UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 (March 04, 2017)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-17, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gotta move on fellas... Still have a few good fights to bet on with this event..

I gotta say I think we would have all cashed on El Cucuy though.. That was good money at +odds.

Anyways.. Taking a pass on Bellator tonight.. Don't know the fighters didn't have the time to cap.. I'm Out.. GL though!!

Small bets on the dog in the main event but Bellator card is not good. Oh well let's get this Woodley KO Jibs.

**JC2008** · 03-03-17, 08:55 PM

Anyone have any thoughts on the women's fight?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-17, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

Anyone have any thoughts on the women's fight?

Played the under and both by sub for small. Think Calvillo wins but who knows

**JC2008** · 03-03-17, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Played the under and both by sub for small. Think Calvillo wins but who knows

I think so too. Undefeated, only 3-0 but odds are basically even.

**Shagdogy** · 03-03-17, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

Anyone have any thoughts on the women's fight?

My personal thoughts on women's fights are just not bet then except in rare instances. Too hard to call. Always so unpredictable.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-17, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

I think so too. Undefeated, only 3-0 but odds are basically even.

She beat Aspen Ladd in Ammys which is big. Ladd is a beast

**JC2008** · 03-03-17, 09:23 PM

What does everyone think about Tybura/Henrique? I lean Tybura. You would think either guy will stop the other guy but the over 2.5 rounds is only +120 so either guy by decision at +400 or +450 may be worth a minor sprinkle.

**Thor4140** · 03-03-17, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by rsynweap84

At least Greenbay shows up to play, injured, sick, broke the f**k off, not like pussy Khabib. Your making excuses for failure, I got news for ya'...there ain't none.

But I guess somone has to defend the scumbags like Khabib, he can shit-talk for days but when it's fight time...nope nope nope. And him to accuse Ferguson of running from this fight, although at least he probably can run, maybe they'll get Khabib a wheelchair to keep up...

Also, learn to read you twat, I wanted him in a plane crash, told you to have the car wreck...gees christ almighty find a cliff already...

I guess Khabib just figured he didn't want to fight so he took the night off. Nobody goes in there to die for a jackass like you. Im sure he fake the doctor as well. Bottom line this is a barbaric sport which i still love. Why haven't the fighters all jumped on Khabib and acted like an asshole like u. There is a great boxing match tomorrow night go watch that. There are other fights on the card. U sound like a fuking pussy who cries when he doesn't get his way. Now go take your basketball and go home.

**Unwritten Law** · 03-03-17, 10:07 PM

Khabib didn't make weight and leading up to the fight El Cucuy mentioned that he is fat and needs to lose weight. Khabib defended himself saying don't worry about my training and my weight, self proclaimed to be in the best shape of his life and weight cutting is going seamless.

**Fight4m** · 03-03-17, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

What does everyone think about Tybura/Henrique? I lean Tybura. You would think either guy will stop the other guy but the over 2.5 rounds is only +120 so either guy by decision at +400 or +450 may be worth a minor sprinkle.

I like Henrique here,I agree about the desicion prop.

**Fight4m** · 03-03-17, 10:29 PM

The last and only time I bet on a women fight was Amanda Nunez when destroyed Rousey,made good money,but don't like to bet on women really.

**Fight4m** · 03-03-17, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I agree with you dead on with every fight except Craig/Pedro. I think it's a bad style matchup for Craig, but I agree it's an exciting fight and both guys appear to be legit. I took Pedro though. I think with a full camp at Jackson's he will be able to use his imposing top game to control and avoid subs. Maybe even get TKO from mount or sink RNC. Craig is very good though and I will give him all the credit if he subs Pedro from bottom since Pedro has to know to be cautious with his BJJ.

I'm heavy on Godbeer. Not a lot to see on Spitz but his quality of opponents is complete trash, he's on one week's notice, sikjitsu camp is crappy, his kicks are half as good as Godbeer's, his hands are slower, and he has less power. Godbeer for the win by TKO as long as he doesn't get overconfident, rush it, and get dumped on his ass by the larger guy.

We re gonna crush the books tomorrow!! ,good luck!

**Sanity Check** · 03-03-17, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

Anyone have any thoughts on the women's fight?

I went small on Cavillo since she trains out of team alpha male & the other girls wrestling and sub defense didn't look the best when she was submitted by Tatiana Suarez.

**JC2008** · 03-03-17, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

I went small on Cavillo since she trains out of team alpha male & the other girls wrestling and sub defense didn't look the best when she was submitted by Tatiana Suarez.

- That's enough for me, 2 opinions on Calvillo, not to mention my initial instinct watching the weigh-in. +400 by KO/TKO/DQ is definitely worth a minor wager for me as well, after Hugo mentioned it.

The over 2.5 is -275 but the odds on Calvillo to get the finish are ABSURD:

R1 - +750
R2 - +1100
R3 - +2000

**Shagdogy** · 03-04-17, 10:20 AM

Finally watching some tape of Cynthia Calvillo and I think this girl looks real. She's a bully. Has a lot of scrap to her. Good cardio. Very solid scrambles (which should only improve at Alpha Male). She just seems to bring it harder than her opponents are ready for. She's imposing. I'm real impressed. I haven't put anything on her yet because I need to watch a bit more of Cooper, but I really like what I'm seeing from Calvillo.

**JC2008** · 03-04-17, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Finally watching some tape of Cynthia Calvillo and I think this girl looks real. She's a bully. Has a lot of scrap to her. Good cardio. Very solid scrambles (which should only improve at Alpha Male). She just seems to bring it harder than her opponents are ready for. She's imposing. I'm real impressed. I haven't put anything on her yet because I need to watch a bit more of Cooper, but I really like what I'm seeing from Calvillo.

Yes I need to take her while they're still even odds..

**Fatal1ty** · 03-04-17, 10:49 AM

Main card is only 4 fights now?

**KingHawkins** · 03-04-17, 10:49 AM

I am already on Calvillo at +105 for a decent sized bet, but I had notes written down to buy out of that with Cooper today. Now you guys all have me thinking to maybe let it ride.... but IDK... I feel like Cooper also has quite a bit of motivation and has a really good shot here. I am also seeing close to 80% of tickets on Calvillo per SportsInsights, for whatever that is worth.

**Shagdogy** · 03-04-17, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by KingHawkins

I am already on Calvillo at +105 for a decent sized bet, but I had notes written down to buy out of that with Cooper today. Now you guys all have me thinking to maybe let it ride.... but IDK... I feel like Cooper also has quite a bit of motivation and has a really good shot here. I am also seeing close to 80% of tickets on Calvillo per SportsInsights, for whatever that is worth.

Just watched some Cooper to refresh my memory and she's not bad too. Her hands are crisp as expected and throws some good combos. She's surprisingly decent off of her back and pretty good at getting back to her feet. BUT... she's just not going to beat Calvillo in the scrambles. I think that's the difference in this fight. She will not out-scramble Calvillo and she won't reverse her from the bottom. She may get back to her feet, but that'll just be another opportunity for Calvillo to put her back down and get the judges' attention with takedowns. I don't think it will be easy and I won't put too much on it, but I think Calvillo wins this fight.

**Shagdogy** · 03-04-17, 10:55 AM

I also need to put a little on Kelly as the underdog. The dude is the ugliest looking fighter the UFC has but he is the exact opposite of Rashad. Slow, strong as an ox, durable as hell, and cardio for days. Rashad will likely have to beat him for 3 rounds without getting a takedown stuffed and/or having his chin tested. Worth a little stab on Kelly IMO.

**Squareguy** · 03-04-17, 11:09 AM

Thoughts on Darren Elkins at +750 by decision? I'm not familiar with Bektic, but I'm watching his fights now. He's 4-0 in the UFC and his toughest fights were Chas Kelley and Lucas Martins. Darren beat both of them as well...

I think Darren could be the underdog, but has Bektic fought any tough grinders like Darren?

**JC2008** · 03-04-17, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Squareguy

Thoughts on Darren Elkins at +750 by decision? I'm not familiar with Bektic, but I'm watching his fights now. He's 4-0 in the UFC and his toughest fights were Chas Kelley and Lucas Martins. Darren beat both of them as well...

I think Darren could be the underdog, but has Bektic fought any tough grinders like Darren?

Mektic is a big prospect. I expect him to win a UD but who knows... There was some good discussion about this fight a few pages back.

**Shagdogy** · 03-04-17, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Squareguy

Thoughts on Darren Elkins at +750 by decision? I'm not familiar with Bektic, but I'm watching his fights now. He's 4-0 in the UFC and his toughest fights were Chas Kelley and Lucas Martins. Darren beat both of them as well...

I think Darren could be the underdog, but has Bektic fought any tough grinders like Darren?

Not many in that division grind as well as Elkins, so no. I think that line is out of control and worth a stab. Bektic is an animal and he could put Elkins away, but if he doesn't, he will be pushed and tested and he better be mentally tough.

**JC2008** · 03-04-17, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Not many in that division grind as well as Elkins, so no. I think that line is out of control and worth a stab. Bektic is an animal and he could put Elkins away, but if he doesn't, he will be pushed and tested and he better be mentally tough.

Agreed... I think Bektic wins but it has to be Elkins or pass for me. After all, this IS MMA and we have seen some shady decisions before...

**Squareguy** · 03-04-17, 11:39 AM

I read the discussion back there and decided to go ahead and throw a bill at Elkins +750 by decision.

**Thor4140** · 03-04-17, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by Unwritten Law

Khabib didn't make weight and leading up to the fight El Cucuy mentioned that he is fat and needs to lose weight. Khabib defended himself saying don't worry about my training and my weight, self proclaimed to be in the best shape of his life and weight cutting is going seamless.

i understand that but we don't know what happen. U think Dana wanted this to happen? Now if this is big Rigg Or Kevin G i could see being upset.

**firekillex** · 03-04-17, 01:01 PM

missing weight / cancelling a bout for a title fight is much much worse then just any bout
dana white is probably raging out right now , especially since its a PPV

khabib better not lose or miss weight again or i could see something not good happening for his career, plus hes talked about retirement after his injuries, now this and his dad saying he wants him to hang it up in 2 years... the end could be coming for khabib

mcgregor is in the background rubbing his hands together smiling

**Fatal1ty** · 03-04-17, 01:14 PM

Any thoughts on Overeem/Hunt? Reem decision has to be good odds considering the planet is predicting a KO on way or the other.

**JC2008** · 03-04-17, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by Fatal1ty

Any thoughts on Overeem/Hunt? Reem decision has to be good odds considering the planet is predicting a KO on way or the other.

Both decisions are great value.

**KushMoney** · 03-04-17, 01:24 PM

What's with this bullshit about Khabib's dad. What world do we live in where professional fighters listen and do everything their daddy says? Who gives a shit about Khabib dad.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-17, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I also need to put a little on Kelly as the underdog. The dude is the ugliest looking fighter the UFC has but he is the exact opposite of Rashad. Slow, strong as an ox, durable as hell, and cardio for days. Rashad will likely have to beat him for 3 rounds without getting a takedown stuffed and/or having his chin tested. Worth a little stab on Kelly IMO.

Dan Kelly GOAT

**JIBBBY** · 03-04-17, 02:04 PM

After careful consideration I think Mark Hunt is gonna eventually land something.. Was originally thinking Reem sticks and moves and peppers Hunt until he gets the knock out but Reem isn't that light on his feet anymore, don't see him running for long.. I think Hunt stays patient then at some point hits Reems glass jaw...

Not confident as Hunt is planted in cement and could get kicked in the head or even dropped with punches by Reem himself early on...

My gut says Reem gets caught though.. Giving Hunt the ultimate punchers chance in this scrap I guess.

$100.00

$150.00

Pending

3/4/17 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1229 Hunt wins by TKO/KO +150* vs Any other result

**JIBBBY** · 03-04-17, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Dan Kelly GOAT

Gotta fade Rashad Evans here.. Even though he dropped down in weight Rashad hasn't looked good in fights for years now.. Should be in Bellator.. Even a bum like Kelly should beat him are my thoughts..

$200.00

$390.00

Pending

3/4/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Daniel Kelly +195* vs Rashad Evans

but I'm not gonna get greedy as I think the thinner lighter Rashad could stick and move and wrestle his way to a decision win perhaps.. Gotta hedge it for a buck twenty just in case..

Just insurance here..

$120.00

$212.40

Pending

3/4/17 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Evans wins by 3 round decision +177* vs Not Evans by 3 round decision

.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-17, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gotta fade Rashad Evans here.. Even though he dropped down in weight Rashad hasn't looked good in fights for years now.. Should be in Bellator.. Even a bum like Kelly should beat him are my thoughts..

$200.00

$390.00

Pending

3/4/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Daniel Kelly +195* vs Rashad Evans

but I'm not gonna get greedy as I think the thinner lighter Rashad could stick and move and wrestle his way to a decision win perhaps.. Gotta hedge it for a buck twenty just in case..

Just insurance here..

$120.00

$212.40

Pending

3/4/17 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Evans wins by 3 round decision +177* vs Not Evans by 3 round decision

.

Looks like we're seeing a lot of these the same way.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-17, 02:28 PM

UFC 209 Woodley vs. Thompson II Picks:
Albert Morales Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Paul Craig Round 1 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Mark Godbeer Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Iuri Alcantara Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mirsad Bektic Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcin Tybura Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Mark Hunt Round 1 Walkoff KO (Punch)
Cynthia Calvillo Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Daniel Kelly Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
David Teymur Round 2 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Tyron Woodley Round 1 KO (Punch)