UFC on FOX: Stephens vs. Emmett (February 24, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

If anyone has been able to find video of Kelleher vs Arce in his last fight before UFC, link pleeeeaaase. As far as I can tell it's not out there. That would be an excellent fight to see to help cap this Barao fight. What we've seen of Kelleher in the UFC so far doesn't answer all the questions. We know he has an excellent guillotine but I wonder how the first two rounds with Arce were going before he snatched it.

[ken10]

In my opinion we’ve seen all we need to see in his three ufc fights.

He first fought a very lackadaisical Iuri Alcantara who pretty much gave up the guillotine by diving in his guard even though he was winning the stand up. That’s where kellehers “deadly guillotine” came up.

Against Marlon, he showed very very amateur grappling. He let marlon grab a hold of a Kimura lock and he tried to trip marlon and ended up getting armbarred. He could not take down Marlon.

Third fight he dominated Damian for the most part but was getting tagged a bunch. Hands down, wide punches. Again grappling looked very shitty. Damian was just worse. Kelleher even had a guillotine lock at one point n couldn’t finish. Doesn’t seem like his guillotine is that good after all.

Barao is still a good striker and his takedown defense Is still good. He’s even shown to be a willing grappler vs Stephens. He has a good chin, ate bombs from Stephens. Only way he loses is off a lazy takedown like his teammate alcantara.

[Shagdogy]

In my opinion we’ve seen all we need to see in his three ufc fights.

He first fought a very lackadaisical Iuri Alcantara who pretty much gave up the guillotine by diving in his guard even though he was winning the stand up. That’s where kellehers “deadly guillotine” came up.

Against Marlon, he showed very very amateur grappling. He let marlon grab a hold of a Kimura lock and he tried to trip marlon and ended up getting armbarred. He could not take down Marlon.

Third fight he dominated Damian for the most part but was getting tagged a bunch. Hands down, wide punches. Again grappling looked very shitty. Damian was just worse. Kelleher even had a guillotine lock at one point n couldn’t finish. Doesn’t seem like his guillotine is that good after all.

Barao is still a good striker and his takedown defense Is still good. He’s even shown to be a willing grappler vs Stephens. He has a good chin, ate bombs from Stephens. Only way he loses is off a lazy takedown like his teammate alcantara.

Sorry Ken, but I disagree. I think you're downplaying his guillotine a bit. It's not just a sub threat but he's very good at using it to sweep and he consistently got the better of Stasiak this way. Granted, Barao is not Stasiak.

This is why I want to see the Arce fight. I think Arce is a good fighter and seeing 2.5 rounds of those guys going at it could clear some things up.

[JIBBBY]

MMA mania write ups in...




155 lbs.: Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Gilbert Burns’ (12-2) world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu and developing striking carried him to victory in his first three UFC appearances, but weren’t enough to save him from losses to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazeres in Brazil. His sole 2017 performance was perhaps his most impressive yet, however, as he destroyed Canada’s Jason Saggo with one punch in Pittsburgh.
“Durinho” owns seven wins by submission and another four via (technical) knockout.
Though he came up short against Chad Laprise in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations,” Olivier Aubin-Mercier (10-2) emerged as a standout contender with wins in six of his next seven fights. His current three-fight streak includes submissions of Thibault Gouti and Drew Dober, plus a split decision over Tony Martin.
Seven of the eight submission wins that “The Quebec Kid” has secured have come by rear-naked choke.
Now this is an interesting fight, pitting top-tier jiu-jitsu against top-tier Judo. Despite Burns’ struggles against the human-shaped bulldozer that is Michel Prazeres, I’m leaning his way, as he looks like the more complete and dangerous striker. It’s also worth remembering that Aubin-Mercier’s last defeat came against an excellent jiu-jitsu artist in Carlos Diego Ferreira, who has not shown Burns’ takedown skills or punching power.
Aubin-Mercier can play backpack against the majority of the division, but not against someone this skilled on the mat. Unable to engage in his ideal style of fight, he’ll be forced to trade strikes with a faster and more powerful kickboxer, ultimately losing the decision.
Prediction: Burns via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Marcin Prachnio vs. Sam Alvey

A world-class Kyokushin karate standout, Marcin Prachnio (13-2) enters the Octagon on an eight-fight win streak, including six first-round knockouts. The streak includes a split decision over jiu-jitsu standout Leandro Ataides and an 83-second finish of 36-fight veteran Gilberto Galvao.
All of his 11 stoppage wins have come in the first round
Consecutive losses to Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou didn’t discourage Sam Alvey (31-10), as he went on to win five of his next six bouts. He stumbled a bit last time, though, losing a snoozer to the debuting Ramazan Emeev.
“Smilin’” steps in for the injured Jake Collier on less than two months’ notice.
Prachnio’s Kyokushin base is extremely visible ... and not always in a good way. While he’s lethal at short range, mixing up tight punches and surprisingly compact high kicks, his footwork is all over the place and he tends to wing his punches when launched from anywhere outside the pocket. If Alvey had any sort of consistency, I’d pick him to win here, as Prachnio leaves countering opportunities you could drive a truck through.
Unfortunately, Alvey is Alvey, cripplingly boring and painfully reticent to actually unleash the crazy power in his hands. Prachnio, if nothing else, is extremely busy, which ought to carry him past the ever-gunshy Alvey. Though an Alvey haymaker out of nowhere is always in the cards, Prachnio’s volume and aggression should win the day.
Prediction: Prachnio via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Rani Yahyavs. Russell Doane

More than 15 years after his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) debut, Rani Yahya (24-9) remains a standout Bantamweight, losing just once in his last seven fights. In his most recent bout, he put a loss to Joe Soto behind him with a rapid submission of Enrique Briones in the latter’s native Mexico.
He owns 18 professional victories via submission.
A perfect (2-0) UFC start, including a submission of jiu-jitsu ace Leandro Issa, gave way to four consecutive losses for Russell Doane (15-7), including first-round submissions against Pedro Munhoz and Mirsad Bektic. Last June, he came up big with his back against the wall by knocking out Korean striker Kwan Ho Kwak in Singapore.
He will have an inch of height and three inches of reach on Yahya.
Predicting a Yahya fight has gotten easier over the years. He’s going to spend the first round on top, then gas out halfway through the second before surviving the third. His opponents just have to survive, wear him out, and then deal as much damage as humanly possible in the final round.
Unless, of course, he manages to submit them. Unfortunately for Doane, he’s going to get submitted.
Doane has just one non-controversial win in his last six fights, got submitted by two of his last three opponents, isn’t a great wrestler, and doesn’t hit hard enough to turn Yahya’s lights out before he gets wrangled to the mat. Yahya locks up submission No. 19 before too terribly long.
Prediction: Yahya by first-round submission

125 lbs.: Alex Perez vs. Eric Shelton

Alex Perez (19-4) — the former Tachi Palace Fights Flyweight champion — put together a four-fight win streak to earn a spot on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series,” where he submitted Kevin Gray in less than three minutes. His UFC debut was equally successful, tapping Filipino prospect C.J. de Tomas with a lovely anaconda choke.
His only losses since 2012 came against TUF 24 competitor Adam Antolin and UFC veteran Jared Papazian.
Eric Shelton (11-4) and the judges had a bit of an adversarial relationship in his ZUFFA career, as he fell to Tim Elliott by majority decision on TUF 24 before dropping split decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Jarred Brooks in his first two UFC appearances. He finally earned his first promotional victory in Nov. 2017 with a decision over former pro boxer Jenel Lausa in Sydney.
His finishes are split 5:2 between submissions and (technical ) knockouts.
An interesting factoid: Shelton actually has a loss to Gray back in 2015. Since then, though, he’s consistently held his own against world-class opposition, which gives him the edge in what looks like a very evenly-matched fight. Perez presents a similar skillset, combining quality combination striking with strong submission grappling.
The key difference, like I said, is that we know Shelton’s game works against the best. We don’t know if Perez’s does. Shelton edges out the striking and takedown battles to win a competitive decision.
Prediction: Shelton via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Manny Bermudez vs. Albert Morales

New England’s top prospect for quite some time, Manny Bermudez (10-0) has not tasted defeat since his second amateur fight back in 2012. All eight of his professional finishes have come in the first round, including seven submissions.
He stands three inches shorter than Albert Morales (7-3-1) at 5’6.”
Morales’ UFC career has been consistently entertaining, but not terribly consistent, as he is just 1-3-1 in five octagon appearances. He enters the cage on the heels of consecutive losses to Brett Johns and Benito Lopez, although most of the media scored the latter fight for Morales.
“The Warrior” has submitted three professional opponents and knocked out another two.
Bermudez’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu is absolutely sick. The man is a straight-up terror on the mat and has a Brian Ortega-esque ability to lock up front chokes in the clinch. The question is whether he has the wrestling to actually apply that jiu-jitsu — his controversial victory against Saul Almeida suggests that’s not necessarily the case. Morales, despite his ugly UFC record, is game as hell and capable of at least holding his own wherever the fight goes, meaning Bermudez is in trouble if he can’t impose his will.
That said, Morales isn’t a standout wrestler and the fight is basically over the moment Bermudez gets him to the mat. There’s also every reason to believe that Bermudez has improved considerably since that Almeida fight, as he is just 23. Though Morales has the skillset to play spoiler, I’m thinking Bermudez grounds him early and twists him into an unpleasant pretzel not long after.
Prediction: Bermudez via first-round submission


135 lbs.: Renan Barao vs. Brian Kelleher

We are closing in on four years since Renan Barao (34-5) fell to T.J. Dillashaw in what remains one of the biggest numerical upsets in mixed martial arts (MMA) history. He is just 2-3 since that fateful night, most recently taking an absolute beating from Aljamain Sterling in Anaheim.
Though the two are the same height, he will have four inches of reach on Brian Kelleher (18-8).
“Boom,” sufferer of similar weight cut issues, submitted Iuri Alcantara in his UFC debut in a sizeable upset, only to be upset in return by Marlon Vera less than two months later. Undeterred, he returned to action against Poland’s Damian Stasiak and handed him a whooping in hostile territory, earning “Fight of the Night” in the process.
He has submitted eight professional opponents and knocked out another seven.
Back in the early ‘10s, when Barao could rehydrate with an IV and showed real confidence, this fight would have been a wash. He’d have jabbed and leg-kicked Kelleher to death on his way to 30-27s across the board.
Now? It’s impossible to have any faith in him. His fight IQ has looked utterly woeful in recent fights, leading him to try to slug it out with Jeremy Stephens and neglect his own grappling against Sterling until it was too late to matter. In addition, there’s no telling how his gas tank will hold up after another brutal cut to 135 pounds. Kelleher, on the other hand, has the motor on him to stay in Barao’s face all night and wear him down.
Barao just doesn’t seem to have the mental strength to compete at the highest level anymore. Kelleher outworks him to a narrow decision victory.
Prediction: Kelleher via split decision

135 lbs.: Sara McMann vs. Marion Reneau

Sara McMann (11-4) emerged from her 1-3 skid on the warpath, running over Jessica Eye, Alexis Davis and Gina Mazany with ease. Most expected her to do the same to Ketlen Vieira, but the Brazilian came back to submit her late in the second round in Sept. 2017.
She will give up two inches of reach to Marion Reneau (8-3-1).
“The Belizean Bruiser” is still going strong at age 40, arguably deserving the win in each of her last four fights. The two decisions she did get saw her stop Milana Dudieve and Talita Bernardo in the third round to up her career finish total to seven.
Five of those finishes came via strikes, including one in just 10 seconds.
McMann has the skills to crack the division’s Top 5 and never leave: Heavy hands, a developing submission game, and nigh-unmatched wrestling. I really thought she’d put it all together, only for her to collapse against Vieira and get submitted like old times.
She has to be firing on all cylinders here. If she gets lax in the striking, Reneau has the power to turn her lights out, and the Belizean’s guard is a genuine hazard should McMann get lax on top. Still, despite myself, I’ve got faith in McMann. She may not have enough time left in the cage to fully realize her potential, but even half of that potential is enough to carry her to victory here. Strong top control wins the day.
Prediction: McMann via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Maryna Moroz vs. Angela Hill

Maryna Moroz (8-2) announced her arrival into UFC with a 90-second armbar of Joanne Calderwood, and though she came up short against Valerie Letourneau her next time out, she bounced back with wins over Cristina Stanciu and Danielle Taylor. She couldn’t quite do the same against Carla Esparza, however, and struggled against the former champion’s takedowns en route to a decision loss.
She was supposed to fight Jamie Moyle last month, but the latter suffered an injury just days before the event.
Angela Hill (7-4) won and defended the Invicta Strawweight title before putting on a Fight of the Night with Jéssica Andrade in her UFC return. After getting back in the win column with a decision over Ashley Yoder, she threw down with American Top Team standout Nina Ansaroff and lost another competitive decision.
She will give up four inches of height and three inches of reach to Moroz.
Moroz’s key issue is that she has two solid aspects of her game, her boxing and her submissions, and zero ways to connect them. Her fights go where her opponents want them to. This time around, that means she’ll be trading with a better Muay Thai stylist despite having the skills to overwhelm her on the mat.
Moroz’s height and length definitely work in her favor, but Hill has the skills to get inside and go to work. Unless Moroz can hit a flying armbar, expect Hill to work her over at close range with punches and kicks for 15 competitive minutes.
Prediction: Hill via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Alan Jouban vs. Ben Saunders

Alan Jouban (15-6) got off to a strong 6-2 start in his UFC career, including three “Fight of the Night” bonuses and victories over Belal Muhammad and Mike Perry. He has since been on the wrong end of bonus-winning stoppages from Gunnar Nelson and Niko Price, the latter of whom needed just 104 seconds to put away Jouban with strikes.
“Brahma” has earned nine professional wins by (technical) knockout and one by submission to punches.
Despite three consecutive wins and UFC’s first-ever omoplata submission, Ben Saunders’ (21-8-2) second UFC run came to an end after a knockout loss to Patrick Cote. He came right back after submission Jacob Volkmann in 17 seconds, however, and defeated Court McGee before suffering a knockout loss to Peter Sobotta in Sweden.
He stands two inches taller than Jouban and will have four inches of both reach and leg reach on him.
There are two ways this fight could go: Either these two go at each other and turn the lights out in a hurry, or get overly protective after their recent knockout losses and stare at each other for 15 minutes. I’m thinking the latter, as both had been stopped before and came back aggressively.
Which is bad news for Saunders.
“Killa B” is one of the most entertaining grapplers in UFC and has heart for days, but his chin just isn’t there anymore. It seems like he gets rattled by every clean punch he takes and his defense has never been great. Worse, his ability to take it to the mat is limited to pulling guard against a defensive wrestler of Jouban’s caliber. While both are vulnerable enough to make this intriguing, expect Jouban to find a home for his left hand before long.
Prediction: Jouban via first-round knockout

[turbozed]

Burns OAM fight has been cancelled.

Apparently Burns was way too fat and they didn't think he should even attempt cutting.

[TPowell]

Jouban itd and hill by Dec are 2 props I think are much better than 50-50. Interested to see where they come out at

[JIBBBY]

Jouban itd and hill by Dec are 2 props I think are much better than 50-50. Interested to see where they come out at

I like Jouban too.. Killer B hasn't impressed me since he was in Bellator.. He's faced a bunch of bums in the UFC also whom aren't even fighting in the sport anymore...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ben-Saunders-10339

[Shagdogy]

I hate myself for this, but I think the value is on Sam Alvey in fight. Prachnio looks like he has some speed and power in his hands, but lacks sound technique, so you get this guy winging punches from terrible. Prachnio lives off getting the finish with his hands, but if he can't land the KO blow, I'm not sure how he will adjust, and Alvey certainly has a strong chin. At better than 2-1, Alvey may be worth a stab... and I just threw up a little in my mouth.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I hate myself for this, but I think the value is on Sam Alvey in fight. Prachnio looks like he has some speed and power in his hands, but lacks sound technique, so you get this guy winging punches from terrible. Prachnio lives off getting the finish with his hands, but if he can't land the KO blow, I'm not sure how he will adjust, and Alvey certainly has a strong chin. At better than 2-1, Alvey may be worth a stab... and I just threw up a little in my mouth.

Lol. I think Alvey could definitely land a big counter here. Likable guy (imo) but hard to bet on since he can just piss away entire rounds not going anything.

[Hugo de Naranja]

In my opinion we’ve seen all we need to see in his three ufc fights.

He first fought a very lackadaisical Iuri Alcantara who pretty much gave up the guillotine by diving in his guard even though he was winning the stand up. That’s where kellehers “deadly guillotine” came up.

Against Marlon, he showed very very amateur grappling. He let marlon grab a hold of a Kimura lock and he tried to trip marlon and ended up getting armbarred. He could not take down Marlon.

Third fight he dominated Damian for the most part but was getting tagged a bunch. Hands down, wide punches. Again grappling looked very shitty. Damian was just worse. Kelleher even had a guillotine lock at one point n couldn’t finish. Doesn’t seem like his guillotine is that good after all.

Barao is still a good striker and his takedown defense Is still good. He’s even shown to be a willing grappler vs Stephens. He has a good chin, ate bombs from Stephens. Only way he loses is off a lazy takedown like his teammate alcantara.

I think Barao is shot and Kelleher is gonna beat his ass. Want to put some BetPoints on it with me Ken? I'd give you (-150) on Barao.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo’s 100 Point Trivia Question:
It’s time for some more MMA Math (No Order of Operations). Make sure to show your work to receive full credit. First correct response gets 100 BPs from me. And for an extra 10 Points, tell me which number you think is most surprising. Best of luck!

Jeremy Stephens’ Career KO/TKO Losses

TIMES

Brian Kelleher’s Career Wins ITD

PLUS

Manny Bermudez’ Submission Wins in Amateur and Professional Career Combined

TIMES

Marion Reneau’s Career Wins ITD

MINUS

Angela Hill’s UFC Losses

[firekillex]

Hugo’s 100 Point Trivia Question:
It’s time for some more MMA Math (No Order of Operations). Make sure to show your work to receive full credit. First correct response gets 100 BPs from me. And for an extra 10 Points, tell me which number you think is most surprising. Best of luck!

Jeremy Stephens’ Career KO/TKO Losses

TIMES

Brian Kelleher’s Career Wins ITD

PLUS

Manny Bermudez’ Submission Wins in Amateur and Professional Career Combined

TIMES

Marion Reneau’s Career Wins ITD

MINUS

Angela Hill’s UFC Losses

stephens career ko/tko losses = 1
x
brian kelleher wins itd 15
+
manny bermudez submission wins 9
x
marion reneau career wins itd 7
-
angela hill ufc losses 4
=
74 total

[Hugo de Naranja]

stephens career ko/tko losses = 1
x
brian kelleher wins itd 15
+
manny bermudez submission wins 9
x
marion reneau career wins itd 7
-
angela hill ufc losses 4
=
74 total

You're close but missing something on Bermudez' submission wins.

[firekillex]

You're close but missing something on Bermudez' submission wins.

thats included amateur.. 2 amateur submissions in cage titans FC plus 7 professional subs

[Hugo de Naranja]

thats included amateur.. 2 amateur submissions in cage titans FC plus 7 professional subs

I'm seeing something different on Tapology than Sherdog.

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter...anny-bermuedez.

It looks like Sherdog also leaves out Bermudez' most recent fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hint: Answer is 1 Pound over Championship Weight for a UFC Weight Class

[firekillex]

oh wow ... sherdog usually always on the ball thats weird haha so 7 amateur subs as well thats crazy
199 total then

[Hugo de Naranja]

oh wow ... sherdog usually always on the ball thats weird haha so 7 amateur subs as well thats crazy
199 total then

Almost there. Just check that math again. I think you are missing Bermudez' Eight Professional Sub Win against Seth Basler (wasn't on Sherdog for some reason)

Jeremy Stephens’ Career KO/TKO Losses (1)

TIMES

Brian Kelleher’s Career Wins ITD (15)

PLUS

Manny Bermudez’ Submission Wins in Amateur and Professional Career Combined (15)

TIMES

Marion Reneau’s Career Wins ITD (7)

MINUS

Angela Hill’s Total UFC Losses (4)
1 x 15 = 15
15 + 15 = ?
30 x 7 = ?
210 - 4 = ?

[firekillex]

jesus christ to high for this
i regret doing this hahahaha
206
ANYTHINGS POSSIBLE


sherdog cant be trusted and doing this on my ipad

[Hugo de Naranja]

jesus christ to high for this
i regret doing this hahahaha
213
ANYTHINGS POSSIBLE

Good effort on that one Fire. Way to be persistent! I'll try to be a bit more clear with my clue next time. Trying to get a balance of difficult without being ridiculous and providing some interesting and surprising knowledge.

1 x 15 = 15
15 + 15 = 30
30 x 7 = 210
210 - 4 = 206

[firekillex]

We'll call that close enough. It's 206.

1 x 15 = 15
15 + 15 = 30
30 x 7 = 210
210 - 4 = 206

haha my ipad ****** up i edited dont worry i can subtract lmao

ill be retired for life on those though .. cheers
crazy how many subs bermudez has though

[Hugo de Naranja]

haha my ipad ****** up i edited dont worry i can subtract lmao

ill be retired for life on those though .. cheers
crazy how many subs bermudez has though

Nice job. Definitely some surprising findings on some of those numbers. Congrats on the win!

[firekillex]

Nice job. Definitely some surprising findings on some of those numbers. Congrats on the win!

who you got stephens or emmett??
seems like josh emmett wants to brawl and i cant see stephens losing a brawl to anybody really other then max holloway at 45
but if emmett mixes up some takedowns it could get close

[Hugo de Naranja]

who you got stephens or emmett??
seems like josh emmett wants to brawl and i cant see stephens losing a brawl to anybody really other then max holloway at 45
but if emmett mixes up some takedowns it could get close

I think this read is spot on altogether. I think Emmett can win a decision but I'd be pretty surprised if he finishes Stephens. I favor Stephens overall but I think Emmett can make it close if he mixes in his offensive wrestling. How do you feel about it?

[firekillex]

id say Stephens ITD or Emmett Decision is my call...
I actually never really watched Emmett before until i seen his Lamas fight , but some of his training videos guy looks pretty good and his wrestling is obviously solid training with Alpha Male ... Stephens looks like hes finally passed through the barrier of being a gatekeeper but i guess well see, if hes an elite guy he needs to win this fight

[JIBBBY]

Hugo is generous with those bet points and Trivia.. That's nice... Hugo is a good guy fellas!!! Not greedy... That's why he wins. Well that combined with capping and working it..

That's exactly how you win in this gambling game.. Build up that good Karma and be kind to others and cap your ass off.. No better combination then that for sports gambling and winning.. I believe that...

Kuddo's Hugo!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo is generous with those bet points and Trivia.. That's nice... Hugo is a good guy fellas!!! Not greedy... That's why he wins. Well that combined with capping and working it..

That's exactly how you win in this gambling game.. Build up that good Karma and be kind to others and cap your ass off.. No better combination then that for sports gambling and winning.. I believe that...

Kuddo's Hugo!!!

Thanks Jibby that means a lot!

[turbozed]

I hate myself for this, but I think the value is on Sam Alvey in fight. Prachnio looks like he has some speed and power in his hands, but lacks sound technique, so you get this guy winging punches from terrible. Prachnio lives off getting the finish with his hands, but if he can't land the KO blow, I'm not sure how he will adjust, and Alvey certainly has a strong chin. At better than 2-1, Alvey may be worth a stab... and I just threw up a little in my mouth.

LOL I'm glad you see it too. I already put in a bet on Alvey at +230. This after telling myself never again in the past couple of fights. God help us Shagy

[Shagdogy]

LOL I'm glad you see it too. I already put in a bet on Alvey at +230. This after telling myself never again in the past couple of fights. God help us Shagy

Thanks for assuring me I'm not crazy. We can suffer through another Alvey fight together.

This card is so hard to bet confidently. Nothing but dog or pass situations. Shelton, Morales, Alvey, Doane, Kelleher... I'm getting really screwed on the lines on a few of those dogs too (BookMaker), making them even harder to bet. You on the other side in any of those?

[turbozed]

Thanks for assuring me I'm not crazy. We can suffer through another Alvey fight together.

This card is so hard to bet confidently. Nothing but dog or pass situations. Shelton, Morales, Alvey, Doane, Kelleher... I'm getting really screwed on the lines on a few of those dogs too (BookMaker), making them even harder to bet. You on the other side in any of those?

No lean on any of those fights. Mostly because I haven't started capping them yet. Let me know which matchups you think have a good angle and I'll let you know what I see.

[Shagdogy]

No lean on any of those fights. Mostly because I haven't started capping them yet. Let me know which matchups you think have a good angle and I'll let you know what I see.

I don't know if any of the angles are all that great, it's just more that I can't see betting the fav in any of them.

Shelton and Morales both have quality UFC level experience and are dogs to guys who have looked good against much lesser competition. In both cases, more available tape on their opponents would be helpful.

Shelton vs. Perez: Good matchup. Shelton has fights with guys like Tim Elliot, Pantoja, Jared Brooks... meanwhile Perez's best wins are against Kevin Gray and Carls John de Tomas, who is super young, trains only out of the Philippines, and has been dominated twice in a row in the UFC. Clear experience and level of competition advantage to Shelton. Shelton's wrestling has looked good during his run and he keeps improving. Perez loves the front headlock, d'arce attack series but we've never seen Shelton have trouble with this. Seems strange to favor Perez here.

Morales vs. Bermudez: Again, a very clear level of competition advantage to the veteran UFC guy here. Morales has been in there with Almeida, Soukhamthath, Brett Johns, and Benito Lopez, while Bermudez has fought only on the NE regional scene and his last win was over a 3-7 guy. If you go back 4 fights to Bermudez vs. Saul Almeida, he was unable to get the tap and according to the commentators should have lost the decision. Meanwhile, Morales has never been subbed in his pro or amateur career. Seems like moving up to the UFC will be a big step for Bermudez and he may not be up to the task if he doesn't get the finish he's so used to getting. Tape on Bermudez is very hard to come by. Really don't know much about his standup or TD abilities. Just that he can sub with a guillotine or triangle.

Yahya vs. Doane: To oversimplify it, it's a striker vs. grappler matchup. Yahya very much needs the cage in order to land his TDs. If you can back Yahya up, or circle and keep range well enough that he can't use the cage to get you to the mat, he struggles. Doane has a good sprawl on the types of low shots that Yahya likes to shoot. I have little doubt if he keeps it in the center he can stuff the TDs. Can he? He has a better than a +220 chance of that. If Doane gets out of the first round without getting subbed, then he will likely only gain momentum as the fight goes on. That said, there are some fair questions of Doane's fight IQ, so this is one to tread carefully with, but no chance I could bet Yahya at his odds when it seems he can only really win this fight by getting an early finish, or eeking out just enough to hold on to a decision as Doane rallies late.

Barao vs. Kelleher: Is Renan Barao ready for the pace of Brian Kelleher? Barao is going to be cutting down to 135 which has given him some trouble of late, and if his cardio is not on point then he will struggle badly. Kelleher pushes a very solid pace, cuts the cage, gets in your face, and makes you work work work. Barao should have a bit of a striking advantage early just due to his length, but if he can't do anything to stop the pressure of Kelleher it seems likely he tires badly halfway through. He's just not someone I can trust enough to bet as a favorite anymore. I like the over 2.5 in this fight at -125 as I don't really see either guy getting the finish. Kelleher has a solid chin and lacks one punch KO power. I don't see Barao getting caught in his guillotine if he knows to avoid it at all costs. I don't see Kelleher getting subbed since the majority of his sub losses are from armbars/triangles which come from bottom game. Barao hasn't shown a ton of bottom game sub ability throughout his career, though he does have some.

[ken10]

Damn it is worrisome to see that none of the vets so far feel strongly about Barão like I do. Barão started strong and won one round from sterling and Stephens... and even though he eventually lost against them, those guys are much better fighters than kelleher. Even though kelleher has pressure I believe this fight goes where Barão wants it to go including the ground.

Curious to see what jibbs and Hugo pick....

[PaperTrail07]

Jouban COULD finish it, but he might just sit back and pick him apart.....Killa B can Hang too....

[PaperTrail07]

Good Vibes NEVER hurt

Hugo is generous with those bet points and Trivia.. That's nice... Hugo is a good guy fellas!!! Not greedy... That's why he wins. Well that combined with capping and working it..

That's exactly how you win in this gambling game.. Build up that good Karma and be kind to others and cap your ass off.. No better combination then that for sports gambling and winning.. I believe that...

Kuddo's Hugo!!!

[turbozed]

Morales vs. Bermudez: Again, a very clear level of competition advantage to the veteran UFC guy here. Morales has been in there with Almeida, Soukhamthath, Brett Johns, and Benito Lopez, while Bermudez has fought only on the NE regional scene and his last win was over a 3-7 guy. If you go back 4 fights to Bermudez vs. Saul Almeida, he was unable to get the tap and according to the commentators should have lost the decision. Meanwhile, Morales has never been subbed in his pro or amateur career. Seems like moving up to the UFC will be a big step for Bermudez and he may not be up to the task if he doesn't get the finish he's so used to getting. Tape on Bermudez is very hard to come by. Really don't know much about his standup or TD abilities. Just that he can sub with a guillotine or triangle.

I don't have anything to add to this analysis since I haven't watched tape yet. But I did want to point out that Bermudez's signature submission move is the "Bermudez Triangle"

https://www.flocombat.com/video/6100901-behind-the-dirt-manny-bermudez-the-bermudez-triangle

If my last name were Bermudez I'd drill the triangle all day long just for that pun alone.