[fosho14]

How much value is there in sass? This was mentioned earlier in other threads and there wasn't really many convincing points for why volkmann is this favored. The oddsmakers are basically suggesting that wrestling > jui-jitzu and that judges will score points for the person on top even if the person on bottom is constantly and aggressively attacking. Although this is unfortunately true, I don't feel like the books are giving enough respect to how effective sass's jui-jitzu is and how it is very foreseeable and reasonable that sass could submit volkmann on the ground. If the fight is contested standing both men are going to be equally vulnerable as both have very poor technique. Is this fight a lot closer than the odds suggest or am I mistaken? Why is everyone so confident that sass won't be able to submit Volkmann?

[Imsmarterthanu]

Alot closer

this is classic wrestler vs submission artist matchup , in this situation the wrestler is always susceptible to submissions on the ground especially when he lacks a good ability to put the ground game away with strikes.

[Luca Fury]

Really, Volkmann should be able to end up on top and not give Sass any space, and suffocate him en route to a decision. BUT, since both their striking skills are awful and Volkmann will surely take him down, that give Sass 15 minutes to lock up a sub.

As talked about on my podcast, is it likely? I'd say no. I favor Volkmann to win a decision very slightly. However, Sass' chances to possibly finish a sub at some point throughout a fight that will otherwise go to decision, are good enough for me to bet him.

That said, no point in betting Sass straight at +160, since if he wins, it will almost surely be by sub. Might as well just take the prop on Sass by sub when it comes out at something like +190 or better. I will be.

[BIGDAY]

Volkman has above average BJJ imo.

Does very well with scrambles.

[Rubber Guard]

No clue who wins that one. I like Sass, and I don't care for Volkmann. That said Volkmann is good at what he does. But didn't Efrain give him problems? If Volkmann wants to wrestle, at least Sass has the antidote for that. I will usually go with the strong wrestler who understands BJJ positions over a one-dimensional BJJ guy. But Sass surely matches up well and looks like he will at least have a chance to use his bread and butter.

[Rubber Guard]

That said, no point in betting Sass straight at +160, since if he wins, it will almost surely be by sub. Might as well just take the prop on Sass by sub when it comes out at something like +190 or better. I will be.

Would you also say no point in taking Volkmann straight? I don't see a finish. He won't sub Sass...and like you said he shouldn't give him any room on the ground to pull a sub off. So a GnP TKO which is already unlikely from Volkmann....is even more unlikely now vs. Sass.

I'd say if you like Volkmann...him by Dec. (although I'm sure it isn't much better odds) is the way to play it.

[Oblivian]

I don't think there is much value either way. My original hope was to bet Volkmann straight and then bet the prop of fights ends inside the distance. This acts as sort of a hedge if Sass wins, but I really think Volkmann can finish Sass as well. Volkmann's BJJ is underrated. I'm thinking Volkmann should be able to dominate him positionally and pass his guard. If this does happen, I question how Sass will look late. Volkmann is pretty good at attacking the neck with brabo chokes, but he doesn't always commit and uses it for positional dominance. If Sass is tired, I think he'll commit.

[TheCalculator]

I'm on the SASS train. Guy is a world-class submission artist.

[gabe]

I'm on the SASS train. Guy is a world-class submission artist.

He's the British Palhares.

[fosho14]

A small play on sass by submission sounds like fun . Either that or Volkmann by decision. I don't see Volkmann finishing this fight.

[sirchadwick1]

Volkmann is the play! Christmas by Decemberision.

[Luca Fury]

Would you also say no point in taking Volkmann straight? I don't see a finish. He won't sub Sass...and like you said he shouldn't give him any room on the ground to pull a sub off. So a GnP TKO which is already unlikely from Volkmann....is even more unlikely now vs. Sass.

I'd say if you like Volkmann...him by Dec. (although I'm sure it isn't much better odds) is the way to play it.

Yep, pretty much. I'd be surprised if Volkmann finished him. It's possible, but not likely at all.

[TheCalculator]

ESO!

He's the British Palhares.

[gabe]

ESO!

Employee Stock Option? lol

[TheCalculator]

Spanish for "that's it!"

[Imsmarterthanu]

Alot closer

this is classic wrestler vs submission artist matchup , in this situation the wrestler is always susceptible to submissions on the ground especially when he lacks a good ability to put the ground game away with strikes.

yep

[sirchadwick1]

Great sub by Sass. Wow, I thought Volkmann would have taken it the distance.

[fosho14]

Yup line was way off...

[illmatick]

Volkmann got me good. Focker.