UFC on FOX: Stephens vs. Emmett (February 24, 2018)

**brooks85** · 02-24-18, 05:54 PM

that's an awesome stat for stephens, 17 knockdowns and only one behind the spider

**turbozed** · 02-24-18, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Prachnio just marched directly into that. Dig into his regional video and you see hands low, chin high, forward motion. Tailor made for Alvey. Glad I finally won one. Wish I actually had confidence to bet dogs bigger. I guess it's a good thing I don't. I woulda been on Doane bigger too. Yuck.

I had 1.4u on Doane and 1.25 on Alvey. With these underdog cards, you either lose big or win big. I think it's a psychological block when you see a big + number you end up betting low, even when there is a lot of value. My biggest bets are all around even odds bets for some reason but, if you think about it, there's a bigger edge with underdog fights like this.

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 05:56 PM

Let's go Jouban next...

**Shagdogy** · 02-24-18, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

I had 1.4u on Doane and 1.25 on Alvey. With these underdog cards, you either lose big or win big. I think it's a psychological block when you see a big + number you end up betting low, even when there is a lot of value. My biggest bets are all around even odds bets for some reason but, if you think about it, there's a bigger edge with underdog fights like this.

My record on underdogs was not good last year, and I was only slightly profitable on them overall. Based on my past performance picking dogs, I really shouldn't bet them with high confidence.

**Shagdogy** · 02-24-18, 06:00 PM

^ Also, agreed that betting favs better than -200 seems to be the sweet spot.

**valueguyman** · 02-24-18, 06:02 PM

stoked that Alvey hit, I had +21 units on him with 4 units going towards the TKO. That other forum (Sherdog) was so wrong everyone was on shelton/doane/morales with no Alvey love, Tpowell called it first with the TKO . all the best

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

^ Also, agreed that betting favs better than -200 seems to be the sweet spot.

If you parlay them maybe.. Nothing sweet about laying down -200 odds or higher on any bet ever IMO.. I guess it's nice if they land though.. The dog hits or huge prop hits for +odds are always the best and sweetest.....

One really good prop hit can make up for 3 fight losses on any event.... Now that sweat Shag!!!

..

**turbozed** · 02-24-18, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

^ Also, agreed that betting favs better than -200 seems to be the sweet spot.

Yah from the +150 to +225 range seems to hit more often than implied odds suggest IMO. Likewise, -160 to -250 favorites always seem a bit overvalued.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

If you parlay them maybe.. Nothing sweet about laying down -200 odds or higher on any bet ever IMO... The dog hits or huge prop hits for +odds is the always best...

One really good prop hit can make up for 3 fight losses on any event.... Now that sweat Shag!!!

..

I'm with Jibby on the prop love.

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:06 PM

Fox sports 2 is covering this.. Channel 618 direct tv if anyone is searching..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:09 PM

I think someone is getting KO'ed here

**BIGDAY** · 02-24-18, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Fox sports 2 is covering this.. Channel 618 direct tv if anyone is searching..

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:14 PM

Jouban could have finished B in that first round if he didn't get kicked in the junk.. Jouban working that leg..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:14 PM

Live Hedge:
Goes Distance (+180) 1u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Jouban could have finished B in that first round if he didn't get kicked in the junk.. Jouban working that leg..

Saunders is about to take his sixth career R2 KO/TKO loss

**Winning oasis** · 02-24-18, 06:15 PM

Saunders about to go down.

**Winning oasis** · 02-24-18, 06:16 PM

Hes not getting out of this round.

**Shagdogy** · 02-24-18, 06:16 PM

Fun fight here... I'm stepping away. Family stuff the rest of the night. Gonna have to catch up with the damage from the "Disney Demolition" later on DVR. Good luck everyone!

**turbozed** · 02-24-18, 06:17 PM

Let's hope for a friendly kickboxing match. Took a stab at fight goes distance at +200.

Not looking good tho lol

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Saunders is about to take his sixth career R2 KO/TKO loss

And there it is!

**Winning oasis** · 02-24-18, 06:17 PM

OUT. Don't know how he was standing that long.

**BIGDAY** · 02-24-18, 06:18 PM

Oh fawwwwwwwwwwk!

K the fawk O

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:19 PM

Jouban kicked his ass literally.. That was a beating.. Killa B got stung in that fight.. OUCH!!! His leg might be broken.. Will have a headache for sure.. Tough guy though I'll give him that much..

I'll take that...

**KingofKings** · 02-24-18, 06:20 PM

What a KO!

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:21 PM

Chick fights next.. Boring!!!

Hill by decision next..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:24 PM

I like how Jouban set up with his KO Blow by feeling the range with his lead hand and following through with the Overhand Left.

**nyrider88** · 02-24-18, 06:26 PM

gonna try moroz next, hill is dry iced cold 1-4 in last 5.

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I like how Jouban set up with his KO Blow by feeling the range with his lead hand and following through with the Overhand Left.

He set it up by crushing that lead leg of Sanders. Well elbows as well...

**TPowell** · 02-24-18, 06:26 PM

Excellent back to back results for me. Had a half unit on Alvey TKO and 1 unit on Jouban ITD+ 1 more on the ML in a parlay. A little better than even so far on the card but the Shelton/Perez OVER gives me a 2 unit parlay to close with Perry ML at -102 combined and another 2 unit parlay with Perry ML to close at +118. COME ON MIKE!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:27 PM

Added:
Stephens Scorecards = No Action (-136) 3.4u to win 2.5u

Stephens is so hard to finish. Shocked this dropped to bettable odds.

**turbozed** · 02-24-18, 06:27 PM

Damn Hugo, your night is going as good as it gets! Keep that train rollin!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-24-18, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Damn Hugo, your night is going as good as it gets! Keep that train rollin!

Thanks man. Off to a great start to far.

**BIGDAY** · 02-24-18, 06:29 PM

Whats the next winner? Don't have a play... Should I???

**JIBBBY** · 02-24-18, 06:30 PM

Those elbows bust you up, just hit your other hand with your elbow. It's all bone.. I'm surprised more faces aren't broken from hard elbow strikes to be honest.. Elbow strikes on face are brutal when cleanly landed and with power.. Jon Jones and Brandon Vera can tell you that...

**TPowell** · 02-24-18, 06:31 PM

McMann -3.5 is finally out I see. +185 is a steal. If she wins this fight, she covers that easily.

McMann -3.5 (+185) for 0.75 units. Not on Bet MMA since the window has closed to make plays