1. 05-31-12 04:45 AM #1
    snufflyjoe
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    i like Guida for +265

    I think this fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest. This is a five round fight and Gray is going against a hard to stop cardio machine in Guida.

    I think that gray may take the first 2 rounds but will fade with Guida taking the last three.

    This is the first 5 round fight Guida has had since training at Jacksons and I think that Guida/jackson will be able to exploit Guidas cardio advantage and get a decision.

    I think guida might do try to something similair to the gomi fight lots of confusing movement.

    Gray is coming off a devastating title shot ko loss and has changed camps.

    Guida by cardio
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  2. 05-31-12 06:08 AM #2
    Imsmarterthanu
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    you may be right sir
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  3. 05-31-12 06:32 AM #3
    sirchadwick1
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    If Gray tries to go all out early, he could likely fade in the 3rd... leaving an opening for Guida. I doubt Guida can finish, but he could always lock in a RNC...and we know he's always game and has a solid chin. I think you can wait a little on the price though - He's +290 at 5d right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see him at +325 by fight night/reduced. Too many out there think Gray has this in the bag. I'll take Guida's cardio, pace, and heart anyday w/ these odds.
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  4. 05-31-12 06:33 AM #4
    Vaughany
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    yeah +265 terrible odds
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  5. 05-31-12 10:40 AM #5
    BIGDAY
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    I really dont see where Guida has an advantage.

    Odds are correct imo
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  6. 05-31-12 10:52 AM #6
    DeFactoCrippler
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    I really dont see where Guida has an advantage.

    Odds are correct imo
    I would have to agree. But these guys are saying guida has the edge in cardio. Maynard has only lost one time which was somewhat of a comeback. Maynard has grappled for 3 straight rounds many fights, thats a test of cardio if any.
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  7. 05-31-12 10:58 AM #7
    bjpenn85
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    the odds are not correct bigday. Gray is waaaaaaaaaaaay overvalued. Guida has vastly improved lately! Breaking dos anjos jaw looks sweeter now than ever + he gave bendo real problems at times.
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  8. 05-31-12 11:01 AM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    the odds are not correct bigday. Gray is waaaaaaaaaaaay overvalued. Guida has vastly improved lately! Breaking dos anjos jaw looks sweeter now than ever + he gave bendo real problems at times.
    What area do you feel he is stronger than Maynard?
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  9. 05-31-12 11:18 AM #9
    v1y
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    if guida wins it's because gray gasses hard.

    with that said... i just see gray dominating.
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  10. 05-31-12 11:24 AM #10
    bjpenn85
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    Standing up, this fight is going to be quite close, the difference standing up, will probably be guidas footwork. Even dos anjos, that we already now is very quick and has excellent kickboxing struggled with finding the range. Guida is constantly moving around and understandably, that frustrates a lot of fighters. Gomi looked like bambi on ice with guida. Its the way hes fighting, and his energy level that creates problems, not necessarily that he is better than maynard in one specific area. Guida has also a solid bjj game that he isnt afraid to use. I dont think guida can submit maynard in early rounds, but his bjj may come into play if hes able to tire out maynard in later round and catch him. Guida is in the top 10 in the ufc lightweight division...he shouldnt be +300 against anyone, even a rematch between henderson.
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  11. 05-31-12 11:25 AM #11
    Oblivian
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    I will end up playing Guida small. Guida looked much better against Bendo than I expected. He's really impressed me in his recent fights. If he keeps his movement up, I can see Gray looking very stiff in the standup.
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  12. 05-31-12 07:04 PM #12
    Kaladarus
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    Lay the price on Gray and count your money after the fight.
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  13. 05-31-12 07:44 PM #13
    Crassus
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    Maynard is awesome parlay potential.
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  14. 05-31-12 08:30 PM #14
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Standing up, this fight is going to be quite close, the difference standing up, will probably be guidas footwork. Even dos anjos, that we already now is very quick and has excellent kickboxing struggled with finding the range. Guida is constantly moving around and understandably, that frustrates a lot of fighters. Gomi looked like bambi on ice with guida. Its the way hes fighting, and his energy level that creates problems, not necessarily that he is better than maynard in one specific area. Guida has also a solid bjj game that he isnt afraid to use. I dont think guida can submit maynard in early rounds, but his bjj may come into play if hes able to tire out maynard in later round and catch him. Guida is in the top 10 in the ufc lightweight division...he shouldnt be +300 against anyone, even a rematch between henderson.
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  15. 06-01-12 08:39 AM #15
    Rubber Guard
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    Guida may be the play by him having a non-stop motor and maybe stealing a decision.

    But he really doesn't do anything good other than work hard and have cardio.

    I mean Frankie is twice the striker....5x the striker Guida is. And Maynard found his chin. Frankie is quicker, has better boxing, and better footwork than Guida. Guida isn't going to take Maynard down either.

    I'm not saying Maynard is a world class striker. But his boxing is decent. And if he wants...he can probably take Guida down. When has Guida ever worked someone striking? He seems to win vs. guys he should beat and maybe pull out a crappy win over a guy who can't defend his TD (Pettis).

    I wouldn't lay the juice on Maynard. But it is hard to back Guida vs. a top 5 guy.
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  16. 06-01-12 08:58 AM #16
    Beelzebubzy
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    I thikn Guida is a decent play at +300 or close.

    Wasnt he plus 300 versus Sanchez? I scored that fight a draw. The only concern I have is that Guida has not defeated a stict wrestler in the UFC but as others have mentioned Gray is not Coutures anymore, he is just jumping around at camps.

    I also think the size difference in this fight is huge. Gray is a big 155er whereas Clay could easily make 145
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  17. 06-01-12 09:03 AM #17
    Rubber Guard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy View Post
    I thikn Guida is a decent play at +300 or close.

    Wasnt he plus 300 versus Sanchez? I scored that fight a draw. The only concern I have is that Guida has not defeated a stict wrestler in the UFC but as others have mentioned Gray is not Coutures anymore, he is just jumping around at camps.

    I also think the size difference in this fight is huge. Gray is a big 155er whereas Clay could easily make 145
    I think the camp switch is good for him. How many great fighters are coming out of Xtreme Couture? Maynard is training at AKA and has trained with Aldo's team. Great move by him. He should have more tools then he ever has.
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  18. 06-01-12 09:18 AM #18
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rubber Guard View Post
    I think the camp switch is good for him. How many great fighters are coming out of Xtreme Couture? Maynard is training at AKA and has trained with Aldo's team. Great move by him. He should have more tools then he ever has.
    Michael Chandler's an amazing prospect and arguably top ten after that Alvarez fight.
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  19. 06-01-12 09:33 AM #19
    Rubber Guard
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    Yea...but he's a wrestler. Maynard wasn't expanding his game at Couture's Gym.

    Doesn't compare to the guys AKA has. Or all the quick skilled smaller guys at Aldo's camp.
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  20. 06-01-12 09:39 AM #20
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rubber Guard View Post
    Yea...but he's a wrestler. Maynard wasn't expanding his game at Couture's Gym.

    Doesn't compare to the guys AKA has. Or all the quick skilled smaller guys at Aldo's camp.
    Fair nuff I spose.
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  21. 06-01-12 09:51 AM #21
    BIGDAY
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    Well... I hope you all start SLAMMING the FUKK outa Guida so I can make Maynard a MAX 5Unit MMA Winner at -150

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  22. 06-01-12 10:31 AM #22
    MMAbetMASTA
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    I don't, but then again I wouldn't pay that juice for gray... no play for me.
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  23. 06-01-12 11:11 AM #23
    darko3131
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    I'm thinkng the same thing as OP. Should be an all out war. I trust Clay's gas tank more in a 5 round fight and the odds are right for a close dec.

    If I don't pull the trigger on a prefight bet, I do think this is the perfect fight for LIVE IN fight betting!
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  24. 06-01-12 09:12 PM #24
    snufflyjoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    yeah +265 terrible odds
    yep a lot better lines with other bookies mine is pretty shit
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  25. 06-01-12 09:19 PM #25
    snufflyjoe
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    dont know about slamming the **** out of it, but laying the juice on any heavily favoured fighter after a title shot loss is never a good idea imo.
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  26. 06-02-12 08:03 PM #26
    snufflyjoe
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    guida by decision is +464 and not maynard in the distance is -213
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  27. 06-02-12 09:26 PM #27
    Crassus
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    you're suggesting to bet against this man. Shame on you all.

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  28. 06-02-12 09:51 PM #28
    Vitooch
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    Quote Originally Posted by snufflyjoe View Post
    dont know about slamming the **** out of it, but laying the juice on any heavily favoured fighter after a title shot loss is never a good idea imo.
    Never a good idea? Cain and Chael immediately come to mind
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  29. 06-03-12 12:30 AM #29
    snufflyjoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    Never a good idea? Cain and Chael immediately come to mind
    it goes both ways (hominick, rampage, machida) but i am catious of fighters coming off a title loss i think losing your title shot really messes a lot of fighters up and they dont have the same focus .


    Gray could be fine and really motivated to get another shot and win but i wouldnt bet on that at -345.

    Title shot loss aside i still like Guida in this fight i think although gray has a lot of advantages these will be negated by guidas style.

    i think this fight will be close if it goes to decision and maybe guida may also be able catch a sub.

    Guida at anything over +250 is a good bet imo
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  30. 06-18-12 05:08 PM #30
    snufflyjoe
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    Get on this fellas
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  31. 06-18-12 06:24 PM #31
    GunShard
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    I noticed that both Maynard and Guida has strong striking defense and strong takedown defense statistically.
    I believe this fight will end in a decision.
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  32. 06-18-12 08:53 PM #32
    Joe_Shabadoo
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    I like it.

    I'll take a stab at Guida ITD [+553] at 5D, too.
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  33. 06-18-12 09:23 PM #33
    snufflyjoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe_Shabadoo View Post
    I like it.

    I'll take a stab at Guida ITD [+553] at 5D, too.
    You might as well put a flyer on guida sotn as well, good luck man
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