UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 | Saturday 12.2.2017 (Detroit, Michigan)

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  • Shagdogy
    SBR MVP
    • 06-16-10
    • 3564

    #71
    Is it just me or is betting Gaethje by KO at +100 and then Alvarez to win as the dog not free money?

    If Gaethje wins, it will be by KO, right? Hard to imagine Eddie going all 3 and taking a beating enough to lose the decision without going down before it.
    Comment
    • firekillex
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-18-13
      • 6420

      #72
      i could see gaethje vs alvarez going to decision... this fight is just going to be bananas either guy could get a KO or it could be a hard fought close decision with both guys coming close to a finish, both super tough
      Comment
      • JIBBBY
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-10-09
        • 83686

        #73
        Originally posted by firekillex
        i could see gaethje vs alvarez going to decision... this fight is just going to be bananas either guy could get a KO or it could be a hard fought close decision with both guys coming close to a finish, both super tough
        I think it's gonna end in a KO one way or the other. Both are brawlers, Eddie will try and box maybe for a little while but Justin will walk him down forcing Eddie to brawl.. Eddie hits hard and Justin has very little head movement just saying...

        I'm actually giving Eddie Alveraz a chance at the KO himself in this fight.. No easy win for either fighter anyways.. I'm nervously going with my boy Gaethje and by KO but I'm not that confident.. We've seen both of these fighters badly rocked in past fights and both these guys have one punch KO power...






        Eddie



        Comment
        • JIBBBY
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-10-09
          • 83686

          #74
          MMA Mania prelim write ups...



          170 lbs.: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Sabah Homasi
          Abdul Razak Alhassan (7-1) more than lived up to his nickname with seven knockouts in less than 90 seconds apiece, including a 53-second obliteration of Charlie Ward in his Octagon debut. Dagestan’s Omari Akhmedov proved unexpectedly resilient, however, and defeated Alhassan by split decision at UFC Fight Night 109.
          Despite being two inches shorter than Homasi, “Judo Thunder” will have a one-inch reach advantage.
          One-and-done on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21, Sabah Homasi (11-6) scored three consecutive knockouts on the regional circuit before stepping up on short notice to face Tim Means at UFC 202. “The Problem” struggled badly with his opponent’s Muay Thai prowess and ultimately succumbed to strikes in the second round.
          He has knocked out eight professional opponents and submitted another two.
          This looks like a get-well fight for Alhassan from where I’m sitting. Homasi is going to give him the slugfest he wants and, judging by Homasi’s three professional (technical) knockout losses, wind up rather decisively on the wrong end of it.
          Alhassan desperately needs to fix his cardio and tighten up those home run swings if he wants to make a real impact in the Welterweight division, but anyone whom he can find with those fists of his is going down in a hurry. With Alhassan’s judo prowess stymieing Homasi’s hopes of grinding him down, Alhassan catches him in an exchange for another early finish.
          Prediction: Alhassan by first-round technical knockout
          205 lbs.: Dominick Reyes vs. Jeremy Kimball
          Dominick Reyes (7-0) earned viral fame with his savage head kick knockout of Jordan Powell — his third consecutive knockout in less than 100 seconds. He kept that streak alive in his UFC debut by flattening Joachim Christensen in 29 seconds to earn “Performance of the Night.”
          He stands four inches taller than Jeremy Kimball (15-6) at 6’4.”
          Fighting both his opponents and his seeming inability to keep his weight consistent, Kimball rattled off four straight wins before suffering a career-first knockout loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima in his short-notice UFC debut. He fared quite a bit better against Josh Stansbury, whom he knocked out in 81 seconds to earn “Performance of the Night.”
          Eleven of his professional wins, including five of his last six, have come by form of knockout.
          I’ll reiterate what I’ve said before: Kimball is not a light heavyweight. He’s a middleweight with weight-management issues. This means he’s damn quick compared to the rest of the division and is a skilled enough striker to make the most of that against lumbering guys like Josh Stansbury, but doesn’t seem like it’ll work well for him against a bigger man who can move well and deliver big punches.
          Reyes — to Kimball’s displeasure — is a bigger man who can move well and deliver big punches.
          The jury’s out on Reyes’ star potential until he proves he can handle a strong wrestler. Based on what he’s shown so far, though, he should be way too much for Kimball, chewing him up at range for an early finish.
          Prediction: Reyes by first-round technical knockout
          265 lbs.: Allen Crowder vs. Justin Willis
          Allen Crowder (9-2) — who took on Curtis Blaydes in 2015 — rattled off three consecutive first-round (technical) knockouts to earn a spot on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series.” Despite being more than a 2:1 underdog, he wore down Don’Tale Mayes with constant takedowns before stopping him in the third round.
          He stands one inch shorter than Justin Willis (5-1) at 6’2.”
          The latest Heavyweight product of American Kickboxing Academy (AKA), Willis saw a planned Octagon debut against Marcin Tybura go up in smoke because of complications with his weight cut. He wound up finally debuting in July against James Mulheron, whom Willis outstruck and outwrestled on his way to a sweep on the scorecards.
          “Big Pretty” has knocked out three professional opponents.
          In one corner, we have a wrestling specialist with a horrific gas tank. In the other, we have a much larger wrestler who trains at one of the sport’s top camps in AKA.
          Decisions, decisions.
          Willis just seems to have the edge everywhere the fight could conceivably go. Crowder is unlikely to take him down or get any opportunity to take control of the fight before Willis takes the fight where he wants it. Willis picks him off with counters and scores a heaping helping of takedowns on his way to an increasingly one-sided decision victory.
          Prediction: Willis via unanimous decision
          115 lbs.: Angela Magana vs. Amanda Cooper
          Angela Magana (11-8) entered TUF 20 on a two-fight losing streak and didn’t fare much better on the show, getting pounded out by Aisling Daly in the third round. Since then, she’s lost to Tecia Torres and Michelle Waterson, sent to the hospital after refusing to tap to a twister in training, and punched by Cris Cyborg (watch it) after waging a sustained cyberbullying campaign.
          This will be her first fight in more than two years.
          Team Claudia Gadelha’s third Strawweight pick on TUF 24, Amanda Cooper (2-3) defeated Jamie Moyle and Lanchana Green to reach the Finale. She has gone 1-2 in UFC itself, suffering submission losses to Tatiana Suarez and Cynthia Calvillo but defeating Anna Elmose by unanimous decision.
          She stands two inches taller than Magana at 5’2.”
          Cooper has been thoroughly underwhelming in UFC, but she’s accomplished a damn sight more than Magana, who’s in her mid-30s and hasn’t won a fight since 2011 Sure, Magana has wins over Jessica Aguilar and Barb Honchak, but those were almost a decade ago and both Aguilar and Honchak were early in their careers.
          This one comes down to takedowns. If Magana manages to get on top, she’s at least good enough to pick up the submission. With her layoff and losing streak, though, it’s hard to envision her getting to that point. Cooper’s top control wins her the decision.
          Prediction: Cooper via unanimous decision



          155 lbs.: Paul Feldervs. Charles Oliveira
          Paul Felder (14-3) burst onto the scene with a spinning back fist knockout of Danny Castillo in his second UFC appearance, only to hit a 2-3 skid that saw him stopped by Francisco Trinaldo. He recently got back to his bludgeoning ways, stopping Alex Ricci and Stevie Ray with brutal efficiency to earn consecutive “Fight of the Night” bonuses.
          “The Irish Dragon” has knocked out nine professional opponents and submitted one other.
          A 1-3 skid, which included two massive failures on the scale, sent Charles Oliveira (22-7) back to the Lightweight division after five years at 145 pounds. His return proved a triumphant one as he choked out Will Brooks midway through the first round, earning a performance bonus for which he was finally eligible.
          He replaces the injured Al Iaquinta on around one month’s notice.
          Oliveira is always going to be hit-and-miss considering his weight issues, mental lapses and the sheer aggression that leaves him vulnerable to submissions from less-credentialed grapplers, but he’s a damn good fighter. The key here, I believe, is his underrated wrestling — he has taken down the likes of Ricardo Lamas and Will Brooks, who are no slouches in that department.
          Felder is bigger and by far the more potent striker, but Oliveira has a penchant for winning fights he’s not supposed to and I’m not convinced “The Irish Dragon” can keep it standing long enough to bring that to bear. Oliveira scores an early takedown and transitions to the back for another submission victory.
          Prediction: Oliveira via first-round submission
          170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira vs. Yancy Medeiros
          Alex Oliveira (18-4-1) saw a career-best win over Will Brooks marred by failure on the scale, then struggled with Tim Means before an illegal knee ended things. He has since proven his mettle by submitting Means in a rematch and bouncing back from a tough first round to knock out Ryan LaFlare with one punch.
          “Cowboy” has knocked out 11 opponents and submitted another four.
          Hawaii’s Yancy Medeiros (14-4) made the move to Welterweight after a trio of tough fights, a questionable decision win over John Makdessi sandwiched between brutal losses to Dustin Poirier and Francisco Trinaldo. The move has paid early dividends with stoppage wins over Sean Spencer and Erick Silva, the former of which earned him “Performance of the Night.”
          He will give up one inch each of height and reach to “Cowboy.”
          Medeiros is absurdly game, has a keen eye for snatching submissions, and can do real damage on the feet. He’s also hopelessly easy to hit and has a propensity for getting dropped hard. He struggled against heavy punchers at lightweight and, unless the weight cut was a major factor in that, that doesn’t bode well for him against Oliveira.
          “Cowboy” is enormously strong, durable and powerful ... though his technique can be shaky. Medeiros is there to be hit and simply cannot stand up to that level of firepower. Oliveira leaves enough openings that a surprise Medeiros choke isn’t out of the question, but the likelier outcome is that we get a few minutes of brutal back-and-forth action before Oliveira finds the mark with his right hand and batters Medeiros for the finish.
          Prediction: Oliveira via first-round technical knockout
          155 lbs.: Drakkar Klose vs. David Teymur
          Drakkar Klose (8-0-1) — fighting out of The MMA Lab — overpowered “Lookin’ for a Fight” product Devin Powell in his Octagon debut, but entered his next fight with Marc Diakiese as an underdog. Heavy low kicks carried him to a split decision victory and established him as a prospect to watch at 155 pounds.
          He will give up three inches of reach to Sweden’s David Teymur (6-1).
          A decorated kickboxing background wasn’t enough to carry Teymur to victory on The Ultimate Fighter 22, as he lost a majority decision to teammate Marcin Wrzozek in the quarterfinals. He’s found significantly more success in the UFC itself with two knockout victories and a Fight of the Night decision over Lando Vannata.
          He has knocked out four opponents as a professional.
          This is a very, very good fight between two very, very good young prospects. Though Klose has the wrestling edge, I’ve got this for the Swede.
          Klose is still at the point in his development where he compensates for technical deficiencies with enthusiasm. He will straight-up charge at people to close the distance and Teymur is exponentially better at punishing that than the likes of Devin Powell. In addition, Teymur isn’t nearly as reckless as Diakiese and, as such, will present far fewer opportunities for high-power takedowns.
          Klose might still get him to the ground once or twice, but Teymur’s superior power and striking technique have me leaning his way. He shuts down enough of Klose’s wrestling offense and lands enough eye-catching shots to edge the decision.
          Prediction: Teymur via split decision
          115 lbs.: Felice Herrig vs. Cortney Casey
          Despite a loss to Randa Markos on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20, Felice Herrig (13-6) has come into her own in UFC, winning four of five bouts. Her last two fights have been her most impressive, as she upended top prospect Alexa Grasso before overwhelming Justine Kish in Oklahoma City.
          “Lil’ Bulldog” stands three inches shorter than Cortney Casey (7-4) at 5’4.”
          A winless (0-2) UFC start gave way to dominant stoppage wins over Cristina Stanciu and Randa Markos, propelling Casey into contendership. Claudia Gadelha proved too much to handle, but Casey again showed her skills with a one-sided decision over Jessica Aguilar in Dallas.
          “Cast Iron” has knocked out and submitted three professional opponents apiece.
          Herrig has undoubtedly improved leaps and bounds since she first joined UFC, showing strong striking and an ever-evolving grappling game. Casey may be just a bit too much for her; however, “Cast Iron” is massive for the weight and, unlike Kish, actually bothered to learn some technique to complement her enormous strength.
          Though Casey struggled with Gadelha, almost everyone in the division fares just about as well against “Claudinha” and she did manage to dominate a very capable grappler in Markos. Sheer strength carries her to victory as she walks Herrig down and does damage from top position.
          Prediction: Casey via unanimous decision
          Comment
          • firekillex
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-18-13
            • 6420

            #75
            id lean justin 60-40% over eddie if they brawl
            both have been in intense wars and have showed they can handle the pressure/ cardio

            the reason id lean justin over eddie is because strictly standing up he will use more weapons, his leg kicks are nasty and alvarez tends to only throw hands when he gets into a war , this fight is going to be amazing .... not even betting this scrap tbh i just wanna watch this as a fan
            Comment
            • JIBBBY
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-10-09
              • 83686

              #76
              Originally posted by firekillex
              id lean justin 60-40% over eddie if they brawl
              both have been in intense wars and have showed they can handle the pressure/ cardio

              the reason id lean justin over eddie is because strictly standing up he will use more weapons, his leg kicks are nasty and alvarez tends to only throw hands when he gets into a war , this fight is going to be amazing .... not even betting this scrap tbh i just wanna watch this as a fan
              Yup Cowboy Cerrone broke down Eddie with leg kicks.. Gaethje throws those same leg kicks and just as hard like Cowboy did against Eddie.... Eddie is gonna eat a bunch of leg kicks to the thigh area in this fight for sure if it lasts..



              Gaethje should begin to break down Eddie and drop him eventually if Eddie doesn't catch Justin G on the chin early on.. Longer the fight goes the more I'll like JG...

              Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-30-17, 03:58 PM.
              Comment
              • JollyRogerMMA
                SBR Hustler
                • 10-24-17
                • 76

                #77
                Has anyone seen the shit show known as TUF 26 finally ......... Both Oliveras getting a lot of love ... Yancy is live just because of Cowboys decisions will watch the weigh ins to see who i like.
                Comment
                • Thor4140
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-09-08
                  • 22296

                  #78
                  Originally posted by JIBBBY
                  Yup Cowboy Cerrone broke down Eddie with leg kicks.. Gaethje throws those same leg kicks and just as hard like Cowboy did against Eddie.... Eddie is gonna eat a bunch of leg kicks to the thigh area in this fight for sure if it lasts..



                  Gaethje should begin to break down Eddie and drop him eventually if Eddie doesn't catch Justin G on the chin early on.. Longer the fight goes the more I'll like JG...

                  Jibbers Eddie won the title off of a guy who throws bombs aka kicks. Eddie walked thru one right in the side. I thought those same things when i lost that bet. He has improved his defense since the Cerone fight. I’m with Fire here. Just a tough one to bet. I thought i saw a little quit in Eddie in the Dustin fight which won’t bold well for him this fight. I need to see that fight one more time. Sometimes a little drinky during these fights,distorts the memory. Tough to bet Justin the way he hangs that chin out there. I have to think Eddie has a little more power than Michael Johnson.
                  Comment
                  • Thor4140
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-09-08
                    • 22296

                    #79
                    Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                    Almost never uses it for as much as this is mentioned.
                    Do u think it is mention as much as Roy Nelsons black belt Rogan loves to talk about yet i haven’t saw much of it in twenty fights until maybe a little lately?
                    Comment
                    • Hugo de Naranja
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-14-16
                      • 14140

                      #80
                      Originally posted by Thor4140
                      Do u think it is mention as much as Roy Nelsons black belt Rogan loves to talk about yet i haven’t saw much of it in twenty fights until maybe a little lately?
                      Alvarez' wrestling if mentioned a lot. Nelson's black belt is another good one!
                      Comment
                      • Thor4140
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-09-08
                        • 22296

                        #81
                        Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                        Alvarez' wrestling if mentioned a lot. Nelson's black belt is another good one!
                        Another good one from Rogan was how great Tito’s gas tank was yet he gassed almost every time i saw him fight.
                        Comment
                        • Thor4140
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-09-08
                          • 22296

                          #82
                          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                          Alvarez' wrestling if mentioned a lot. Nelson's black belt is another good one!
                          We did get to see Eddies wrestling against Pettis if u stayed awake watching that. We get to see everyone’s wrestling against Pettis tho.
                          Comment
                          • Thor4140
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-09-08
                            • 22296

                            #83
                            Originally posted by turbozed
                            That Aldo line is a real head scratcher. How can anyone be a 3-1 favorite against Aldo. In his last 3 fights, guy gets flash KO'd, dominates Edgar, and then loses to Holloway. With current implied odds they're giving him a 27% chance to win the rematch? I don't think MMA works like that.
                            Here is my problem with this Turb. I like Holloway a lot but not at these odds. It is tough for me to switch against who i like just because of the odds. Although i like Holloway i just could never do it with these odds
                            I know if i do Aldo will all of a sudden remember he had a kicking game and he brings it with him to the fight. If u knew he was gonna use it this is a -120 Holloway fight. Not three to one.
                            Comment
                            • JIBBBY
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-10-09
                              • 83686

                              #84
                              Originally posted by Thor4140
                              Jibbers Eddie won the title off of a guy who throws bombs aka kicks. Eddie walked thru one right in the side. I thought those same things when i lost that bet. He has improved his defense since the Cerone fight. I’m with Fire here. Just a tough one to bet. I thought i saw a little quit in Eddie in the Dustin fight which won’t bold well for him this fight. I need to see that fight one more time. Sometimes a little drinky during these fights,distorts the memory. Tough to bet Justin the way he hangs that chin out there. I have to think Eddie has a little more power than Michael Johnson.
                              Eddie has certainly fought better fighters then Justin has faced also.. Like I said in an above post I give Eddie a chance.. Either guy can certainly finish if they connect clean... JG I also do believe is the more mentally strong fighter.. Eddie will break before Justin does if it comes down to a war...

                              Justin broke Michael Johnson after getting rocked with his sheer grit and toughness and that's not easy to do..





                              Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-30-17, 10:26 PM.
                              Comment
                              • UncleChael
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-30-13
                                • 3979

                                #85
                                Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                Eddie has certainly fought better fighters then Justin has faced also.. Like I said in an above post I give Eddie a chance.. Either guy can certainly finish if they connect clean... JG I also do believe is the more mentally strong fighter.. Eddie will break before Justin does if it comes down to a war...

                                Justin broke Michael Johnson after getting rocked with his sheer grit and toughness and that's not easy to do..





                                Damn your boy is bloody.
                                Comment
                                • JIBBBY
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-10-09
                                  • 83686

                                  #86
                                  MJ got beat up and bloodied in that fight.. ^^ MJ not my boy UNC although I do like him, I also like Eddie Alvarez when I've seen their interviews and what not.. Still doesn't mean I will bet on them ..

                                  All in on Justin.. I didn't change my Avatar picture for nothing!!! ..

                                  Comment
                                  • firekillex
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-18-13
                                    • 6420

                                    #87
                                    gaethje vs alvarez is not a fight to go big on regardless which side youre on.... brawling type of fight most likely which means either guy can win, whoever lands that first big shot and builds off that momentum will win

                                    much better spots to bet big on this card
                                    Comment
                                    • PaperTrail07
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-29-08
                                      • 20423

                                      #88
                                      Gaethje seems to have the better chin .....love alvarez but starting to think he peaked already.....
                                      Originally posted by firekillex
                                      gaethje vs alvarez is not a fight to go big on regardless which side youre on.... brawling type of fight most likely which means either guy can win, whoever lands that first big shot and builds off that momentum will win

                                      much better spots to bet big on this card
                                      Comment
                                      • UncleChael
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-30-13
                                        • 3979

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                        MJ got beat up and bloodied in that fight.. ^^ MJ not my boy UNC although I do like him, I also like Eddie Alvarez when I've seen their interviews and what not.. Still doesn't mean I will bet on them ..

                                        All in on Justin.. I didn't change my Avatar picture for nothing!!! ..

                                        Kinda remember you liking Michael Johnson on this one over your boy Justin Gaethje saying Gaethje is going to get knocked out in that fight..... IDK ...
                                        Comment
                                        • PaperTrail07
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-29-08
                                          • 20423

                                          #90
                                          I took MJ there....and honestly he had his chances....Kind of why I'm leaning Gaethje...EA may not have enough power to take him out lol..
                                          Originally posted by UncleChael
                                          Kinda remember you liking Michael Johnson on this one over your boy Justin Gaethje saying Gaethje is going to get knocked out in that fight..... IDK ...
                                          Comment
                                          • JIBBBY
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-10-09
                                            • 83686

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by UncleChael
                                            Kinda remember you liking Michael Johnson on this one over your boy Justin Gaethje saying Gaethje is going to get knocked out in that fight..... IDK ...
                                            Did I take MJ? Maybe I did... I honestly don't remember? Well I'm taking Gaethje now.. I browse thru my betting history later on today when I get a chance and see who I was on..
                                            Comment
                                            • firekillex
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-18-13
                                              • 6420

                                              #92
                                              jesus aldo and holloway looked TERRIBLE on the scale today
                                              holloway gonna have to head to 155 extremely soon by the looks of him today
                                              Comment
                                              • Shagdogy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-16-10
                                                • 3564

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by firekillex
                                                jesus aldo and holloway looked TERRIBLE on the scale today
                                                holloway gonna have to head to 155 extremely soon by the looks of him today
                                                Holloway got too good too young. Not gonna be able to stay in this class.
                                                Comment
                                                • Shagdogy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 3564

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by turbozed
                                                  Here's my writeup on Herrig/Casey:

                                                  Both Herrig and Casey seem to have grown by leaps and bounds since their UFC beginnings. While Herrig technically won her UFC debut, she has a TUF loss to Randa Markos and a loss to Tecia Torres in Invicta. After her loss to VanZant, people were writing her off as occupying the very bottom of the women's strawweight barrel as she closed as a underdog to perennial loser Kailin Curran.


                                                  Herrig has been pretty vocal about how combined health and mental issues have prevented her from performing. The list includes hormonal issues, gastrointestinal imbalances, nutritional deficiencies, anxiety, depression, and fatigue. Having addressed those issues, she promised that we would see a much better Herrig coming into the Curran fight and moving forward. Apparently, these changes made a difference as she steamrolled Curran, and won her next two fights against the heavily favored Grasso and slightly favored Kish.


                                                  Against Grasso, Herrig showed off improved striking and a good sense for winning rounds. Though being significantly overpowered, she thoroughly outgrappled and nearly finished Kish, literally making Kish shit her pants (which under many athletic commissions would've been scored a TKO victory and would've cashed my Herrig ITD bet).


                                                  Though starting her MMA career as a former kickboxer, she has only one TKO victory back in 2011. Without significant power, her striking is designed to score points. Not particularly strong for her division, Herrig has worked hard to improve her technical grappling and jiu jitsu skills.


                                                  Casey also had a rough going early in the UFC. Nobody faults her for losing after flying in on short notice to the UK to fight JoJo Calderwood. She also dropped her next fight to atomweight Seo Hee Ham in Korea. Only in her 3rd fight on home soil against euro debutante Cristina Stanciu was she able to pick up a win (Santicu would be dropped by the UFC soon after). After submitting Randa Markos by armbar only one month later, the UFC matched Casey up with #1 contender Claudia Gadelha. Too much too soon because she soundly lost that fight.


                                                  The fight with Gadelha also exposed some of Casey's weaknesses. At a significant wrestling disadvantage, Gadelha landed takedowns at will. One can make excuses for Casey getting tossed to the mat against one of the best TD artists in the division. However, she ended up on her back multiple times against both Jojo Caldwerood in her debut and against Jessica Aguilar 2 years and 5 fights later.


                                                  A lot of this propensity to get dumped on the ground is due to her striking style. In many of her fights, the action starts the same way: Casey blitzing forward with a 4 or 5 punch combination. It's become her MO in fights to blitz her opponent like this. The result has been that she has scored points when these combos land, but also it results in her running into a level change and being easily taken down. Calderwood and Aguilar didn't have to shoot doubles like Gadelha, Casey would just rush into them resulting in a relatively easy throw to the ground.


                                                  Although being on her back multiple times in fights (often in the same round), most of her opponents have been wary of her guard and upkicks. Calderwood and Gadelha let her up over and over. Aguilar's strategy was to lean forward and eat Casey's accurate upkicks. When she did get Casey to the ground and attempted to control her early in the fight, it seemed like Casey had a hard time getting back up (luckily for Casey the ref stood them up).


                                                  Casey is the more athletic and dynamic fighter, but she doesn't seem to have a gameplan as to how to win rounds against her opponents. She fights them all the same way: rush forward, be aggressive, and throw a lot. This along with her willingness to go to the ground will make it tough for her to beat Herrig.


                                                  Herrig's path to victory should be the same as the one she employed against Kish. And her corner's advice between the 2nd and 3rd rounds will apply to this fight as well. To paraphrase: "Take her down. Stay on top. Don't worry about being boring just win the fight." Although Casey may be better off her back technically than Kish, she also isn't as strong or explosive, and won't be able to power out bad positions. Although Casey will have her moments, Herrig always has the option to take it to the mat and be in control. Casey is too willing to let her opponents dictate the action, and Herrig has the fight IQ to do just enough on the ground to win rounds.


                                                  -140 Herrig may have some value. Although she likely wins by decision, there's a chance she can lock in a sub again, so the ML looks like a safer bet. For those looking for a hedge, Casey DEC +297. Herrig has technically never been stopped in her pro career (although she did tap to an armbar against Markos in TUF). Herrig is also much better grappler now.
                                                  Finally got to this one and I agree that Herrig has it in her to take this fight. I think Casey will have a bit of size on Herrig though. I think it's very important for Herrig to land a takedown early in the fight. That would keep Casey's aggressiveness at bay a little bit, and pump up Herrig's confidence. On the mat, I really like what I've seen from Herrig lately and I think she should be the much more dangerous fighter on the mat. Casey is not bad but it's all defensive and she can lose a lot of rounds being dumped and then getting up, again and again.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • firekillex
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-18-13
                                                    • 6420

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                    Holloway got too good too young. Not gonna be able to stay in this class.
                                                    holloway vs mcgregor at 45 for the crackhead world title
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Broxbomber
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 10-09-12
                                                      • 132

                                                      #96
                                                      Ngannou vs Overeem

                                                      I think Ngannou will KO Overeem. Ngannous power and Overeems chin seem like a good recipe for a Nganou KO. I think Overeem will fight cautious and make it out of round 1......So I’m betting Ngannou to finish in round 2 (+500) or round 3 (+1600). I like the odds. I put $100 on Ngannou round 2 and $50 Ngannou round 3. These are good sized bets for me at these odds.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • rsynweap84
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 06-24-16
                                                        • 622

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                        I'm just looking forward to the fight.. It's very hard to beat a fighter at this level twice.. I think Aldo will be more determined and make some adjustments...

                                                        Max Holloway is on a hella winning streak though so you never know?.. He just beat Aldo too.. No guarantees ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Max-Holloway-38671

                                                        I don't see Aldo trading blows in this fight so I'm calling it Aldo by points and by UN decision this second go around.. With ya JC on the Trilogy set up...

                                                        Aldo by points means Aldo going all 5 rounds, in which he has 2 rounds to finish Hellabeatdownway before he figures him out and does the same same damn thing he did last time, knock his aging brazilian head into tomorrow, da fuk jibbs...how the f*ck u even figure this fight...srsly, it's as clean cut as gathe v. eddy, simple logic here...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Sato
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-10-12
                                                          • 1201

                                                          #98
                                                          Overeem needs same gameplan he had vs Junior. Move around and dont engage in a brawl. By the looks of Ngannou could punch Overeems brain out of his skull. Stick and move baby.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JAKEPEAVY21
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 03-11-11
                                                            • 29267

                                                            #99
                                                            really fired up about this card fellas

                                                            I think Holloway and Ngannou will win but the odds are so high I might take a stab on Aldo and Overeem

                                                            also taking a stab on dogs Alvarez and Klose
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Hugo de Naranja
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-14-16
                                                              • 14140

                                                              #100
                                                              UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II Picks:
                                                              Justin Willis Round 2 TKO (Punches)
                                                              Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
                                                              Abdul Razak Alhassan Round 1 KO (Punch)
                                                              Amanda Cooper Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
                                                              Felice Herrig Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
                                                              David Teymur Round 2 TKO (Punches)
                                                              Alex Oliveira Round 2 TKO (Punches)
                                                              Charles Oliveira Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
                                                              Tecia Torres Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
                                                              Justin Gaethje Round 2 TKO (Leg Kicks)
                                                              Sergio Pettis Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
                                                              Alistair Overeem Round 2 TKO (Punches)
                                                              Max Holloway Round 3 TKO (Punches)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-14-16
                                                                • 14140

                                                                #101
                                                                UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II

                                                                Fight Pass Prelims:

                                                                Fight #1: Willis vs. Crowder (DEBUT)
                                                                Willis ITD (+260) 2u

                                                                Fight #2: Reyes vs. Kimball
                                                                Reyes Round 1 (+150) .5u
                                                                Reyes Submission (+979) .5u

                                                                Fight #3: Razak Alhassan vs. Homasi
                                                                Razak Alhassan+Homasi Under 1.5 (-125) 1.25u to win 1u
                                                                Razak Alhassan KO (-115) 2.875u to win 2.5u
                                                                Razal Alhassan Round 2 (+400) .5u

                                                                Fight #4: Cooper vs. Magana
                                                                Magana Submission (+1445) .5u

                                                                Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

                                                                Fight #5: Herrig vs. Casey
                                                                Herrig (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
                                                                Herrig ITD (+425) .5u
                                                                Herrig Round 3 (+1600) .25u

                                                                Hedge:
                                                                Casey Round 1 (+625) .5u

                                                                Fight #6: Teymur vs. Klose
                                                                Teymur KO/TKO (+295) 1u

                                                                Hedge:
                                                                Klose Decision (+250) 1u

                                                                Fight #7: Oliveira vs. Medeiros
                                                                Oliveira ITD (+123) 1u

                                                                Hedge:
                                                                Medeiros Submission (+980) .5u

                                                                Fight #8: Felder vs. Oliveira
                                                                Oliveira Submission (+225) 2u

                                                                Hedge(s):
                                                                Felder ITD (+164) 1u
                                                                Felder Submission (+1600) .25u

                                                                Main Card:

                                                                Fight #9: Torres vs. Waterson
                                                                Torres -3.5 (+185) 1u
                                                                Torres Submission (+1150) .5u

                                                                Hedge:
                                                                Waterson Submission (+1465) 1u

                                                                Fight #10: Gaethje vs. Alvarez
                                                                Gaethje ITD (+140) 1u
                                                                Gaethje Round 2 (+475) 1u
                                                                Gaethje Round 3 (+900) .5u
                                                                Gaethje Decision (+401) .5u

                                                                Hedge:
                                                                Alvarez ITD (+375) .5u

                                                                Fight #11: Cejudo vs. Pettis
                                                                Pettis (+225) 2u
                                                                Pettis Decision (+320) 1u

                                                                Hedge:
                                                                Cejudo ITD (+375) 1u

                                                                Fight #12: Ngannou vs. Overeem
                                                                Overeem (+217) 1.5u
                                                                Overeem ITD (+450) 1u

                                                                Fight #13: Holloway (C) vs. Aldo
                                                                Holloway Decision (+340) 2u
                                                                Holloway Round 3 (+667) 1.5u
                                                                Holloway Round 4 (+1050) .5u
                                                                Holloway Round 5 (+1550) .5u

                                                                Hedge(s):
                                                                Aldo (+265) 1u
                                                                Aldo KO/TKO (+1040) .5u

                                                                Straight Parlays:
                                                                A. Oliveira/Razak Alhassan (+115) 1u
                                                                Herrig/Ngannou+Overeem Under 1.5 (+213) 1u
                                                                Gaethje/Pettis/Overeem/Holloway (+1959) .5u

                                                                Prop Parlays:
                                                                A. Oliveira+Medeiros WGD/Felder+ C. Oliveira WGD (+125) 2u
                                                                Reyes ITD/Teymur (+130) 1u
                                                                Willis/Reyes ITD/Alhassan KO (+288) .5u
                                                                Cooper ITD/Herrig/Teymur (+576) .5u
                                                                A. Oliveira+Medeiros WGD/C. Oliveira/Torres -3.5 (+631) .5u

                                                                Full Card Props:
                                                                Gaethje+Alvarez FOTN (+300) 1u
                                                                Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+489) 1u
                                                                Felder Fastest KO/TKO (+1100) .25u
                                                                Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1381) .5u
                                                                Medeiros Fastest Submission (+2500) .25u

                                                                Multi-Event Parlays:
                                                                Johns/Gaethje (+102) 2u
                                                                Torres/Cyborg (+119) 5u
                                                                Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 12-02-17, 12:48 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Kermit
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 09-27-10
                                                                  • 32555

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

                                                                  Fight #5: Herrig vs. Casey
                                                                  Herrig (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
                                                                  Herrig ITD (+425) .5u
                                                                  Herrig Round 3 (+1600) .25u

                                                                  Herrig is my biggest play on the whole card.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                                    • 14140

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by Kermit
                                                                    Herrig is my biggest play on the whole card.
                                                                    Schweet
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • turbozed
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-15-08
                                                                      • 2435

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Overeem SUB is at +1430, if that interests anybody
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • turbozed
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 10-15-08
                                                                        • 2435

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Alvarez TKO line is +515. That's absurd IMO
                                                                        Comment
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