[Bagalut]

Hey forum

Im struggling taking a pick on this Fight.

For me its like this:

Gustafsson comes of victories, is improving with every fight, has great technical striking and is fighting in his hometown Stockholm.
The only thing im concerned about is his TDD since no one tested him on this since Phil Davis.
He started training with Davis but how good has his TDD rly become?

If Thiago fights smart and takes the fight to the ground like he did against Vera, I can imagine him destroyin Gustafsson with GnP.

What do you think how likely is it thats going to happen?

[varkolek]

Gustafsson has never been taken down by conventional wrestling take downs. He actually went for a take down on Phil Davis, and Davis got top position in the scramble and then submitted him.

Te Huna got Gustafsson down a couple of times in the centre of the ring using sacrificial throws, but when Te Huna went for a normal double leg and Gustafsson backed towards the fence Te Huna couldn't take him down.

That said, I think Silva may be able to get take downs using trips or something, I think Joe Rogan was saying on the commentary the last fight Silva is a great grappler but we haven't seen much because he had back problems before. I also think the striking between Silva and Gustafsson may be competitive.

[Vitooch]

If you're having a hard time capping it, then it should be a no play.

I like Gustafsson/Silva won't go 3 round distance at -165

[Bagalut]

If i remember right silva used trips out of the clinch to take vera down several times.
So he might use this.

I see the fight beein very close
so that there is value in silva imo.
Prob making a small play on him

[Crassus]

I'm really liking Silva in this fight. He's just better than Gustafsson at this point. He might struggle with GREAT strikers (Machida) and GREAT wrestlers (Rashad) but he'll give anyone at LHW a run for their money. Thiago takes this, any + odds are a gift in my opinion.

[Vitooch]

What fight indicates that Silva is the better fighter?

[Bagalut]

I'm really liking Silva in this fight. He's just better than Gustafsson at this point. He might struggle with GREAT strikers (Machida) and GREAT wrestlers (Rashad) but he'll give anyone at LHW a run for their money. Thiago takes this, any + odds are a gift in my opinion.

And you have to keep in mind that he had a back injurie fighting rashad. Still he nearly finished him.
So im with you here. Playing silva

[Crassus]

Brandon Vera fight mainly

[Vitooch]

You don't think Gustafsson would have done the same to Vera?

[Crassus]

You don't think Gustafsson would have done the same to Vera?

Absolutely not, Gustafsson just hasn't really impressed me that much. He's...okay. Huge talent, lots of improvement yet to come but at this moment I'd say he's in waters too deep in Thiago Silva. When it comes to how I bet, I trust the proven commodity. To me, that's Silva without a doubt.

[Rubber Guard]

Always have and still believe Thiago is very overrated. His mean face seems to fool a lot of people, similar to that of Diego "i have no technique" Sanchez and his goofy face.

Gustaf isn't Jardine or Antonio Mendes. He is a lanky big 205er, who has excellent hands and solid kicks using very good technique and good footwork. He is much quicker than Thiago with just as much punching power. He is like 23 or24 years old and gets better each fight. Although sub'd, but more or less caught at the end of the round by Davis....he has a very solid ground game. And as said he has very good TDD as well. He gave Phil Davis a very hard time as a 22 year old kid.

I think the line is pretty fair at -235 because these are 205ers with power in what could be a striking contest. 1 punch can change anything here. But I think Gustaf def deserves that line. I see many reasons to like Gustaf and I don't see any 1 advantage for Thiago? He is more aggressive I guess, but that tends to walk him right into punches. He really isn't better in any 1 area other than maybe his blackbelt jitz is better at this point. I like Gustaf to win this fight, but not sure if there is any value in either side. I don't see many reasons to get excited over Thiago in this spot though.

Oh and it is in Swedan.

[dww123]

Silva was using PED's for the fight with Vera and Vera just isn't a very good mma fighter.

[Vitooch]

Absolutely not, Gustafsson just hasn't really impressed me that much. He's...okay. Huge talent, lots of improvement yet to come but at this moment I'd say he's in waters too deep in Thiago Silva. When it comes to how I bet, I trust the proven commodity. To me, that's Silva without a doubt.

Gustafsson has taken out Matt Hamill, a fighter of equal if not higher quality than Brandon Vera. He's also submitted James Te Huna, a fighter of a higher quality than Vera.

[bjpenn85]

Proven commodity? So how does thiago win? he cant takedown gustaffson. he cant outstrike him. He cant outlast him.

Knock him out? sure....is that youre prediction? Thiago by 1.round KO?

In theory he may win by decision, but so can che mills over rory macdonald also. Its just not going to happen.

[Bagalut]

Proven commodity? So how does thiago win? he cant takedown gustaffson. he cant outstrike him. He cant outlast him.

Knock him out? sure....is that youre prediction? Thiago by 1.round KO?

In theory he may win by decision, but so can che mills over rory macdonald also. Its just not going to happen.

He can and will take gustafsson down. And that's where he will keep him 3 rounds and take the decision or get the ref stop.

I think he will at first keep it standing and try banging with gustafsson and when he realises he can't he goes clinch and then takedown.

[the josh]

Gustaffson has impressed the shit out of me.

And hes even training with davis now, who is arguably a better wrestler than silva, so he has probably spent a ton of time on his back in training. Im sure hes gotten a lot better off his back.

Thiago has a chance, but i think its mostly by grappling w/o being able to control him enough to strike, or by getting a KO.

That being said, ive got a few hundred of Gustaffson right now, and probably more by fight time, i think he takes this.

[Oblivian]

I find this fight difficult to predict. Gustafsson has had some interesting matchmaking. I felt Matyushenko would give him more of a fight, but I knew Hamill was way outmatched. Te Huna didn't do too bad especially at the start. I think Gustafsson has loads of potential, but I'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon of him being the next big thing. I want to see how he does against upper competition that is well rounded.

It's also hard to ignore what Silva did to Brandon Vera. Besides Jon Jones and arguably Werdum, no one has handled Vera like that. I feel Silva does have a KO chance in exchanges, but I feel he will be the better grappler. I won't play large at all, but Silva seems like the play to me as well.

[Beelzebubzy]

Gustaffson has impressed the shit out of me.

And hes even training with davis now, who is arguably a better wrestler than silva, so he has probably spent a ton of time on his back in training. Im sure hes gotten a lot better off his back.

Thiago has a chance, but i think its mostly by grappling w/o being able to control him enough to strike, or by getting a KO.

That being said, ive got a few hundred of Gustaffson right now, and probably more by fight time, i think he takes this.

Davis is a better wrestler than all Silva's in the UFC combined

[the josh]

yea... just didnt wanna overplay davis to make it seem liek too much of a gustaffson advantage. trying to be impartial

[bjpenn85]

based on veras movement, strength&stupidity?

[Hannibal]

i'm with BJ here....thiago is going to get owned. Gus is huge, fast, and rangy. thiago is slow and flat footed ...gus is going to make him look stupid

hit the -214 line again before it goes up

[Rubber Guard]

I don't get how anyone can say Thiago Silva is a proven commodity and Gustaf is not?

Thiago is 14-2. Gustaf is 13-1. So they have the same looking record and Gustaf has probably beat better opponents.

I don't see how Thiago has proven any more than Gustaf?

I guess he has proven he get get KTFO and walk into a punch. I guess he also proved he can get wrestled for 3 rounds. Gustaf fought off Phil Davis TDs and was caught by an anaconda choke at the very end of the round. That was as a 22 year old kid.


Similar to Jon Jones...Gustaf is getting better each fight. Each fight there is a better version of him.

[Beelzebubzy]

I have taken 1u on Gustaffson at -235

- Proven KO ability (finished the durable Hamill and Vlady )
- All around game is improving
- Aforementioned training with Alliance
- Hometown 'advantage'
-Cons against Silva - lack of chin, injured back, short notice fight, long layoff, Juicing, lack of quality competition (best win is Jardine)

[the josh]

just to play the devils advocate, even though i am on the maulers side here, vlady knocked himself out. that fight didnt really prove that alex has knockout power.

[Beelzebubzy]

just to play the devils advocate, even though i am on the maulers side here, vlady knocked himself out. that fight didnt really prove that alex has knockout power.

KOed Jared Hamman, that is better chin than Thiago

[Crassus]

I don't get how anyone can say Thiago Silva is a proven commodity and Gustaf is not?

Thiago is 14-2. Gustaf is 13-1. So they have the same looking record and Gustaf has probably beat better opponents.

I don't see how Thiago has proven any more than Gustaf?

I guess he has proven he get get KTFO and walk into a punch. I guess he also proved he can get wrestled for 3 rounds. Gustaf fought off Phil Davis TDs and was caught by an anaconda choke at the very end of the round. That was as a 22 year old kid.


Similar to Jon Jones...Gustaf is getting better each fight. Each fight there is a better version of him.

Every 6'6 light heavy weight is suddenly the next Jon Jones. No offense but that's just not true. Gustaf is good but his last two fights haven't proven anything. Vladdy knocked himself out in that punch because after he KO'ed Brilz he thought he could reinvent himself as some heavy handed striker. Matt Hamill also took the fight on extremely short notice.

Don't give too much credence to Gustaf working with Phil Davis, Nick Diaz works with Jake Shields and their respective strengths have not rubbed off on each other at all. Thiago Silva isn't a world beater by any mean, but he's a high level gate keeper. You beat Thiago, you're in title contention (Machida, Rashad).

He also didn't "beat" Vera, he destroyed, obliterated him. Steroids or not, Vera was crushed in a way nobody other than Jon Jones has done. Silva was 10 seconds away from knocking Rashad out after 2.5 rounds of heavy wrestling, which means he's ALWAYS dangerous.
Alliance MMA is suddenly better than American Top Team? No way.

I won't be surprised if Gustaf loses, this isn't a lock by any means. I'm not giving him a 2:1 advantage though and I'll take Thiago Silva at + odds any day of the week.

Gustafsson has taken out Matt Hamill, a fighter of equal if not higher quality than Brandon Vera. He's also submitted James Te Huna, a fighter of a higher quality than Vera.

Matt Hamill on like two weeks notice is not the same fighter as Matt Hamill after a full training camp. He was pudgy and slow in that fight and shot literally from a mile away. James Te Huna is not a better fighter than Vera, I disagree with that completely.

[Rubber Guard]

Who said he is Jon Jones? What are you even babbling about? I said....like Jon....because of his age and how good he is at such a young age....he is getting better each time. Which is scary. Gustaf is not a wrestler at heart....yet he went to work with Phil Davis after he beat him. The man is getting better as he enters his prime. Thiago is 29 and has never shown really any improvement.

It is funny that anyone still considers Vera anything good. He destroyed Vera on raging roids. Good for him. His body won't react too well if he is just going to stop the roids. Thiago looked huge that fight.

Gustaf is way more technical on the feet and has much more length. He wins the stand up fight 8 out of 10 times. Silva could try and wrestle him...but Phil Davis 2 years ago couldn't get Gustaf down. A national champion wrestler. FF to now...2 years later. At the ripe age of 25 and with more fights and training in....Gustaf is much better than he was then.

I see no advantage for Thiago. And he has been out a long time. And this is in Swedan. I couldn't bring myself to bet that side. If I liked Thiago I would make it a no play just for the fact that he has been out a year and the fight is in Swedan.

[Beelzebubzy]

Who said he is Jon Jones? What are you even babbling about? I said....like Jon....because of his age and how good he is at such a young age....he is getting better each time. Which is scary. Gustaf is not a wrestler at heart....yet he went to work with Phil Davis after he beat him. The man is getting better as he enters his prime. Thiago is 29 and has never shown really any improvement.

It is funny that anyone still considers Vera anything good. He destroyed Vera on raging roids. Good for him. His body won't react too well if he is just going to stop the roids. Thiago looked huge that fight.

Gustaf is way more technical on the feet and has much more length. He wins the stand up fight 8 out of 10 times. Silva could try and wrestle him...but Phil Davis 2 years ago couldn't get Gustaf down. A national champion wrestler. FF to now...2 years later. At the ripe age of 25 and with more fights and training in....Gustaf is much better than he was then.

I see no advantage for Thiago. And he has been out a long time. And this is in Swedan. I couldn't bring myself to bet that side. If I liked Thiago I would make it a no play just for the fact that he has been out a year and the fight is in Swedan.

Thiago has advantages
More accurate with his punches and gets tagged less. See the Fightmetrics.

[Vitooch]

Youre giving a guy whos best win was Brandon Vera too much credit. Ill take wins over Hamill and Matty over Jardine and Vera any ******* day

[the josh]

beating jardine is like beating an autistic child.

id actually give the autistic kid an edge over jardine because of the retard strength.

[bjpenn85]

Hahahah

[Crassus]

Youre giving a guy whos best win was Brandon Vera too much credit. Ill take wins over Hamill and Matty over Jardine and Vera any ******* day

You're giving beating a on two-week notice Hamill too much credit.

[Vitooch]

You're giving Silva too much credit for beating a fighter who almost got taken out by Eliot "The Fire" Marshall. Gustafsson is a much more technical, quicker, striker with a big reach advantage. Yes, he has gotten tagged before but he also has never been rocked or really hurt by any strike. That first round performance by Matt Hamill was one of the best rounds of have seen of his. He did not look like a fighter fighting on short notice. Gus just found an opening like he often does and pounced on Hamill when he saw he was hurt.

Silva is just a thug who pounds cans senseless and gets outclassed by fighters who pose significant advantages technically. Not counting out Silva catching Gus, just saying it is unlikely as the odds indicate.

[10thPlanetJC]

Always have and still believe Thiago is very overrated. His mean face seems to fool a lot of people, similar to that of Diego "i have no technique" Sanchez and his goofy face.

Gustaf isn't Jardine or Antonio Mendes. He is a lanky big 205er, who has excellent hands and solid kicks using very good technique and good footwork. He is much quicker than Thiago with just as much punching power. He is like 23 or24 years old and gets better each fight. Although sub'd, but more or less caught at the end of the round by Davis....he has a very solid ground game. And as said he has very good TDD as well. He gave Phil Davis a very hard time as a 22 year old kid.

I think the line is pretty fair at -235 because these are 205ers with power in what could be a striking contest. 1 punch can change anything here. But I think Gustaf def deserves that line. I see many reasons to like Gustaf and I don't see any 1 advantage for Thiago? He is more aggressive I guess, but that tends to walk him right into punches. He really isn't better in any 1 area other than maybe his blackbelt jitz is better at this point. I like Gustaf to win this fight, but not sure if there is any value in either side. I don't see many reasons to get excited over Thiago in this spot though.

Oh and it is in Swedan.

I agree completely with this post.

Another thing to keep in mind is that was Phil Davis muscling his way into a sub and oh yeah, he's a four time NCAA Div All American wrestler. Gust was 22 years old then and he has nearly the same amount of fighting experience that Silva has. Silva has 8 fights in the UFC and Gust has 6 in the UFC.

Thiago has only 3 fights since August 2009. It's been 14 months since his fight with Vera and it's been 26 months since his loss against Evans.

We'll see how the inactivity affects Silva's cardio and timing.

[fosho14]

I am going to stay away from this fight. It is closer than the odds suggest. Although I think Gus has the edge I can also visualize multiple ways in my mind that Thiago could come out victorious and that is not very comforting to know if I were to lay a wager on gus at anything worse than -150. Although there is a lot of talk about Gustaffson training with Phil Davis and improving this and improving that it is still speculation as to how good his wrestling will be against Silva. That is also not the greatest way to analyze and predict fights, (judging by who people train with). Leonard Garcia has trained with talented fighters for quite some time now and despite this he consistently show-cases his disgusting and sloppy technique with no signs of improvement. Mario Miranda has spent time at black house and was lucky enough to train with some of the most elite fighters in the world but that didn't seem to carry over into his personal skill set. Yes it's obviously better to train with good fighters/teams rather than bad ones, but don't give that too much consideration when capping fights! There's too many examples of bad fighters who train with good fighters and who come from good camps to offset that theory. I don't have time to dig up more examples but I assure you that there are plenty.

Sorry I can't give a more concrete opinion, this fight is very tough to call since the switch from lil nog. I will be sure to be providing more decisive picks for the other bouts later this week, because I know how adamant you guys are about hoarding our discussion from the bookmakers in fear of the lines moving