings mental confidence and a sense of invincibility in many undefeated fighters at this point 6 fights deep into the UFC...
Stick and move standing probably is the best game for Frankie but remember Ortega is improving standing fight by fight, no fear with his granite chin and is always game in that last round if he is down on the cards..
Lastly Brian Ortega probably knows all this already and won't start off slow.. Another thing to think about...
Frankie by decision and the odds reflect this too -
May wanna consider this though..1111 Edgar wins by 3 round decision -134
[/QUOTE]1105 Ortega wins inside distance +240
It makes very little sense to me why anyone would bet on Edgar by decision when you can get the ML at a similar price. Obviously, Edgar's most likely outcome is a UD vs Ortega. Everyone, including the betting public and linesmaker knows this, so I don't see an edge in betting that particular prop versus the ML. A common misconception I noticed with bettors is thinking props have an inherent value that the ML doesn't have because you are getting a more favorable price (-120 ML vs +120 by DEC, for example), which is not at all the case.
I remember Nunya Bidness, an older poster on SBR, used to discuss parlays in a similar light, that you are not getting a "discount" or reduced odds on a chalky bet if you throw it in a parlay. The implied value of a bet thrown in a parlay is the same value you will get if you bet it straight up. Props and parlays are not "magic", and you are often making your bets more EV- if you don't understand this.Comment
