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i agree with you that askren has to use his wrestling and take downs as it is still his best option. i just think he needs to be more active on and try to improve his position, maybe try to get side control, etc. rather than his usual MO of staying in his opponents guard.Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
i dont like to completely discount any outcome, but in this case, i would say there is no chance askren gets the submission. lima is too good on the ground, and askren hasnt shown anything to suggest he has the skill to pull off a sub on someone of lima's caliber. askren is also risk-averse and seems content to grind out decisions.
Bovada released the lines... still waiting on 5d.
strange that bovada opened before 5d. they are usually the last ones to release. in any case, im glad they opened doug lima +300. thought i was going to miss the boat on that line.Bovada released the lines... still waiting on 5d.
Honestly, us Brits aren't all like this! Have to watch this, 7 minutes of him talking about how to pronounce "Bel-ator"!!! lol... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-WQxqhh4Ko
Last edited by Vaughany; 04-05-12 at 01:16 PM.
Is that you V?
That was awesome
haha
Askren prides himself on the lay n pray, which is playing with fire in this matchup. The small chance that Askren threatens with subs and does manage to actuakly submit Lima is not worth the juice. Joe Warren has proven the pitfalls of being so one dimensional. If Askren is too agressive, and tries too hard for a takedown, he may leave openings for Lima to unload on strikes. If he forces a clinch throw or trip, he may even find himself on his back.
dam Lima seems like a much stronger fighter physically while Ben Askren looks like someone in the 80's who smokes weed and talks about aliens hahahah
Does Askren usually look this soft, or is it just the angle?
Askren looked awful against hieron, and just barely and I mean barely scraped by. Easily could have gone to hieron, in fact many ppl scored it for hieron. I think Lima has better striking than hieron but hieron showed impressive takedown defense!! Sadly the realistic outcome of this match is going to be askren dry humping lima for 5 rounds, because I don't think lima will be able to get back to his feet, and I don't think he will submit askren. I want lima to win don't get me wrong, just don't think he will. It would be great if I was proven wrong. I have to admit the more I think about this fight, the less confident I feel about limas chances. I hate betting on fighters purely because the return could be nice should they pull off the upset, even though in my heart of hearts I know they're going to lose. Hieron had remarkable TDD compared to all other Askren opposition and he still lost when a long portion of the duration was contested standing. I don't think Lima is going to be granted that luxury. I think he's gonna be slammed swiftly and quickly onto his back each round and controlled on the canvas the way chael sonnen controls his foes. It's not going to be pretty but he will probably take it down. Lets hope I'm wrong guys. Good luck to the lima backers. Don't know what else can be said about this bellator main event.
Askren has no way to set up his takedowns properly. His standup is almost non-existent. He will be facing a fighter with very strong grappling, and who will punish Askren if he comes in too agressive and leaves himself exposed like he did against Hieron. Lima's punching power and right hand reminds me alot of Henderson's.
Okay what are you saying? Are you saying that Askren won't be able to take Lima down? I think he will find some ugly way to set up his takedowns just as he has for everyone else. I guess we have differing opinions.
I may thoroughly dislike the dude, but one thing I cannot do is deny him his respect in that one facet of specialty. He is a talented and accomplished freestyle and folkstyle wrestler. He's arguably one of the best if not thee best wrestler that is currently competing in mma today. Even if he is a one trick pony he's good enough at that one trick, to be successful fight after fight. Ignoring that is just naive...
Indeed, his sheer tenacity and resilience are amazing... and combine tht with a solid chin and great composure in difficult situations = tough guy to finish and get the nod over from the judges
I agree with everything you said above. I respect guys like Fitch and Askren who do one thing very well. I just think that if you are that deficient in one aspect of the sport, and you are competing at such a high level, you are walking on eggshells. Joe Warren proved that being an over-agressive in the wrestling department leaves openings for strikers with good grappling to smash if given the opportunity. Askren has these sorts of tendencies at times, and I don't believe he has fought anyone with as dangerous hands as Lima.
It's an intriguing fight. I'm really looking forward to it. Askren's hands are full, and so are Lima's. Both pose serious threats in completely different areas. lima's threats being scarier but lower percentage, and askren's likely to be consistent and soft.
I sort of agree with you on that, I'm personally gonna throw like $20 on Lima because he definitely has a better than 3:1 chance to win. If you think that Askren isn't going to be able to take Lima down you're going to be sorely disappointed in my opinion. Askren is one of those guys who always gets the takedown, and a guy who gets taken down by Ben Saunders is not the kind of guy to stop Askren.
Lima either wins by TKO in the 1st (flash punch in the beginning before Askren gets his timing down) or gets a late round TKO once Askren gets a little tired...either way I'll be betting on Lima to win @ 3:1 and if you can find a site with a prop for Askren by dec. definitely take that.
Askren is also really different than Joe Warren.
I certainly think Askren will take Lima down, but he will probably not be able to finish him. I think Askren over the course of this 5 round fight will leave openings, and I think Lima has the finishing power to seize these small windows of opportunity.
I jumped on Lima at +300 hoping to get askren by decision too. Don't wanna get stuck with just Lima though.
I was wondering the same thing. Looked at some older pictures and he's never really been a ripped dude, but he does look a bit softer to me too.
My plays so far for this weekend:
Marlon Sandro: 9 units @ -180
Travis Marx: 2 units @ +300
Rodrigo Lima: 4 units @ -120
Askren/Chiesa/Horodecki Parlay: 4 units @ +112
Yeah think ur right. Lima looked really drawn out while Askren was complete opposite!
askren looks an awful lot like eric stoltz in "mask"(lol)......but he is one wrestling mofo......something for the prop guys to keep an eye on...5 dimes has this one listed as a 3 rounder.....so if this is indeed a 5 rounder(and if i recall, bellator championships are),distance props will go the way of high button shoes....just a heads up.....
if it`s a five`er,it`s lima for me or nothing...
Event streamed anywhere?
It's a five rounder.
If anyone likes Askren, over 3.5 -215 is a far superior bet.
Agree. I took lima small at not the greatest odds, but my paper pick is def askren. Boring or not, you gotta respect the dude's wrasslin' ability like the guy above said. Its arguably some of the best mma wrestling in the game.
However, he obviously has a finishing problem, and therefore if you like ben you obviously should play the over (which is generous at 3 1/2 not 4 1/2 rounds) or play him by decision prop if its offered. Playing him str8 up is just silly. Same with all the juicy favs tonight, lots of over value imo... I REALLY wanted to get horedecki at a good price, but lol at -400...
Jus risk free play for me tonight on Lima... 12.4 units profit if he wins, overall stakes back if not.
Looking at Rodrigo Lima and his opponents, i dont think 1 had a winning record. most were 0-1, 2-4 sort of fighters he fought. Nakamura has fought the much better competition. thoughts on this one?
How bout the the sandro popo fight as well??
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