- I'm liking the +550 round 2 finish for Cyborg and a sprinkle on round 3 +1200. (Of course, now that I said that, Cyborg will blow her away in the first round)!
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MMA mania predictions...
145 lbs.: Ricardo Lamas vs. Jason Knight
Ricardo Lamas (17-5) rebounded from his knockout loss to Chad Mendes with a sound thrashing of Diego Sanchez, only to fall short against future champion Max Holloway in a terrific scrap. “The Bully” returned to action five months later against Charles Oliveira and, despite “Do Bronx” coming in a full weight class overweight, submitted the Brazilian to earn “Performance of the Night.”
He will give up two inches of height to the 5’10” Jason Knight (18-2).
Knight’s lethal guard carried him to eight consecutive victories, including an upset submission of prospect Musa Khamanaev, but wasn’t enough against Tatsuya Kawajiri’s legendary top game in his UFC debut. He then reinvented himself as a pressure fighter and has looked terrific, winning four straight and earning three post-fight bonuses along the way.
He replaces the injured Chan Sung Jung on less than two months’ notice.
Honestly, there are a lot of ways this fight could go. Lamas is a skilled enough striker and stout enough wrestler to keep it standing and win on the counter, but he does have some lapses in fight IQ and will be facing a man in Knight who simply refuses to wilt in the face of adversity. Nevertheless, it’s a fight that ought to be terrific no matter how it turns out.
While I’ve underestimated Knight before, I’m giving this to Lamas. He’s got powerful leg kicks that Knight’s relentless advance leaves him vulnerable to and experience against some of the best the Featherweight division has to offer. Lamas is tough enough to stay in there and give as good as he takes, so expect him to scrape out a narrow decision victory.
Prediction: Lamas via split decision
140 lbs.: Aljamain Sterling vs. Renan Barao
Four consecutive wins, capped off by a brutal guillotine of Johnny Eduardo, put Aljamain Sterling (13-2) within spitting distance of a Bantamweight title shot. Split decision losses to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao slowed his roll, but “The Funk Master” re-entered the win column in April with a decision over Augusto Mendes.
Six of his eight stoppage wins have come via choke.
It’s been three years since T.J. Dillashaw tore the Bantamweight title from Renan Barao’s (34-4) grip and kicked off a 1-3 run. He managed to earn his first UFC Featherweight victory last September with a decision over Phillipe Nover in Brasilia. This fight was originally set to take place at 135, but California State Athletic Commission (CSAC) refused to allow Barao to make the weight cut after his earlier difficulties.
Sterling’s punches aren’t the cringeworthy windmills they were early in his UFC career, but he’s still infinitely less effective when he can’t get the takedown. Unfortunately, that’s the situation he faces on Saturday — while Barao’s game has yet to evolve sufficiently, he’s still got ridiculous takedown defense. Dillashaw concussed the guy and still couldn’t keep him down.
On the feet, Barao’s jab and low kicks are enough to dictate the pace. Expect a slightly more exciting version of Sterling’s fight with Assuncao as the former champ shuts down Sterling’s wrestling and lands just enough to edge the decision.
Prediction: Barao via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega
Renato Moicano (11-0-1) made a strong first impression in UFC with a submission win over Tom Niinimaki, but injuries have kept him to just two fights since that Dec. 2014 victory. He edged fellow prospect Zubaira Tukhugov in May 2016, then used takedowns and top control to scrape past Jeremy Stephens in April.
He has three inches each of height, reach and leg reach on Brian Ortega (11-0).
A failed drug test eliminated the 99-second UFC debut victory for “T-City” over Mike De La Torre and kept him out of action for nearly a full year. Three consecutive finishes have put him back in fans’ good graces, however, including a brutal knee knockout of Clay Guida at UFC 199.
This will be his first fight in 13 months.
Ortega has spurts of brilliance, but if I recall correctly, he was losing all three of those fights before picking up late stoppages. While terrific on the mat, Ortega’s only a middling striker and hasn’t shown outstanding wrestling, forcing him to wait for opponents to give openings rather than making them himself.
If Moicano can make full use of his length advantage, he should be able to win comfortably. He’s sharper than Ortega at range, is a more proven takedown artist, and has the submission defense to stifle Ortega’s guard. The Brazilian may not earn fans, but he will get the win, potshotting Ortega with straight punches and mixing in takedowns to earn the decision
Prediction: Moicano by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Andre Fili vs. Calvin Kattar
Andre Fili (16-4) — despite some strong performances — has struggled to find consistency in UFC, alternating wins and losses since joining the organization in 2013. After being on the wrong end of one of 2016’s “Knockouts of the Year,” he faced Nova Uniao grinder Hacran Dias and took home the decision win in a mild upset.
Eight of his 16 wins, including two of his four UFC victories, have come by form of knockout.
Calvin Kattar (16-2) earned the nickname “The Boston Finisher” with stoppages in his first nine wins, including eight in the first round. He hasn’t scored a finish since 2010, but enters Saturday’s fight having won eight straight.
He replaces the injured Doo Ho Choi on less than two weeks’ notice.
I can’t find any non-highlight footage of Kattar since his win over Saul Almeida in 2012, so this is far from scientific, but I do think Fili gets the win here. “Touchy’s” takedown defense and scrambles have improved considerably, allowing him to unleash his potent striking arsenal with more impunity, and it’s unlikely Kattar has had enough time to prepare for the diverse array of punches and kicks coming his way.
Fili’s been matched tough throughout his UFC career, but I still think he has the talent to at least breach the Top 15. He embarks on his first UFC win streak with an early knockout.
Prediction: Fili via first-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Kailin Curran vs. Aleksandra Albu (2-0)
Kailin Curran (4-4) — who welcomed Paige VanZant to the Octagon in 2014 — enters Saturday’s bout just 1-4 in the world’s largest fighting promotion. She snapped a two-fight losing streak in 2015 with a submission of Emily Kagan, but embarked on another such streak thanks to Felice Herrig and Jamie Moyle.
She stands an inch taller than Aleksandra Albu (2-0) at 5’4.”
“Stitch” finally made her first UFC appearance almost two years after she was initially signed, taking on Izabela Badurek in the latter’s native Poland. Despite a close first round, she managed to come up big with a guillotine finish in the second.
This will be her first fight in 27 months.
I’m not sure what Curran’s issue is, but she should be doing better than this. It’s hard to have confidence in her, even when her opponent hasn’t fought in more than two years. In addition to solid movement and boxing, Albu has a good grasp of framing and underhooks to deny takedowns. She’s a bit vulnerable to being pressed against the cage for long stretches, but so is Curran, who also looks to be the more hittable of the two. Unless Curran can hit consistent takedowns or keep her pinned to the cage for minutes at a time, Albu outlands her for the decision.
Prediction: Albu via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Eric Shelton vs. Jarred Brooks (12-0)
Ranked No. 15 on The Ultimate Fighter TUF) 24, Eric Shelton (10-3) upset No. 2-ranked Yoni Sherbatov on the Round of 16 and went all the way to the semifinals before falling to Tim Elliott by narrow decision. He went on to face No. 1-ranked Alexandre Pantoja at UFC on FOX 23 and, once again, came up just barely short in the second split decision loss of his professional career.
Half of his professional wins have come by submission.
Jarred Brooks (12-0) entered MMA with a top-notch wrestling pedigree and immediately put it to good use, fighting and winning everywhere from Strawweight to Bantamweight. He stepped up on short notice to face Ian McCall at UFC 208, but “Uncle Creepy’s” eleventh-hour illness delayed Brooks’ debut until this Saturday.
“The Monkey God” will give up three inches of height and an inch of reach to Shelton.
Anyone who hasn’t seen Brooks fight is in for a treat. He pushes an absurd pace, winging power hooks until he can close the distance for a huge takedown, and he’s a quality scrambler on top of that. He does have two key issues, though, chief among them: Size. He can fight comfortably at 115 pounds and did so in his most recent fight.
The other, which could cost him dearly, is his lack of defense. He has a habit of pushing forward so hard with his strikes that he gets off-balance and Shelton proved in his last fight that he can deliver power shots on the retreat. I do think Brooks will give him problems and maybe hit a few eye-catching slams, but Shelton’s own wrestling and counters should carry him to a narrow win.
Prediction: Shelton via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Josh Burkman vs. Drew Dober
Josh Burkman’s (28-15) vicious guillotine of Jon Fitch, part of a 6-1 run that included wins over three additional UFC veterans, resulted in his return to the Octagon after more than six years away. The homecoming hasn’t been a productive one, however, as he’s gone just 1-5 (1 NC) in his last run.
He is eight years older than Drew Dober (17-8), but debuted only three years earlier.
An up-and-down start to his UFC career, which included an upset submission of Jamie Varner and one of the worst stoppages in UFC history against Leandro Silva, finally gave way to two consecutive wins in 2016. He couldn’t quite finish the year unbeaten, however, suffering his second-ever submission loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier in Toronto.
Nine of his professional wins have come by submission, though several were to strikes.
Burkman has not looked good in a fight in more than three years. He had a couple decent rounds against Patrick Cote before getting obliterated with a right hand and beat a faded K.J. Noons, sure, but he didn’t look good doing so. There has not been a single point in Burkman’s current UFC run where I thought, “Man, I’m glad Josh Burkman is back in UFC — he’s making a real impact!”
While Dober may never crack the division elite, he’s a solid striker and competent wrestler, which ought to be plenty considering how ineffective Burkman has looked in both departments. He wins enough striking exchanges to earn the decision.
Prediction: Dober via unanimous decisionComment -
really like eric shelton on the season of TUF ... think he has a ton of potential and seems like a cool dude hope he can get a W here
and jibby, everybody will be on Cyborg or KO -400 tko prop isnt even an option imo.....
i like JC2008 idea as well picking the round.....
ill probably go O1.5 and pick 2 rounds i think it could happen 2,3 or 4 pick 2 of those....
even fight starts round 2 +166... hmmm i might like that instead of o1.5 actually just in case then pick round 2-3 as well ???Comment -
Yep that Cyborg fight is pretty much untouchable even with the props.. Picking rounds is a dice roll and I usually don't like to play them...Might be the only option for this fight.. I agree and JC does nail it with the 2nd round finish at +500..
These are the props below - Event the fight won't start 2nd round -180 is tough... I may pass on betting this fight myself for anything substantial.. I'll probably take Cyborg round 2 and 3 finish props for very small as nothing else seems doable for me..
Cyborg might very well finish the fight in round 1 though..
Tonya Evinger vs Cristiane Justino - Featherweight 5 rounds - UFC 214 Sat 7/29 1203 Evinger / Justino goes 5 round distance +675 11:00PM 1204 Fight won’t go 5 round distance -1235 Sat 7/29 1205 Evinger wins inside distance +1131 11:00PM 1206 Not Evinger inside distance -2077 Sat 7/29 1207 Evinger wins by 5 round decision +2600 11:00PM 1208 Not Evinger by 5 round decision -6500 Sat 7/29 1209 Justino wins inside distance -660 11:00PM 1210 Not Justino inside distance +445 Sat 7/29 1211 Justino wins by 5 round decision +994 11:00PM 1212 Not Justino by 5 round decision -1744 Sat 7/29 1213 Evinger / Justino draw +10000 11:00PM 1214 Fight not a draw -30000 Sat 7/29 1215 Evinger wins in round 1 +2425 11:00PM 1216 Any other result -7275 Sat 7/29 1217 Evinger wins in round 2 +3000 11:00PM 1218 Any other result -11000 Sat 7/29 1219 Evinger wins in round 3 +4000 11:00PM 1220 Any other result -16000 Sat 7/29 1221 Evinger wins in round 4 +5000 11:00PM 1222 Any other result -20000 Sat 7/29 1223 Evinger wins in round 5 +6000 11:00PM 1224 Any other result -24000 Sat 7/29 1225 Justino wins in round 1 -180 11:00PM 1226 Any other result +140 Sat 7/29 1227 Justino wins in round 2 +500 11:00PM 1228 Any other result -900 Sat 7/29 1229 Justino wins in round 3 +975 11:00PM 1230 Any other result -1975 Sat 7/29 1231 Justino wins in round 4 +1775 11:00PM 1232 Any other result -5325 Sat 7/29 1233 Justino wins in round 5 +2900 11:00PM 1234 Any other result -10130 Sat 7/29 1235 Evinger wins by submission +1425 11:00PM 1236 Any other result -3825 Sat 7/29 1237 Evinger wins by TKO/KO +2225 11:00PM 1238 Any other result -6675 Sat 7/29 1239 Justino wins by submission +960 11:00PM 1240 Any other result -1960 Sat 7/29 1241 Justino wins by TKO/KO -420 11:00PM 1242 Any other result +300 Sat 7/29 1243 Evinger wins by 5 rd unanimous decision +3300 11:00PM 1244 Any other result -12100 Sat 7/29 1245 Evinger wins by 5 rd split/maj decision +4550 11:00PM 1246 Any other result -17650 Sat 7/29 1247 Justino wins by 5 rd unanimous decision +1300 11:00PM 1248 Any other result -3000 Sat 7/29 1249 Justino wins by 5 rd split/maj decision +2070 11:00PM 1250 Any other result -6200 Sat 7/29 1251 Evinger / Justino starts round 5 +562 11:00PM 1252 Fight won’t start round 5 -953 Sat 7/29 1253 Evinger / Justino starts round 4 +448 11:00PM 1254 Fight won’t start round 4 -667 Sat 7/29 1255 Evinger / Justino starts round 3 +299 11:00PM 1256 Fight won’t start round 3 -389 Sat 7/29 1257 Evinger / Justino starts round 2 +150 11:00PM 1258 Fight won’t start round 2 -180 if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action Sat 7/29 1259 Evinger (scorecards = no action) +1039 11:00PM 1260 Justino (scorecards = no action) -1847 any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading detail Sat 7/29 1261 Evinger points handicap +5½ +600 11:00PM 1262 Justino points handicap -5½ -1050 Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-26-17, 10:00 AM.Comment -
Baseball is an evil sport. Lost a ton on it and all my picks missed so just have this left for ufc . I need a miracle to hit this parlay lol. Pays $1500 If it hits. BETSLIP ID:
10099382277
BETSLIP PLACED:
July 24, 2017 9:21am
8 Bet Parlay
win
24 July 12:20pm
Baseball - MLB
Chicago White Sox v Chicago Cubs
Game: Chicago White Sox ML
3.214 (+221)
Pending
29 July 4:30pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Drew Dober v Josh Burkman
Fight: Drew Dober ML
1.330 (-303)
Pending
29 July 6:05pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Andre Fili v Calvin Kattar
Fight: Andre Fili ML
1.298 (-336)
Pending
29 July 7:40pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Jason Knight v Ricardo Lamas
Fight: Ricardo Lamas ML
1.867 (-115)
Pending
29 July 8:15pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Jimi Manuwa v Volkan Oezdemir
Fight: Jimi Manuwa ML
1.553 (-181)
Pending
29 July 8:45pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Robbie Lawler v Donald Cerrone
Fight: Robbie Lawler ML
1.660 (-152)
Pending
29 July 9:45pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Tyron Woodley v Demian Maia
Fight: Tyron Woodley ML
1.516 (-194)
Pending
29 July 10:15pm
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC
Daniel Cormier v Jon Jones
Fight: Daniel Cormier ML
3.127 (+213)
PARLAY
126.597 (+12560)
0.00500
0.62799Comment -
I like Shelton a lot too but I think this is a bad matchup. The Pantoja fight was super close but where he lost it was when Pantoja pressured forward, got inside, pressed him into the cage, and worked for takedowns. In space, it was even, but the pressure won it for Pantoja. IMO Brooks will put more pressure and he does pressure specifically better than Pantoja. Hate to root for the kid though. He's a total dick.Comment -
You're screwed. (referring to Demonata's desperation parlay two posts up)Comment -
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It's pretty amazing to me how much time the MMA media generally--and Ariel Helwani in particular--spend critiquing the marketing and promotion of events and fighters by the UFC, as if they know so much better.
As a result, you can't read two sentences at r/MMA without somebody saying what an awful tragedy it is that the UFC is not "getting behind" whoever their pet-favorite is.
No one ever spells out that that means. The UFC should simply do "more."Comment -
i feel like woodley should win easy but he strikes me as a moron like travis browne and might do something stupid.Comment -
Seems crazy to bet an over in a Manuwa fight but + money for the o1.5 doesn't seem bad to me in this one. Oezdemir has never been KO'd and he always fights as the aggressor. Manuwa is patient and waits to get timing so I could see a slow start out of him in this one as Oezdemir pressures. Also, Manuwa tends to be most dangerous when he is able to stalk his opponents, which he won't be able to do against Oezdemir. Finally, Oezdemir is fond of clinch against the cage and the occasional takedown or takedown attempt. Two very durable fighters. I do think eventually one of them is gonna fall in this fight, but it could take more than 1.5 rounds.Comment -
Exactly...I really doubt and dislike Woodley after Wonderboy 2.
Maia is a specialist...it would be neat to see him win but it could be bad if Woodley is actually smart and stays fighting to get up at all times.
I really really think Woodley is an idiot and want to fade him...can really see him falling into not being smart and not fighting to get up as hard as possible at all times.
Am willing to lose with Maia and the odds, and the spite...
Also want to fade Sterling...Comment -
I know a lot of people have been over this, but realistically, what is Demian Maia's path to victory? Is he going to win with striking? No. Is he going to shoot a single or double and get Woodley to the mat? I don't think so because Woodley is going to be soooo careful about his distance and not committing to his strikes. He will be thinking sprawl first and foremost. Is he going to pull guard off of a failed shot attempt, and then look to sweep once he has Woodley on top? He might, but Woodley will not engage on the ground. He refused to engage on the ground with Galvao years ago in Strikeforce. He's not gonna do it with Maia, so check that plan off the list. I can literally only see ONE way that Maia takes this fight, and that is for him to push Woodley against the cage and then transition to his back while standing. Backpack position. Maia is very good at this, but I've also heard Woodley specifically reference it, which makes me believe he has trained for it. Outside of Maia taking Woodley's back from standing, I can't see any way he wins this fight. So is that gonna happen?Comment -
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Manuwa at-165 seems like the best value and play. He has only lost to elite guys. His striking now that AJ is gone might be tops in the division. He looks extremely confident and keeps improving every time out. Volkan got rocked last time out and scored a KO because Misha got careless. Manuwa will be aware of that and is much sharper standing than Misha. Volkan also looked gassed in his close decision over OSP. Volkan also is not a threat to take Jimi down. I think Manuwa KO/TKOs him. I think Manuwa should be a heavier favorite here easily.Comment -
I am taking Cormier, fight going all 5 rounds.Comment -
So was watching UFC tonight show and they had DC and JJ on live together..
I gotta say JJ has matured, seems like he grew up.. He said he's 30 years old now and still trains 4 times a day.. He said when he was 22 he was training 4 times a day but recovered much easier.. Age will do that to you.. However you do gain strength and JJ might be a bit stronger this 2nd go around..
He looks like a big man next to DC.. Not as much bad blood this go around.. I still really like JJ in this rematch.. He seems calm and confident.. DC not so much..
I'm not ruling out a late finish.. I know I said DC is durable and impossible to KO, JJ isn't a huge power puncher either.. Cardio is king and if DC really gasses and getting beat up I can't rule out late finish.. Maybe JJ takes DC down and even gets a pound out or choke out..
At these odds I'm thinking about it...
1031 Jones wins in round 4 +1700 1033 Jones wins in round 5 +2400
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-27-17, 06:53 PM.Comment -
Rory MacDonald too brother. Please tell me your lying about betting the fight... Look at your Avatar brother. Maia is going to destroy him... Always hedge with uncles picks.Comment -
Can't bet with my heart on this one buddy.. Will hedge though with my heart..
Would absolutely love to see Maia take down Woodley and take his back, that would be awesome..
I'll still be rooting for my boy.. The hedge will make it easier also if by chance Maia wins...
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Actually took both of these for .25u each last night.So was watching UFC tonight show and they had DC and JJ on live together..
I gotta say JJ has matured, seems like he grew up.. He said he's 30 years old now and still trains 4 times a day.. He said when he was 22 he was training 4 times a day but recovered much easier.. Age will do that to you.. However you do gain strength and JJ might be a bit stronger this 2nd go around..
He looks like a big man next to DC.. Not as much bad blood this go around.. I still really like JJ in this rematch.. He seems calm and confident.. DC not so much..
I'm not ruling out a late finish.. I know I said DC is durable and impossible to KO, JJ isn't a huge power puncher either.. Cardio is king and if DC really gasses and getting beat up I can't rule out late finish.. Maybe JJ takes DC down and even gets a pound out or choke out..
At these odds I'm thinking about it...
1031 Jones wins in round 4 +1700 1033 Jones wins in round 5 +2400
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Jones by late Sub would be ideal but I think UD is more likely.Comment -
Why not right.. At those odds you can't go wrong..
I laid down $40 to see if one sticks... It does probably go the distance though with JJ by UN I agree...
$20.00 $210.00 Pending 7/29/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1029 Jones wins in round 3 +1050* vs Any other result
$10.00 $170.00 Pending 7/29/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1031 Jones wins in round 4 +1700* vs Any other result
$10.00 $240.00 Pending 7/29/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1033 Jones wins in round 5 +2400* vs Any other result Comment -
Loving this card so far. Feeling 5 plays for sure
Cerrone +140 (Robbie Lawler hits hard blah blah blah, the guy rarely throws and Cowboy could do work in the clinch and at kicking range. Unless he gets KTFO'd hard then he wins a decision based on output)
Burkman +285 (Dober -300 over anyone in the UFC LW division is shaky. Burkman is on his last legs sure, but he's still a decent sized LW with pretty good grappling. Burkman was very competitive with MUCH better competition like Zak Ottow and Paul Felder and I think he can get a few TD's against Dober and maybe steal a SD)
Shelton +130 (Shelton arguably could have won a great season of TUF with Tim Elliot, Brandon Moreno, and Pantoja on it. I was a little unsure of him still but he fought Pantoja decently well in a fight I bet against him in and he's facing a guy in Brooks who hasn't fought anything resembling UFC competition and Shelton is the much bigger guy. I doubt Brooks will be able to use his wrestling heavy game against someone with the size and athleticism of Shelton who also has a 6 inch reach edge)
Moicano -150 (The only fave on my list but there is a reason why. Ortega is an opportunist who capitalizes on mistakes. He did it against Diego Brandao (in a fight he would have lost 30-27) and to Thiago Tavares (same 30-27 situation probably). The issue here is Moicano is a much much better striker than Tavares and is a world class BJJ black belt compared to Brandao. I love how well Moicano defends against getting hit and moves and Ortega isn't a wrestler. This fight stays standing and Moicano wins a boring ugly decision as Ortega rushes in constantly to get sticked and moved)
Lamas +100 (Here's how I'll describe this. Lamas was -120 against Charles Oliveira in his last fight that Oliveira weighed in NINE pounds overweight. Lamas won that fight by SUB in the 2nd round. Knight was -120 in his last fight against Chas Skelly. Skelly was very competitive in the 1st 2 round (19-19) until he gassed and Knight finished him. So explain to me why a guy -120 vs Skelly is favored over a guy who was -120 over DO BRONX fighting a weight class heavier than him)Comment
