Really kicking myself for getting in early on these. Right now I've lost value to line movement at my book on every play except Godbeer (no movement) and Alcantara (slight movement in my favor). The Elkins line has me really perplexed. I could NEVER lay -600 on Bektic in this spot. Elkins is too damn tough. Is there something I don't know going on with Elkins? I thought he was worth a fraction of a unit at +295, and now he's at +450 but I don't want to commit any more to him. I don't think he will win but I think he has a much better shot than the line suggests.
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I have a theory that Vannata has a six minute gas tank. Super excited to see Teymur against him. That fight should be absolute fire.Comment -
This line is absolutely out of control. Had to try it for an 80 spot right now.. Elkins might lose this fight but damn I still think he has a better chance then these odds represent..
$80.30 $441.70 Pending 3/4/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Darren Elkins +550* vs Mirsad Bektic
Not alot of gifs out their for Darren Elkins
Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-02-17, 02:09 AM.Comment -
Part 2 -MMAMANIA part 1.. Short previews...
205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Tyson Pedro
Paul Craig (9-0) dominated the British circuit from 2013 to 2015, stopping seven opponents in the first round and one 42 seconds into the second. He needed a bit more time against Luis Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut, but nonetheless walked away with a submission win and a "Performance of the Night" bonus.
"Bearjew" owns eight professional wins by submission, including three via triangle.
Australia’s Tyson Pedro (5-0) made short work of his first four opponents, finishing each in 3:05 or less. This set up a UFC bout with Khalil Rountree, who dropped Pedro with a thunderous shot early but ultimately succumbed to his grappling prowess.
His last three wins have come by rear-naked choke.
This one basically comes down to wrestling. Craig is slicker and far more proven on the mat, but he’s not a great takedown artist. Pedro consistently puts people on their backs, but he’s fought just two people with winning records.
I think I’ve got to go with experience here. Craig has faced quality grapplers like Karl Moore and -- even if he didn’t always stuff the takedown -- found the submission with impressive regularity. Expect Pedro’s aggressive wrestling to work against him as Craig puts him away with either a guillotine or triangle.
Prediction: Craig by first-round submission
115 lbs.: Amanda Cooper vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Claudia Gadelha’s third Strawweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, Amanda Cooper (2-2) defeated Jamie Moyle and Lanchana Green to reach the Finale. Though she lost to teammate Tatiana Suarez once there, she pushed her professional record back up to .500 last November with a decision over Anna Elmose.
She is an inch shorter and four years younger than Cynthia Calvillo (3-0).
After a perfect (3-0) amateur career that saw her defeat current Bantamweight prospect Aspen Ladd, Calvillo picked up a pair of pro wins to earn a spot on the inaugural LFA card. There, she overpowered Montana Stewart en route to a third-round finish.
In fact, two of her three pro wins have come via technical knockout.
I ate some crow in Cooper’s last fight, but I maintain that Anna Elmose had the tools to beat her. Though Calvillo isn’t as destructive on the feet as "Panda" was, the same holds true. She’s a very effective offensive and defensive wrestler with a strong ground game to back it up.
And Cooper’s takedown defense has failed her multiple times before.
So long as Calvillo stays committed to the grappling, she should cruise to victory via either decision or late ground-and-pound stoppage.
Prediction: Calvillo via third-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Albert Morales vs. Andre Soukhamthath
Albert Morales (6-1) went right into the deep end in UFC, fighting TUF: "Latin America" winner Alejandro Perez to a draw in his debut. He then faced an even stiffer test in knockout machine Thomas Almeida, who put him away with strikes in the second round.
He has ended five of six wins inside the distance.
Andre Soukhamthath (11-3), whose name rhymes with "succotash," enters UFC with three consecutive knockouts under his belt. A brutal knee to Kody Nordby’s jaw earned him the CES Bantamweight title in March 2016, after which he avenged a loss to Kin Moy in his first title defense.
Seven of his eleven wins have come by knockout.
This has low-key "Fight of the Night" potential. Both men are powerful-but-flawed strikers with a history of brutal finishes. It’ll be close, but I’m leaning toward Soukhamthath.
"The Asian Sensation" has the same problem as Patricio "Pitbull" in that he moves his head well when attacking, but backs straight up with his head ramrod-stiff. This has gotten him tagged by lesser strikers before and could spell trouble against someone as aggressive as Morales. That said, Soukhamthath is the more crisp and effective puncher and has never been stopped. It also remains to be seen how Morales’ knockout loss will affect his confidence.
Soukhamthath ends a barnburner sometime in the second.
Prediction: Soukhamthath via second-round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Marcin Tybura vs. Luis Henrique
Marcin Tybura (14-2) entered UFC as the reigning M-1 Heavyweight Champion, a title that failed to save him from losing a decision to Timothy Johnson in his debut. He quickly erased the memory of that loss by erasing most of Viktor Pesta’s memories via head kick four months later.
Tybura, who was pulled from a bout at UFC 208 at the last minute by New York State Athletic Commission (NYSAC), has earned six wins each by knockout and submission.
Luis Henrique (10-2) saw a six-fight win streak go up in smoke in his Octagon debut, a brutal knockout loss to blue-chip prospect Francis Ngannou. He has since asserted himself as a prospect in his own right with submissions of Dmitry Smolyakov and Christian Colombo.
It’s difficult to get a good read on this fight for the sole reason that Henrique’s UFC competition has fluctuated between extremes. Ngannou is obviously a monster, but Smolyakov is atrocious and Colombo only managed a draw against Jarjis freaking Danho. Considering that "KLB" spent a good chunk of his pre-UFC days at 205, we literally have no point of reference for how he’ll fare against a solid, bottom-of-the-top-20 Heavyweight like Tybura.
Stylistically, though, I favor Tybura. He can hold his own in the wrestling and proved how dangerous he can be on the feet against Pesta. So long as he can stay busy, expect him to win enough grappling exchanges to take the decision.
Prediction: Tybura via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Mirsad Bektic vs. Darren Elkins
Long hailed as perhaps the top prospect in all of MMA, injuries have limited Mirsad Bektic (11-0) to just four fights in the last three years. He’s certainly made the most of them, at least, dominating and stopping Lucas Martins and Russell Doane in his last two appearances.
He has knocked out five professional opponents and submitted another three.
A five-fight win streak from 2011 to 2013 gave way to a 2-3 stretch that seemed to announce the end of Darren Elkins' (21-5) run as a contender. Undaunted, he’s since won three straight, including a decision over top prospect Chas Skelly at UFC 196.
He stands two inches taller than Bektic at 5’10."
If Bektic can stay healthy, he is championship material. Brutal power, relentless offense and suffocating wrestling make him a flat-out terrifying foe. If he had gotten to face Max Holloway in 2014, we’d be looking at a fundamentally different division right now. Elkins is durable and persistent enough to make even talented fighters like Skelly look pedestrian, but Bektic doesn’t share "The Scrapper’s" cardio issues and he’s much more fearsome on the feet. Bektic brutalizes Elkins for the full 15 minutes.
Prediction: Bektic via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Iuri Alcantara vs. Luke Sanders
Enormously talented but equally inconsistent, Iuri Alcantara (34-7) came up short against Frankie Saenz and Jimmie Rivera after putting together a three-fight win streak. He finally seemed to put everything together his last time out, rocking and submitting Brad Pickett at UFC 204 to earn his second consecutive post-fight bonus.
"Marajo" has knocked out and submitted thirteen opponents apiece.
Luke Sanders (11-0) smashed Jarred Mercado to become the RFA Bantamweight Champion, then dominated Terrion Ware in his first defense. In Jan. 2016, "Cool Hand Luke" stepped up on short notice and choked out Maximo Blanco in Boston, picking up Performance of the Night in the process.
This will be his first fight in almost 13 months and just his third since 2014.
There are very, very few Bantamweight fighters with the kind of raw talent Alcantara brings to the table. Like Carlos Condit, however, weak wrestling has proven his Achilles heel time and time again. That said, he admitted before the Pickett fight that he had made a commitment to improving that aspect of his game.
If he’s being honest? Watch out.
Sanders is as gritty as they come, but I’m not sure he can keep up with Alcantara’s speed and lights-out power. So long as "Marajo" can stay off of his back, he has all the tools to win big. He rocks Sanders standing and locks up something unpleasant on the mat.
Prediction: Alcantara via first-round submission
265 lbs.: Daniel Spitz vs. Mark Godbeer
The 6’7" Daniel Spitz (5-0) has been fairly efficient in his young career, stopping five of his six professional opponents in the first round. Three of those wins came by submission, while the most recent one lasted a mere six seconds before his opponent suffered an injury.
He replaces Todd Duffee on less than a month’s notice.
Mark Godbeer (11-3) rebounded from his knockout loss to Cheick Kongo with three consecutive finishes, two of which saw him earn and defend the BAMMA Heavyweight title. "The Hand of" Godbeer couldn’t keep the momentum up in his UFC debut, falling to prospect Justin Ledet in Belfast.
Nine of his 11 wins have come by form of knockout.
To get an idea of Spitz’s level of competition, his biggest win to date came last year against Cabbage. Yes, that Cabbage. I’m as surprised as you are that he’s still fighting. In terms of actual skill, Spitz has a decent one-two combination, clinch knees and the snap kick to the body that’s been in vogue recently. He is also slow as molasses -- I had to watch the Cabbage fight at double-speed just to stay interested
Godbeer’s a fairly bog-standard slugger, but I’m not convinced that Spitz can handle bog-standard sluggers. He thumps the big man sometime in the first.
Prediction: Godbeer via first-round technical knockoutComment -
Some of my chalky bets
Nurm -125 win 700
Bektic -350 and -400 win 1000
Thompson -120 win 1000
Vanatta -250 win 1000
Evans -190 win 1000Comment -
#WraslersRule
Keep this in mind when capping.
MN State tounry
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True that Bigday but wrestlers don't rule and start losing fight after fight when they stop using their wrestling.. Just ask Josh Koscheck and Rashad Evans about that..Comment -
I agree, refs are quicker to stand up fighters these days when it's just a lay and pray and when wrestlers are not trying to advance positions.. Each take down is taxing on the cardio too.. This doesn't bod well for GSP and his comeback...
Wrestlers are still dominate though..Comment -
For sure....defensive wrestling is the KEY these days.....you have good TDD...you can expose the fighter with no standupI agree, refs are quicker to stand up fighters these days when it's just a lay and pray and when wrestlers are not trying to advance positions.. Each take down is taxing on the cardio too.. This doesn't bod well for GSP and his comeback...
Wrestlers are still dominate though..Comment -
weren't those head kicks and knees? Nobody can take those shotsThe Sherdog link was to show you Hunt got KO'd 3 times in the last 3 years.. Stipe, Werdum and JDS.. His chin is going.. Here it is again.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668
Never said Hunt won't knock out Reem though.. I said it was a tough bet.. However, Reem is fully capable of kicking Hunt in the head by the way as he won't have to worry about being taken down in this fight.. I'm sure he'll let the kicks fly..... GL..
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i don't quite remember that Capt. I remember Barbosa having the upper hand and that illegal kick turned the whole fight around. It was a close fight from what i remembered. El Cuch has a ton of talent and i wouldn't take the Russian either, but to me i see some weaknesses. He does have a big heart like in his fight recently he almost got knocked out, but turned it around.Comment -
The overeem hunt reminds me of travis brown and black beast......reem keeps his distance it should be CRUISE CONTROL.....he get super tired and covers like browns.....Good Night...Comment -
I don't think its THAT off ......Bektic -400 would be my call...This line is absolutely out of control. Had to try it for an 80 spot right now.. Elkins might lose this fight but damn I still think he has a better chance then these odds represent..
$80.30 $441.70 Pending 3/4/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Darren Elkins +550* vs Mirsad Bektic
Not alot of gifs out their for Darren Elkins
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I'm honestly not sure Elkins is going to have even 10 seconds of control in this fight.Comment -
We'll see??? Elkins is looking better and more well rounded in each fight.. He is fighting a bit of a beast though in Bektic I won't argue that.. Still Elkins is a tough dude, styles are similar.. Elkins may surprise you doubters... Elkins will test Bektics cardio in this one if anything else..
I think Elkins is Bektic's biggest test to date regardless.. Besides him beating Skelly he's only had 4 UFC fights and no really big names.. Elkins has fought everyone and tougher comp then Bektic has to date.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mirsad-Bektic-59766
I would have pegged the line for Bektic to be around -165 myself and not -550....Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-02-17, 04:19 PM.Comment -
I agree that he is tough....more than people give credit for....his last loss was dias.....beast as well.....bektic fights just like him/possibly better,,,,We'll see??? Elkins is looking better and more well rounded in each fight.. He is fighting a bit of a beast though in Bektic I won't argue that.. Still Elkins is a tough dude, styles are similar.. Elkins may surprise you doubters... Elkins will test Bektics cardio in this one if anything else..
I think Elkins is Bektic's biggest test to date regardless.. Besides him beating Skelly he's only had 4 UFC fights and no really big names.. Elkins has fought everyone and tougher comp then Bektic has to date.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mirsad-Bektic-59766
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Morales stand-up game is worrisome, moreover the power rather than quantity, he was far more active in his first fight, than his opponent, and even the judges you eluded to called that a draw, and while that was definitely a travesty, if a fighter is relying on them for fight win, or a bettor to win a bet, that's just plain dumb. That said Morales power is what worries me, not that Andre has been KO'ed but...even when pacing himself Morales has pretty much everything behind his punches. Andre on the other hand while I don't find him more quick, and certainly less damaging, does have better technique, and accuracy. Morales has shown he can be wonded, and stopped, so aside from watching out for Andre's knees and elbows, he's gonna have to avoid the punches too, otherwise the asian might smell blood and go for the finish.
Andre's TD defense I find to be real problem, he does fine with single-leg attempts fending them off well, but has shown that a double-leg can ground him quite easily. Morales I would say is equally, if not more accomplished on the ground, than Andre as far as offense goes, but here's the thing. Kody Nordby could shit on both these guys in a pure wrestling match, and Andre beat him decisively. In the round that was mostly wrestling in that fight, Nordby did win, and almost locked in a choke. I don't even remember how many double-legs Nordby got on Andre, alot that is for sure, got Andre to the ground, but maintaining that was damn near impossible, Andre would find a way up and even beat him up pretty bad from the bottom at times. He split Nordby's face open while Nordby had him against the cage as well. So a guy like that who can probably out-wrestle Morales, couldn't stop Andre, or make that pay out in points niether. A flying knee settled the whole match anyway, so no judges to help there. Morales will have one thing Nordby didn't have, and that's a ground and pound to go with being on top, but this will potentially lead to 2 things of interest:
1) If Morales gets on top in the ground, he might try to posture up and drop bombs, he throws everything he's got while standing anyway, from a top position on the ground that temptation to flurry will be even stronger, if he does, he better finish it.
2) Morales just by punching himself out in a given flurry, has shown that he does as a matter o' fact have a cardio issue, and if punching can affect him that much, the energy he might have to use to get a top position on Andre, maintain it, and drop said bombs, will definitely screw his cardio all to hell.
Personally, I think Morales should stay off the mat altogether, punch and kick, this is where his advantage lies. Andre will punch, albeit slightly softer, but in close his elbows and knees show no mercy. Morales definitely has KO possibility, and should be good to go early, but this guy has punched himself out and abandoned composure of his energy in both of his fights thus far. He might be facing a debuting fighter, but by no means is he lacking experience. He's fought good wrestlers and decent strikers and come out on top. Reach will be the same, although Morales appears to have a leg reach advantage, and I do hope he will use those same beautiful kicks he did in his debut. If he does Andre has a rough fight ahead of him. Though I still think his cardio advantage will pay off in the later rounds.Comment -
Hunt looks in pretty good shape an ready to go. I'm in.Comment -
Two fights scrapped from the main card on bellator tomorrow.
Derp.Comment -
I agree with you 100%. Khabib is over hyped and it's been a while since and over hyped fighter has had their record blemished. Math simply says Tony will win. I mean this is MMA so luck can play a big factor but I doubt it happens here
Also for those of you who saw the last fight between Wonderboy and Woodley why would you bet on Wonderboy when everyone knows Woodley won that fight without even committing 100%? Just like buying Snapchat stock for the long term, don't do it!
I feel strong about these two picks, more than 80%. Either way it's a good calculated risk.
WagerType: Date: Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET Mar 04 MU [24401] T. WOODLEY +130 (T. WOODLEY vrs S. THOMPSON) 200.00 USD / 260.00 USD 60631739
STRAIGHT BET Mar 04 MU [24405] T. FERGUSON +155 (T. FERGUSON vrs K. NURMAGOMEDOV) 200.00 USD / 310.00 USD 60631740Comment -
Woodley did everything he could in order to win and wonder boy was so timid and woodley still couldn't finish it. A different thompson will come out this time for sure. He's gonna come out striking and being more assertive. I still score that first fight a tie if you score how the judges are supposed to score. Although woodley did more damage. I think woodley could win easy if he keeps him on the ground like round 1 first fight but he knows he can knock him out so he likes to trade. Got wonderboy by decision hereComment -
I'm coming around to Ferguson here. If Khabib can't finish him relatively early on, I just don't know how he doesn't wilt under the enormous pressure and output of Tony. I'm finding it hard to be objective in capping this fight though because I'm too excited for it.Comment -
Woodley vs Thompson - bottom line is Woodley came close to finishing Wonderboy, and Wonderboy never came close to finishing Woodley.. I think Woodley finishes Thompson in this rematch..
Probably by KO but I didn't wanna get greedy.. T-Wood gets this I think..
$100.00 $380.00 Pending 3/4/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Woodley wins inside distance +380* vs Not Woodley inside distance Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-02-17, 11:45 PM.Comment -
- The more and more I see people on Ferguson, the more and more I think Khabib is starting to become seriously underrated and potentially undervalued.Comment -
Think Woodley catches him early too.Woodley vs Thompson - bottom line is Woodley came close to finishing Wonderboy, and Wonderboy never came close to finishing Woodley.. I think Woodley finishes Thompson in this rematch..
Probably by KO but I didn't wanna get greedy.. T-Wood gets this I think..
$100.00 $380.00 Pending 3/4/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Woodley wins inside distance +380* vs Not Woodley inside distance Comment
