[JOSHKROTCHNECK]

Good video bro. Way too much bitching in this thread

Anyway, I think these guys are far too similar to make a good prediction. Their skill sets match up well and fights like this are a nightmare to try and predict just like kos/hendricks on ufc on fox 3. I cant see a viable path for either fighter as virtually anything could happen, both could sub one another both could outpoint one another, its really hard to get an angle on two stylistically similar guys. I think it will come down to execution of technique and athleticism which I would have to give to porier but only slightly.

I much prefer Stephens as a dog. I think he matches up well with cowboy. Pettis seems like a better version of cerrone and stephens did very well against pettis and resorted pettis to shooting for the takedown. Cerrones hands are very unimpressive and whilst he makes up for this with his MT technique and effective use of range, stephens is good at closing the distance and exploding forward. When they exchange hands cerrone is in for some trouble

[JOSHKROTCHNECK]

I'm liking a porier, stephens, cormier parlay.

[Vitooch]

LOL. That still doesn't address the fact that all of his opponents have been one-dimensional.

Grispi has terrible stand up. Garza has terrible TDD. Young & Holloway have weak ground games. He worked Grispi on the feet. He worked Young, Holloway & Garza on the ground. Bravo.

He was getting worked by Grispi on the ground, Young (and arguably Holloway) on the feet. He got worked by Castillo in the WEC. Sure Castillo is 10 pounds heavier and Poirier was pretty green, but Danny isn't a world beater at 155 - he's a middle tier talent at best. I'll cut Dustin some slack for that loss but Poirier's looked great because he's been opportunistic about taking/keeping the fight to where he wants when he's in trouble against one-dimensional guys.

When he fights someone who's as skilled a counter-striker on the feet as KZ 2.0 has shown and has very good TDD fundamentals, good scrambling, aggressive GnP & unconventional submissions, it means Poirier better finish the fight early because his workrate drops off precipitously and KZ will have the distinct cardio advantage as this fight goes into the third round and beyond.

This isn't a linear stylistic matchup. You have to tease out a lot of impressions from limited footage of two young fighters who grow considerably between fights. But I think KZ has matured more than Dustin has in the past year or so and the shock factor that oblivious bettors (read: drones who can't project fighters' growth & stylistic matchups and then just blame shit on their fighter crapping the bed) will be saying "holy shit, I didn't know he could do that" will more likely be said about Chan-Sung Jung, who only has footage of a brief KO to show for his improvements at KTT/TAM over the past year.

Poirier is a highly skilled FW. I've given him his props in my video. But he doesn't beat the KZ 75%+ of the time in a 5 round fight.

Does Dustin win this 50% or slightly more? Probably... But only ignorant "gurus" bet "winners" at -325 while disregarding the probability of it being a close to 50/50 5-round fight versus at least a 75/25 split as the odds suggest.

I can see youre still upset with my innocent joke and Luca Fury, so I won't bother with a response.

[Luca Fury]

I'm liking a porier, stephens, cormier parlay.

But why not just bet Stephens and Cormier straight since they're dogs, instead of a risky parlay like that? Only one would need to win for you to make a profit. Then you could parlay Poirier with another fairly safe guy like TJ Grant.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I can see youre still upset with my innocent joke and Luca Fury, so I won't bother with a response.

That's all you've got?

Why do I even bother replying to "MMA experts" like you when you have no counter arguments?

Waste of my time.

[Vitooch]

I told you...the wrestling advantage Poirier possesses leds me to believe he wins that fight most of the time..

Unless Zombie's BJJ off his back is much better than I previously assumed, I see Poirier pounding the Zombie with GnP, setting up his submission game.

If Poirier is not able to take the Zombie down, I think he has a technical boxing advantage.

I could be wrong. It's just my opinion. Don't see why youre being a dick.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Good video bro. Way too much bitching in this thread

Anyway, I think these guys are far too similar to make a good prediction. Their skill sets match up well and fights like this are a nightmare to try and predict just like kos/hendricks on ufc on fox 3. I cant see a viable path for either fighter as virtually anything could happen, both could sub one another both could outpoint one another, its really hard to get an angle on two stylistically similar guys. I think it will come down to execution of technique and athleticism which I would have to give to porier but only slightly.

If you thought the fight would be that close, wouldn't that warrant a play on KZ by your logic?

I seriously hope you are not an another underage kid or friends with the OP, because we raype little boys around here. I dont know why I hate little fanboy snots so much. Maybe I just hate myself for the homosexual attraction I feel towards them.

[Luca Fury]

If you thought the fight would be that close, wouldn't that warrant a play on KZ by your logic?

I seriously hope you are not an another underage kid or friends with the OP, because we raype little boys around here. I dont know why I hate little fanboy snots so much. Maybe I just hate myself for the homosexual attraction I feel towards them.

No fanboys should be betting. You need to be unbiased to be successful, but the OP is clearly biased. Hyping everything KZ does and downplaying everything Poirier does. Then bashes Dustin for fighting one-dimensional guys, when KZ has only fought one-dimensional guys too. All signs of a blind fanboy.

[DeFactoCrippler]

No fanboys should be betting. You need to be unbiased to be successful, but the OP is clearly biased. Hyping everything KZ does and downplaying everything Poirier does. Then bashes Dustin for fighting one-dimensional guys, when KZ has only fought one-dimensional guys too. All signs of a blind fanboy.

Shit. you actually watched the whole video?

[JOSHKROTCHNECK]

If you thought the fight would be that close, wouldn't that warrant a play on KZ by your logic?

I seriously hope you are not an another underage kid or friends with the OP, because we raype little boys around here. I dont know why I hate little fanboy snots so much. Maybe I just hate myself for the homosexual attraction I feel towards them.

No your right. At that value in a near coin toss KZ definitely has the edge based on value. I'd rather focus just on who I think can win the fight rather than focusing too much on value and I do feel porier has more tools to get the job done. Betting KZ just because I think he has a good chance and he is at long odds, is not personally how I do things. Can see the rationale behind it though.

As for raping little kids shit .. OK bro, dont know where your going with that.

[JOSHKROTCHNECK]

But why not just bet Stephens and Cormier straight since they're dogs, instead of a risky parlay like that? Only one would need to win for you to make a profit. Then you could parlay Poirier with another fairly safe guy like TJ Grant.

Thanks for the advice, i've already put a single down on cormier and am contemplating doing the same with stephens but i'm not fully convinced myself yet that cerrone has no way of winning. Can see cerrone by sub or maybe he keeps the thing at range and out points stephens. I feel cormier im pretty sure on as close to sure as you can be betting so putting stephens as a dog with two near certainties would pump up the odds. Whilst if I just put a single on stephens, I win less but lose the same.

Who do you like for stephens/cerrone and cormier/barnett ?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

If you thought the fight would be that close, wouldn't that warrant a play on KZ by your logic?

I seriously hope you are not an another underage kid or friends with the OP, because we raype little boys around here. I dont know why I hate little fanboy snots so much. Maybe I just hate myself for the homosexual attraction I feel towards them.

I'll f*ck you till you love me f*ggot

[Luca Fury]

Shit. you actually watched the whole video?

No I watched part of it and had to turn it off. From what little I saw, that was his reasoning.

[fosho14]

The way I see things:

Jung has some of thee worst stand up in the division, or maybe the 2nd worse trumped only by leonard garcia. Getting the nick name korean zombie is not a good thing, and the reasoning behind it is very fitting because he's demonstrated some of the sloppiest technique (on the feet not the ground) that I've ever seen inside the octagon. Yes, I know he knocked out hominick but please lets be honest here. We all know mark did not respect jung in the slightest and planned to run out there and make a brutal statement towards a much lesser opponent but foolishly he paid the price. I mean you saw how hominick ran out there like a complete idiot with no defense, it was mind boggling. Earning a 10 second flash KO does not make jung the "zombie 2.0." His stand up has looked horrific in every other fight he's been in. People are buying into this zombie hype waaay too much. Him crafting poems and written declarations about how he's vowed to never fight wild again does not mean he won't, because his skills are fundamentally too limited to fight any other way even if he doesn't want to. Poirier will have the striking advantage on the feet and he will have enough wrestling to maintain top position on the ground. The only way I see jung winning this fight is a submission off his back because his jui-jitzu is proficient so I will give jung that. So when you factor in all that information, no the fight is not a 50/50 fight and in my opinion his chances are even worse than a 75/25 split. The line should be more like -500 for poirer, so I'm not seeing any value in Jung what-so-ever.

[Luca Fury]

The way I see things:

Jung has some of thee worst stand up in the division, or maybe the 2nd worse trumped only by leonard garcia. Getting the nick name korean zombie is not a good thing, and the reasoning behind it is very fitting because he's demonstrated some of the sloppiest technique (on the feet not the ground) that I've ever seen inside the octagon. Yes, I know he knocked out hominick but please lets be honest here. We all know mark did not respect jung in the slightest and planned to run out their and make a brutal statement but foolishly he paid the price. This does not make the jung the "zombie 2.0." His stand up has looked horrific in every other fight he's been in. People are buying into this zombie hype waaay too much. Him crafting poems and written declarations about how he's vowed to never fight wild again does not mean he won't, because his skills are fundamentally too limited to fight any other way. Poirier will have the striking advantage on the feet and he will have enough wrestling to maintain top position on the ground. The only way I see jung winning this fight is a submission off his back because his jui-jitzu is proficient. So when you factor in all that information, no the fight is not a 50/50 fight and in my opinion his chances are even worse than a 75/25 split. The line should be more like -500 for poirer, so I'm not seeing any value in Jung what-so-ever.

I totally agree with you. 75/25 is about how I have it too. Dustin is as good or better than KZ everywhere, including chin.

Is there a more overrated fighter right now the KZ? That's a serious question. I honestly can't think of a more overrated guy out there right now.

[fosho14]

Is there a more overrated fighter right now the KZ? That's a serious question. I honestly can't think of a more overrated guy out there right now.

lol. Not even close. I know mainstream mma fans are fickle but jesus christ this jung hype is ridiculous.

[Luca Fury]

lol. Not even close. I know mainstream mma fans are fickle but jesus christ this jung hype is ridiculous.

I know! Looks what he's done in the UFC.

Yes, he should have beat Garcia, but it was still a very competitive fight. Garcia should be like 1-10 in his last 11 fights, so being competitive with him, even if you win, isn't too good.

Then he got KO'd by Roop who is mediocre at everything, has a glass jaw and little striking power. He's never knocked down anyone, let alone KO'd someone, but he KO'd KZ with one strike. And before the KO, he was handily winning.

Then he rematched Garcia and tapped him, but, like I said, Garcia should be like 1-10 in his last 11 fights if it wasn't for all his robbery wins.

Then he beat Hominick who has a glass jaw, just lost his trainer (Tompkins), and was overly aggressive. Then Mark got worked by a bloated 135er in Eddie Yagin.

That's his UFC/WEC run, and aside from that, he's fought no one notable. His resume is not impressive AT ALL. Sure, Poirier didn't fight a murderer's row either, but his competition is a good amount better.

The combined UFC record of KZ's opponents is 4-11. It should be 3-12, but Garcia has a robbery win over Nam Phan.

Conversely, Poirier's opponent's combined UFC record is 7-8. Like I said, he hasn't fought a bunch of elite guys either, but 7-8 is WAY better than 3-12

Not to mention, Poirier's only loss was to Danny Castillo at a higher weight class. He lost that fight simply because he was out-wrestled by a great wrestler, yet he still managed to win a round.

Dustin is more proven, has fought better opposition, has looked more impressive doing so, and has a very good style to beat KZ. Saying this fight is a coin flip makes ZERO sense to me. Poirier is rightfully the sizable favorite.

Also, Poirier's performance against a Jason Young, who is a very good boxer, is grossly misconstrued. People act like Poier won a robbery there, when he rightfully won the unanimous decision. 2 of the judges scored it 30-27 for him with the other had it 29-29 for him. My former co-worker, Sherdog's Jordan Breen, also scored it 30-27 for Poirier.

People expected Poirier to cruise in that fight, so they were surprised that Young was able to be competitive. This caused them to overrated his offense.

We see this happen time and time again. Look at the first Machida/Shogun fight, for example. People act like Shogun slaughtered him, when really, it was a VERY close, competitive decision.

[bjpenn85]

what about his win over omigawa, that win doesnt count? Some good points here.

[bjpenn85]

I can also make a case for KZ by undermining dustins win. Look at Grispi now and, he lost the fight standing against holloway and young. who is micklewright? One win over pablo garca, wow? Look at jung, he won over omigawa and Koed hominick and even tho only edging out garcia the first match, he came in beat garcia for the second tim with conviction.

Dustin should be the fav, yes. A bit stronger, a bit faster, -300? no no no

[fosho14]

I see your point bjpenn. As far as the case I was making with my post, I was speaking about the inherent skill set of each fighter and why the zombies chances of pulling it out are slim to none based on my reasoning. Unless we're analyzing elite fighters with a rich history of facing consistent quality competition, comparing records can sometimes leave you with more variables and question marks with the outcome compared to when you initially started breaking things down to begin with. I think both of us can agree that neither fighter has barreled through a series of top flight opponents, so based on that we have to go by what we have seen in their abilities so far and how that will translate against each other. Personally I don't feel like Jung has a chance, and can't really envision a single way that he wins. He has a small chance of winning by submission in a scramble maybe. How do you him winning bjpenn?

[Mimialex]

I totally agree with you. 75/25 is about how I have it too. Dustin is as good or better than KZ everywhere, including chin.

Is there a more overrated fighter right now the KZ? That's a serious question. I honestly can't think of a more overrated guy out there right now.

totally agree with you! KZ is just a beast. On the contrary Poirier is smart and seems to really know what he is doing and why he's doing that. I'm glad to see that somebody else expresses this opinion.

[Luca Fury]

totally agree with you! KZ is just a beast. On the contrary Poirier is smart and seems to really know what he is doing and why he's doing that. I'm glad to see that somebody else expresses this opinion.

Yeah, I've been fond of Poirier for a while now. Before he even made his WEC debut, I was touting him as a great prospect when I co-hosting on Sherdog Radio. So far, he's lived up to that, and I definitely expect him to keep doing so against Jung.

He won't beat Aldo, though. Koch would give him a tough fight too, based on styles, although Poirier might still be able to win.

[bjpenn85]

i see poireer winning everywhere. The fact is, i get + 300 on a fighter that should be quite evenly matched with his opponent., i would never put 10 units without a solid hedge. Its a value bet for me.

[Mimialex]

Yeah, I've been fond of Poirier for a while now. Before he even made his WEC debut, I was touting him as a great prospect when I co-hosting on Sherdog Radio. So far, he's lived up to that, and I definitely expect him to keep doing so against Jung.

He won't beat Aldo, though. Koch would give him a tough fight too, based on styles, although Poirier might still be able to win.

I agree with you but why do you give Poirier such a little chance against Aldo? I've already said somewhere that for me Jung-Poirier event is just a warming up given to Poirier before the fight with Aldo. Moreover I saw some ratings where highest persantage of votes is given to Poirier. This site is one of my favourites, for example, and here they give poirier 65%. http://predictfight.com/compare/04bf588798490f4ab70 check this out)))
Do you think I'm mistaken? Well anyway Aldo is a true champ and I won't be so surprised if he finally wins!

[Luca Fury]

I agree with you but why do you give Poirier such a little chance against Aldo? I've already said somewhere that for me Jung-Poirier event is just a warming up given to Poirier before the fight with Aldo. Moreover I saw some ratings where highest persantage of votes is given to Poirier. This site is one of my favourites, for example, and here they give poirier 65%. http://predictfight.com/compare/04bf588798490f4ab70 check this out)))
Do you think I'm mistaken? Well anyway Aldo is a true champ and I won't be so surprised if he finally wins!

I think Aldo is better EVERYWHERE. Much better striking, wrestling, speed, timing and power. A bit better footwork and reflexes. Bit better at BJJ too. I know we haven't really seen Aldo's BJJ in a fight, but I've heard from a brazilian journalist who's seen him train on many occasions that Jose's BJJ is sick. Aldo's cardio is also better and they seem to both have good chins.

So, yeah. Aldo will outclass him.

[fosho14]

i get + 300 on a fighter that should be quite evenly matched with his opponent

If he was evenly matched then ya I agree, that would be a value bet, but even you think he's going to be outclassed everywhere so I'm confused by the play. What are you hedging with? Does that mean that we should just take dogs everytime who stand very little chance of winning because they pay out more if the fluke just happens to occur? Just a bit confused by your logic.

[bjpenn85]

Its to even for it to be +300 on KZ. I probably play dustin inside distance. If dustin beats KZ easily going into the 3 round i may be thinking of the decision prop. Somtimes dogs at +300 dosnt stand a chance, in this fight KZ feels like the right play. They are both top 10 feather weights.

[NunyaBidness]

Is there a more overrated fighter right now the KZ? That's a serious question. I honestly can't think of a more overrated guy out there right now.

You sure?

[Vaughany]

You sure?

lol

[sideloaded]

Luca Fury
Pro MMA Gambler

[FightFightFight]

He is a pro. Soon maybe even able to afford to move out of moms house.

[Luca Fury]

You sure?

He finally impressed me. He looked MUCH improved tonight. 10x the fighter he was before. Very impressive stuff from him.

Lost my bet on Poirier, but won on Dos Anjos, Grant, Rivera and Jabouin bets, plus my Amir hedge. Lost on Lopez and Yang in bad decisions, but they were underdogs, so it doesn't matter much. Also lost my flyer on Stephens.

Got way more right than I did wrong. Only fights I picked bad on were Stephen and Poirier. Did excellent on the other 10.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I totally agree with you. 75/25 is about how I have it too. Dustin is as good or better than KZ everywhere, including chin.

Is there a more overrated fighter right now the KZ? That's a serious question. I honestly can't think of a more overrated guy out there right now.

now bow your head in shame...

Zombie's the real deal...

[Wanna Bet On It?]

LOL. That still doesn't address the fact that all of his opponents have been one-dimensional.

Grispi has terrible stand up. Garza has terrible TDD. Young & Holloway have weak ground games. He worked Grispi on the feet. He worked Young, Holloway & Garza on the ground. Bravo.

He was getting worked by Grispi on the ground, Young (and arguably Holloway) on the feet. He got worked by Castillo in the WEC. Sure Castillo is 10 pounds heavier and Poirier was pretty green, but Danny isn't a world beater at 155 - he's a middle tier talent at best. I'll cut Dustin some slack for that loss but Poirier's looked great because he's been opportunistic about taking/keeping the fight to where he wants when he's in trouble against one-dimensional guys.

When he fights someone who's as skilled a counter-striker on the feet as KZ 2.0 has shown and has very good TDD fundamentals, good scrambling, aggressive GnP & unconventional submissions, it means Poirier better finish the fight early because his workrate drops off precipitously and KZ will have the distinct cardio advantage as this fight goes into the third round and beyond.

This isn't a linear stylistic matchup. You have to tease out a lot of impressions from limited footage of two young fighters who grow considerably between fights. But I think KZ has matured more than Dustin has in the past year or so and the shock factor that oblivious bettors (read: drones who can't project fighters' growth & stylistic matchups and then just blame shit on their fighter crapping the bed) will be saying "holy shit, I didn't know he could do that" will more likely be said about Chan-Sung Jung, who only has footage of a brief KO to show for his improvements at KTT/TAM over the past year.

Poirier is a highly skilled FW. I've given him his props in my video. But he doesn't beat the KZ 75%+ of the time in a 5 round fight.

Does Dustin win this 50% or slightly more? Probably... But only ignorant "gurus" bet "winners" at -325 while disregarding the probability of it being a close to 50/50 5-round fight versus at least a 75/25 split as the odds suggest.

^^^^^

The bolded paragraph says it all. Some so-called betting experts are drones (fighter X > Y everywhere. Oh really?!) while others on here can envision the fight dynamics before it happens.

Nothing makes me happier than to see the haters say how impressed they were with KZ's improvement. That just shows how clueless you are at seeing fighter's adjustments. Getting ridiculed for describing KZ's metamorphosis: who's laughing now?

Haters gonna hate. Wanna Bet's gonna cash.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Haters gonna hate. Wanna Bet's gonna cash.

Oh no you didn't...!

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