1. 05-26-12 10:08 AM #1
    zoo youk
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    Struve vs Lavar Johnsonn

    since Johnson has said he refuses to train Brazilian JJ.....it would be smart for Struve not to bang with Lavar (not that he cant) and take him straight to the ground and submit him. I mean Pat Berry had Johnson in all kinds of trouble, I am sure Struve will have him tapping in seconds..

    really liking Struve here.
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  2. 05-26-12 10:23 AM #2
    Crassus
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    I would say it's pretty probable he can't stand with Lavar, at least not for long. The only real question is if Struve can land the takedown (I think he can) but can he land it without catching a Christmas ham sized fist to the face first is the issue.
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  3. 05-26-12 10:39 AM #3
    zoo youk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    I would say it's pretty probable he can't stand with Lavar, at least not for long. The only real question is if Struve can land the takedown (I think he can) but can he land it without catching a Christmas ham sized fist to the face first is the issue.
    Struve can definantly stand with Lavar IMO. I am not sure how well his chin has been checked, would have to look at recent fights but Struves striking has improved by light years. He certainly won't have a problem trading with Lavar as long as he is not eating massive hay makers, which he shouldn't as he has very good head movement and moves his feet very well.
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  4. 05-26-12 10:41 AM #4
    zoo youk
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    plus Struve has a massive reach, its gonna be hard for Lavar to find his range without getting constantly tagged.
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  5. 05-26-12 10:47 AM #5
    zoo youk
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  6. 05-26-12 11:29 AM #6
    fosho14
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    This is a do not bet fight unless your into throwing your money around on random shit for entertainment purposes or fun. I don't see the difference between throwing your money on red or black at a roulett table to this? Struve gets hit a lot and can very likely crumble at the hands of Lavar's power, and at the very same time Lavar can get subbed within seconds of this fight touching the floor. If your into unpredictable uncalculated risk, than bet on this fight boys, GL.
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  7. 05-26-12 11:30 AM #7
    blumpkin
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    I wish i was more confident struve will at least attempt to get it to the ground. He hasnt shown he wants to even go there in his fights. Pat B was the one taking struve down and then got caught.
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  8. 05-26-12 11:36 AM #8
    fosho14
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    Quote Originally Posted by blumpkin View Post
    I wish i was more confident struve will at least attempt to get it to the ground. He hasnt shown he wants to even go there in his fights. Pat B was the one taking struve down and then got caught.
    Ya most of struve's fights just somehow end up on the ground, but he very rarely takes it there through his own will. Yet another reason why this is a completely 50/50 fight, why would anyone bet on this?
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  9. 05-26-12 11:48 AM #9
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by fosho14 View Post
    Ya most of struve's fights just somehow end up on the ground, but he very rarely takes it there through his own will. Yet another reason why this is a completely 50/50 fight, why would anyone bet on this?
    Because you can get better than +101.
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  10. 05-26-12 11:52 AM #10
    fosho14
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Because you can get better than +101.
    It's still not worth the risk to me. I see what your saying though. GL.
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  11. 05-26-12 01:05 PM #11
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by fosho14 View Post
    This is a do not bet fight unless your into throwing your money around on random shit for entertainment purposes or fun. I don't see the difference between throwing your money on red or black at a roulett table to this? Struve gets hit a lot and can very likely crumble at the hands of Lavar's power, and at the very same time Lavar can get subbed within seconds of this fight touching the floor. If your into unpredictable uncalculated risk, than bet on this fight boys, GL.
    Not true, Struve has a chin, not a great one but solid enough. And he's got heart. He wins this 7/10 times in my opinion given Lavar's lack of TDD and submission defense.
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  12. 05-26-12 02:24 PM #12
    sirchadwick1
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    Smart money is on Struve. Those who are wishing for another Lavar KO are underrating Struve's chin (again).
    At close to even money, you have to take the more complete MMA fighter here.
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  13. 05-26-12 03:09 PM #13
    zoo youk
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    bet is in on Struve
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  14. 05-26-12 03:13 PM #14
    DeFactoCrippler
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    Lol at idiots telling people a +EV play is wrong thing to do. Some people know about fighting but don't know shit about handicapping. Some people know about handicapping but don't know shit about fighting.

    Some people don't know shit about either.
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  15. 05-26-12 03:38 PM #15
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeFactoCrippler View Post
    Lol at idiots telling people a +EV play is wrong thing to do. Some people know about fighting but don't know shit about handicapping. (Gabe) Some people know about handicapping but don't know shit about fighting.(Me)

    Some people don't know shit about either.(You)
    this ^
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  16. 05-26-12 03:53 PM #16
    ChronicGambler
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    Doesn't start 2nd @ -155, or under 1.5 looks more promising. Took the under at -200
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  17. 05-26-12 03:58 PM #17
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeFactoCrippler View Post
    Lol at idiots telling people a +EV play is wrong thing to do. Some people know about fighting but don't know shit about handicapping. Some people know about handicapping but don't know shit about fighting.

    Some people don't know shit about either.
    It would be stupid to take the +EV when the odds are wrong...
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  18. 05-26-12 03:59 PM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    It would be stupid to take the +EV when the odds are wrong...
    If the play is +EV how can the odds be wrong? Hey Nunya this is what you sound like when you talk about fighting, lol.
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  19. 05-26-12 04:06 PM #19
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeFactoCrippler View Post
    If the play is +EV how can the odds be wrong? Hey Nunya this is what you sound like when you talk about fighting, lol.
    Shit I totally got that wrong lol...thought you were abbreviating +even or something along those lines.

    Maybe I'm not getting what you said though, isn't basically any bet anyone makes +EV in their opinion?
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  20. 05-26-12 04:07 PM #20
    Imsmarterthanu
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    Shit I totally got that wrong lol...thought you were abbreviating +even or something along those lines.

    Maybe I'm not getting what you said though, isn't basically any bet anyone makes +EV in their opinion?
    .... just **** off
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  21. 05-26-12 04:13 PM #21
    DeFactoCrippler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    Shit I totally got that wrong lol...thought you were abbreviating +even or something along those lines.

    Maybe I'm not getting what you said though, isn't basically any bet anyone makes +EV in their opinion?
    Haha, ok sorry I get it.

    The poster was saying the fight was 50/50 (i.e both fighters at +100) so this would deem it a "no bet". But Nunya pointed out that you get could get a fighter for + money which would make your bet +EV because you are getting a fighter you capped at +100 odds at +120 odds, so why in the fock would that be a wrong bet?

    The poster saying the bet was wrong likened it to betting red or black on a roulette wheel. It is obviously different because you don't get +120 on red or black, lol. If you did the casino would be out of business very quickly.
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  22. 05-26-12 04:35 PM #22
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeFactoCrippler View Post
    Haha, ok sorry I get it.

    The poster was saying the fight was 50/50 (i.e both fighters at +100) so this would deem it a "no bet". But Nunya pointed out that you get could get a fighter for + money which would make your bet +EV because you are getting a fighter you capped at +100 odds at +120 odds, so why in the fock would that be a wrong bet?

    The poster saying the bet was wrong likened it to betting red or black on a roulette wheel. It is obviously different because you don't get +120 on red or black, lol. If you did the casino would be out of business very quickly.
    Gotcha, thanks. So Nunya/anyone do you really look at the odds of fights and put your own and make your bets using EV and Kelly Criterion and such? Is it basically all just math to you guys?
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  23. 05-26-12 05:25 PM #23
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crassus View Post
    Gotcha, thanks. So Nunya/anyone do you really look at the odds of fights and put your own and make your bets using EV and Kelly Criterion and such? Is it basically all just math to you guys?
    That's all I look at. I cap the fights ahead of time, figure out what I think the fair line should be, if the line at any point is off from that point (with a margin of error built in obviously) I bet that side at whatever kelly tells me. I am oftentimes not on the side I expect to be on when I cap the fight. (and by capping I obviously just mean checking out the dudes dicks at weigh-ins (beat you to it troll))
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  24. 05-26-12 05:26 PM #24
    cankid
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    I think Struve takes it
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  25. 05-26-12 05:32 PM #25
    DeFactoCrippler
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    (and by capping I obviously just mean checking out the dudes dicks at weigh-ins (beat you to it troll))
    My father was a master race handicapper and this was one of his best kept secrets. That and watching for which horse defecates right before the race. "He's running light!" is what my father would yell out.
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  26. 05-26-12 06:07 PM #26
    Crassus
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    That's all I look at. I cap the fights ahead of time, figure out what I think the fair line should be, if the line at any point is off from that point (with a margin of error built in obviously) I bet that side at whatever kelly tells me. I am oftentimes not on the side I expect to be on when I cap the fight. (and by capping I obviously just mean checking out the dudes dicks at weigh-ins (beat you to it troll))
    Interesting. So I guess I do something similar, but I don't really do the criterion or the actual EV calculations, I sort of just do them mentally and go from there. Do you have a cutoff? not betting once odds go too high/low or do you bet anything so long as the odds are justified in your eyes?
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  27. 05-26-12 06:24 PM #27
    NunyaBidness
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    If it has edge I bet it, even if the line is -2000 or higher. Obviously the higher the line the less chance of there being a an edge.
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  28. 05-26-12 07:53 PM #28
    zoo youk
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    Ticket#:61805
    May 26 07:00 PM     		Internet / -1 May 26 08:50 AM MU STRAIGHT BET
    [24522] S STRUVE -135
    (L JOHNSON vrs S STRUVE)    		 34 / 25
    Ticket#:62912
    May 26 07:00 PM     		Internet / -1 May 26 05:52 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
    [24522] S STRUVE -145
    (L JOHNSON vrs S STRUVE)    		 187 / 129
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  29. 05-26-12 09:12 PM #29
    zoo youk
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    Let's go
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  30. 05-26-12 09:18 PM #30
    zoo youk
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    Bannnnnnngggggg way to.easy
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  31. 05-26-12 09:21 PM #31
    hels
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    Great prediction and congrats on the win!!!
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  32. 05-26-12 09:27 PM #32
    zoo youk
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    thanks man. after I read the quote that Lavar said he refuses to train Braz JJ or practice his ground game I knew he was ****** for this fight. you can't just out slug guys every fight and Struve has the all around game that he could bang with him as well, he's got a chin you saw him eat that big uppercut and not get dazed.

    this kid is going to get a title shot down the line. very very well rounded
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  33. 05-26-12 09:29 PM #33
    zoo youk
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    Quote Originally Posted by fosho14 View Post
    Ya most of struve's fights just somehow end up on the ground, but he very rarely takes it there through his own will. Yet another reason why this is a completely 50/50 fight, why would anyone bet on this?
    thats why.

    cause Lavar knows nothing but to throw heavy fists.
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