[Vitooch]

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6/8/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Scott Jorgensen -210* vs Eddie Wineland

2 Team Parlay
6/8/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Scott Jorgensen -210* vs Eddie Wineland
6/8/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1210 Not Pyle inside distance -310* vs Pyle wins inside distance


6/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1109 Silva wins inside distance +125* vs Not Silva inside distance

2 Team Parlay
				Win	6/2/12 8:30pm NBA Basketball 714 Oklahoma City Thunder -180* vs San Antonio Spurs
				Pending	6/8/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Demetrious Johnson -145* vs Ian McCall

2 Team Parlay
				Win	6/1/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1010 Not Ellenberger inside distance -159* vs Ellenberger wins inside distance
				Pending	6/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1109 Silva wins inside distance +125* vs Not Silva inside distance

[gabe]

lol i love brody, he's a very good friend.

[Vitooch]

Was expecting this line to open in the -300's for Jorg. As great as Jorg's wrestling is, I'm not sure if anyone in the 135 pound division can handle Renan Barao's explosiveness and athleticism. I think Jorg has the wrestling nd ever-improving BJJ to control Wineland for three rounds. As far as I'm concerned Wineland's only chance of winning is catching Jorg early. Wineland does not have the TDD to stuff Jorg's elite wrestling, and he does not have the BJJ to do anything significant off his back. Also, Jorg has a serious chin and toughness, and the desire to prove himself that he is still a force in the 135 pound division after a disappointing loss against Renan.

[Vitooch]

lol i love brody, he's a very good friend.

Hope he's doing better. Not sure exactly when his incident occurred. I've become a big fan after listening to him on JRE.

[gabe]

Hope he's doing better. Not sure exactly when his incident occurred. I've become a big fan after listening to him on JRE.

Yeah, he's doing well. On meds, but doing well!

[Vitooch]

I seem to be on the much less popular side of this fight but I really like Demetrious Johnson in a rematch against McCall. First, my thoughts on the first fight...Demetrious Johnson seems to have a speed and overall striking advantage. According, to FightMetric, he landed more significant strikes, with leg kicks being his most effective strike. Also, McCall seemed to have a wrestling advantage. With that being said, Johnson is still a very good wrestler with excellent durability, whether it be the ability to get the fight back standing if he is on his back or his sub defense. I'm not sure how much tape Johnson watched of McCall before their first fight, or if he even expected McCall's wrestling to be as good as it was. Now that Johnson knows what McCall is capable of in the wrestling department, we may see a much closer grappling match this time around.

With this fighters being so closely matched, this fight can be determined by whom has the mental edge. While McCall chose to pump up the crowd and showboat after the fight, Johnson seemed more focused and seemed to take the fight and fighting in general more seriously. You can also see this in pre-fight and post-fight interviews. While this disparity in their approach to fighting may not have made a difference in their first fight, it could very well be the difference in who is better prepared for their rematch. Johnson knows he has adjustments to make, and his natural athleticism and technical wrestling background will allow him to make those adjustments much easier. McCall, on the other hand thought he absolutely won the fight, and doesn't seem nearly as urgent to make those same adjustments.

[Beelzebubzy]

Wineland stopped fabers takedowns

[Vitooch]

He got a takedown by round 2

[Grabaka]

[Vitooch]

UFC on FX 3! I got a nice dog play that I'm very very confident in. Love all my plays...Jorgensen with the superior wrestling and jitz, Silva with the explosiveness and killer hands, Johnson with the superior striking and mental edge, but there's one fighter flying under the radar for me. This play is going to be my baby, my pride and joy, my sweet, sweet pootie tang. We will see how the line movement looks tomorrow. Stay tuned.

[Vitooch]

2 Team Parlay

6/8/12 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Jared Papazian -155*vs Dustin Pague

6/8/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Henry Martinez -195* vs Bernardo Magalhaes

Seems like a popular parlay so I will bite. Martinez looked very good against the much bigger Riddle, and Magalhaes got beat up pretty badly by Means. Martinez enters this fight with a striking advantage....crisper combos, and a huge disparity in punching power. Although Martinez was not able to showcase his solid wrestling against the towering Riddle, he will utilize it on Friday, whether it be offensively to work ground and pound or as a defensive mechanism to keep the fight standing. In the end, I believe Martinez will do what Means came very close to doing in his fight with Bernardo: catch him standing and finish him with brutal ground and pound. Plus, Martinez is a Jackson fighter which is always a huge plus for me in terms of capping.

As a few cappers have already articulated for months now, (yes you gabe), Papa looked very good in his debut against one of the most promising fighters in the 135 lb division in Mike Easton. Papa has excellent footwork, solid muay thai, good judo, and BJJ. From what I remember, Jared had trouble taking the super-athlete Easton down, but I did see Jared work some impressive-looking trips from the clinch that I think he may utilize against Pague. As for Pague, I am surprised he got another chance in the UFC after getting blasted by John Albert. Pague has never blown me away, a decent overall fighter with a solid submission game, but I don't see that as much of a factor here. Frankly, Pague is lucky to have given another chance. he seems like the quintessential one and done TUF reject. (And I say reject with the utmost respect). So, a very promising, well-rounded, tough as nails prospect or a TUF reject? I will asolutely take Papa at -155.

If a prop for Martinez ITD is available I will add this prop. As for Papa, a win by decision is a very real possibility, so I may just add more on him straight up depending on how my other bets are going.

Going to do more research tomorrow on Seth/Benoist, but that fight may be too close to cap. Also will be looking at Grice/Garcia, possibly a few other prelim fights, but I probably won't go overboard.

[gabe]

good stuff

[Vitooch]

This is it boys, tail me and follow me to the promise land!!! Boy I hope this play doesn't tank.

6/8/12 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1951 Sean Pierson +135* vs Jake Hecht

Write-up later

[Vaughany]

Tough fight to call so cant knock going with the underdog. Think a lot are thinking Hecht is a better wrestler which Im not so sure about

[The HOFF]

Good luck Vitooch. I try to stay away from the fights where two scrubs are fighting for their job.

[gabe]

That fight is a toss up but I lean Hecht -- probably won't bet it.

[gabe]

If Hecht wins, it's gonna be by knockout. Otherwise Pierson will likely take a decision.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Tough fight to call so cant knock going with the underdog. Think a lot are thinking Hecht is a better wrestler which Im not so sure about

I think he's just a little bit of a better striker too, he at least has a formal accomplishment in a striking discipline being a giolden gloves champ (which imo is a somewhat overrated accomplishement, not to discredit those champs) so I favor him striking too, especially considering perison's striking looked horrendous against dhk and ellenberger, and beating up riddle on the feet is nothing to boast about imo... But yea can't knock you for taking the dog in what is a closer fight than the odds reflect. I was liking hect but can't pay that price, think its gonna be damn close and way too hard to breakdown with confidence, Hect by early tko or decision by being a bit better everywhere me thinks... GL man, props if it hits that's a balzy dog to put money on!!

[PunisherIND]

........................................ .......................................

6/8/12 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1951 Sean Pierson +135* vs Jake Hecht

[Vaughany]

lol

[Vitooch]

I think Pierson has the tools to beat Hecht. I won't come here and say Pierson doesn't have holes in his game, because he clearly does. With that being said, I think these holes have been accentuated due to the level of competition he has faced. Not many fighters can take a punch from Ellenberger, and can handle the impressive athleticism, length, and grappling strength of the Stungun. Based on what we've seen of Hecht, he certainly would have succumbed to the same fate as Pierson did. I acknowledge that Pierson's standup looks sloppy at times, but what looked like sloppy standup against his most recent opponents, who happened to be some of the best WW's in the world, was much sharper looking against the likes of lower level competition, mainly Matt Riddle. While Jake Hecht's standup is certainly solid, I think Pierson will be able to handle Hecht's boxing, perhaps even catch him like he did Riddle. What is safe to say is that Pierson will not have to worry about dealing with the crushing power of an Ellenberger or the length and ranginess of a Stungun.

Where I think Pierson will truly succeed is the grappling department. Some claim that Hecht will have the wrestling advantage, but I think Pierson's impressive TDD and overall grappling chops will prove the difference. One of the most impressive moments of Pierson in the octagon was the scramble he won against Stungun in the first round of their fight. Stungun attempted a beautiful judo throw that Pierson masterfully reversed to side control and managed to get the very strong grappler Stungun's back. He also wasn't afraid to pin Stungun against the cage with a strong body lock. While he didn't have a ton of success taking Stungun down, very few fighters do. Once again, I'm having a very difficult time seeing Hecht have any success grappling with Stungun, or being able to handle Stungun's range and length standing.

Hecht has proven to be very grappling deficient in his first two fights . He was taken down quite easily and controlled on the ground in the first roundagainst Attonito . I'm having an incredibly tough time agreeing with those who claim Hecht has a wrestling advantage against Pierson when Hecht's wrestling was so terrible against Rich, and when Pierson's grappling has proven to be one of his greatest skills. Hecht really gave his backers nothing to show for against Waldburger when he was completely schooled during a scramble on the ground. While Pierson doesn't have the submission game of a Waldburger, he has found success in scramble situations against Riddle (he completely controlled Riddle on top after rocking him in the first round), and the first round against Stungun, who is the most talented grappler either fighter has faced.

Hecht may have a technical striking advantage in this matchup, but his unimpressive grappling in his first two fights concerns me against a very capable grappler in Pierson. After two very tough fights for Pierson against a couple of the best WW's in the world, Pierson understands what is a stake and will grind and hopefully scramble his way to victory. Both fighters have had shaky moments, but Pierson is the only fighter of the two that seems to have moments that have impressed me. I believe his strong grappling and octagon control will lead him toward an ugly unanimous decision where he will manage to achieve enough dominant positions, whether it be against the cage or on top. This is a gutsy play but I think it will hit!

[Vitooch]

A monkey is pissing on my +135 play ? Punisher you didn't do that to BigDay he picked Pat Schilling

[PunisherIND]

A monkey is pissing on my +135 play ? Punisher you didn't do that to BigDay he picked Pat Schilling

I didn't realize there was a pissing monkey until yesterday.

[gabe]

Where IS Big Day? No wrestlers on this card he favors?? I was hoping he'd be on Jorgensen... He was on him against Barao, but not Wineland? Uh oh!!!!

[fosho14]

surprised big day isn't all over brenneman. That seems to be the tastiest dog on the menu tomorrow and a pure wrestler no less lol.

[Vitooch]

Thinking he got kicked out of town by Player's Talk guys after bombing on another pick

[Oblivian]

I'm with you on everything but Silva.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Pierson is up to +150. Shouldn't this dictate that you POUND the line again?

[Vaughany]

Pound Pound Poundddddddd

[DeFactoCrippler]

Pound Pound Poundddddddd

[Vaughany]

lol

[DeFactoCrippler]

Pierson +164 on reduced juice.

[Vitooch]

Florian : "Jake Hecht looked great against Attonito"
Anik: "Pierson, a world class wrestler".

These ******* guys

[Vaughany]

Pierson's probably got tht round...Junkie gave it him 10-9

[Vaughany]

Second to Pierson me thinks