Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series: Week 4

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-31-17, 04:06 PM

I've done a little bit of research on this card. Here's how I might cap it:

Hawes (-140) vs Marquez (+120)
Gray (+190) vs Phillips (-220)
Candelario (-120) vs Candido (+100)
Arnett (-170) vs Davis (+150)
Castaneda (-140) vs Leialoha (+120)

**Shagdogy** · 07-31-17, 05:42 PM

*Hawes/Marquez almost impossible to get a good picture of. Hard to cap that fight confidently.

*Gray/Phillips looks like a coming out party for Phillips. He could win the contract. He keeps a ridiculous pace, Has some fluid and varied strikes, and good physical strength in grappling exchanges. Gray has great BJJ but he's gonna struggle here against the stronger guy IMO. He also hasn't fought in 2 years. Phillips is the "it factor" guy. Also the under should be looked at in this fight. These guys have gone to the 2nd round only like once or twice combined in probably 20+ fights if you include their amateur careers.

*candelario/candido again almost impossible to cap. Candelario looks pretty good but Candido has a world class skill. Hard to know much else.

*Arnett/Davis. Looks pretty close. Arnett more physically gifted but his chin is a question mark for me (seen him wobbled a few times, even though he has no KO losses) and Barnett seems to like to brawl. Barnett is more of an aggressor and throws high volume lots of combos. He could stop Arnett early, but he definitely slows in the 2nd or 3rd. Arnett also has some power of his own. Close fight. I lean Barnett slightly just cause the format of these fights makes these guys inclined to brawl more which favors him.

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-31-17, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

*Hawes/Marquez almost impossible to get a good picture of. Hard to cap that fight confidently.

*Gray/Phillips looks like a coming out party for Phillips. He could win the contract. He keeps a ridiculous pace, Has some fluid and varied strikes, and good physical strength in grappling exchanges. Gray has great BJJ but he's gonna struggle here against the stronger guy IMO. He also hasn't fought in 2 years. Phillips is the "it factor" guy. Also the under should be looked at in this fight. These guys have gone to the 2nd round only like once or twice combined in probably 20+ fights if you include their amateur careers.
Yea, this could be a fight to showcase Phillips' skills.
*candelario/candido again almost impossible to cap. Candelario looks pretty good but Candido has a world class skill. Hard to know much else.

*Arnett/Davis. Looks pretty close. Arnett more physically gifted but his chin is a question mark for me (seen him wobbled a few times, even though he has no KO losses) and Barnett seems to like to brawl. Barnett is more of an aggressor and throws high volume lots of combos. He could stop Arnett early, but he definitely slows in the 2nd or 3rd. Arnett also has some power of his own. Close fight. I lean Barnett slightly just cause the format of these fights makes these guys inclined to brawl more which favors him.

I've seen Arnett fight, he seems a lot quicker and slicker than Davis. When you say Barnett, do you mean Davis?Yea, your probably right. Marquez looks pretty good. I noticed that Marquez said in an interview he considered quitting MMA, while Hawes said that he wants to be UFC champion.

**Shagdogy** · 07-31-17, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I've seen Arnett fight, he seems a lot quicker and slicker than Davis. When you say Barnett, do you mean Davis?Yea, your probably right. Marquez looks pretty good. I noticed that Marquez said in an interview he considered quitting MMA, while Hawes said that he wants to be UFC champion.

LOL yeah Barnett = Brandon Davis. No clue why my brain farted and landed on "Barnett." Anyway, I lean Davis slightly in that fight because I don't trust Arnett's chin fully and I think Davis is the better brawler.

About Marquez, he should be the bigger guy here. He has fought LHW where Hawes is a true MW.

The only guy I'm really looking to bet is Phillips. He looks legit to me and his physical strength advantage makes it a real tough matchup for Gray IMO.

**turbozed** · 07-31-17, 10:48 PM

Lines are out for this event. Below were the opening numbers:

Main Event | Middleweight | 185 lbs
Julian Marquez -120
Phil Hawes -120
Over 1.5 -175
Under 1.5 +135
---------------
Co-Main Event | Bantamweight | 135 lbs
James Gray -110
Kyler Phillips -130
Over 1.5 -110
Under 1.5 -130
----------------
Main Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs
Carlos Candelario -110
Ronaldo Candido -130
Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100
----------------
Main Card | Featherweight | 205 lbs
Brandon Davis +135
Austin Arnett -175
Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
----------------
Main Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs
Cheyden Leialoha +145
John Castaneda -185
Over 1.5 -190
Under 1.5 +150

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 12:46 AM

Hope you guys got Phillips at the opener. I'm still waiting for the line but looks like -185 or so now. I will be on Phillips anyway as soon as I can get the line.

**turbozed** · 08-01-17, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I've done a little bit of research on this card. Here's how I might cap it:

Hawes (-140) vs Marquez (+120)
Gray (+190) vs Phillips (-220)
Candelario (-120) vs Candido (+100)
Arnett (-170) vs Davis (+150)
Castaneda (-140) vs Leialoha (+120)

I've only taken a look at Arnett/Davis, Castaneda/Leialoha, and Phillips/Gray but those lines look pretty spot on based on my analysis too. Surprised Phillips opened at -130 but didn't get it in time. Down to -185 now. I might put something on Leialoha if the price keeps getting better. Leialoha is a bit of a mystery except that he will probably have the edge in athleticism and that he trains with Holloway. I've seen enough from Castaneda to not be too impressed with anything besides his grit. He was losing many of his recent Combate fights early and all of his opponents made mistakes that cost them the fight.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-01-17, 09:28 AM

By far, Phillips is the best bet at -215. This is a setup fight for him.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-01-17, 10:04 AM

I put a small bet on Leialoha at +160. The rest don't seem that good. Candelario could be a good one at +180, I capped him as a small favorite but I'm having 2nd thoughts on that one.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 02:17 PM

Rich I'm with you. Phillips best bet with stab at Leialoha. I will also be on the under 1.5 in Phillips/Gray.

I was ready and set for these lines, then my book doesn't open them until a minute ago. Coulda got Phillips at -130 and instead I'm on -225. Sucks. Oh well. He should win.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 02:29 PM

Phillips -225, 4.5u
Phillips/Gray u1.5, -130, 1.5u
Leialoha +150, .66u

Good luck everyone. Risking my undefeated 4-5u bet record on Phillips. My intention was 3u before the line moved so much and this is a little bit of spite with me betting on tilt, but I do believe Phillips is deserving of the -225 if not more and I think he's the young gun with the special talent. Kid is a bred fighter. Gray has great BJJ but his camp is not strong and he hasn't fought in 2 years. Who has been getting him ready for this fight? I'll take Phillips from MMA lab. Fingers crossed.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-01-17, 02:51 PM

Yep, we're thinking the same way Shag. I like that under bet too, i might join there. Phillips by KO or Gray by sub.

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Rich I'm with you. Phillips best bet with stab at Leialoha. I will also be on the under 1.5 in Phillips/Gray.

I was ready and set for these lines, then my book doesn't open them until a minute ago. Coulda got Phillips at -130 and instead I'm on -225. Sucks. Oh well. He should win.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Yep, we're thinking the same way Shag. I like that under bet too, i might join there. Phillips by KO or Gray by sub.

Phillips just keeps a ridiculous pace. Given the format of these fights being basically an audition for Dana where you need a finish, I can't see him coming out slower than usual.

**Ty$** · 08-01-17, 04:46 PM

Don't bet against the Sexi Mexi... he's legit trains at a world class gym and has fought top notch competition.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 05:15 PM

Leialoha's got Holloway's camp which is riding pretty high right now too. Mexi does have the experience though.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-17, 06:50 PM

Dana White’s Contenders Series 4 Picks:
John Castaneda Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Brandon Davis Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Ronaldo Candido Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kyler Phillips Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Phil Hawes Round 2 TKO (Elbows and Punches)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-17, 06:51 PM

Dana White’s Contenders Series 4

Fight #1: Castaneda vs. Leialoha
Parlays

Fight #2: Arnett vs. Davis
Davis (+148) 1u

Fight #3: Candido vs. Candelario
No Bet

Fight #4: Phillips vs. Gray
Parlays

Fight #5: Hawes vs. Marquez
Hawes+Marquez Under 1.5 (+115) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Castaneda/Hawes (+153) 1u
Gray+Phillips U1.5/Hawes (+182) .5u

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 07:06 PM

Not impressed with Arnett, Hugo? I wasn't either but couldn't muster the courage to take Davis. He showed some good combos and brawl ability in his last fight, but gas tank was questionable. Arnett was tough to truly judge for me cause I couldn't really gauge the quality of competition.

**Demonata** · 08-01-17, 07:12 PM

Anybody have a stream for this? I can't find one anywhere?

**dvb02** · 08-01-17, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

Anybody have a stream for this? I can't find one anywhere?

ripple.is

http://ripple.is/mma/502-dana-white-s-tuesday-night-contender-series-week-1

This domain may be for sale!

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-01-17, 07:22 PM

Leialoha won the 1st round but is really slowing down in the 2nd. He's pussying out a bit.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Leialoha won the 1st round but is really slowing down in the 2nd. He's pussying out a bit.

Looks like gas tank is an issue. Not confident in his 3rd round. Needs a big strike to change it up for him or he's gonna get out worked

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-17, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Not impressed with Arnett, Hugo? I wasn't either but couldn't muster the courage to take Davis. He showed some good combos and brawl ability in his last fight, but gas tank was questionable. Arnett was tough to truly judge for me cause I couldn't really gauge the quality of competition.

I think Davis has faced the better competition and I had him capped as a slight favorite

**dvb02** · 08-01-17, 07:26 PM

1-1

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-01-17, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Leialoha won the 1st round but is really slowing down in the 2nd. He's pussying out a bit.

Clearly 19-19 so far

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Davis has faced the better competition and I had him capped as a slight favorite

Yeah I did too. Maybe at +160 I have to bet what I saw. Hmm.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-01-17, 07:28 PM

Yea, I see a lot of hesitation in Leialoha. Even if he wins, dont' think he's ready for the UFC yet.

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Looks like gas tank is an issue. Not confident in his 3rd round. Needs a big strike to change it up for him or he's gonna get out worked

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 07:32 PM

Damn. I think Leialoha won the 3rd overall but terrible way to end the round. Castaneda stole it. He's a thief.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Yeah I did too. Maybe at +160 I have to bet what I saw. Hmm.

Well nevermind. Line is down at my book. Hm.

**turbozed** · 08-01-17, 07:34 PM

Leialoha was the right side at + odds

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-17, 07:34 PM

All Leialoha had to do was keep him on the mat with that last takedown. Maybe even just avoid Castaneda's final takedown. He was about 1minute short on cardio.

**Demonata** · 08-01-17, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Leialoha was the right side at + odds

Whenever it loses its not the right side lol

**dvb02** · 08-01-17, 07:40 PM

I have over 1.5 rounds on the next one.....what do you'll have?

**Demonata** · 08-01-17, 07:43 PM

I have, lost the fight by the joint man. The jamaican lost the fight by joint,man