UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi | 14.01.2018 (St. Louis, Missouri)

[Demonata]

I think I'm going to take marco polo reyes. I think he should be the favorite and will tko frevola. Just got to stay on the feet.

[Shagdogy]

I think I'm going to take marco polo reyes. I think he should be the favorite and will tko frevola. Just got to stay on the feet.

I'm not against this thinking but there's a power/chin advantage by Frevola that's a bit scary. Striking skill alone Reyes wins easy.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you see in this fight that leans you to Choi?

I see this fight playing out mostly on the feet. I think Choi is the sharper, more accurate, more powerful striker so I favor him to win the striking exchanges en route to a decision victory. However, his striking and takedown defenses are both poor so landing bombs or TDs are potential paths to victory for Stephens. However, I don’t see Stephens as much of a TD threat and I think both guys have the chins to survive the distance. I have Goes the Distance (+250) and Choi Decision at various prices as my main plays.

[Demonata]

I'm not against this thinking but there's a power/chin advantage by Frevola that's a bit scary. Striking skill alone Reyes wins easy.

My only worries are if reyes gets taken down a lot.

[Hugo de Naranja]

My only worries are if reyes gets taken down a lot.

His TDD is abysmal. I like the odds on Frevola Sub.

[Shagdogy]

His TDD is abysmal. I like the odds on Frevola Sub.

Why do you say that? I feel like he has improved in this area recently. I'm also not sure Frevola is a dominant TD artist.

[turbozed]

Here's mmamania's breakdown of a few of the prelim fights. I've capped all of the fights here besides Burnell/Santiago, and have the same thoughts and picks as the writer has.

Like Eye, Aldrich, and Aldana to win. Kang should win handily too as far as skillset is concerned but the -320 price on a guy who's been out 3+ years is just not bettable for me.

125 lbs.: Kalindra Faria vs. Jessica Eye
Kalindra Faria (18-6-1) put losses to Jessica Aguilar and Karolina Kowalkiewicz behind her with three consecutive wins, including a rubber match victory over Carina Damm for the Titan FC Bantamweight title. This earned her a spot in UFC, where she suffered an upset submission loss to late replacement Mara Romero Borella in her Octagon debut.


She owns seven professional wins by form of knockout and another five via submission.
The good news for Jessica Eye (11-6) is that she’s finally in her proper division. The bad news is that “Evil” re-enters it on a four-fight losing streak, although she deserved the win over Bethe Correia last time out.
She has not fought since Sept. 2016 due to both Aspen Ladd and Paige VanZant pulling out of planned bouts.
I feel like I say this every time I predict one of her fights, but Eye is legitimately better than her 1-5 UFC record would suggest. The decisions against Alexis Davis and Bethe Correia could have easily gone her way and the three women she lost clearly to were Miesha Tate, Sara McMann and Julianna Pena, all powerhouse grapplers and considerably larger than Eye.


At 125 pounds, she’ll do much better. Faria is a dangerous, powerful slugger, but Eye’s boxing is significantly sharper. She picks apart Faria to finally get back on track.


Prediction: Eye via unanimous decision


135 lbs.: Talita Bernardo vs. Irene Aldana
Talita Bernardo (5-2) — riding a four-fight win streak — stepped up on less than a week’s notice to face Marion Reneau in Rotterdam last September. While she started strong, Reneau eventually overpowered her with ground-and-pound en route to a stoppage with just six seconds to go.
She is a full six inches shorter than Mexico’s Irene Aldana (7-4).
Aldana entered UFC with some hype following a pair of impressive knockouts in Invicta. She’s since struggled to regain that form, losing decisions to Leslie Smith and Katlyn Chookagian but earning “Fight of the Night” against the former.


She owns five professional wins by (technical) knockout and another two by submission.
I won’t deny that I’ve been disappointed with Aldana’s UFC run, but she’s still way too much for Bernardo. In addition to the massive height discrepancy, Bernardo looks like a complete novice on the feet, wholly unequipped to handle Aldana’s power and aggression.


She’s solid on the ground, of course, but her takedowns are inconsistent and Aldana shut down Chookagian’s wrestling in their fight. “Robles” sprawls-and-brawls to her first UFC victory.


Prediction: Aldana via second-round technical knockout


115 lbs.: Danielle Taylor vs. J.J. Aldrich


Danielle Taylor (9-2) won the King of the Cage Strawweight title twice before joining UFC, where she lost a snoozer to Maryna Moroz in her debut. She has since picked up controversial victories over Seo Hee Ham and Jessica Penne, which the majority of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media scored for her opponents.
She stands five inches shorter than J.J. Aldrich (5-2) at 5’0” and will give up seven inches of reach.
Aldrich impressed Joanna Jedrzejczyk enough to be her first pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, only to fall in a clash with Team Claudia top pick Tatiana Suarez. Things didn’t go much better in her UFC debut against Juliana Lima, but she did manage to defeat Chan Mi Jeon at UFC Fight Night 110.


Two of her five professional wins have come by form of knockout.


I firmly believe Taylor has not won a single fight in UFC. She deserved to lose against Ham and certainly did not get the better of Jessica Penne. She has zero urgency or volume — it’s like judges look at her build and decide that any strike she lands must be a fight-changer.


Unfortunately for her, Aldrich is a skilled and active striker who defused a decent slugger in Jeon last time out and will have an unreasonably amount of range on her. She picks apart Taylor at range so thoroughly that even Taylor’s hypnosis fails to win enough judges over.


Prediction: Aldrich via unanimous decision


145 lbs.: Mads Burnell vs. Mike Santiago
Mads Burnell (8-2) — riding a three-fight win streak — stepped up on short notice to face the human bulldozer that is Michel Prazeres in Rotterdam. His submission defense held up for two rounds, but the Brazilian — who came in overweight — caught him in a north-south choke early in the third.


His five submission wins include two by Japanese necktie.


The good news for Mike Santiago (21-10) was that his knockout victory on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” earned him a spot in UFC. The bad news was that he had to welcome Zabit Magomedsharipov to the Octagon, suffering a submission loss in the process.


He has just one decision win since May 2011.

Burnell had basically the worst possible stylistic match up in his UFC debut. I expect him to do much better at his proper weight class against someone who isn’t as wide as Burnell is tall. Santiago is aggressive and well-rounded, but those 10 losses include eight by submission and Burnell has some nasty chokes.


The jury’s out on whether Burnell has the wrestling to be a real threat, but he’s fighting out of a decent camp and has lots of time to improve at age 23. Santiago’s onslaught opens him up to a takedown, after which Burnell locks up something unpleasant as they scramble.


Prediction: Burnell via first-round submission


135 lbs.: Kyung Ho Kang vs. Guido Cannetti


Kyung Ho Kang (13-7) got off to a shaky UFC start, losing close decisions to Alex Caceres and Chico Camus, before finally picking up a win over Shunichi Shimizu in Singapore. He went on to scrape past Michinori Tanaka in hostile territory, winning “Fight of the Night” in the process.


This will be his first fight in more than three years because of South Korea’s mandatory military service.
Guido Cannetti (7-2) got a second chance on TUF: “Latin America” when teammate Marlon Vera suffered a skin infection, only to get demolished by eventual winner Alejandro Perez in the semifinals. He has since split his UFC bouts, falling to Enrique Briones in his promotional debut before upsetting Hugo Viana his next time out.


He has not fought in more than two years because of a failed drug test.


Three years is a long-ass time, but not long enough to keep this from being a one-sided wipeout. Cannetti is a limited, chinny brawler who cannot match Kang’s size, wrestling ability or submission skills. Though Kang has had issues with maintaining position, Cannetti isn’t anywhere near the caliber of scrambler Caceres or Tanaka is and his wild rushes are perfect double-leg fodder.


The only question in this fight is whether Kang is too rusty to get the finish. I say no. He taps Cannetti in the first round.


Prediction: Kang via first-round submission

[Shagdogy]

Here's mmamania's breakdown of a few of the prelim fights. I've capped all of the fights here besides Burnell/Santiago, and have the same thoughts and picks as the writer has.

Like Eye, Aldrich, and Aldana to win. Kang should win handily too as far as skillset is concerned but the -320 price on a guy who's been out 3+ years is just not bettable for me.

Turbo - please follow up with your thoughts on Santiago/Burnell when you get to it. Here's my short form summary:

Very tough fight to call. Burnell is a young guy with a lot of promise and a really dangerous sub game. Santiago is much more battle tested and has some real good grit, BUT he can be subbed. The difference between these two guys at this point is that Santiago has been tested, beaten, and come back. He has a grit edge IMO. I believe that Santiago could potentially wear down Burnell, particularly if he can get top position. But Burnell has shown good strength in the clinch and top position, so there’s also a strong possibility that Burnell gets his BJJ going and gets the sub. Have to favor Santiago in this matchup just slightly due to his experience and grit, but Burnell has an opportunity to prove himself worthy by landing a sub on Santiago who clearly can be subbed, particularly with chokes. Pick: Santiago by decision. Line: -130.

[turbozed]

Turbo - please follow up with your thoughts on Santiago/Burnell when you get to it. Here's my short form summary:

Very tough fight to call. Burnell is a young guy with a lot of promise and a really dangerous sub game. Santiago is much more battle tested and has some real good grit, BUT he can be subbed. The difference between these two guys at this point is that Santiago has been tested, beaten, and come back. He has a grit edge IMO. I believe that Santiago could potentially wear down Burnell, particularly if he can get top position. But Burnell has shown good strength in the clinch and top position, so there’s also a strong possibility that Burnell gets his BJJ going and gets the sub. Have to favor Santiago in this matchup just slightly due to his experience and grit, but Burnell has an opportunity to prove himself worthy by landing a sub on Santiago who clearly can be subbed, particularly with chokes. Pick: Santiago by decision. Line: -130.

I have watched tape for all 4 chick fights but only 1 men's fight (Cannetti/Kang). I'll give you my thoughts on Burnell/Santiago when I get a chance to watch.

Why the decision line at -130? The ML is -165 and that's not a huge difference in price.

[Shagdogy]

I have watched tape for all 4 chick fights but only 1 men's fight (Cannetti/Kang). I'll give you my thoughts on Burnell/Santiago when I get a chance to watch.

Why the decision line at -130? The ML is -165 and that's not a huge difference in price.

Oh sorry... wasn't clear. I was saying that my pick is Santiago by decision, and I would set the ML for this fight at -130 for Santiago.

[Shagdogy]

BTW Turbo, I agree that Kang should be a big fav vs Cannetti but I won't be betting it at the current number. It's either a parlay piece or nothing.

[TPowell]

I have watched tape for all 4 chick fights but only 1 men's fight (Cannetti/Kang). I'll give you my thoughts on Burnell/Santiago when I get a chance to watch.

Why the decision line at -130? The ML is -165 and that's not a huge difference in price.

Turbo, I can't find much on Faria that I like but the background I have is that she uses body lock TD's well and has pretty good kicks but is inactive on the feet and a little sloppy on the mat. I'm most curious about her wrestling because Eye should beat her on the feet with Eye's ability and volume + Faria being inactive at times.

[turbozed]

Turbo, I can't find much on Faria that I like but the background I have is that she uses body lock TD's well and has pretty good kicks but is inactive on the feet and a little sloppy on the mat. I'm most curious about her wrestling because Eye should beat her on the feet with Eye's ability and volume + Faria being inactive at times.

Here's my take on her wrestling.

Faria obviously got outmuscled by Borella, but we didn't get to see too much there so hard to tell.

Against Karolina at 115, she wasn't able to hit a bodylock TD. She also shot for a single leg in the 2nd round but Karolina saw it a mile away. Faria hasn't showed that she can level change and hit a TD. They seem to be telegraphed.

Against 0-0 fighter Geisa Sena, she shoots for a double leg but her drive isn't very good so she settles for grabbing around the body for a bodylock takedown.

Faria doesn't seem to be overpowering strong even at 115. Eye seems decently strong at 135 despite really being a 125 lber. She has lost in grappling exchanges, but they were to powerful 135 lbs wrestlers like McMann and Pena.

[TPowell]

Here's my take on her wrestling.

Faria obviously got outmuscled by Borella, but we didn't get to see too much there so hard to tell.

Against Karolina at 115, she wasn't able to hit a bodylock TD. She also shot for a single leg in the 2nd round but Karolina saw it a mile away. Faria hasn't showed that she can level change and hit a TD. They seem to be telegraphed.

Against 0-0 fighter Geisa Sena, she shoots for a double leg but her drive isn't very good so she settles for grabbing around the body for a bodylock takedown.

Faria doesn't seem to be overpowering strong even at 115. Eye seems decently strong at 135 despite really being a 125 lber. She has lost in grappling exchanges, but they were to powerful 135 lbs wrestlers like McMann and Pena.

That was my initial thought as well. Eye should be more adept at defending TD's at 125. I think she's definitely the better striker as well

[turbozed]

Oh sorry... wasn't clear. I was saying that my pick is Santiago by decision, and I would set the ML for this fight at -130 for Santiago.

Alright I just finished watching 4 Santiago fights and 4 Burnell fights (2 for each were rd1 finshes so it didn't take too long).

You're right about Santiago having a grit edge. I think the line is set pretty well. Lots of flashes of excellence from Burnell with finding that Japanese necktie and some slick boxing. IN a few fights he's landed this move where he puts his guard own and baits a jab and throws an overhand over the top of it.

That said, I think he might have cardio issues. THe longer it goes, the more I think Santiago takes over. If you watch the first round against Ott Tonissaar on Youtube, you'll see Burnell straight style on Ott throughout the whole round. Was a 10-8 at least. But you could see him gassing out McGregor style towards the end of just the first round. There's no footage of the 2nd round but it looks like he gets KO'd. I think it may have been a fatigue driven KO because that Ott guy was a level or two below him in striking department.

In the next fight against a very novice looking grappler, Youmbi, you'll notice Burnell taking breaks in the 2nd and 3rd round. Where he had active toes in the 1st, they're now flat as he just looks to control and ride it out. I think he was careful not to expend all his energy.

In the fight against Prazares, I think he got slowly more tired and didn't put much resistance in the 3rd that led to the choke. The pace there wasn't even that high. Obviously Prazares is a great grappler but Mads spent almost all of the first round reguarding and not even getting hit. I think a more scrambly guy like Santiago would wear him out even faster. I know this fight was short notice but the Ott fight was another clue.

If you look at his other fights, you'll notice he went the distance with some bad fighters. One guy was 0-0. ANother guy a jobber that went 1-8 after fighting Mads. This to me usually means that the fighter was winning early but then gassed and then hung on to win.

Given what I see, Mads has a chance to finish Santiago in the first round only. After that Santiago will take over and probably finish him later. Or Santiago might control from the get go. I like Santiago ITD hedged with Mads 1st Rd. I may just play the under at + odds.

[Shagdogy]

Alright I just finished watching 4 Santiago fights and 4 Burnell fights (2 for each were rd1 finshes so it didn't take too long).

You're right about Santiago having a grit edge. I think the line is set pretty well. Lots of flashes of excellence from Burnell with finding that Japanese necktie and some slick boxing. IN a few fights he's landed this move where he puts his guard own and baits a jab and throws an overhand over the top of it.

That said, I think he might have cardio issues. THe longer it goes, the more I think Santiago takes over. If you watch the first round against Ott Tonissaar on Youtube, you'll see Burnell straight style on Ott throughout the whole round. Was a 10-8 at least. But you could see him gassing out McGregor style towards the end of just the first round. There's no footage of the 2nd round but it looks like he gets KO'd. I think it may have been a fatigue driven KO because that Ott guy was a level or two below him in striking department.

In the next fight against a very novice looking grappler, Youmbi, you'll notice Burnell taking breaks in the 2nd and 3rd round. Where he had active toes in the 1st, they're now flat as he just looks to control and ride it out. I think he was careful not to expend all his energy.

In the fight against Prazares, I think he got slowly more tired and didn't put much resistance in the 3rd that led to the choke. The pace there wasn't even that high. Obviously Prazares is a great grappler but Mads spent almost all of the first round reguarding and not even getting hit. I think a more scrambly guy like Santiago would wear him out even faster. I know this fight was short notice but the Ott fight was another clue.

If you look at his other fights, you'll notice he went the distance with some bad fighters. One guy was 0-0. ANother guy a jobber that went 1-8 after fighting Mads. This to me usually means that the fighter was winning early but then gassed and then hung on to win.

Given what I see, Mads has a chance to finish Santiago in the first round only. After that Santiago will take over and probably finish him later. Or Santiago might control from the get go. I like Santiago ITD hedged with Mads 1st Rd. I may just play the under at + odds.

Sounds like we see it much the same. I can't be as high on Burnell as some because the level of competition is not there and he seems to have a little quit in him when things aren't going his way.

Meanwhile Santiago has been through his rough patch and has recently been on a real solid run. And of course you can't fault him for his loss to Zabit on short notice.

As long as Burnell doesn't pull the sub, I think Santiago takes it. I just don't quite favor him as much as the current number implies.

[Shagdogy]

What are we thinking about Cummings/Alves? Seems like there's some value on Alves. He's a gritty fighter who is real tough to hurt, and he will have a speed advantage in the striking for sure.

Can Cummings get him on the mat a few times? Alves's TDD was awful vs Miller but he was totally drained from a bad weight cut, and usually his TDD is solid.

If it's a pure striking match, can Cummings hurt him with his left hand? Alves is a pretty durable fighter. Hard to put away. But Cummings hasn't been put away by strikes either against some solid competition.

I think this one will probably be a tight decision. For the price value seems to be with Alves. Thoughts?

[KingHawkins]

My early action. Will be adding on Choi.

STRAIGHT WAGER01/11/18 11:01 EST
Bet $ 1,125.00 to win $ 750.00Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 124 - Matchup - St Louis USA
Jeremy Stephens vs Dooho Choi01/14/18 22:00 EST
Dooho Choi -150


STRAIGHT WAGER01/11/18 10:43 EST
Bet $ 375.00 to win $ 300.00Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 124 - Matchup - St Louis USA
Danielle Taylor vs J J Aldrich01/14/18 18:00 EST
J J Aldrich -125

[PaperTrail07]

On Value alone....its a must bet IMO

What are we thinking about Cummings/Alves? Seems like there's some value on Alves. He's a gritty fighter who is real tough to hurt, and he will have a speed advantage in the striking for sure.

Can Cummings get him on the mat a few times? Alves's TDD was awful vs Miller but he was totally drained from a bad weight cut, and usually his TDD is solid.

If it's a pure striking match, can Cummings hurt him with his left hand? Alves is a pretty durable fighter. Hard to put away. But Cummings hasn't been put away by strikes either against some solid competition.

I think this one will probably be a tight decision. For the price value seems to be with Alves. Thoughts?

[turbozed]

Sounds like we see it much the same. I can't be as high on Burnell as some because the level of competition is not there and he seems to have a little quit in him when things aren't going his way.

Meanwhile Santiago has been through his rough patch and has recently been on a real solid run. And of course you can't fault him for his loss to Zabit on short notice.

As long as Burnell doesn't pull the sub, I think Santiago takes it. I just don't quite favor him as much as the current number implies.

Based on Burnell's gas tank and Santiago's pressure and scrambling ability, I give him very little chance to get a sub or even win a round past the 1st round. So I ended up playing Santiago's ML and a bit of Santiago ITD and hedged with Burnell Rd1.

[Shagdogy]

On Value alone....its a must bet IMO

I've just finished capping it and I think Alves should be a very slight favorite. Worth a small play for the value. Agreed.

Assuming that both fighters can make it to the final bell, I think Alves's speed and variety will give him a slight edge to get the nod.

[Shagdogy]

Based on Burnell's gas tank and Santiago's pressure and scrambling ability, I give him very little chance to get a sub or even win a round past the 1st round. So I ended up playing Santiago's ML and a bit of Santiago ITD and hedged with Burnell Rd1.

Surprised you found value in the ML. I think you're on the right side. I'll prob be laying off though. Good luck!

[turbozed]

Surprised you found value in the ML. I think you're on the right side. I'll prob be laying off though. Good luck!

I know I said I'd cool it on the props this year but I really don't think Mads has much of a chance of winning past the 1st round (either ITD or decision). So with the hedge, I'm comfortable on the ML price. Without the hedge, I'd just go for Santiago ITD or the under.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Why do you say that? I feel like he has improved in this area recently. I'm also not sure Frevola is a dominant TD artist.

He's been taken down in all of his UFC wins and got KO'ed right away by Vick in his last fight. I think Frevola is a better offensive wrestler than Cezar Arzamendia and CA took Reyes down repeatedly before he got KO'ed.

[TPowell]

Really think women's mma is a potential gold mine. You don't have to worry about the fluky finishes as much and you can legitimately bet on who you think is better technically.

[TPowell]

I have a standard 2 unit play on eye ml and big 6 units risked play on the over in the Taylor fight at -290

[TPowell]

Looking into alves fight now. I'm not going to factor in that Miller fight because him at 155 was ridiculous to start with and I have no clue why he tried it. Bounced back against Patrick cote but it was cotes last fight so it makes me wonder. Think this fight comes down to how successful cummings is getting this fight to the ground. He's an incredibly smart fighter and he could put a good game plan together and beat a relative idiot guy fight iq wise.

[TPowell]

Think cummings probably frustrates him by using his range and not engaging in the firefight that cote gave him and then takes him down eventually. If alves is the quicker guy by a decent margin, he may have a shot in the stand up though.

[Shagdogy]

Think cummings probably frustrates him by using his range and not engaging in the firefight that cote gave him and then takes him down eventually. If alves is the quicker guy by a decent margin, he may have a shot in the stand up though.

I think Cummings has pretty weak TDs actually, especially later in the fight. He times singles and doubles decently but when he hits the legs it's like he hits a wall. He has no additional drive to push through and finish. And while Alves was dumped repeatedly vs Miller, he has had some solid TDD at 170 over his career. Maybe Cummings proves me wrong but I could see this a lot like his fight with Ponzi where he attempted a number of TDs but secured none and got picked at by the faster striker.

And what's this about Alves and bad fight IQ? He doesn't need any. He has one plan: stand and strike. That's it. The rest is instinct for him.

[TPowell]

I'm hoping this line drops because alves does have value here at +170 but I really like cummings as a fighter. He's one of those guys that doesn't care about impressing anyone. He's just there to win whatever way is easiest.

[cmduchene]

going Choi big!!

[Shagdogy]

Guys, I need someone to convince me that Krause is rightfully the favorite over Alex White. GO!

[UncleChael]

Because 10 grand to a rich man is still 10 grand - Chael P. Sonnen

[turbozed]

Aldana down to -155 on 5D

Bernardo still +185 on Bovada.

Easy arb opportunity there for anyone there. Also a good price on Aldana.

[TPowell]

Aldana down to -155 on 5D

Bernardo still +185 on Bovada.

Easy arb opportunity there for anyone there. Also a good price on Aldana.

Thanks Turbo, just pounded both of those accounts for that 4.5% edge gain or so.